Keywords: EU-Russia-US Triangle; International Relations,
All configurations of the EU-Russia-US triangle merit examination, in the evolving relationships between the three parties. Beyond the three bilateral relationships and a cooperative trilateral there can be three special bilateral alliances, whose subject of interest would be the third party
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Keywords: Ukraine ; Turning Away from Europe; EU; European Neighbourhood Policy;
Regardless of the merits of Ukrainian criticisms of the European Neighbourhood Policy, its reception in Ukraine indicates that the EU has already missed one opportunity to foster the reforms in Ukraine that the EU ultimately seeks. Yet the presidential election in Ukraine on 31 October represents another opportunity for change, as the country will decide between a pro-reform candidate and a pro-government, authoritarian one. As Ukraine prepares to vote, the EU needs to ensure that it sends the appropriate signals concerning the conduct of the elections. If the elections are not free and fair and the government uses the administration machinery inappropriately to guarantee the victory of pro-government candidate, this should have clear and immediate consequences for relations between the new Ukrainian president and the EU. If on the other hand the elections are free and are followed by steps towards pro-European reform, the EU should reciprocate, above all by making sure that the Action Plan between the EU and Ukraine moves the bilateral relationship significantly and noticeably beyond the current state of affairs. Date of PÜublishing: 1 October 2004
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Keywords: Ukraine ; EU ; Orange Revolution;
The outcome of the disputed presidential elections in Ukraine in November 2004 is still highly uncertain. It is however clear that it will have profound consequences for the EU’s relationship with Ukraine. The authors suggest the development of a three-pronged EU approach. First, the EU needs to develop strategies to support the democratic transmission of power from President Leonid Kuchma to his successor. In the event of violence being instigated by the authorities, it is suggested that the EU immediately suspend all contacts with the Ukrainian leadership. If the Supreme Court finds that the result cannot be said to reflect the will of the Ukrainian people, new elections run by the OSCE should be considered. Second, a strategy needs to be formulated to deal with the consequences of a victory for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. It would be imperative that the EU resists the temptation to disengage with Ukraine. The EU would nevertheless need to radically change its policy, for instance by re-targeting economic aid and minimising political dialogue. Third, a strategy needs to be formulated in the event that Viktor Yushchenko wins the presidency. In this case, the EU and Ukraine should in the short-term renegotiate the Action Plan to strengthen bilateral relations. Faced with a pro-European, credible reformist like Mr Yushchenko, with broad domestic support, the EU would in the longer term find it difficult to continue to avoid the question of Ukraine as a potential member of the EU. Date of Publishing: 1 December 2004
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Keywords: Chechnya; open vs. frozen conflict;
The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behaviour have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help. In their own interest, Western countries need urgently to address the crisis in the North Caucasus. This requires them to recognize the seriousness of the threat, to open a real dialogue on cooperation with Russia rather than simply making criticisms, and to make a serious economic contribution to the region. Date of Publishing: April 1, 2005
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Keywords: EU-Russia ; Common Space ; Proliferation of the Fuzzy; Common Space of Freedom;
On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four ‘roadmap’ documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year’s work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular. Does this new attempt to give structure and momentum to the relationship do something more substantial? Does it mark a new era in the relationship? Does it bear any relationship to the massive symbolism on display in Moscow the day before, as world leaders joined in the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II? Date of Publishing: May 1, 2005
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Keywords: Parties of Power; Roadblocks to Democracy; Uklrainian Democracy; Egyptian Democracy;
As typified by Ukraine and Egypt, most of the semi- or non-democratic countries in the EU’s neighbourhood pretend to offer a degree of political pluralism. The standard is for a plurality of parties to run in national elections and participate in parliamentary sessions. In contrast to fully fledged democracies, however, these electoral rituals have little bearing on the composition of government and its policy output, which remains entirely dominated by the executive institutions and parties of power. This paper argues that the trademarks of these types of parties are a serious stumbling block for the development of a multi-party system based on competing ideological currents. For democracy to take hold in the EU’s eastern and southern neighbourhood of the EU, it is crucial that the logic of parties of power be replaced by one structured around autonomous and ideologically cohesive parties. Thus, both ideological and organisational party-building should be an integral part of the EU’s policy agenda to promote the spread of democracy in these regions. Date of Publishing: August 1, 2005
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Keywords: South-East Europe; Customs Union; EU; Regional Schengen; Free Movement of People;
Pending clarification of further enlargement prospects for the whole of the Western Balkans, Michael Emerson argues in this paper that there is every reason to consolidate the positive recent developments with further initiatives of strategic importance to the region. He explores two outstanding candidates for this purpose: 1) enlargement of the existing Customs Union of the EU and Turkey to include the whole of the Western Balkans, and 2) a South-East European Schengen Agreement for the free movement of people. Date Published: 1 November 2005
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Keywords: Russian Energy Policies; Ukraine; gas; gazprom;
Russia’s tough stance towards Ukraine on natural gas prices was viewed by many in Europe and the United States as raising new issues concerning Russia’s foreign economic policies and growing European and US dependency on energy imports. For many new EU member states and for countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, however, this is an old problem. Central European attempts to flag the issue in Western capitals have until now been brushed aside. The rapid approval by the EU Commission of the Russian-German undersea gas pipeline project was a mistake. The concerns of the Central Europeans should have been examined in more detail. Western governments would also be wise to analyse more closely the political and security implications of Russia’s energy policies.
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Keywords: EU accession; Bulgaria; Romania;
On the day before the European Commission’s decision on the fitness of Bulgaria and Romania to become EU members on 1 January 2007 (due to be delivered 16 May 2006), it is becoming increasingly evident that the EU has fallen into its own ‘rhetorical trap’ from which there is no easy way out. Most EU officials and politicians would agree that the governance standards in the two Balkan candidates are not up to EU level yet, but everyone knows that there is not much the EU can do about it at this point.
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Keywords: EU; Russia; Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA);
The 10th anniversary of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and Russia,which falls on 1 December 2007, is already prompting thoughts on whether and how to replace it. This raises basic issues about the form, purpose and content of bilateral treaties in the context of an integrating Europe. The following scenarios are discussed: 1. Retire the PCA without replacement 2. Extend the status quo 3. Extend the status quo, adding a Political Declaration on Strategic Partnership 4. Replace the PCA with a short Treaty on Strategic Partnership 5. Replace the PCA with a comprehensive Treaty on Strategic Partnership 6. Negotiate a Treaty of Strategic Union We argue that the model of the comprehensive multi-sectoral treaty, well known to the EU and its neighbours that aspire to membership, is not suited to the case of Russia, which is not an applicant for membership. Attempts to produce weaker derivatives of this model result in long-winded and pretentious texts that are thin or devoid of legally-binding substance. The treaty form also involves extremely long and risky ratification procedures on the side of the EU and its member states, and is extremely inflexible, even possibly becoming outdated before entry into force. For the foreseeable future, it would be best to focus efforts on concrete, sector-specific agreements. We advocate a three-stage concept, starting with an extended status quo in the short-run (scenario 2), trying to give useful effect to the four Common Spaces agreed in May 2005 and various sector-specific agreements. This could lead on in the medium-term to a Political Declaration on Strategic Partnership (scenario 3) to revise and update priorities after Russia’s WTO accession and more experience with the four Common Spaces. In the long term, we would like to see a Treaty of Strategic Union (scenario 6), as and when there is a greater convergence and mutual trust on matters of political values.
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Keywords: Black Sea Region; EU support; regional cooperation;
This study advocates that the EU support a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder initiative to achieve synergy from regional cooperation in the wider Black Sea area. The background for this initiative is first provided through an overview of the challenges, recent developments and EU interests in this region. Different models of regionalism have been promoted by the EU in the European periphery, and these are schematised with a focus on their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally guidelines for an EU initiative are set out under: 1) objectives and sector-specific actions, 2) its scope in terms of variable geographic geometries of desirable cooperation in the region and 3) a Framework of institutional and financial arrangements to support the process. An overarching mechanism is required to give political cohesion, ownership, visibility and strategic purpose to the process, and this could well be based on an annual, high-level meeting, drawing on the model of the Black Sea Forum Summit in Bucharest on 5 June 2006.
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Keywords: Central Asia; Kazakhstan; EU; geostrategic relevance;
Kazakhstan’s continuing socioeconomic and political stability, a formal commitment to political reforms and an unambiguously pro-Western orientation make it the EU’s most reliable partner in the Central Asian region. Its rising oil exports – almost 80% of EU imports from Kazakhstan consist of fuel and geostrategic location make a close and continuing partnership with the EU inevitable. Recognising that Kazakhstan is favourably placed to be the foremost player in the region, this analysis advocates that the EU should 1) develop an internally differentiated strategy towards Central Asia with Kazakhstan as a strategic anchor in the region, and 2) prioritise the promotion of democratic reforms and transparency of political and economic processes which can turn Kazakhstan into a more effective and reliable partner of the EU and a positive engine for reform in the broader region.
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Keywords: Financial crisis; Euro crisis; Economic and Monetary Union; fiscal policy; macroeconomic policy; social policy; energy; climate change; environmental policy; economic development;
The prevailing financial or euro crisis is a reflection of inadequate fiscal policies in combination with a lack of competitiveness in several member countries of the eurozone. Whatever its causes, however, it has exposed fundamental weaknesses in the design of EMU as well as insufficient implementation of the rules governing the euro area. After all, EMU stands for Economic and Monetary Union. These deficiencies had been signalled earlier in the 1990s, but they have been ignored since then by many politicians and financial markets as well. At this moment, it is still unclear whether the euro-area members are able and willing to resolve this crisis by taking the necessary and far-reaching decisions towards a much higher degree of integration. Such moves would go beyond a ’fiscal union’ and would necessarily cover essential elements of macroeconomic policies as well.
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Keywords: Euro crisis; Economic and Monetary Union; financial crisis; policy measures; government; financial markets; banks; economic policy; economic development; EU foreign policy; energy; climate changes; environmental policy;
The euro crisis has inflicted severe financial, economic and political damage in all countries of the eurozone and beyond. Progress was made in 2012 to address these problems and to reduce the risk of repetition but they are by far not yet fully overcome. The good news is that this crisis has forced agreement on policy measures towards more centralised, European decision-making, which was unthinkable only a few years ago, and towards more European integration in those policy areas where this is needed. The recent positions taken by member countries in the European Council testify to the need as well as the difficulties of making real progress, requiring a combination of substantial solidarity and tough discipline on the part of all countries leading to further transfer of national sovereignty.
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Keywords: European Union; Europe's future; energy policy; economic crisis; economic policy; labour mobility; EU Institutional Reform; foreign policy; social policy; social welfare; climate changes; environmental policy;
It is my great pleasure to introduce myself as the new Chairman of CEPS. Let me start by thanking my predecessor, H. Onno Ruding, who assisted CEPS’ management in growing the organisation to the globally recognised institution that it is today, while preserving its integrity and reputation for insightful and constructive ideas. I intend to continue in that tradition, bringing my expertise to the work of CEPS on some of the core issues on the European agenda in 2014. In particular, the complex arrangements to establish a Single Resolution Mechanism will be of major importance. CEPS will follow the work of the intergovernmental conference that is fleshing out the agreement, providing input and acting as a sounding board for its proposals.
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Keywords: European Union; policy making; eurozone governance; economy; economic policy; economic development; energy; climate change; environmental policy; international relations; foreign policy; trade; security;
At a time when nearly everyone has an opinion on the challenges facing Europe, CEPS is proudly continuing its 30-year mission of providing sound policy advice built on rigorous research. Our researchers help to shape policy by bringing academic discipline to the policy debate. We tackle the big, long-term questions and not just what’s fashionable at any given moment. At a time when many policy-makers are forced to focus on the immediate challenges, this is more important than ever. The European Union is in the midst of setting policy directions for years to come – on the future architecture of bank supervision, on eurozone governance, on migration. Our research is crucial in ensuring that policy builds on solid evidence.
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Keywords: European Union; migration crisis; Grexit; Brexit; energy policy; climate change; environmental policy; asylum seekers; refugee crisis; economic development; economic policy; investments; trade;
Turbulent times continue to provide plenty of food for thought. We are proud that CEPS has managed for several decades to provide expert analysis to an increasingly broad group of stakeholders on topical issues. For example, we have recently examined the migration crisis and the implications of a possible Grexit or Brexit for the EU. We have also addressed more long-standing policy problems such as Energy Union, innovation and deep and comprehensive agreements with important trading partners. With an eye to long-term global issues, CEPS was active in the negotiations for a new international climate change regime, providing a valuable and officially acknowledged contribution to the agreement reached at the COP21 in Paris. The last few months have also seen a worsening of the refugee crisis. Building on decades of research in the fields of migration and asylum, we have put forward concrete and evidencebased policy recommendations to decision-makers both in Brussels and in the national capitals.
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Keywords: European Union; migration crisis; Brexit; populism; policy making; economic policy; international relations; foreign policy; trade; economic development; security;
CEPS’ mission statement seems even more compelling today than it did when it was first adopted many years ago. Thinking ahead for Europe is imperative in light of the urgent challenges confronting the EU today, such as migration, Brexit and the rise of populism. This also applies to the many complex policy domains, such as energy union, capital markets union, economic governance, foreign policy and institutional reform, that require independent, authoritative and evidence-based analysis. Assessments by experts and carefully produced facts and figures tend to remain below the radar screen of current public discourse and they rarely make headlines. But these elements fully retain their value in today’s world in which policy-makers regularly face immensely difficult choices to address problems that are not susceptible to simple solutions or slogans. It is in this spirit that we pursue our work at CEPS.
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Keywords: European Union; populism; fake news; political manipulations; economic policy; jobs; human resources; energy; climate changes; governance; economic development; policy making; security;
Populists usually don’t have much use for complexity. They prefer to build their proposals on the basis of simplistic ideas about the pluralism of our societies and the definition of their electoral platforms. Moreover, we are in the midst of a period when “fake news” competes with reality in an attempt to attract the support of citizens or to manipulate their understanding of what is actually going on. Nowadays, the role of think-tanks is more important than ever before in exposing and countering these trends and providing authoritative analysis to policy-makers and other stakeholders. Based on rigorous analysis of the relevant literature, facts and data, think tanks make an essential contribution to the decision-making process by increasing the awareness of the new challenges and providing educated insights. Their findings and recommendations are instrumental in the design of effective policies, capable of achieving viable outcomes.
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Keywords: asylum seekers; migration; refugees;
Amid escalating geopolitical tension with Turkey, in March 2020 the Greek authorities announced a hardline approach towards asylum seekers attempting to cross its land and sea borders with Turkey. The framing of cross-border movements as a ‘threat’ to the country’s national security served to justify a derogation from the human rights standards and procedural guarantees that are granted to people seeking protection under EU law. Since then, a pattern of systematic pushbacks at the border and informal returns represents the most visible expression of this hardening of border policies at the EU’s south-eastern borders. // This paper analyses the negative impact of this heavily securitised approach on asylum seekers’ fundamental rights, in particular its implications for the right to asylum that underpins the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). // The paper also reflects on the limits and ambiguities that have characterised the EU’s response to the situation at the Greek-Turkish borders, focusing on the role and responsibilities of the Frontex Agency. It underlines the need for the EU to remedy the shortcomings in existing accountability mechanisms, to guarantee effective remedies for victims of fundamental rights violations at the border. Establishing a sustainable human- rights-compliant management of migration in the eastern Mediterranean also requires that the EU move away from its focus on containing and restricting asylum seekers’ mobility – a focus that has characterised cooperation on migration and asylum with Turkey within the framework of the 2016 EU-Turkey Statement.
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