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Pivot to the east. Russia’s transport policy

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia’s transport policy

As a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has been ongoing since 2014, and the ensuing Western sanctions, Russia has reoriented its foreign trade towards the East. This is a permanent shift which stems from Russia’s security objectives. Therefore, the Kremlin aims to further reduce Russia’s dependence on economic ties with Europe and to intensify cooperation with Asian countries. The reorientation of trade and the necessity to prioritise deliveries for the military have become serious challenges for the country’s transport sector. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the primary role of freight transport infrastructure is to ensure the diversification of export routes, particularly for energy resources. Consequently, the government has prioritised projects to expand the country’s railway and port networks in the Russian Far East and the border infrastructure with China. Nevertheless, Russia is striving to develop all alternative transport routes leading directly to the countries of the Global South, including the North–South Corridor and the Northern Sea Route.

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Winning the war with Russia is still possible. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine aims to subjugate or destroy Ukraine, overturn the current political and security order in Europe, and fundamentally revise the global order. The conflict is systemic in nature and will continue as long as the dictatorial Putin regime operates in Moscow. Although Russia has not achieved its strategic goals, it is not giving up on its aggressive plans. The key issue is to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war and, in the long run, to change its regime. Actions should include a short-term accumulation of pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine to enable Kyiv’s counteroffensive and a ceasefire on favourable terms. The pause in the war should be used in the medium term to weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine. A long-term confrontation between the West and Russia in the political, economic, and security fields should lead to Moscow’s strategic defeat. This requires further consolidation of the community of Western states, acceptance of its goals by societies, and the construction of a global coalition of states defending the basic principles of the international order.

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The unfinished de-russification. The remnants of energy ties between the EU and Russia

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Krzysztof Dębiec,Michał Kędzierski,Filip Rudnik,Andrzej Sadecki,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: de-russification; EU; Russia

The launch of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine and its economic war with the West have led to an unprecedented reduction in the European Union’s energy ties with Moscow. Brussels has proven more willing than many expected to shift away from importing Russian energy resources, as evidenced by sanctions imposed on imports of oil and petroleum products. During the gas crisis, the EU demonstrated its resolve to diversify its gas supply at an unprecedented pace, largely replacing the sharply declining volumes from Russia. Diversification efforts are ongoing, encompassing both energy resources and power supply networks. Following the successful emergency wartime synchronisation of Ukraine with the European power grid, the Baltic states plan to disconnect from the Russian system in February 2025.Despite these achievements and the political goal of fully ending hydrocarbon imports from Russia, energy ties with this country have not been reduced to the same extent across all EU member states. The ongoing war renders these dependencies a risk factor for both those individual states and the Union as a whole. This is particularly evident in Central Europe, where most countries in the region still largely rely on Russian gas and oil. Since July, issues have emerged with some Russian oil deliveries, with gas transit through Ukraine likely to cease at the beginning of 2025. Russia also remains a significant player in the European and global nuclear fuel supply chain, with its companies still holding assets within the EU refinery infrastructure.

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Russia after two years of full-scale war. Fragile stability and growing aggressiveness

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk,Miłosz Bartosiewicz,Katarzyna Chawryło,Maria Domańska,Marek Menkiszak,Witold Rodkiewicz,Filip Rudnik,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

The Putin regime remains stable, but this state of affairs is fragile. The Kremlin has toughened its neo-totalitarian course in domestic policy, its propaganda and government officials depict war as the natural state for both society and the state, and aggressive militarism forms the basis of indoctrination. GDP has grown, driven by war-related spending, but the power of the factors causing this growth have been diminishing. Passing the costs of the war on to business and society may lead to internal tensions. The Russian armed forces have sustained heavy losses during the two years of the invasion, but they still have considerable potential for mobilisation and are in a state of constant expansion, particularly in the western strategic direction. Foreign policy has been subordinated to the immediate goal of transforming Ukraine into a truncated entity with limited sovereignty. At the same time, Russia has moved to destroy the post-Cold War order in Europe & the wider world, and to confront the West head-on. It has stepped up its efforts to secure maximum support from those countries which are in conflict with the West, such as China, Iran and North Korea, and to ensure that countries in the Global South remain neutral. The attitude of the West and the outcome of the war in Ukraine, which may be decided over the next year or so, will be crucial for Russia’s internal stability and its ability to pursue its aggressive external objectives.

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The Middle Corridor. A Eurasian alternative to Russia

Author(s): Konrad Popławski,Sandra Baniak,Adam Michalski,Marcin Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Middle Corridor

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has now been ongoing for almost two years, is not only leading to significant political re-evaluations, but is also bringing with it significant transformations in Eurasian transport routes. One of the biggest beneficiaries of this process is the Middle Corridor, which bypasses Russia. It runs from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and then one of several branches leads directly into the EU. Prior to February 2022, this route was being developed by the transit countries, but they did not have the know-how, financial resources or political support from external actors which was needed. After the Russian invasion, there has been a significant increase in getting involved in the Middle Corridor – not just from the EU or the US, but also from Beijing and global logistics corporations. It will have potentially significant consequences for the South Caucasus and Central Asian states in particular.This report examines the potential for the development of the Middle Corridor, analyses the positions of the various actors involved, and describes the long-term political implications of making the route more efficient.

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Between hope and illusion. Germany’s migration policy

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany’s migration policy

The surge in asylum applications in a situation when the state is taking care of more than 800,000 refugees from Ukraine has led to a multi-faceted crisis in Germany. Like the previous migration crisis in 2015, disputes between the federal states and the federation over funding have arisen, and the local authorities responsible for providing shelter and care to asylum seekers do not have enough places for them. However, the much more serious challenge to Germany’s political elite involves the loss of the public’s confidence in the state, combined with a prevailing conviction that the government has lost control of migration policy in its broadest sense. The fact that Germany’s leaders are constantly making demands of their citizens, combined with the immigrants’ insufficient integration into German society, have triggered public resistance. As a consequence, support for the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) party has been on the rise. At present, the AfD is the second most popular party after the Christian Democrats in polls conducted at the federal level, and it is now the most popular party in the eastern federal states, where its level of support is running at over 30%. The mounting economic crisis may further exacerbate the situation, and if this happens the authorities will face problems regarding the distribution of wealth and resources to citizens and asylum seekers.

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The calm after the storm. Russia following Prigozhin’s mutiny

Author(s): Russian Department OSW's / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Prigozhin

Although Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny was the most serious manifestation of internal instability in Russia in several decades, ultimately it failed to undermine Vladimir Putin’s position in the system. The death of the Wagner Group’s leader in a plane crash on 23 August 2023, which bore the hallmarks of a public execution, has restored the stability of the regime, which had been temporarily lost.

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Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż,Kamil Frymark,Michał Kędzierski,Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Zeitenwende

The Zeitenwende, the ‘new era’ in German policy which Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, is usually associated with a radical U-turn in the areas of energy and security. However, these connotations are imprecise at least on two levels. Firstly, over time it has turned out that the shift in Germany’s political strategy has not been so decisive, as can be seen in the steps that have been taken with regard to the reform of the Bundeswehr. Secondly, the SPD-Greens-FDP government wants the Zeitenwende to encompass many other key areas of politics and the economy.

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Focused on survival. The Belarusian political and business elite post-2020

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian politica elite

The marginalisation of the civilian segment of the state apparatus at all levels of government which has been ongoing since 2020 is to the advantage of the state security sector which at present forms the main internal pillar of Lukashenka’s rule. This marginalisation has been the main trend impacting on the situation in the Belarusian ruling camp. It has become a priority for Minsk to maintain the country’s stability through the far-reaching control of citizens. The fact that politics has been dominated by the siloviks has led to an unprecedented increase in the oppressiveness of the regime, and in a decrease in the efficiency of the state apparatus as a whole. At the same time, other areas of government activity, such as the economy, society and culture, have receded into the background. Proponents of liberal or at least more flexible solutions, for their part, choose not to show any initiative, fearing the consequences. Instead, they try to adapt to the current policy of ideological indoctrination and repression and to a restrictive model of a centrally planned economy.

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Forward into the past. Russia’s politics of memory in the service of ‘eternal’ authoritarianism

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

The Kremlin's vision of the past is becoming increasingly ideologised. This applies especially to the notion of victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, which has become a kind of a founding myth of Putinism. The historical narrative is intended to legitimise the authoritarian system of government as being optimal for Russia, and thus to perpetuate the model of state-society relationship that serves the Kremlin’s interests. Its important function is to justify Moscow's aggressive foreign policy in the twenty-first century and its ambitions to influence the international order, including the European security architecture.This report raises a number of questions. How does the regime guard the ‘canonical’ vision of the past? Why is popular culture one of the most effective tools for shaping minds in a militarised and authoritarian manner? Why do Russians view Stalin more and more favourably, and how does it correspond with the fact that more and more young people are eager to research the difficult history of their families, communities and hometowns? How does the Internet help? In search of answers, the authors examine both the activity of the state and the changes in the mentality of Russian citizens.

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Russias Belarusian army. The practical aspects of Belarus and Russia's military integration

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian army; Russia

In the 2010s, Minsk lost the remnants of its independent defence capabilities and completely ceded the initiative to Moscow in this regard, remaining content with the appearance of sovereignty. The process of Belarusian-Russian military integration is one-sided; its aim is to adjust the military potential of Belarus to the standards and operational needs of the Russian Armed Forces in the western strategic direction. This process is now so advanced that Belarus cannot be perceived as an independent player in the regional security situation, and should now be considered an integral part of the Russian security space, and its army and arms industry as an element of the Russian instrumentation.The possible use of all or part of Belarus’s military potential will depend on Moscow’s military commitment, the next manifestation of which will be the ‘Zapad-2021’ exercise planned for September this year. From the perspective of Poland, and of NATO more broadly, this means that the actual border of Russia’s military activity is no longer at the Smolensk heights, but just a few dozen kilometres east of Białystok.

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The non-strategic partnership. Belarus-China relations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus-China relations

Relations between China and Belarus have been developing intensively over the past decade. This process has been fuelled by Beijing’s growing global ambitions as well as Minsk’s efforts to modernise the Belarusian economy and to partially reduce its dependence on Moscow. Given China’s great economic potential and desire to develop cooperation, it became the main non-European partner for Minsk at the beginning of the 21st century. Beijing decided to use Minsk’s great openness to cooperation and turned Belarus into an important laboratory for the Belt and Road Initiative, which was presented as one of the greatest successes of Xi Jinping’s flagship project. However, the two sides had quite different expectations as to the principles of their cooperation. In turn, the extremely ambitious visions were not filled with real content. The development of relations with China has not led to a structural transformation of the Belarusian economy. Instead, its trade deficit and foreign debt have increased. As a result, along with the growing disappointment with cooperation with Minsk, the Chinese administration and experts are again showing increasing interest in Ukraine, which is considered a much more attractive economic partner.

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The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk,Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany's climate policy

For years, Germany has claimed to be the leader of global climate policy and has continued to raise the issue of global warming on the international forum. All over the world, Germany is associated with the transition to renewable energy sources. The German word for this transition, Energiewende, has become a permanent entry in the glossary of terms used by energy experts. Since the last decade, Germany’s ambitious goals and its ‘green’ image have increasingly clashed with numerous problems faced by this transition. Measures carried out by successive governments were inconsistent with what had initially been declared. The German authorities lacked the determination to implement solutions which could potentially undermine the interests of influential industrial, business and social groups. Germany’s cautious attitude to the EU’s climate policy reform resulted in it being referred to as a ‘brake’ on the progress of this policy. Instead of positioning itself as an active leader, Berlin took up the inconvenient role of an actor responding to external initiatives.A sine qua non for Germany to be able to maintain its lead in international climate policy will involve it regaining its credibility as the leader of actions to combat global warming. This can only happen once Germany resolves its problems with Energiewende and embarks on a path to emissions reduction in line with the adopted targets.

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Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: 5G network; Russia

The digital transformation has become one of the Russian government’s economic priorities during Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term. At its core has been the development of ICT infrastructure, and especially the deployment of fifth-generation mobile networks (5G). The development of the digital sector has been dominated by security issues, which are seen as more important than technical or financial efficiency. It is expected that Russia’s 5G infrastructure will rely on Russian technologies, software and devices, and state bodies have been heavily involved in its implementation. As a result of a fierce rivalry between the main actors vying to influence the course of the digital transformation, its master plan is still in the process of being formulated. As regards the 5G network, the dispute centres on two issues: the choice of the operator market model (with the government opting for an infrastructure monopoly) and the choice of radio frequencies (with the security agencies opposing the release of the most prospective bands).

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Opposites put together. Belarus's politics of memory

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus's politics

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014 became a turning point in Belarus’s historical narrative and forced the regime to emphasise Belarusian distinctiveness from Russia more than before. The activation of the politics of memory, which had previously been conducted in a very conservative manner, became one of the key tools to accomplish this task. In order to strengthen the foundations of an independent Belarus, the government began to highlight the elements of the past that point towards an independent path for national development, and which at the same time allow for Russian dominance to be weakened. Changes have been manifested by reaching beyond the framework of the Soviet tradition to a greater extent and more frequent references to events that had previously been ignored or distorted. The government resorted to the historical narrative of the opposition and independent historians, which it had formerly opposed, yet this shift was carried out very cautiously. The process of shaping the politics of memory is not yet complete and is likely to evolve further in the coming years. Both the direction and the pace of change will depend on the nature of the political regime and its evolution.

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Nine dashes. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South China Sea

Territorial disputes occur in the South China Sea, which is a major hot spot in East Asia and to a large degree also globally. Due to its fundamental importance for global maritime transport, its natural resources and its strategic location, the South China Sea has become an area of interest for the world’s greatest powers. Although the importance of the South China Sea cannot be overestimated, territorial disputes affecting it have remained unsettled since the end of World War II. Since its establishment, People’s Republic of China has sustained its territorial claims to a major part of the South China Sea and, since the 1970s, it has been making active attempts to impose its jurisdiction over the region. This is accompanied by China challenging and ignoring international legal regulations in an unprecedented manner. For China, achieving domination in the South China Sea is a means of proving its superpower status. It is also one of many elements of China’s rivalry with the US for supremacy in East Asia. As a consequence, China is provoking not only the region’s states but most importantly the US and its allies to action. For these states, curbing China’s attempts is tantamount to defending both international law and their credibility as the guarantors of the international order. Since the beginning of the 2010s, the dispute has been mounting in proportion to the deepening political and economic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic is lending this conflict a new dynamic.

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The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Caucasus; Nagorno-Karabakh

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the ‘mother’ of all post-Soviet conflicts. It is the oldest of them, it involves the largest number of actors (including mediators and intermediaries), and also covers the most dimensions: military, political, economic and social. The Karabakh issue has come to dominate the post-Soviet history of Armenia and Azerbaijan, shaping their modern statehoods; left a lasting mark on the region, including its transport infrastructure; and has become an instrument of control over the South Caucasus for Russia. Despite the fact that the present significance of the conflict has decreased since the wars in Georgia and Ukraine, it remains an important element of politics at the junction of post-Soviet Eurasia and the Middle East. Each decision made in this connection will set a certain standard for the area of the former USSR and for Moscow's relations with the former Soviet republics.A possible new war would violate the security system in this part of the world. Such a scenario is unlikely, but not unrealistic. It is made more likely by the fact that the current state of political suspension does not represent a ‘freezing’ of the conflict, but is rather a form of ‘stable instability’: armed incidents occur every day, and people are killed regularly.This report is intended as a handy compendium of the conflict. It has been produced more than 30 years after its outbreak and over 25 years since the end of the Karabakh war. It describes its changing dynamics over time, the interests of the participants and external actors, the course of the peace process, the current state of affairs, and the prospects for the future.

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Endangered heritage. Polish cultural goods in Ukraine and Belarus

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Polish cultural; Ukraine; Belarus

As a result of the changes of borders in the 20th century, a large proportion of Poland’s cultural heritage found itself on the territory of present-day Belarus and Ukraine. Over the centuries, many cultural goods were created on the erstwhile eastern territories of Poland which the contemporary Polish state, like the other two countries, considers part of its national heritage. This consists mainly of architectural and artistic monuments, archives, libraries and cemeteries. It is difficult to determine in detail how much of the Polish cultural heritage created before 1945 remained in Belarus and Ukraine, but certainly without it, the history of Polish culture and knowledge about it cannot be complete. In fact, no other countries in the world (except Lithuania) are as important to the Polish cultural heritage as Ukraine and Belarus.This report gives a comprehensive overview of issues related to Polish cultural goods in Belarus and Ukraine. It discusses the significance of the cultural assets located within the territories of these two countries in the context of preserving the heritage of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, while also presenting the state of their preservation and how it is perceived by the respective authorities and societies. The publication also contains an analysis of Poland's activities towards Polish cultural goods in Belarus and Ukraine over the past three decades and a discussion of issues related to cataloguing cultural assets, the extent of financial commitment to their restoration, as well as the organisation of the Polish public institutions responsible for the activity in this field. The final part of the report includes recommendations concerning some possible solutions and potential directions of policy that Poland could try to implement in the subsequent years.

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A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Defence Union

Since 2016, efforts to increase cooperation in the EU’s security and defence policy have accelerated. New initiatives have been undertaken in the military, industrial and civilian dimensions under the label of a European Defence Union. So far, nothing indicates that the enhanced cooperation of the EU member states will lead to an integration of their defence policies or to building an alternative to NATO. The new EU instruments, even if they are actively used by the member states, will to only a small extent increase European military capabilities, lead to innovation in the European defence industry or improve the capacity of the military and civilian crisis management missions. This report presents and analyses the EU’s instruments, as well as the opportunities and challenges they present to those EU member states that form NATO’s eastern flank at the same time.

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Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

Pivot to the east. Russia’s transport policy

Winning the war with Russia is still possible. The West’s counter-strategy towards Moscow

The unfinished de-russification. The remnants of energy ties between the EU and Russia

Russia after two years of full-scale war. Fragile stability and growing aggressiveness

The Middle Corridor. A Eurasian alternative to Russia

Between hope and illusion. Germany’s migration policy

The calm after the storm. Russia following Prigozhin’s mutiny

Making up for lost time. Germany in the era of the Zeitenwende

Focused on survival. The Belarusian political and business elite post-2020

Forward into the past. Russia’s politics of memory in the service of ‘eternal’ authoritarianism

Russias Belarusian army. The practical aspects of Belarus and Russia's military integration

The non-strategic partnership. Belarus-China relations

The leader is gasping for breath. Germany's climate policy

Digitalisation under surveillance. The development of the 5G network in Russia

Opposites put together. Belarus's politics of memory

Nine dashes. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea

The Gordian knot of the Caucasus. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

Endangered heritage. Polish cultural goods in Ukraine and Belarus

A European Defence Union. The EU's new instruments in the area of security and defence