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Publisher: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia

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The myth of the Great Patriotic War as a tool of the Kremlin’s great power policy
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The myth of the Great Patriotic War as a tool of the Kremlin’s great power policy

The myth of the Great Patriotic War as a tool of the Kremlin’s great power policy

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Soviet Union; Great Patriotic War; political history; Russian state today; politics of memory; power; Soviet history; military history; war mythology; international relations; 1930s;

The sacralised Soviet victory over Nazism is a central element of the politics of memory, as utilised by the Russian state today. It constitutes an important theme in the Kremlin’s ideological offensive that is intended to legitimise Russia’s great-power ambitions. The messianic myth of saving the world from absolute evil is supposed to cover up the darker chapters of Soviet history and to legitimise all subsequent Soviet or Russian wars and military interventions, starting with Hungary, through Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan and ending with Ukraine and Syria. According to the current neo-Soviet interpretation, all these military actions were purely defensive and justified by external circumstances. The glorification of the “Yalta order” and the justification of the use of force in foreign policy is intended to legitimise Moscow’s pursuit of its current strategic aims, first and foremost of these being hegemony in the post-Soviet area and revision of the European security architecture. The war mythology and Russia’s great-power ambitions continue to resonate with the wider Russian public; thus contributing to legitimisation of the authoritarian regime in the eyes of a large swathe of society and offsetting the effect of growing socio-economic problems. The myth of a wartime ‘brotherhood of arms’ has a smaller impact on other post-Soviet states, which have increasingly been distancing themselves – especially since 2014 – from Moscow’s neo-imperial historical narrative. The use of historical myths as a form of soft power finds even less resonance in Europe and the US. Nevertheless, low susceptibility in the West to Russian historical propaganda does not diminish the gravity of the challenge posed by Russian information-psychological warfare, resorting to historical falsehoods and specious analogies between the current international situation and political-military tensions of the 1930s.

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The myth of the Great Patriotic War as a tool of the Kremlin’s great power policy
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The myth of the Great Patriotic War as a tool of the Kremlin’s great power policy

Mocarstwowy mit wojny we współczesnej polityce zagranicznej Kremla

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Soviet Union; Great Patriotic War; political history; Russian state today; politics of memory; power; Soviet history; military history; war mythology; international relations; 1930s;

Sakralizacja sowieckiego zwycięstwa nad nazizmem stanowi centralny element rosyjskiej polityki historycznej i jeden z wątków w ofensywie ideologicznej obliczonej na legitymizację współczesnych ambicji mocarstwowych Rosji. Mesjanistyczny mit zbawienia świata od absolutnego zła ma wybielać bądź unieważniać ciemne karty historii Związku Sowieckiego oraz legitymizować wszystkie późniejsze wojny, łącznie z interwencjami wojskowymi na Węgrzech, w Czechosłowacji czy Afganistanie, aż do udziału we współczesnych konfliktach – agresji przeciwko Ukrainie i interwencji w Syrii. Zgodnie ze współczesną, neosowiecką wykładnią wszystkie one miały charakter defensywny i były uzasadnione zewnętrznym kontekstem. Faktyczna apoteoza ładu jałtańskiego i usprawiedliwianie przemocy w polityce międzynarodowej mają służyć realizacji współczesnych interesów strategicznych Moskwy, do których należą przede wszystkim hegemonia na obszarze posowieckim i przebudowa europejskiej architektury bezpieczeństwa. Mitologia wojenna i ambicje mocarstwowe są wciąż nośne w społeczeństwie rosyjskim i pomagają legitymizować autorytarny reżim mimo pogłębiających się problemów społeczno-ekonomicznych. W mniejszym stopniu mit wojennego „braterstwa broni” oddziałuje na kraje posowieckie, coraz bardziej dystansujące się – zwłaszcza po 2014 r. – od neoimperialnej narracji historycznej Moskwy. W najmniejszym stopniu historyczna soft power Kremla znajduje oddźwięk w Europie i USA, co nie umniejsza wagi stojących przed Zachodem wyzwań związanych z prowadzoną tam przez Rosję wojną informacyjno-psychologiczną opartą na falsyfikowaniu historii i konstruowaniu paraleli między współczesną polityką międzynarodową i napięciami lat trzydziestych XX wieku.

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Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal
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Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal

Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; gas transit; Russian-Ukrainian relations; negotiations; political protocol; international agreement;

A five-year contract concerning Russian gas transit via Ukraine was signed after four days of negotiations on 30 December 2019. The previous contract expired on 1 January 2020. The EU-brokered talks between Moscow and Kyiv preceding the deal lasted many months and ended in the signing of a political protocol on 20 December which defined the terms of a package agreement. Gazprom has been obliged under the new transit contract to transport 65 bcm of gas in the first year and 40 bcm in the next years based on the ship-or-pay formula. Four other documents were also signed: (1) an agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom waiving counterclaims linked to the gas contracts of 2009; (2) an interconnection agreement between Gazprom and a company named Operator of the Gas Transmission System of Ukraine (OGTSU); (3) a settlement between Gazprom and the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine; (4) a transport agreement between Naftogaz and OGTSU. The Russian company had to pay US$2.92 billion in damages under the Stockholm Arbitration Court’s ruling before the documents could be signed; it did this on 27 December.

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Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal
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Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal

Tymczasowa stabilizacja: porozumienie gazowe Rosja–Ukraina

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś,Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; gas transit; Russian-Ukrainian relations; negotiations; political protocol; international agreement;

Po czterodniowych rosyjsko-ukraińskich negocjacjach 30 grudnia br. podpisany został pięcioletni kontrakt na tranzyt rosyjskiego gazu przez Ukrainę (dotychczasowy kontrakt wygasa 1 stycznia 2020 r.). Zostało to poprzedzone wielomiesięcznymi negocjacjami między Moskwą a Kijowem przy udziale Komisji Europejskiej, zakończonymi 20 grudnia podpisaniem politycznego protokołu, który określił warunki porozumienia pakietowego. Kontrakt tranzytowy nakłada na Gazprom obowiązek przesyłu 65 mld m³ gazu w pierwszym roku i 40 mld m³ w kolejnych latach zgodnie z formułą ship-or-pay. Podpisano również cztery inne dokumenty: (1) porozumienie pomiędzy Naftohazem a Gazpromem w sprawie rezygnacji z wzajemnych roszczeń związanych z umowami gazowymi z 2009 r.; (2) umowę o współpracy międzyoperatorskiej między Gazpromem a spółką pn. Operator Systemu Gazociągów Transportowych Ukrainy (OGTSU); (3) ugodę między Gazpromem a Ministerstwem Sprawiedliwości Ukrainy; (4) umowę transportową między Naftohazem a OGTSU. Warunkiem zawarcia tych dokumentów było wypłacenie przez rosyjski koncern 2,92 mld dolarów odszkodowania zgodnie z wyrokiem Trybunału Arbitrażowego w Sztokholmie, co nastąpiło 27 grudnia.

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The state’s weakened immunity The causes of the measles outbreak in Ukraine
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The state’s weakened immunity The causes of the measles outbreak in Ukraine

The state’s weakened immunity The causes of the measles outbreak in Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: measles virus infections in Ukraine; Ukrainian health-care;

According to data compiled by the World Health Organization, since 2018 Ukraine has had the world’s second highest number of measles virus infections. A major increase in the number of individuals infected with measles has been recorded since 2017, when 4,782 cases of measles were diagnosed (in 2016 the corresponding number was a mere 90). In 2018, more than 54,000 infections were recorded, which accounted for more than 64% of all measles cases diagnosed across Europe. In 2019, the situation deteriorated even further. Ukraine’s Ministry of Health estimates that between January and November 2019 more than 57,000 individuals contracted measles. Altogether, in 2017–2019 in Ukraine more than 115,000 individuals caught measles and 41 of them died (including 25 children). || The main reason behind the rapid surge in the incidence rate is the low measles vaccination rate resulting from the crisis in the Ukrainian healthcare sector and from the spread of disinformation regarding the alleged adverse effects of vaccines and their ineffectiveness. This has caused the proportion of infants vaccinated against measles to fall to 42% in 2016, with the corresponding proportion recorded for children aged six and younger being 31%; these were among the world’s lowest vaccination rates. Measures taken by the Ministry of Health have resulted in a major increase in the vaccination rate in Ukrainian society and a reduction in the related epidemiological threat. A major problem continues to be posed by the illegal trade in fake vaccination certificates, which emerged as a result of a powerful anti-vaccination campaign on the Internet and of citizens’ distrust of state healthcare institutions. As a consequence, measles continues to be one of the biggest challenges faced by the state’s health policy.

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Defying America. Russia’s policy towards Iran
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Defying America. Russia’s policy towards Iran

Defying America. Russia’s policy towards Iran

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Persian Gulf; Russia-Iran-relations; Southern Caucasus; JCPOA;

Russia’s relations with Iran are almost entirely based on geopolitical considerations. The Russian elite perceives Iran as an essential, albeit difficult partner, with whom it shares a number of interests; a partner who understands the language of power politics, and has demonstrated a willingness to seek pragmatic compromises where the interests of Moscow and Tehran diverge. The foundation of the Russian-Iranian strategic partnership is both countries’ common interest in reducing American power and influence, both in the Middle East and globally. The partnership with Iran is also important for Russia because it helps to stabilise the geopolitical situation in the south of the post-Soviet area (the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia) and minimise the influence of Western countries in the region. Since the Russian Federation began its military intervention in Syria (September 2015), Iran has become its de facto ally in its war against the armed anti-Assad opposition. Since the United States withdrew from the multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) in 2018, Russia has become a major advocate of maintaining it, and has undertaken active diplomatic efforts to persuade its Western European signatories to resume economic relations with Iran – in defiance of the American sanctions. In response to the escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States and its Arab allies in summer 2019, Russia has provided diplomatic and propaganda support for Iran. It has also undertaken initiatives aimed at easing tensions in the region and creating a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, based on the logic of a concert of powers and limiting the importance of bilateral relations in the security sphere between the US and the region’s Arab monarchies.

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European strategic autonomy or European pillar in NATO? Germany’s stance on French initiatives
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European strategic autonomy or European pillar in NATO? Germany’s stance on French initiatives

European strategic autonomy or European pillar in NATO? Germany’s stance on French initiatives

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Emmanuel Macron; European autonomy; Europe’s collective security; NATO;

In February this year, at the École de Guerre in Paris and at the Munich Security Conference, France’s President Emmanuel Macron again reiterated the need to strengthen European autonomy in foreign and security policy and presented yet another proposal in this area. This time he offered to launch a strategic dialogue on the role of the French nuclear deterrence in Europe’s collective security. Although the proposal is addressed to all of France’s European partners, the most important response will come from Germany. Official reactions in Berlin have so far been consistent with the German approach to French defence initiatives – Germany declared it is ready for such a dialogue but remains cautious about ist goals. Berlin does see the need to boost Europe’s role in foreign and security policy and recognises Paris as its most important partner in this field. However, Germany’s approach differs considerably from that of France. Berlin prefers to strengthen the EU’s security and defence policy and the European pillar in NATO, rather than build European strategic autonomy under French leadership. At the same time it does not necessarily have the required political will and military means to back up its own rhetoric. || With regard to nuclear deterrence Germany’s stance on the French proposal might not be the most important challenge Berlin is currently facing. The upcoming decision on the replacement of the aged German Tornado combat aircraft, able to carry nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements, might be much more significant for the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe.

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A pseudo-multi-vector policy. Moldova under the Socialists
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A pseudo-multi-vector policy. Moldova under the Socialists

A pseudo-multi-vector policy. Moldova under the Socialists

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ion Chicu; Igor Dodon; Moldawian government 2020; corruption;

In November 2019 a new government took power in Moldova under Ion Chicu as prime minister. Formally non-partisan, the new cabinet is in fact controlled by President Igor Dodon and the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM). The establishment of this government brought an end to the five-month political experiment of Maia Sandu's coalition government, which was composed of the pro-Western ACUM bloc and the Socialists. In essence, the takeover of power by the latter means a halt to any real reforms, a worsening of relations with the West, and a far smaller chance that the legal proceedings currently underway into the country's biggest corruption scandals will have a positive outcome. Also, the multi-vector foreign policy declared by the government and President Dodon, which is aimed at maintaining good relations with both Russia and the EU, will in practice increase the Kremlin's influence in Moldova.Although President Dodon has gathered quite a significant amount of power, his situation remains uncertain. He does not control the parliamentary majority, and is forced to rely on the support of the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), which has been weakened by the crisis. The main challenge for Dodon is the presidential election which is scheduled for the end of this year. However, the weak and increasingly fragmented pro-European opposition plays into the hands of Dodon and his group.

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Hybrid Quarantine. The self-proclaimed Republics of the Donbass in facing the Pandemic
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Hybrid Quarantine. The self-proclaimed Republics of the Donbass in facing the Pandemic

Hybrydowa kwarantanna. Samozwańcze republiki Donbasu wobec pandemii

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Covid-19 in Donbass;

The initial attitude of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) were disregarded in the face of the COVID-19 threat, and the first social restrictions were introduced with a delay in reaction to the actions of the authorities in Kiev and Moscow. After diagnosing the first illnesses and deaths, more decisive steps were taken, and Ukraine and the Western countries were blamed for the development of the pandemic. The ability to counter the disease largely depends on the support of Russia, which exercises full control over the occupied territories. Moscow is trying to take advantage of the situation to even greater conflict between the 'republics' and Kiev, discrediting the actions of Ukraine in the eyes of the Donbass people. In turn, the Ukrainian authorities, having insufficient funds and possibilities to provide effective aid, decided to completely isolate the para-states from the rest of the country. As a result, the development of the epidemic and subsequent restrictions will foster hostility, and thus further disintegration of Ukraine and Donbas.

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Far behind Riga: Latvia’s problems with uneven development
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Far behind Riga: Latvia’s problems with uneven development

Daleko od Rygi: łotewskie problemy niezrównoważonego rozwoju

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Latvia; Riga

Latvia’s economic situation is gradually deteriorating due to its uneven development. One of the main reasons for this is that the metropolis of Riga accounts for as much as two-thirds of the country’s economic growth. Economic and social indicators for Latvia’s regions are sometimes several times lower than those for its capital. The non-metropolitan areas are struggling with numerous problems: high unemployment, an aging population, deteriorating living standards, insufficient medical care, or a shrinking network of educational institutions. Another important fact is that local governments often function like ‘appanage principalities’. If the current trends continue, the state will continue to fall behind its neighbours Estonia and Lithuania.

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Turkey’s dream of a hub. Ankara’s wartime gas policy
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Turkey’s dream of a hub. Ankara’s wartime gas policy

Turkey’s dream of a hub. Ankara’s wartime gas policy

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Russia

Natural gas plays a key role in Turkey’s economy and energy sector, with the country’s gas consumption growing in recent years. At the same time, Turkey is fully dependent on imports of this resource, including large quantities from Russia. However, for years it has been implementing a policy of diversification, which has brought tangible results. Along this, it has been expanding its import infrastructure to diversify its gas supply sources and routes, for example by opening more LNG terminals; or by trying to start production of its own gas while curbing domestic consumption.

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The German perfect model… on credit
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The German perfect model… on credit

The German perfect model… on credit

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Russia; Ukraine

Germany is slowly recovering from the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has defined the processes that will help it to revise what had once appeared to be the perfect model of policy making and doing business. So far, it has launched reforms in the areas in which these became necessary due to the new circumstances and in which Berlin has identified the need to radically change the assumptions of its former policy. If it succeeds in building the political and social consensus to carry out all of its plans, Germany will be facing a revolution. However, this revolution will likely be painful, so the temptation to return to old well-trodden paths will be strong.

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The German perfect model on credit
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The German perfect model on credit

Niemiecki model idealny… na kredyt

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Germany; Russia; Ukraine

Germany is slowly recovering from the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has defined the processes that will help it to revise what had once appeared to be the perfect model of policy making and doing business. So far, it has launched reforms in the areas in which these became necessary due to the new circumstances and in which Berlin has identified the need to radically change the assumptions of its former policy. If it succeeds in building the political and social consensus to carry out all of its plans, Germany will be facing a revolution. However, this revolution will likely be painful, so the temptation to return to old well-trodden paths will be strong.

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Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Bogdan Zawadewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; war; Ukraine

Over the past decade, Serbia’s foreign policy has been defined by the key dilemmas it faces over the shape of the state, including the issue of Kosovo, and the desire to balance between the main actors present in the Balkans: the West, Russia and China. The Serbian ruling class have been trying to play these actors off each other and balance their influences for their own benefit and also, in part, for the benefit of the state. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly reduced their room for manoeuvre. They have come under pressure from the West, which wants Belgrade to pursue a foreign policy in line with the Western course and to limit its ties with Moscow. Despite symbolic gestures of support for the Kremlin, the Serbian government seems to be increasingly aware that Russia is decreasingly capable of protecting Belgrade’s interests. Although in some areas Moscow may be replaced by Beijing, Serbia is set to step up efforts to build closer ties with Western structures.

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Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Closer to the West? Serbia’s foreign policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Bliżej Zachodu? Polityka zagraniczna Serbii po rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę

Author(s): Bogdan Zawadewicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Serbia; wojna; Ukraina; Rosja

W ostatniej dekadzie politykę zagraniczną Belgradu determinowały kluczowe dylematy dotyczące kształtu państwa, m.in. kwestia Kosowa oraz dążenie do balansowania między głównymi aktorami obecnymi na Bałkanach – Zachodem, Rosją i Chinami. Serbskie elity starały się rozgrywać i równoważyć wpływy tych graczy w celu czerpania korzyści zarówno dla siebie, jak i – częściowo – dla państwa. Inwazja Rosji na Ukrainę istotnie zmniejsza ich pole manewru. Znalazły się one pod presją Zachodu, który chce, by Belgrad prowadził politykę zagraniczną zgodną z jego linią oraz ograniczał powiązania z Moskwą. Mimo symbolicznych gestów wsparcia wobec Kremla serbskie władze zdają się coraz bardziej świadome, że rosyjski potencjał ochrony ich interesów maleje. Choć w niektórych obszarach Moskwę może zastąpić Pekin, to ostatecznie przyspieszy i pogłębi się zbliżenie Serbii ze strukturami zachodnimi.

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New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost
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New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost

New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completed the process of identity transformation and the shaping of a Ukrainian political nation. The year of war, accompanied by an all-encompassing derussification of public life, has accelerated Ukrainians’ turn towards their native history, culture, language and symbols, seen as part of the broader European context. Both of these trends began when the country gained independence in 1991 and intensified sharply after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in the Donbas in 2014, when the state clearly defined its politics of memory and launched an all-out effort to Ukrainianise public life. At that time, the identity changes were present in a section of society, but they are now consolidating the vast majority regardless of the region, age, and language of communication. The Ukrainian people are undergoing a mental decolonisation, rejecting the belief in Russia’s supremacy and in the cultural ties that bind the two nations, and they are instead adopting an attitude of superiority towards the former hegemon. However, they are paying a high price for this as Ukraine faces a demographic slump, economic ruin, people’s impoverishment and war trauma. At the same time, the heroic struggle for sovereignty finally made citizens stop treating Ukraine as a second-rate country. The frequent pre-war criticism has been replaced by pride and belief in the country’s high development potential.

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New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost
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New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost

Nowa Ukraina – przełom świadomościowy za najwyższą cenę

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Rosja; Ukraina; wojna

Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę domyka proces przemian tożsamościowych i kształtowania się ukraińskiego narodu politycznego. Rok wojny, któremu towarzyszyła kompleksowa derusyfikacja życia społecznego, przyspieszył zwrot Ukraińców ku rodzimym historii, kulturze, językowi i symbolom wpisanym w szerszy kontekst europejski. Oba te trendy postępowały od uzyskania niepodległości w 1991 r., a znacznie nasiliły się po aneksji Krymu i wybuchu wojny w Donbasie w 2014 r., gdy państwo jasno zdefiniowało politykę pamięci i zainicjowało całościową ukrainizację życia publicznego. Zmiany tożsamościowe objęły wówczas część społeczeństwa, obecnie zaś konsolidują ogromną jego większość bez względu na region, wiek i język komunikacji. Ukraińcy przechodzą mentalną dekolonizację, odrzucając przekonanie o przewadze Rosji oraz o łączących oba narody więzach kulturowych i przyjmując postawę wyższości wobec dawnego hegemona. Płacą za to jednak wysoką cenę w postaci wyrwy demograficznej, ruiny gospodarczej, zubożenia i traumy wojennej znacznego odsetka obywateli. Heroiczna walka o suwerenność sprawia zarazem, że Ukraina przestała być przez jej społeczeństwo traktowana jako kraj drugiej kategorii. Częsty przed wojną krytycyzm zastąpiły duma i wiara w wysoki potencjał rozwojowy własnego państwa.

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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Wschodnia flanka NATO po roku wojny – mobilizacja różnych prędkości

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Rosja; Ukraina; wojna

Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę stała się bezprecedensowym wyzwaniem dla bezpieczeństwa państw wschodniej flanki NATO. Państwa bałtyckie, wyszehradzkie i czarnomorskie położone są w sąsiedztwie walczącej Ukrainy bądź bezpośrednio graniczą z agresorem. Inwazja znacząco wzmocniła postrzeganie Rosji jako zagrożenia, choć tego rodzaju percepcja była w mniejszym lub większym stopniu obecna w regionie co najmniej od aneksji Krymu w 2014 r. Kraje te są orędownikami wzmocnienia obrony zbiorowej NATO i obecności sojuszniczej na wschodniej flance. Większość z nich znalazła się w czołówce państw udzielających wsparcia politycznego i wojskowego Ukrainie. Wyraźnie wzrosła w nich waga polityki obronnej i modernizacji sił zbrojnych.

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More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine
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More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine

More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war

Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric and hostile behaviour towards the Moldovan government, in the context of its invasion of Ukraine, have led to a significant acceleration of the process of erosion of Russian influence in Moldova. Although this process has been ongoing for years, so far it has been very slow. The developments linked to the war have enabled (or actually forced) the pro-Western Moldovan government to take measures that the previous cabinets had shunned, partly out of fear of how the Kremlin might react. The most important changes have occurred in the energy sector – Russia’s significance as a supplier of gas has diminished and the influence of Russian media outlets has been reduced. Moreover, Chişinău has assumed a more assertive attitude towards Transnistria, which included adopting tougher legislation targeting the separatists and reducing the volume of gas supplied to the region. The government has also managed to launch a public debate on issues such as the legitimacy of Moldova’s membership of the CIS, the state of its armed forces and the neutrality of the Moldovan state, which is enshrined in the country’s constitution. Alongside this, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a collapse of Moldova’s trade relations with Russia and has accelerated the outflow of Moldovan economic migrants from Russia.

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More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine
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More independence, less fear. Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine

Mniej strachu – więcej niezależności. Mołdawia wobec Rosji po roku wojny

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Rosja; Ukraina; wojna

Agresywna retoryka i nieprzyjazne działania Moskwy względem Mołdawii na tle inwazji na Ukrainę doprowadziły do znacznego przyspieszenia – obserwowanego od lat, ale dotychczas bardzo powolnego – procesu osłabiania rosyjskich wpływów w tym kraju. Kontekst wojenny umożliwił prozachodnim władzom w Kiszyniowie wykonanie posunięć (a niekiedy wręcz je do nich zmusił), przed którymi poprzednie gabinety powstrzymywały się m.in. w obawie przed reakcją Kremla. Kluczowe zmiany zaszły w energetyce – udało się ograniczyć znaczenie Rosji w zakresie dostaw gazu i zredukowano wpływ tamtejszych mediów. Kiszyniów stał się też asertywniejszy wobec Naddniestrza – m.in. zaostrzył ustawodawstwo wymierzone w separatystów czy obniżył wolumeny gazu dostarczanego do tego regionu. Rządzący zdołali także rozpocząć publiczną dyskusję m.in. na temat zasadności członkostwa Mołdawii w WNP, stanu sił zbrojnych czy – zapisanej w konstytucji – neutralności państwa. Równolegle inwazja na Ukrainę doprowadziła do załamania relacji handlowych z Rosją i przyspieszyła odpływ mołdawskich migrantów zarobkowych z tego kraju.

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