Publisher: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies

Who is aiding Ukraine?

Who is aiding Ukraine?

Author(s): Yevhen Anhel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian aggression against Ukraine;

The now famous phone call between President Trump and President Zelensky released to the public in September attracted most attention around the Biden affair and possible links to US military assistance. Less noticed were Trump’s remarks that Europe did nothing for Ukraine, notable by comparison with the US. This prompts us to put the facts together, and to compare the financial assistance from the EU and other donors in the period since the 2014 – see Table 1 for the EU and Table 2 for international agencies and bilateral donors other than the EU.

Can Ukraine and Russia make things work this time?

Can Ukraine and Russia make things work this time?

Author(s): Nikolaus von Twickel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian-Russiqn conflict;

The next steps towards reconciliation are going to be extremely difficult and painful for a number of reasons. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier probably doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry at the fact that his name has suddenly appeared in headlines across Ukraine and Russia, and has been plastered on placards by angry protesters in Kiev.

Bill #1008: A step towards the reform of the Judiciary in Ukraine or another attempt at its capture?

Bill #1008: A step towards the reform of the Judiciary in Ukraine or another attempt at its capture?

Author(s): Mykhailo Zhernakov / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine judiciary;

On 16th of October, the Parliament adopted a long-anticipated draft law #1008 “On amendments to certain laws of Ukraine on judicial governance bodies”. To a large extent, the draft law was a reaction to civil society’s “ Agenda for Justice” initiative that called, among other things, for the relaunch of the judicial governance bodies responsible for the failure of the judicial reform of the last 5 years and popular demand for justice at large. The bill provides for a number of novelties that can increase efficiency of the judicial reform, especially in terms renewal of the judiciary. However, the bill also contains several provisions that can render the positive changes ineffective or even make judiciary more dependent on the political power.

Moldova’s return to a pro-Russian government

Moldova’s return to a pro-Russian government

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rule of Law in Moldova;

The political struggle over the rule of law reforms is returning Moldova back to the status quo of 10 years ago, one of an oscillating East-West model of political leadership. Last week’s effective vote of no-confidence against the reform-keen government of Prime Minister Maia Sandu has made it possible for the Socialists to consolidate their political weight. The whole executive power has moved into the hands of the President Igor Dodon, who has never ceased to craft decisions inside the Socialists Party.

Profiling the new Socialist-anchored government in Moldova

Profiling the new Socialist-anchored government in Moldova

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

The no-confidence vote against the pro-EU government, under Prime Minister Maia Sandu, has now solidified the concentration of power in the hands of the Socialists Party. As a result, Moldova has started to resemble a top-down ruling type of presidential regime already advocated by Igor Dodon. He has now become the key-political actor, closely directing the government program of the new Prime Minister Ion Chicu. President Dodon is also demanding results from recently elected mayor of Chisinau, the Socialist Ion Ceban. The country is thus adopting, as never seen before, a ‘1+3 format’ of governing, in which the President can instruct the legislature, government and executive of the capital city.

The new EU leadership’s opportunity for an early win in Eastern Europe

The new EU leadership’s opportunity for an early win in Eastern Europe

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

If the new High Representative Josep Borrell and new Commissioner for the neighbourhood Olivér Várhelyi are wondering where to start, they would do well to consider what they might do next with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. This summer, the Commission organised an open ‘structural consultation’ of official and private stakeholders on the future of the Eastern Partnership. The deadline for submissions was a month ago, and so the new leadership will presumably have a digest of the results on their desks. The EU’s new leadership could see here the makings of an early win for its currently limping foreign and security policy.

Continuing tension in Georgia over contested electoral systems

Continuing tension in Georgia over contested electoral systems

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

Since June, the center of Georgian politics has moved to the streets and no way back is in sight yet. Everything started on June 20th, when a Russian communist MP Sergei Gavrilov was seen in the chair of the speaker of Georgian Parliament leading a session of the Interparliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy. This sight outraged many Georgians who long suspected their government of the hidden pro-Russian agenda. They responded with large protest rallies led by non-partisan youth organizations with the participation of political parties.

100 days of Ukraine’s new government: many achievements but some disturbing signs

100 days of Ukraine’s new government: many achievements but some disturbing signs

Author(s): Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

The new Ukrainian Parliament and the Government celebrate their first 100 days in power, after the summer early parliamentary elections brought overwhelming victory to the “Servants of People” party. For sure, the political achievements have been impressive. The elections of president and parliament were truly democratic, and the clear results provide a valuable foundation for coherent government. The new cabinet of ministers sees many carefully selected people of real competence, almost all quite young and apparently dynamic.

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine advance an EU+3 proposition

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine advance an EU+3 proposition

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Denis Cenuşă,Tamara Kovziridze,Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

Initiative of the Three. On 5 December in the margins of an OSCE ministerial meeting in Bratislava, the three foreign ministers of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine handed to the new EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, an important Joint Statement. The three states set out in some detail how they invite the EU to work together with them in an EU+3 format to build on their existing Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA), with a “long-term, strategic, forward-looking agenda”.

The art of compromise: Ukraine and Russia agree on a gas transit deal

The art of compromise: Ukraine and Russia agree on a gas transit deal

Author(s): Iryna Kosse / Language(s): English

This December was an important month for the European gas market. This is because the 10-year agreement between Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz to transport natural gas to Europe expires at the end of 2019. There was a high level of uncertainty on whether Ukraine and Russia would be able to reach a new deal without disrupting the gas supplies. Now there are very high chances that a new gas transit deal will be signed by December 29.

Unintended consequences of the Russia-Ukraine gas deal: a collateral benefit for Moldova

Unintended consequences of the Russia-Ukraine gas deal: a collateral benefit for Moldova

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian gas supply;

The new gas deal between Ukraine and Russia (Euroactiv, 20 December 2019 ), facilitated by the European Commission, offers some short and medium term guarantees for a stable regional gas supply, over the next one to 5 years. The deal could be eventually extended for another 10 years - until 2034. Theoretically, Gazprom is supposed to ship gas to the West, using the Ukrainian gas network, 65 billion m3 in 2020, and down to 40 billion m3 until 2024 ( Unian, 21 December 2019 ). The trilateral gas negotiations between EU, Ukraine and Russia had been going on for 19 months, since July 2018. This difficulty of the negotiations explains the diplomatic excitement of the EU with the achieved deal.

Trade geography of Ukraine in 2019: declining Russia, rising China, slowing EU

Trade geography of Ukraine in 2019: declining Russia, rising China, slowing EU

Author(s): Veronika Movchan / Language(s): English

The year 2019 witnessed new developments in the geography of Ukraine’s trade in goods. Although the official annual statistics has not been released yet, trends have been very clear already, and they are not fully in line with prior expectations. There are three major changes. First, Russia lost its leader position among individual countries – trade partners of Ukraine. Second, China has become the leading partner instead. Third, the trade in goods with the EU slowed considerably. Below we consider these developments in more detail.

Overview of FDI trends in Georgia before and after the DCFTA

Overview of FDI trends in Georgia before and after the DCFTA

Author(s): Tamara Kovziridze / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU ad Georgia;

Since September 2014 the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) entered into force between the EU and Georgia. Georgia is gradually implementing EU requirements in various areas identified in the agreement that brings Georgian regulations in line with the EU. One of the anticipated key benefits from the DCFTA, besides increased and diversified trade between the EU and Georgia, is increased FDI. This article briefly analyses foreign direct investment trends in Georgia before and after the entry into force of the DCFTA. The aim is to see whether the DCFTA has played the role of a game-changer in the first four years of DCFTA implementation.

Corruption Perception Index 2019: Thinking about Ukraine

Corruption Perception Index 2019: Thinking about Ukraine

Author(s): Igor Burakovsky / Language(s): English

Keywords: corruption;

According to new Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2019 published by Transparency International, Ukraine scored 30 points out of 100. It means that Ukraine gone back to the level of 2017 and now ranks 126th out of 180 countries alongside Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Djibouti. These results are more or less consistent with the domestic perception that during last two years the “internal anti-corruption drive” has significantly lost its momentum. It took a lot of time and efforts to create the system of special anti-corruption agencies such as National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP), Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) and High Anticorruption Court. However, their failure to act efficiently prompted the necessity to “re-launch” this system. The new Parliament rapidly adopted new laws on the NACP and the State Investigation Bureau. Even in a best-case scenario, these re-launched anti-corruption bodies will still need two-to-three years for fine-tuning to become up and running at full capacity, and for their political independence to be effectively preserved.

The international democratic community, watching Georgia, aghast at Bidzina Ivanishvili's behaviour

The international democratic community, watching Georgia, aghast at Bidzina Ivanishvili's behaviour

Author(s): Ghia Nodia / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rule of Law in Georgia:

Many Georgia observers agree that Bidzina Ivanishvili’s government and ruling party Georgian Dream (GD) has never been under such intense criticism from the international democratic community as now. Maybe, none of its predecessors either has ever been subject to such criticism. The criticism comes from both the US and the Europeans. The two most important issues concern Georgia's electoral system and the recent arrest of Gigi Ugulava, a leader of European Georgia, a major opposition party. On February 12-13, for the first time in its history, the EU-Georgia Parliamentary Committee failed to adopt a joint statement. This is a sign of a crisis in relations between the EU and Georgia. The question to be asked is: How far can this criticism influence the behaviour of the Georgian government? And there is another one: being under such a strong barrage of criticism, will the Georgian government maintain its commitment to European integration?

Does Moldova remain pro-EU, in Russia’s shadow?

Does Moldova remain pro-EU, in Russia’s shadow?

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

The path towards European integration in Eastern Europe moves away from the standardized binary “black-and-white” conventional geopolitical thinking. According to this view, advocating friendship with Russia does not mean converting a government into an anti-EU player. Instead, this amounts to a more nuanced and pragmatic relationship, less romanticized on both sides.

How Ukraine is to handle Intellectual Property Rights in its Customs procedure

How Ukraine is to handle Intellectual Property Rights in its Customs procedure

Author(s): Andriy Butin / Language(s): English

Keywords: intellectual property rights;

Protection of intellectual property rights (IPR) is one of the most pressing issues in the Ukrainian economy, which significantly influences a country's relations with its international partners. The Association Agreement with the EU aims to strengthen the IPR system, in particular, to improve IPR enforcement when moving goods across borders. Stronger IPR protection, in turn, requires the introduction of an international or national principle of the ‘exhaustion’ of IPRs upon the import of goods. However, the Association Agreement does not define which principle to choose. According to Art. 160, the Parties are entitled to establish their IPR regime, aligned on the provisions of the TRIPS Agreement. Thus, Ukraine may, at its discretion, decide this issue. And it will not be easy. Until October 2019, the legislation did not clearly define which principle is applied in Ukraine.

The End of the Honeymoon for Ukraine’s Zelensky

The End of the Honeymoon for Ukraine’s Zelensky

Author(s): Artem Remizov / Language(s): English

While the whole world is fighting the global Coronavirus pandemic, Ukraine is also experiencing a political shake up. On 4 March the Parliament dismissed Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and his government after just six months in office without objective justification.2 It followed this by sacking the Prosecutor General whose work had been praised by Ukraine’s international partners. The president’s team also made a first step towards recognition of Russia-supported separatist Donbas‘republics’ through their (possible, not yet confirmed) inclusion in Minsk talks. As a result, Ukraine has entered into another period of uncertainty what has already led to an increase in interest rates on Ukrainian sovereign bond. The present note chronicles these developments and their implications.

On the Effects of the Pandemic – between European Solidarity and the Eastern Neighbourhood's Resilience

On the Effects of the Pandemic – between European Solidarity and the Eastern Neighbourhood's Resilience

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid 19;

EU responses to coronavirus require effective engagement with Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia - by broadening political and sectoral communication, facilitating access to European medical equipment and revising association agendas to reflect health needs in the post-Covid period.

The COVID-19 test for Ukraine

The COVID-19 test for Ukraine

Author(s): Igor Burakovsky / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19 in Ukraine;

The Ukrainian authorities started to react to COVID-19 pandemic relatively late due to the internal political crisis resulting in Prime Minister Honcharuk’s resignation on the 4 March, as well as the resignation of the number of top-level officials like Prosecutor General Ruslan Riaboshapka and his team. The new Government had virtually to do three tasks in parallel: to form the staff of the ministries with new ministers, to deal with current economic problems, and to take measures to counteract COVID-19 pandemic and pandemic-related problems.