Publisher: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies

№109. ‘Outsourcing’ de facto Statehood. Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

№109. 'Outsourcing’ de facto Statehood. Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

Author(s): Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

Keywords: Secessionist; conflict; Georgia; Moldova; Russia; EU; NATO;

The international community has been increasingly concerned with the secessionist conflicts that have marked the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The conflicts in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan are no longer ‘internal affairs’ of the successor states of the former Soviet Union. The EU and NATO enlargements have brought these organisations closer to the conflict areas and have increased their interest in promoting solutions to these conflicts. In the context of the international fight against terrorism, there are fears that the existence of failed states or uncontrolled areas can have repercussions far beyond their respective regions. The relative stabilisation of the Balkans will allow the EU and NATO to pay more attention to conflicts that are further away from their neighbourhood.

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№112. What should the European Union do next in the Middle East?

№112. What should the European Union do next in the Middle East?

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Middle East; Israeli-Palestinian conflict; UN Resolution 1701;

It is urgent that the EU should follow up on UN Resolution 1701 and the deployment of member states’ troops to Lebanon with a strategic diplomatic initiative aimed at the fundamental problem, namely the lack of an agreed resolution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict. The reasons for this are a mix of old and new; reasons which are rooted in the international, European and Middle Eastern domains.

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№113. Just what is this ‘absorption capacity’ of the European Union?

№113. Just what is this ‘absorption capacity’ of the European Union?

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Senem Aydin,Julia De Clerck-Sachsse,Gergana Noutcheva / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; absorption capacity; constitution;

There is a tendency in some political discourse now to say that, because the Constitution that was meant to prepare for enlargement failed to be ratified, the enlargement process has now hit a roadblock called ‘absorption capacity’. An alternative narrative is that the Constitution proposed some useful but marginal systemic changes, but its ratification was badly mismanaged by some political leaders. In the meantime, the EU has not experienced gridlock, and its current major political issues have nothing to do with enlargement. The case for a pause after the 2004 and 2007 enlargements is undeniable. EU27 will have to settle down, and sort out the constitutional imbroglio. However the plausible time horizon for any next major enlargement is many years ahead, maybe 2015, with various transitional arrangements pushing the real date in important respects beyond 2020 (e.g. for the labour market). The vague idea of ‘absorption capacity’ is better deconstructed into more precise and objective components such as the capacity of the EU’s internal market, labour market, budget, eurozone and institutional system to absorb new member states, society’s capacity to absorb immigration and the EU’s capacity for assuring its strategic security. All these issues can be discussed, but they are not static matters. Changes in public opinion may be expected to follow from new realities. The dynamics of enhancing capacities for change deserve priority attention. The ‘final frontiers’ proposition (presumably to the exclusion of both Turkey and Ukraine at the least) is a thoroughly bad idea, since there are well-established outer limits in any case to the map of Europe (e.g. Council of Europe membership) and to EU membership as in the Treaty of Rome. It would be a strategic blunder for the EU now to invent a new irreversible dividing line within this map between ‘real Europe’ and an imagined ‘other’ (uncivilised?) Europe beyond. The term ‘absorption capacity’ should be dropped from use in official texts, unless deconstructed into objective elements. Otherwise it is giving the impression of some pseudo-scientific and static reality, and plays into the hands of populist political rhetoric.

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№115. Russia’s Soft Power Ambitions

№115. Russia’s Soft Power Ambitions

Author(s): Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

Keywords: Soft power; Russia; European Union; international relations;

The European Union thinks of itself as a ‘soft power’, which is defined by Joseph Nye as the “ability to get what you want through attraction rather than through coercion” and which can “be cultivated through relations with allies, economic assistance, and cultural exchanges.” Few would think that Russia has ‘soft power’ ambitions, but the truth is that Russia has started to invest in the infrastructure of a soft power.

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№116. The Coming of the Russian Gas Deficit: Consequences and Solutions

№116. The Coming of the Russian Gas Deficit: Consequences and Solutions

Author(s): Alan Riley / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Gas; Gas deficit; EU; Energy Charter Treaty;

This paper argues that the January 2006 gas cut off in the Ukraine encouraged EU policymakers and the media to focus on the wrong Russian gas issue. The core issue for the EU is not the threat of a politically motivated gas cut off. Rather it is the prospect of Russia, through lack of investment, not being able to produce enough gas to cover Russian and EU demands. The paper considers the extent of the likely gas deficit and determines that if no action is taken by 2010 the EU may be facing a deficit close to or even beyond its current Russian gas import level. The damaging consequences of such a deficit are then outlined for Russia, the Central and Eastern European member states and the older Western EU member states. The paper goes on to argue that an over-arching liberalised market structure needs to be built in both Russia and the EU, underpinned by the strong investor protection provisions of the Energy Charter Treaty. The paper concludes by examining the short- and longerterm measures that can be deployed to close the deficit.

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№120. The Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia alongside Kosovo. The Case for Decentralisation and Minority Protection

№120. The Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia alongside Kosovo. The Case for Decentralisation and Minority Protection

Author(s): Beáta Huszka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Presevo Valley; ethnic minorities; decentralisation;

Presevo Valley gained international attention mostly due to the insurgency of local Albanians in 2000, which was also a key factor destabilising Macedonia in 2001. Situated in southern Serbia and bordering on Macedonia and Kosovo, Presevo Valley is home to Serbia’s Albanian minority. Although the Valley has been calm in the last few years and the resurgence of armed conflict is unlikely at the moment, the situation is still fragile and continues to pose a potential security threat for the wider region. As the solution to Kosovo’s status is approaching, the problems of Albanians in Presevo Valley deserve serious attention. There are two main sources of security threats: one is the potential influx of Serbian refugees, the other is Kosovo’s (hypothetical) partition. The latter could potentially lead to the outbreak of violence, as Albanians of the Valley recently declared their intention to be united with Kosovo if the Serbian villages in the North of Kosovo would join Serbia. This Policy Brief argues, however, that the Serbian government could reduce the chances of conflict by addressing some everyday problems faced by the Albanian minority, which could take the wind out of the sails of potential irredentists. Albanian grievances centre on issues such as their weak presence in the public sector, high unemployment, limited implementation of their language rights and the lack of economic development. Some of these problems could be effectively addressed through strengthening local autonomy, which could be part of the solution. It is argued here that continuation with the Covic plan, which combines decentralisation and demilitarisation, could bring about the desired stability for the region, which needs continued attention and assistance from international bodies, among them the European Union.

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№123. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the ‘gas OPEC’: What’s in the pipeline?

№123. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the ‘gas OPEC’: What’s in the pipeline?

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche / Language(s): English

Keywords: OPEC; gas; foreign energy supplies; Russian-Algerian cooperation;

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s statement to Spain’s El País that the idea of a ‘gas-OPEC’ should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin’s confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an ‘interesting one’ worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a ‘gas OPEC’. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.

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№126. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an ‘ENP plus’

№126. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an ‘ENP plus’

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Gergana Noutcheva,Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Neighborhood Policy; ENP Plus;

Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, ‘ENP plus’ could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an ‘ENP light’ model for difficult states or non-recognised entities. More precisely we suggest a 15-point programme for achieving a qualitative upgrading of the ENP, to give it strategic leverage, rather than allowing it to be seen as a poor cousin of the enlargement process.

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№129. Turkmenistan in transition. A window for EU engagement?

№129. Turkmenistan in transition. A window for EU engagement?

Author(s): Michael Denison / Language(s): English

Keywords: Niyazov; Turkmenistan; Transition; EU;

The sudden death of President Saparmurat Niyazov on 21 December 2006 has opened a window for engagement between the European Union (EU) and Turkmenistan. There appears to be a realisation across the Turkmen political elite that Niyazov’s style of policy micro-management was unsustainable and undesirable, both in terms of its immediate outcomes, and for its broader impact on political and social cohesion. Accordingly, a more balanced and collegiate form of governance is likely to develop under the new regime, with power effectively centred on a ‘junta’ of influential security officials from different clans/regions. Although formal democratisation remains a distant prospect, a sequence of economic and social changes, initiated both from above and below is likely to occur. The principal objectives of these will be to reverse Niyazov’s most idiosyncratic and unambiguously damaging policies, and to commence a process of cautious re-engagement with the outside world. What is the aim of these changes, repairing the damage of the Niazov years or something more ambitious? These reforms have the potential to be simultaneously emancipating and destabilising. Using a fusion of traditional Turkmen and Soviet techniques, paid for by gas rents, Niyazov managed to create a regime that, for over two decades, rather effectively neutralised any actual or potential sources of opposition to his rule. Without that primitive overlay, the multiplication of political actors, combined with necessary reforms to increase the role of the private sector, is likely to test the state’s institutional strength, and open new internal commercial pressures for engagement in and beyond the region.

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№130. Tajikistan and the EU. From Post-Conflict Reconstruction to Critical Engagement

№130. Tajikistan and the EU. From Post-Conflict Reconstruction to Critical Engagement

Author(s): Matteo Fumagalli / Language(s): English

Keywords: Tajikistan; EU; geopolitics;

For the European Union, the development of closer ties with Tajikistan within the context of the broader effort to forge a Strategy for the Central Asia could represent a significant opportunity. Tajikistan occupies a geographically peripheral position, but it is precisely this location outside the limelight – and therefore not so subject to the pressures of geopolitics and the struggle for energy resources that shapes much of the politics of the rest of the region – that could allow the EU to foster new forms of cooperation with the local authorities and to devise policies aimed at strengthening the Tajik state’s capacities and stability, which would significantly assist reform and development in the country. This would mean building on the encouraging developments taking place in bilateral relations and taking additional steps aimed at achieving the goals above in a more effective way.

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№133. What will it take to resolve the dispute in Western Sahara?

№133. What will it take to resolve the dispute in Western Sahara?

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche / Language(s): English

Keywords: UN; security council; Western Sahara;

After four years of diplomatic stalemate, there appeared to be some movement around the ‘frozen’ conflict in Western Sahara early in 2007, with a ‘fresh’ Moroccan proposal presented to a UN Security Council meeting on April 11th. The outcome of this submission, and its Sahrawi counterpart, was a UNSC resolution calling on: the parties to enter into negotiations without preconditions in good faith, taking into consideration the developments of the last months, with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution, which will provide for the self-determination of the people of the Western Sahara.

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№134. Democratisation and Human Rights in Central Asia: Problems, Development Prospects and the Role of the International Community

№134. Democratisation and Human Rights in Central Asia: Problems, Development Prospects and the Role of the International Community

Author(s): Eugheniy Zhovtis / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Democratisation; Human Rights; international community; CPSU;

To understand the reasons for the relative failures of the transition to democracy, the formation of a law-based state and the establishment of respect for human rights in the independent states of Central Asia today, as well as the role of the international community, one has to assess, first of all, the dynamics of the political process in this region of the world. In large part, the origins of the current weakness of democratic processes are the result of developments during the final decades of Soviet power. By the early 1990s, there arose a situation in which the ruling authorities Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), ruling authorities, realising the necessity of reform but at the same time wishing to retain power, initiated a set of reforms that employed democratic phraseology but which aimed first of all at protecting the interests of the ruling group.

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№135. What Went Wrong? The Impact of Western Policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah

№135. What Went Wrong? The Impact of Western Policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah

Author(s): Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

Keywords: western policies; EU; US; Hamas & Hizbollah; Palestine; Lebanon; Middle East;

International policies and in particular EU and US policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah have had multiple and interlocking effects in the last two years. Most visibly, western policies have impacted upon the two movements themselves, on the domestic governance systems in Palestine and Lebanon, and on the relations between Hamas and Hizbollah and their respective domestic political rivals. In turn, they have also had an impact on the conflicts between Israel and Palestine/Lebanon, and on the mediating roles of the international community. The balance sheet is far from positive. Paradoxically, western policies have often hampered the quest for international peace, democracy and good governance, as well as inter- and intra-state reconciliation. This Policy Brief offers a comparative analysis of the impact of western policies on three principal domestic and international dimensions of the Middle Eastern conundrum: the transformation and popularity of Hamas and Hizbollah, Lebanese and Palestinian governance and intra-Lebanese and Palestinian reconciliation.

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№137. Decentralisation of Serbia: The Minority Dimension

№137. Decentralisation of Serbia: The Minority Dimension

Author(s): Beáta Huszka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; decentralisation; minorities;

This policy brief argues that the decentralisation of Serbia by degating more authority to municipalities could benefit minority groups that constitute a local majority. Although there are three such minority communities living in Serbia, the Bosniaks in Sandzak, the Albanians in Presevo Valley and the Hungarians in Vojvodina, the paper focuses on the first two groups, because their problems could potentially destabilise Serbia and the wider region. Thus, addressing the root causes of tensions in these two regions is an urgent task. Moreover, not only would minorities gain from sound decentralisation – all municipalities would do so regardless of ethnicity. Ultimately, decentralisation would be an essential step in Serbia’s democratisation process, following the example of other Central and East European countries.

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№138. The EU and Uzbekistan: Where to go from here?

№138. The EU and Uzbekistan: Where to go from here?

Author(s): Michael Hall / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Uzbekistan; Karimov; Uzbek regime;

In 2005, following the suppression of the Andijon uprising, the European Union, alone among world powers, took a necessary and principled stance towards the regime of Uzbekistan’s President Islom Karimov. A visa ban was imposed on officials believed to be involved in the indiscriminate killing of mostly unarmed civilians, an embargo was placed on arms shipments to Uzbekistan and high-level bilateral relations were frozen. Now, almost two years later, the strain in relations appears to be taking its toll on both sides. The Uzbek government has made tentative overtures to the EU, and there are indications that some in the EU are willing to accept such overtures at face value in the rush to normalise relations, often citing security and energy concerns, as well as ‘progress’ in the sphere of human rights. Unfortunately, arguments that Uzbekistan can meaningfully contribute to European security – of any kind – and that the Karimov regime is willing to reform do not stand up to closer examination. While it is to be welcomed that Germany chose to make Central Asia a foreign policy priority during its Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007, any normalisation of relations must be contingent not on promises or cosmetic changes from Uzbekistan, but on concrete measures taken to improve the lives of its citizens. To accept anything less would be to commit a grave disservice to ordinary citizens, and would be devastating to the EU’s credibility.

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№139. Security Challenges in Central Asia. Implications for the EU’s Engagement Strategy

№139. Security Challenges in Central Asia. Implications for the EU’s Engagement Strategy

Author(s): Daniel Kimmage / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Security Challenges; extremism; smuggling; EU engagement;

Central Asia presents the European Union with a uniquely problematic set of security challenges. Enumerated in their most basic form, without reference to context, the challenges are formidable enough: the threat of violent extremism, a well established conduit for smuggling illegal narcotics and potential instability rife with the possibility of conflict and humanitarian catastrophe. But these challenges are not stand-alone issues that can be treated individually; they are embedded in a regional context that creates additional difficulties for engagement. Namely, while Central Asian states may share a common understanding of ‘security challenges’, that understanding differs considerably from accepted definitions within the EU. More importantly, the Central Asian states themselves have evolved in various directions since gaining independence in 1991, and it is by no means clear that a ‘regional policy’ is the most effective means by which to engage them.

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№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU policy; Western Balkans; pre-accession strategy; Eurozone; trade policy;

The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to ‘euroise’ recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level towards visa ‘liberalisation’, which means scrapping visas rather than just ‘facilitation’ measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards ‘functional membership’ of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.

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№180. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

№180. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author(s): Elena Gnedina,Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Gas transit; consortium; Ukraine; Russia; EU;

The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans- Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politically and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU-Ukraine- Russia energy triangle.

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№215. How to Change the EU Treaties. An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

№215. How to Change the EU Treaties. An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

Author(s): Peadar ó Broin / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU treaties; revision; Lisbon Treaty; European parliament;

Less than a year has passed since the Lisbon Treaty became part of EU law, thereby bringing to an end almost a decade of intergovernmental wrangling over EU institutional reform. Yet despite its protracted ratification process and pledges from national administrations and EU authorities that the Lisbon Treaty had closed the issue of treaty reform for the foreseeable future, a number of modifications to the EU treaties are currently in the pipeline. One such proposal, relating to the number of seats in the European Parliament, has already left the drawing board and is presently pending national ratification. But perhaps most significant are those proposals that could amount to major treaty reform in areas such as the Franco-German Declaration of Deauville, which proposes significant changes in the area of economic and monetary union and, possibly also institutional reform. This Policy Brief provides an overview of the procedures that are available to change the Treaty of Lisbon. A companion piece looks at the political issues raised by the debate on a substantive treaty change that is currently underway.

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№216. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon treaty revision(s)

№216. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon treaty revision(s)

Author(s): Piotr Maciej Kaczyński,Peadar ó Broin / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lisbon Treaty; Deauville Declaration; ratification;

It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process. This paper explores the political difficulties of treaty reform in the context of five pending revisions. It first looks at the Deauville Declaration and its translation into political and legal reality. The second part is dedicated to the four other treaty revisions on the European agenda. Finally, it focuses on some of the potential problems in the ratification phase.

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