When will Vojvodina’s draft statute find its way to republican MPs? The answer to the question spoke of various deadlines – firstly it was March, then May and now the summer extraordinary session of the Parliament1 and even early autumn 2009.2 Asked about it, Bojan Pajtic, president of the provincial government, said lately, “I wouldn’t prognosticate since we have finished our job. The responsibility for it is now on republican institutions.”
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In a way, the global economic crisis sobered up the entire world – and Serbia to some extent. First of all, it laid bare the country’s dramatic economic situation. Serbia is still wasting its modest transitional potential on the delusion that its aspirations towards Bosnia-Herzegovina are viable. Against the backdrop of global turmoil and reshuffle Serbia can count on the support from EU and US only -- and the more so since it has established strong economic ties with the former. Besides, EU channels Serbia towards reforms meant to strengthen its economy in the long run and turn it competitive at the world market. The ruling coalition realized all this at long last – in those circumstances it has been leaning towards EU though faced with strong obstruction from the conservative bloc.
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This year the world marked the anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide with more consideration than before. This only logically follows the messages sent to the region, and particularly to Serbia over past months. US Ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina Charles English said, “The world failed to act, failed to protect the innocent of Srebrenica…The massacre was a stain on our collective consciousness.” Having hesitated for 20 years the EU – and US in the first place – finally realized that there could be not stability in the Balkans without a stable Bosnia-Herzegovina. In a few months only, the new US administration’s engagement in the Balkans produced visible results – and they are mostly visible in the new dynamics in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
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Notwithstanding the persistent anti- NATO propaganda Serbia’s membership of NATO has become the most important geostrategic agenda that is being daily discussed notably by the so-called expert circles. Several crucial domestic and international factors have contributed to such intensified discussion. At home, the global economic and financial crisis pressurizes the incumbent government to rationally decide the country’s geostrategic orientation. Such rational decision would simultaneously open Serbia the avenues of EU assistance in overcoming economic and social problems.
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South Serbia has been a neuralgic point ever since the opening of the Kosovo status issue. After NATO intervention /1999/ stability in three South municipalities -- Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja -- has been directly connected to the status issue. Both sides -- Serb and Albanian – hoped for partition, which would place the three municipalities in quite a different context. In early August 2009, American congressman Dan Rohrabacker concretized the “partition idea” – according to him, Serbia and Kosovo should switch territories with each other: Serbia would get North Kosovo with Mitrovica and Kosovo South Serbia with the three abovementioned municipalities. Given that the entire region is of strategic importance for the Serb strategists ensuring it the control over the Vardar Valley, the “offer” is unacceptable to Belgrade. For the same strategic reasons expulsion of Albanians from the three municipalities was Belgrade’s priority in the aftermath of the intervention. In this it succeeded only partially (in Medvedja). In response, local Albanians rebelled in 2001.
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The character of the changes of October 2000 considerably influenced the character of Serbia’s democratization as well. As the new government did not distance itself from Milosevic’s policy, transition in Serbia has been burdened since not only by that policy but also by the same people. That was best mirrored in the media sphere. Given that media freedoms clearly indicate the state of democracy and the rule of law in a state, the media in Serbia have been reflecting an inconsequent social transformation.
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Adoption of a minority law was a major precondition to FR of Yugoslavia’s (Serbia’s) admission to the Council of Europe after the change of the regime in October 2000. Ever since the position of ethnic minorities in Serbia has been constantly supervised by international factors such as EU, OSCE and Council of Europe, foreign embassies, as well as by domestic non-governmental organizations. What marked the past nine years were numerous ethnically motivated incidents and the state’s basically inadequate minority policy. Since the “new” political elite persevered in constituting an ethnic state, the situation of national minorities remained high on the agenda for observers of developments in Serbia. Due to a deficient legal frame -- but also due to non-existent will for changing the overall social climate – minorities are still not satisfied with the manner in which the state and the society treat them.
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Serbian government elected in spring 2009 retained an ambivalent attitude towards the Kosovo issue – an attitude best reflected in the Democratic Party’s /DS/ slogan “Both Kosovo and EU.” The cabinet relocated “defense of Kosovo” to the domain of the international law (UN, ICJ) intent to either prevent or slow down the process of recognition of the newly born state. The entire initiative is actually an attempt at returning the Kosovo status to a negotiating table and extorting Kosovo’s partition.
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For over two decades Sandzak – a part of Serbia bordering both on Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro, and mostly populated by Bosniak minority – has been exposed to the state orchestrated, repressive policy aimed at minimizing this minority community. The attitude towards Islam and Muslims in ex-Yugoslavia became harsh and hostile back in 1980s when the Serb elite launched the campaign against Muslims, along with the thesis about “Islamic fundamentalism threatening to destroy Yugoslavia.” The terrain was so prepared for the ensuing genocide in Bosnia the effects of which haven’t bypassed Sandzak Bosniaks either. The attitude towards Muslims has not basically changed since. However, under the pressure from European organizations such as Council of Europe, OSCE and EU, the state has been refraining from overt repression but not from other methods like criminalization of individuals or groups (Vehabits) and, above all, from constant undermining of the Islamic Religious Community as the only Bosniak institution, crucial for their identity.
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Ever since it consolidated its pro-European course the Serbian cabinet has been confronted by the anti- European and anti-West “alliance” aware that such development posed a threat to its ideological concept. Namely, it feels threatened by the process forcing Serbia to put an end to the national and state question – i.e. to give up its territorial aspiration towards Bosnia-Herzegovina in the first place.
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Belgrade hasn’t had much opportunity to host notable heads of state over the past two decades. Ex-Yugoslavia’s disintegration and Serbia’s role in the process – as constants at the international agenda – have only logically brought to Belgrade high officials of many countries, organization and institutions, but high-level visits were truly rare events. No doubt that the visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is significant in this context. This is testified by the interest of media people in the Serb-Russian summit: some 600 reporters covered the meeting between Tadic and Medvedev. This was the fist Serb-Russian summit meeting since Serbia’s independence in 2007. As for President Medvedev, this was the first time he was given a chance to address a parliament of another country in his capacity as the head of the Russian Federation.
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In the second half of 2009 violence in Serbia was among key topics prevailing in the media and political circles alike. Despite the fact that neo-Nazi and “patriotic” organizations, wellorganized groups of football fans and other movements ideologically close to them are here both main promoters and executioners, the public discourse often turns a blind eye to those clearly defined actors and refers to “extremists” or, generally, to “violence” as such and “the violent character of the Serbian society.” Given that no relevant researches have dealt with the activities of afore-mentioned organizations so far, the only relevant insights into the phenomenon of violence can be obtained from media reporting and actions taken by governmental authorities on the one hand, and reports by domestic NGOs and international human rights organizations on the other.
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Regional stabilization depends on consolidation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. As the basis for Bosnia’s political arrangement the Dayton Accords have proved insufficient since and need to be upgraded so that the country can function normally. The international community has been aware of that for some time now and treating the Dayton Accords as an unfinished process.
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Local elections in Kosovo of November 15, 2009 – the first elections organized by Kosovo authorities after independence declaration – resulted in a new, major quality in the overall situation. Despite the pressure from Belgrade, a part of the Serb community in Central Kosovo – considerable beyond all expectations – participated in the elections and won authority over some of the municipalities in which Serbs are in majority.
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The funeral of Patriarch Pavle was more than a burial of a church dignitary. The entire obsequial scenario – including memorial ceremonies – was above all designed to demonstrate national unity and show that the entire Serb nation was mourning as one.
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Belgrade has underestimated the international community’s resolve to settle the status of Kosovo and, therefore, inadequately acted in the 2007 negotiations. Ever since the beginning of the Kosovo crisis Belgrade has had an eye on the partition scenario and taken it as the only acceptable solution. In 2004, the book “Kosovo” by Dobrica Cosic was being promoted in all bigger towns in Serbia – that was actually an official announcement of the partition policy. Having mistakenly assessed the attitude of international factors, Belgrade has opted for the strategy of moving the Kosovo question to international arena – be-fore the International Court of Justice. Ist intensive diplomatic campaign secured it support from a certain number of countries, which could face similar problems themselves. As soon as the proceedings before ICJ began, the statements coming from Belgrade indicated what was being expected as an outcome: renewal of Belgrade-Prishtina negotiations and a compromise over partition of Kosovo.In the final stage of closing the Balkan question the international community needs to be fully aware that any reopening of the issue of borders is a Pandora’s Box and disintegrates the security structure built over two decades. A unique and functional Bosnia-Herzegovina is a key to stability in the Balkans. As for Serbia, closing of the issue of borders opens new avenues for necessary changes in the country itself.
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Serbia’s attitude towards Bosnia is the biggest stumbling block in the way of regional stabilization. Serbia’s aspirations towards Bosnia date back from the Berlin Congress (1878), annexation crisis in 1908 to present. Serbia’s national elite accepted the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995) as the most optimal achievement against the international backdrop of the time. Ever since Serbia has been pursuing the strategy that has practically incorporated Republika Srpska /RS/ into its economic and cultural space
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After three decades of wandering, the defeat of the Greater Serbia project and all the attempts to keep it alive, the Serb elite was divided over a crucial issue: accession to EU. During his two-year premiership (2001-2003) Zoran Djindjic defined Serbia as a European country. Contrary to all expectations, his assassination put this option to death. Extradition of Slobodan Milosevic to the tribunal in The Hague was among Zoran Djindjic’s legacy. And that was a watershed in Serbia’s policy in the years that followed.
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The debate on the Statute of Vojvodina revealed that key political actors cannot reach a consensus about the decentralization model to be applied to Serbia. A “silent political war” over the Statute laid bare conceptual differences between advocates of centralism and monopoly of power on the one hand, and advocates of a comprehensive decentralization of Serbia on the other. The former demagogically hide themselves behind overemphasized national pathos and concern for Serbia’s integrity and sovereignty, while the latter call for an open society and efficient administration and market economy.In the society without a clear-cut strategy for the country’s development and in the atmosphere of overall disorientation, autonomists were also somewhat at loss when it came to efficient action against the deliberate delay to place the draft statute at parliamentary agenda. It turned out that provincial authorities had no plan for counteracting this unnecessary delay.Four options were in play: an appeal to the Constitutional Court of Serbia, calling of a provincial referendum, including the statute issue in the process of European integrations and, finally, dissolving of the provincial parliament. The ceremony of proclamation of the Statute did not put an end to the “battle for Vojvodina.” Vojvodina will be unable to efficiently exercise the powers it has been invested with unless it has the right to decide on resources necessary for it. New polemic, assaults and accusations will stem from the process of solving the problems of the autonomy’s functioning. Those seeing Vojvodina’s property and income as a material basis for implementation of “a separatist program” are not few.
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