Publisher: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies

Readings in European Security. Volume 4

Readings in European Security. Volume 4

Author(s): / Language(s): English

This fourth volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from January 2006 to February 2007. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, Nos. 21-25. The Edidors gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Compagnia di San Paolo, DCAF, NATO, the Open Society Institute and the US Mission to the EU.

Readings in European Security. Volume 2

Readings in European Security. Volume 2

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Transatlantic defence-industrial cooperation; American policy; Military policy; Use of force; Nuclear non-proliferation regime; Turkey and EU; Old and New Europe;

This second volume of Readings in European Security vividly reflects the continuing changes that profoundly affect the factors shaping the security of the European continent. For a historian in the future, thework undertaken by the CEPS-IISS European Security Forum since 2001will appear in sharp contrast to the sort of issues that were at the heart of security concerns during the 1970s and 1980s, dominated by East-West confrontation.This second volume of Readings in European Security contains the complete set of working papers commissioned by the CEPS–IISS European Security Forum in 2003 (Nos. 10-15), during a period of profound change in the international security environment. These papers illuminate the big issues in European security such as the recently unveiled European security strategy, pre-emptive military action and the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In-depth analysis is provided on Europe’s approach to regions such as Turkey and the Greater Middle East. Independent experts present EU, US and Russian viewpoints on each topic. Each set of papers is prefaced by an Introduction by the Chairman, François Heisbourg, Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique in Paris.

The elephant and the bear try again. Options for a new agreement between the EU and Russia

The elephant and the bear try again. Options for a new agreement between the EU and Russia

Author(s): Nadezhda Arbatova,Timofei Bordachev,Andrey S. Makarychev,Fabrizio Tassinari,Marius Vahl,Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; International relations; New agreement; Economic policy; Common Economic Space;

The year 2007 marks the tenth anniversary of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and Russia. At their Sochi summit in May 2006, the two parties agreed to work towards a new agreement to replace the PCA. This book explores whether the EU and Russia could make a better job of their strained relationship, which, while peaceful, is nevertheless characterized by mounting grumbles on both sides over how to govern oil and gas trade and investment, through to issues of democratic values and divergent approaches to such countries as Georgia and Ukraine in their overlapping neighborhoods. The book presents the views of independent analysts from both the EU (Michael Emerson, Fabrizio Tassinari and Marius Vahl) and Russia (Nadezhda Arbatova, Timofei Bordachev and Andrey S. Makarychev) on how to proceed. Also included is a view from Europe’s business leaders. The editor, Michael Emerson, was the European Union’s first ambassador to Moscow from 1991 to 1996. The negotiations that will soon begin at the official level will no doubt be a long process. This book provides ideas that the authors would like the negotiators to embrace, and in any case serves as a valuable reference against which to check what political leaders choose to do.

Evaluating the EU’s crisis missions in the Balkans

Evaluating the EU’s crisis missions in the Balkans

Author(s): Isabelle Ioannides,Ana E. Juncos,Ursula C. Schroeder / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU’s Crisis Mission; Balkan; EU military and civilian crisis management; European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP); Western Balkans; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Macedonia;

Crisis management has become a new frontier for the functions of the European Union. It is a vital component of the EU’s European security and defence policy (ESDP), which in turn completes the set of policy instruments available for the broader concept of the common foreign and security policy (CFSP). The potential significance of these developments has reached the point that political scientists are now treating the CFSP and ESDP as a research domain. Accordingly, this book is devoted to the findings of four scholars – Eva Gross, Isabelle Ioannides, Ana E. Juncos and Ursula C. Schroeder – who in the context of their PhD researches have been analysing the EU’s first crisis-management missions. They look in some detail at how these first operations have gone, what lessons are to be drawn, and indeed, whether the lessons have been drawn by the EU institutions themselves.Since 2003, EU military and civilian crisis management has emerged as a new field in European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), also claiming a place high on the political agenda. This book evaluates the EU’s first such operations in the Western Balkans, focusing on lessons learned in the military and police missions to Bosnia and Herzegovina and to Macedonia. The authors have conducted their research both in Brussels and in the field. The evaluations place these operations in political and institutional perspectives, and highlight not only successes but also the shortcomings that will need to be addressed in the years ahead. The relevance of the book is heightened by the increasing number of crisis management missions that the EU is being mandated to take up worldwide, in Africa and Asia as well as the Western Balkans, with major challenges ahead in a police mission in Afghanistan and an impending rule of law mission in Kosovo.

Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners

Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Natalie Tocci,Daniel S. Hamilton,Radha Kumar,Andrey S. Makarychev,Brantly Womack,Hakim Darbouche ,Sandra Fernandes,Ruth Hanau-Santini,Ian Manners,Gergana Noutcheva,Clara Portela / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union and its global partners; Normative foreign policy; EU trade policy; Sanctions; Normative power;

This publication investigates “Who is a normative foreign policy actor?” It forms part of a new project intended to explore fundamental aspects of foreign policy at the global level, against the backdrop of a proliferation of global actors in the 21st century, following half a century with only one undisputed global hegemon: the United States. The European Union is itself a new or emerging foreign policy actor, driven by self-declared normative principles. But Russia, China and India are also increasingly assertive actors on the global stage and similarly claim to be driven by a normative agenda. The fundamental question explored is how will these various global actors define their foreign policy priorities, and how they will interact, especially if their ideas of normative behaviour differ?

Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs: Case Studies in Selected Energy Intensive Industries – 2018

Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs: Case Studies in Selected Energy Intensive Industries – 2018

Author(s): Christian Egenhofer,Felice Simonelli,Andrea Renda,Antonella Zarra,William Schmitt,Aurélie Faure,Eleanor Drabik,Vasileios Rizos,Thomas Hähl,Michèle Koper,Angelica Afanador Pujol,Marian Bons / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energy prices and costs; Energy intensive industries; Electricity; Natural gas; Components of natural gas;

The current report represents the final deliverable of the 2018 edition of the “Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs: Case Studies in Selected Energy Intensive Industries” (hereinafter “the Assignment”). The Assignment aimed to achieve two main objectives: 1. Providing well-grounded, bottom-up evidence of the composition and drivers of energy prices and energy costs faced by industrial operators in EU energy intensive sectors.2. Assessing the impact of energy prices and costs and of their components on the cost competitiveness and, where possible, international competitiveness of EU energy intensive sectors.

Convergence of bank regulations on international norms in the Southern Mediterranean

Convergence of bank regulations on international norms in the Southern Mediterranean

Author(s): Rym Ayadi,Emrah Arbak,Barbara Casu Lukac,Mohammed Yazid Boumghar,Jawad Kerdoudi,Moez Labidi,Sami Ben Naceur / Language(s): English

Keywords: Convergence of bank regulations; International norms; Southern Mediterranean; Bank performance; North Africa;

International standards and norms on banking regulations have, once again, leaped to the forefront of the policy discussion in developed nations due to the recent crisis in the world’s financial markets. This discussion is far from new, nor does it apply exclusively to the world’s most advanced economies. A sound and well-enforced regulatory regime can help developing nations to channel financial resources more efficiently into investments. For open economies, it can also act as a buffer, an important stability factor in today’s shaky market situation.

Business models in European banking

Business models in European banking

Author(s): Rym Ayadi,Emrah Arbak,Willem Pieter DE GROEN,David T. Llewellyn / Language(s): English

Keywords: Business models; European banking; Retail banks; Investment banks; Wholesale banks; EU banking assets;

Two important and related perspectives are offered at the outset of this review of an important new study by the Centre for European Policy Studies. First, the performance and efficiency of the banking sector has a major impact on a country’s overall efficiency and economic performance, and second, for several European banks, business models changed markedly in the years running up to the banking crisis and are currently in a state of flux.

Artificial Intelligence. Ethics, governance and policy challenges

Artificial Intelligence. Ethics, governance and policy challenges

Author(s): Andrea Renda / Language(s): English

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Ethics; governance; policy challenges; Global race for AI;

Like an unannounced guest, artificial intelligence (AI) has suddenly emerged from nerdy discussions in university labs and begun to infiltrate larger venues and policy circles around the globe. Everywhere, and particularly in Europe, the debate has been tainted by much noise and fear, as evidenced in the European Parliament’s resounding report on civil law rules for robotics, in which Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein is evoked on the opening page (European Parliament, 2016). At countless seminars, workshops and conferences, self-proclaimed “experts” voice concerns about robots taking our jobs, disrupting our social interactions, manipulating public opinion and political elections, and ultimately taking over the world by dismissing human beings, once and for all, as redundant and inefficient legacies of the past.

Index of Readiness for Digital Lifelong Learning

Index of Readiness for Digital Lifelong Learning

Author(s): Miroslav Beblavý,Sara Baiocco,Zachary Kilhoffer,Mehtap Akgüç,Manon Jacquot / Language(s): English

Keywords: Index of Readiness; Digital Lifelong Learning; Skills upgrading; Digitalisation; Society transformation; Digital technology;

Digitalisation brings about disruptive transformations in society, ranging from access to services,interaction with others, obtaining and sharing information, to metamorphoses in the nature and organisation of work. Learning is no exception.

QE in the euro area: has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

QE in the euro area: has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

Author(s): Ansgar Belke,Daniel Gros / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Central Bank; Quantitative Easing; unconventional monetary policies; spreads, structural breaks; time series econometrics;

The asset purchase programme of the euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) involved the purchase of peripheral euro area government bonds, which were clearly not riskless. Moreover, these purchases were undertaken by national central banks at their own risk. Intuition suggests, and a simple model confirms, that, ceteris paribus, large purchases by a national central bank of the bonds of their own sovereign should increase the risk for the remaining private bond holders. This might seem incompatible with the observationthat risk spreads on peripheral bonds fell when QE in the euro area was announced. However, the initial fall in risk premiums may have been due to expectations of the bond purchases proving effective in lowering risk-free rates. When these expectations were disappointed, risk premiums returned to their initial level. Formal statistical tests confirm that indeed risk premiums on peripheral bonds did not follow a random walk (contrary to what is assumed inevent studies). Nor did the announcements of bond buying change the stochastics of these premiums. There is thus no reason to consider the impact effect to have been permanent.

EU policy on strengthening resilience in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. Between the rule of law and oligarchic influence

EU policy on strengthening resilience in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. Between the rule of law and oligarchic influence

Author(s): Denis Cenușă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Georgia; Moldova; Rule of law; oligarchic influence; strengthening resilience;

The state capture and oligarchic control of political power and electoral processes in the associated countries of the Eastern Partnership – Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – are acknowledged by EUinstitutions, civil society organisations and in public opinion. That inevitably puts pressure on the resilience of these three countries, in addition to Russia’s aggressive campaigns, carried out with or without the use of conventional weaponry. This policy brief looks at the EU’s actions to invest in and consolidate the rule of law, in the direction of stimulating internal resilience. It provides a range of arguments supporting the idea that the EU is not sufficiently tackling the oligarchic influences inMoldova, Ukraine and Georgia. These are followed by timely recommendations for the EU institutionsto remedy the situation.

№60 Why come here if I can go there? Assessing the ‘Attractiveness’ of the EU’s Blue Card Directive for ‘Highly Qualified’ Immigrants

№60 Why come here if I can go there? Assessing the ‘Attractiveness’ of the EU’s Blue Card Directive for ‘Highly Qualified’ Immigrants

Author(s): Katharina Eisele / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU’s Blue Card Directive; ‘Highly Qualified’ Immigrants;

This paper analyses the attractiveness of the EU’s Blue Card Directive – the flagship of the EU’s labour immigration policy – for so-called ‘highly qualified’ immigrant workers from outside the EU. For this purpose, the paper deconstructs the understanding of ‘attractiveness’ in the Blue Card Directive as shaped by the various EU decision-making actors during the legislative process. It is argued that the Blue Card Directive sets forth minimum standards providing for a common floor –not a common ceiling: the Directive did not, as originally envisaged by the European Commission, create one European highly skilled admission scheme. This raises questions regarding its concreteuse. A critical focus is placed on the personal scope of the Blue Card Directive and the level of rights offered, and a first comparative perspective on the implementation of the Directive in five member states is provided.

№61 The Criminalisation of Migration in Europe. A State-of-the-Art of the Academic Literature and Research

№61 The Criminalisation of Migration in Europe. A State-of-the-Art of the Academic Literature and Research

Author(s): Joanna Parkin / Language(s): English

Keywords: Criminalisation; Migration; Europe; immigration law and policy;

In the last 30 years, a clear trend has come to define modern immigration law and policy. A set of seemingly disparate developments concerning the constant reinforcement of border controls, tightening of conditions of entry, expanding capacities for detention and deportation and the proliferation of criminal sanctions for migration offences, accompanied by an anxiety on the part of the press, public and political establishment regarding migrant criminality can now be seen to form a definitive shift in the European Union towards the so-called ‘criminalisation of migration’. This paper aims to provide an overview of the ‘state-of-the-art’ in the academic literature and EU research on criminalisation of migration in Europe. It analyses three key manifestations of the so called ‘crimmigration’ trend: discursive criminalisation; the use of criminal law for migration management; and immigrant detention, focusing both on developments in domestic legislation of EU member states but also the increasing conflation of mobility, crime and security which has accompanied EU integration.

№64 How much does EU citizenship cost? The Maltese citizenship-for-sale affair: A breakthrough for sincere cooperation in citizenship of the union?

№64 How much does EU citizenship cost? The Maltese citizenship-for-sale affair: A breakthrough for sincere cooperation in citizenship of the union?

Author(s): Sergio Carrera / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU citizenship; Maltese citizenship-for-sale affair; cooperation in citizenship;

How much does European citizenship cost in the EU? This was the question that has raised so much controversy over the Maltese citizenship-for-sale programme. The outright selling of Maltese nationality to rich foreigners led to unprecedented responses by the European Parliament and European Commission. This paper examines theaffair and its relevance for current and future configurations of citizenship of the EU. It studies the extent to which member states are still free to lay down the grounds for the acquisition and loss of nationality without any EU supervision and accountability. It provides a comparative overview of member state schemes and the exact pricefor buying citizenship and a residency permit in the EU. It is argued that the EU’s intervention on the Maltese citizenship-for-sale affair constitutes a legal precedent for assessing the lawfulness of passport-for-sale or golden migration programmes in other EU member states. The affair has also revealed the increasing relevance of a set of European and international legal principles limiting member states’ discretion over citizenship matters and providing a supranational constellation of accountability venues scrutinising the impact of their decisions overcitizenship of the Union.

№80 The Criminalisation of Irregular Migration in the European Union

№80 The Criminalisation of Irregular Migration in the European Union

Author(s): Mark Provera / Language(s): English

Keywords: Criminalisation; Irregular Migration; EU; legal regimes; humanitarian instincts; immigration law compliance;

This paper offers an academic examination of the legal regimes surrounding the criminalisation of irregular migrants in the EU and of acts of solidarity with irregular migrants, such as assisting irregular migrants to enter or remain in the EU, and other behaviour that is motivated by humanitarian instincts.The research analyses EU law and its relationship with national provisions regarding the criminalisation of irregular migration and of acts of solidarity vis-á-vis irregular migrants. A comparative analysis was made of the laws of the UK, France and Italy, supplemented by ananalysis of the laws of Germany, the Netherlands and Spain. By considering the role of public trust in fostering compliance with the law, the paper explores the impact of criminalisation measures on institutions’ authority to compel individuals to comply with the law (institutional legitimacy).

№90 The Cost of Non-Europe in the Area of Organised Crime

№90 The Cost of Non-Europe in the Area of Organised Crime

Author(s): Sergio Carrera,Elspeth Guild,Lina Vosyliūtė,Amandine Scherrer,Valsamis Mitsilegas,Mirja Gutheil,Quentin Liger,Gareth Harper / Language(s): English

Keywords: Cost of Non-Europe; Organised Crime; Investigation and prosecution;

This Research Paper examines the costs of non-Europe in the field of organised crime. It provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the main legal/ethical, socio-political and economic costs and benefits of the EU in policies on organised crime. It offers an in-depth examination of the transformative contribution that the EU has made, in terms of investigation, prosecution and efficiency, to trans-border operational activities and the protection of its citizens’ rights. Finally, it seeks to answer the questions of what are the costs and benefits of European cooperation and what forms of cooperation would bring more European added value.

№52 Justice and Home Affairs Databases and a Smart Borders System at EU External Borders. An Evaluation of Current and Forthcoming Proposals

№52 Justice and Home Affairs Databases and a Smart Borders System at EU External Borders. An Evaluation of Current and Forthcoming Proposals

Author(s): Didier Bigo,Sergio Carrera,Ben Hayes,Nicholas Hernanz,Julien Jeandesboz / Language(s): English

Keywords: exchange of data and information in EU Justice and Home Affairs policies; smart borders; right to data protection;

This study examines current and forthcoming measures related to the exchange of data and information in EU Justice and Home Affairs policies, with a focus on the ‘smart borders’ initiative. It argues that there is no reversibility in the growing reliance on such schemes and asks whether current and forthcoming proposals are necessary and original. It outlines the main challenges raised by the proposals, including issues related to the right to data protection, but also to privacy and non-discrimination.

CONFLICTING OBJECTIVES OF EU CONDITIONALITY UNCOVERED. Roma Policies in the Republic of North Macedonia

CONFLICTING OBJECTIVES OF EU CONDITIONALITY UNCOVERED. Roma Policies in the Republic of North Macedonia

Author(s): Simonida Kacarska / Language(s): English

This policy paper examines the conflicting objectives of EU conditionality in relation to Roma in the aftermath of introducing visa-free travel for the Western Balkans, studying the case of North Macedonia. Since the eastern enlargement, EU conditionality on Roma has gradually advanced in terms of both the acceding countries and EU member states. At the same time, the pressures to curb migration in the EU have inadvertently affected the position of Roma. In acceding countries from the Western Balkans, the tension between these two trends has been clearly illustrated with the EU and national responses to the rise of the number of asylum seekers in the EU from this region. Looking at the case of North Macedonia, the paper shows how national authorities, in response to EU member state requests, have instituted practices at the national level that have led to a violation of the rights of the Roma community, by limiting their freedom to exit the country.

№ 81 THE EU COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY. Responses to the Attacks in Paris

№ 81 THE EU COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY. Responses to the Attacks in Paris

Author(s): Didier Bigo,Evelien Brouwer,Sergio Carrera,Elspeth Guild,Emmanuel-Pierre Guittet,Julien Jeandesboz,Francesco Ragazzi,Amandine Scherrer,Felix Scherrer / Language(s): English

Keywords: terrorism: counter-terrorism;

This paper examines the EU counterterrorism policy responses to the attacks in Paris, 7-9 January 2015. It provides an overview of the main EU-level initiatives that have been put forward in the weeks following the events and that will be discussed in the informal European Council meeting of 12 February 2015. The paper argues that a majority of these proposals predated the Paris shootings and had until that point proved contentious as regards their efficacy, legitimacy and lawfulness. A case in point is the EU Passenger Name Record (PNR) proposal. The paper finds that EU counterterrorism policy responses to the Paris events raise two fundamental challenges: ** A first challenge is to the freedom of movement, Schengen and Union citizenship. The priority given to the expansion in the use of large-scale surveillance and systematic monitoring of all travellers including EU citizens stands in contravention of Schengen and the free movement principle. ** A second challenge concerns EU democratic rule of law. Current pressures calling for an urgent adoption of measures like the EU PNR challenge the scrutiny roles held by the European Parliament and the Court of Justice of the European Union on counterterrorism measures in a post-Lisbon Treaty setting. // The paper proposes that the EU adopts a new European Agenda on Security and Liberty based on an EU security (criminal justice-led) cooperation model firmly anchored in current EU legal principles and rule of law standards. This model would call for ‘less is more’ concerning the use, processing and retention of data by police and intelligence communities, and it would instead pursue better and more accurate use of data that would meet the quality standards of evidence in criminal judicial proceedings.