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Publisher: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych

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Rebalancing the Fiscal Framework in the European Union: Perspectives of Germany, France and Poland
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Rebalancing the Fiscal Framework in the European Union: Perspectives of Germany, France and Poland

Rebalancing the Fiscal Framework in the European Union: Perspectives of Germany, France and Poland

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Germany; Poland; France; fiscal policy; rebalancing the fiscal framework; economic crisis; economic governance; Euro zone; sustainable economic growth; euro-skepticism;

The economic crisis that began a decade ago has given impulse to economic governance reforms in the European Union. The most intense changes were in the fiscal sphere, i.e., the rules defining Member State leeway in budgetary planning, with a focus on tightening up the financial discipline and seeing to it that Member States, and especially euro area members, do not go beyond the caps imposed on the government deficit and debt. The changes were by no means uncontroversial. As claimed by proponents, they led governments to begin taking a serious approach to the stability of public finances—a foundation for healthy economic growth—and bore fruit in the form of a European economic recovery starting from 2014. No significant overhaul is needed since the applied mechanisms have just started to work. Critics, on the other hand, argue that the restrictive rules have had the effect of prolonging the economic crisis, aggravating the debt situation and sharpening social problems, thus triggering the rise of populist and anti-European movements. The criticism goes further than that. The present fiscal framework, with its emphasis on discipline, makes it more difficult to pursue a coherent countercyclical policy in the euro area. In its current form, it cannot be coordinated with the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Many also argue that the present fiscal framework has “technical” faults, too many criteria, is complicated, hard to project, and subject to overpoliticised supervision, all of which affects the effectiveness and credibility of the whole system.

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GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies
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GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies

GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Zuzanna Nowak,Lidia Puka,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Good government; Poland; Norway; Polish-Norwegian cooperation; security policy; energy policy; migration policy; national governance;

This report presents the main findings of the research project conducted between 2013 and 2016 by the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), with support from the Institute for Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences (ISP PAN). It also maps the project’s achievements, examines its policy relevance and identifies various knowledge gaps revealed during the study that should be addressed by new research. The GoodGov project has revealed important governance-related differences between Poland and Norway. These result from the interaction of various internal and external factors, including historical experience and path dependence, geographical location and the challenges it poses, various types of resources and access to them, institutional solutions and membership in various international organisations and frameworks. The latter, such as the EU and the EEA, are of special note as they set their own governance-related priorities, rules and solutions that have both a direct and indirect bearing on national governance in Poland and Norway.

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GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies
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GoodGov: Work Together, Govern Better Polish and Norwegian Cooperation towards More Efficient Security, Energy and Migration Policies

GoodGov – lepsze rządzenie dzięki bliższej współpracy Współpraca polsko-norweska dla większej skuteczności polityki energetycznej, migracyjnej i bezpieczeństwa

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Zuzanna Nowak,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Lidia Puka,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Good government; Poland; Norway; Polish-Norwegian cooperation; security policy; energy policy; migration policy; national governance;

W niniejszym raporcie przedstawiono główne wnioski z projektu badawczego, realizowanego w latach 2013–2016 przez Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (PISM) i Norweski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (NUPI) przy współpracy Instytutu Studiów Politycznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk (ISP PAN). Ponadto zaprezentowano dorobek projektu, oceniono jego znaczenie dla polityki i wskazano ujawnione w trakcie badań luki w wiedzy, które powinny stać się przedmiotem kolejnych badań. Projekt GoodGov pokazał istotne różnice między Polską a Norwegią w dziedzinie rządzenia (governance). Wynikają one z wzajemnego oddziaływania szeregu czynników wewnętrznych i zewnętrznych, m.in. historycznych doświadczeń, zależności od ścieżki rozwoju, położenia geograficznego, dostępu do zasobów naturalnych, a także rozwiązań instytucjonalnych oraz przynależności do organizacji i struktur międzynarodowych. Te ostatnie, m.in. Unia Europejska (UE) i Europejski Obszar Gospodarczy (EOG), zasługują na szczególną uwagę, ponieważ wyznaczają własne priorytety, reguły i rozwiązania, rzutujące – zarówno bezpośrednio, jak i pośrednio – na rządzenie na szczeblu narodowym w Polsce i Norwegii.

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NATO and the Future of Peace in Europe: Towards a Tailored Approach
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NATO and the Future of Peace in Europe: Towards a Tailored Approach

NATO and the Future of Peace in Europe: Towards a Tailored Approach

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Kacper Rękawek,Witold Rodkiewicz,Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; peace and conflict studies; future of peace; Europe; collective security; terrorist attacks; terrorism; terrorist networks;

“NATO exists for peace by collective security”. This quote by Lord Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO, encapsulates the central purpose of the Alliance, which has been directly tasked with preserving the peace in Europe for over 60 years, longer than any other organisation on the continent. Hence, today’s considerations on the future of NATO, its policies and capabilities, are in fact tantamount to deliberations on the future of European peace and on how to maintain it. At the same time, answers to pressing threats and challenges are urgently sought, as the European security environment is undergoing a structural change. This transformation is primarily characterised by rapid developments and significant interconnections between multiple threats of a military, asymmetric and non-military nature. After Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and then intervened militarily in eastern Ukraine, military aggression, considered a remote threat for the last two decades, is back on the European security landscape. In the strategic vicinity of Europe, non-state actors driven by radical ideology, particularly the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, have conquered large amounts of territory and established quasi-states, which enabled them to inspire or directly control terrorist networks in Europe, North Africa and the Sahel. Attacks such as those in Paris, Brussels or Bamako testify to their growing capabilities.

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Probable EU-UK Relationship after Brexit Perspectives of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland
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Probable EU-UK Relationship after Brexit Perspectives of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland

Probable EU-UK Relationship after Brexit Perspectives of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Elżbieta Kaca,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; United Kingdom; Brexit; Germany; France; Italy; Spain; Poland; relations with UK after Brexit; European integration; EU regulations;

This report seeks to answer the question of how things will develop if, following the 23 June 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland leaves the European Union, in a move commonly referred to as Brexit. The Polish Institute of International Affairs posits that such a scenario would have adverse consequences for both the European Union and the UK. But given that, just a month before the referendum, the possibility that voters will opt for withdrawal cannot be reasonably ruled out, it is only natural to explore how this outcome could impact the future of European integration. Brexit will necessitate a new agreement between the European Union and the UK which would define a framework for their mutual relations. Possible options range from establishing a preferential trade zone to creating a single market area, including a scenario in which the UK would take part in the developing EU regulations in sectors covered by the agreement.

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New European Diasporas and Migration Governance: Poles in Norway
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New European Diasporas and Migration Governance: Poles in Norway

New European Diasporas and Migration Governance: Poles in Norway

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Marta Stormowska,Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European diaspora; European Union; migrations; Poles in Norway; immigration policy; emigrations of citizens;

The EU has usually considered immigration policy for third country nationals and the free movement framework for EU citizens to be two separate policy fields. Increasingly, they are being conflated. This places a country such as Poland in an ambivalent position. When it comes to the treatment of third country nationals, Central and Eastern European member governments—including that in Warsaw—are reluctant to agree on fixed quotas to relocate forced migrants from the south, fearing that this could strain their limited resources and entail heavy political costs. When it comes to free movement, by contrast, Poland and other sending countries of the region are having to defend the status of their own citizens residing in Western Europe and call on support and solidarity there. This report examines how this may affect the specific situation of the Polish migrant community in Norway. Poland can draw lessons from Norway, which has only recently made the transition to becoming a country of immigration.

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New European Diasporas and Migration Governance: Poles in Norway
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New European Diasporas and Migration Governance: Poles in Norway

Nowe diaspory w Europie i zarządzanie migracją: przypadek Polaków w Norwegii

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Marta Stormowska,Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: European diaspora; European Union; migrations; Poles in Norway; immigration policy; emigrations of citizens;

Unia Europejska traktuje politykę imigracyjną (w odniesieniu do obywateli państw trzecich) oraz zasadę swobodnego przepływu osób jako odrębne kwestie. W coraz większym stopniu jednak łączą się one ze sobą, co stawia kraje takie jak Polska w sytuacji ambiwalentnej, tym bardziej że władze państw Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej – w tym rząd w Warszawie – nieprzychylnie reagują na ustalane kwoty relokowanych uchodźców, obawiając się przy tym napływu migrantów ekonomicznych. Przewidują bowiem, że może doprowadzić to do nadwyrężenia ich ograniczonych zasobów i generować duże koszty polityczne. Jednocześnie w kwestii swobodnego przepływu osób, Polska i inne tzw. państwa wysyłające bronią pozycji własnych obywateli zamieszkujących w innych krajach unijnych, głównie Europy Zachodniej, oczekują też wsparcia i solidarności ze strony tzw. państw przyjmujących. Celem raportu jest analiza bieżących procesów i ich wpływu na sytuację społeczności polskiej w Norwegii oraz przedstawienie wniosków, jakie Polska może wyciągnąć z doświadczeń kraju, który sam stał się docelowy dla dużych grup migrantów.

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The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions
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The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions

The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Wojciech Lorenz,Tomasz Paszewski,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Pernille Rieker,Ulf Sverdrup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Norway; Europe; security policy; NATO; defence; crisis management; governance;

Notwithstanding considerable differences in geography and in economic and demographic potential, Poland and Norway are close security policy partners, with their cooperation in the field resting on a solid foundation of similar threat perceptions and well-defined strategic interests, shared by both countries. The most important of those interests is to keep the North Atlantic Alliance strong and able to effectively provide security to member states, primarily through the credible capability of direct defence of their territories, and then later through crisis-management operations and cooperative security. It is precisely within the NATO framework and at the political level that the Polish-Norwegian cooperation has grown most dynamically, especially with increasing instability in the European security environment following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And yet, the potential for closer collaboration between Poland and Norway and for sharing one another’s experiences is much larger than current practice would indicate. The present report analyses key aspects of Polish and Norwegian security policy, where both countries could benefit from the other party’s good practices and experience, and where they could establish closer cooperation. The research covers areas representing three broad dimensions of security policy: national, regional and European. These are also the three levels of governance, as they are proposed in the methodological framework of the GoodGov project.

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The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions
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The Security Policy of Poland and Norway in the National, Regional and European Dimensions

Polityka bezpieczeństwa Polski i Norwegii w wymiarze narodowym, regionalnym i europejskim

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Krzysztof Kasianiuk,Wojciech Lorenz,Tomasz Paszewski,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Pernille Rieker,Ulf Sverdrup / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Poland; Norway; Europe; security policy; NATO; defence; crisis management; governance;

Pomimo dzielących Polskę i Norwegię istotnych różnic – wynikających choćby z położenia geopolitycznego oraz odmiennych potencjałów ekonomicznych i ludnościowych – oba państwa są bliskimi partnerami w dziedzinie polityki bezpieczeństwa. Ich współpraca opiera się na mocnym fundamencie, utworzonym przez podobną percepcję zagrożeń dla Europy oraz dobrze zdefiniowane, wspólne dla obu krajów interesy strategiczne. Najważniejszym z nich jest utrzymanie silnego Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego, zdolnego do zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa państwom członkowskim, przede wszystkim poprzez wiarygodną zdolność do bezpośredniej obrony ich terytoriów, a dopiero w następnej kolejności przez zagraniczne operacje reagowania kryzysowego i współpracę polityczną (bezpieczeństwo kooperatywne). Właśnie w ramach NATO, a zarazem na poziomie politycznym, oba państwa współdziałają ze sobą najintensywniej, zwłaszcza w sytuacji wzrostu niestabilności europejskiego środowiska bezpieczeństwa, zapoczątkowanego konfliktem rosyjsko-ukraińskim. Jednak potencjał współpracy Polski i Norwegii oraz ich wzajemnego uczenia się od siebie nie jest jeszcze w pełni wykorzystany. W raporcie przeanalizowano najważniejsze problemy polskiej i norweskiej polityki bezpieczeństwa, w których rozwiązaniu mogłoby obu państwom pomóc wzajemne czerpanie ze swoich doświadczeń lub podjęcie ściślejszej współpracy. Do badań wybrano zagadnienia reprezentujące trzy podstawowe wymiary polityki bezpieczeństwa: narodowy, regionalny oraz europejski i transatlantycki; są to zarazem trzy poziomy rządzenia wyróżniane w metodologii projektu „GoodGov”.

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Russia's New Armament - Propaganda, Filling Deficiencies or a Challenge for NATO?
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Russia's New Armament - Propaganda, Filling Deficiencies or a Challenge for NATO?

Nowe uzbrojenie Rosji – propaganda, uzupełnianie braków czy wyzwanie dla NATO?

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russian Federation; NATO; Russia’s military policy; security and defence; armed forces; military equipment; new military technologies;

In recent years, Russia has intensified work on new types of weapons for all parts of its Armed Forces. By introducing the new weapon types, Russia wants to base its strength not only on its nuclear forces, which in many cases is completely ineffective as a deterrent, but also on conventional forces. This goal has resulted in the need to replace obsolete equipment and has been financed by the economic prosperity of the country, thanks mainly to high oil prices. With the higher inflows to the country’s budget, Russian authorities managed to increase funds for rearmament. The current economic crisis, however, and in particular the fall in the price of crude oil, the sales of which form the base revenue of Russia’s budget (amounting to about 45%), may result in a loss of funding for the rearmament programmes. The plans may be further limited by technological deficiencies in Russia’s military industry, exacerbated by sanctions introduced by the EU and U.S. in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and which prevent the acquisition of Western technology, especially military-grade electronics. In the short- and medium-term perspectives, Russia’s financial problems may result in the need to select priority technologies and choose between the armed forces that will be equipped first. Considering the amount of new equipment introduced by Russia and ongoing research projects on new types of weapons, the most important is the Russian Air and Space Forces, as well as its Strategic Rocket Forces. The country will also invest in weapons for ground troops and naval aviation. A number of changes will also affect the navy, but in this case the reason is mainly the poor technical condition of Russian Federation assets.

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The EU Gas Game: Time to Redefine the Rules? Case Studies of Russia and Norway and Lessons for the EU, Norway and Poland
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The EU Gas Game: Time to Redefine the Rules? Case Studies of Russia and Norway and Lessons for the EU, Norway and Poland

The EU Gas Game: Time to Redefine the Rules? Case Studies of Russia and Norway and Lessons for the EU, Norway and Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Zuzanna Nowak,Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; energy policy; gas; energy resources; gas supply; energy market; Russian gas;

The EU’s heavy reliance on imports of energy resources leaves it vulnerable to external suppliers and comes at an economic and political cost. Among the EU’s energy imports its governance vulnerability is especially visible in the gas sector. This is because pipeline infrastructure, longterm contracts, price formulas and an underdeveloped European market weaken the EU’s hand in bargaining with its major gas suppliers, principally Russia and Norway. Norwegian and Russian gas constitutes 80% of all gas imports to the EU. The European Union does have one considerable lever in dealing with Norway and Russia: it is a very attractive market for both countries. This gives the EU some scope to set the rules of the game in terms of gas. The EU assumes the establishment of a fully-fledged European internal market, as well as implementing competition law and exporting market regulations beyond its borders in a bid to reduce prices and depoliticise gas imports, but that raises a question about whether the EU is neglecting other tools available to the EU, such as brute political or financial levers. Indeed the lack of political cohesion among the Member States remains the EU’s Achilles’ heel and its financial capacity is insufficient to force the market to integrate.

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U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity
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U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity

U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States of America; US military presence; Central and Eastern Europe; NATO; Ukrainian conflict; Russia; security; military policy;

In the wake of the Ukraine conflict and Russian hostility towards NATO, the United States has proven to be the most resolute and capable Ally of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states. The U.S. has been striving to provide leadership for the Alliance and invigorate other members to act, while implementing deterrence and reassurance measures on faster and on bigger scale than other countries. U.S. activities in CEE have included persistent rotational presence of small land forces, air and naval deployments to the region, intense training and exercises, unprecedented pre-positioning of heavy armour in the region, and improvements to local infrastructure. The U.S. has acted both bilaterally and multilaterally, as well as within the framework of NATO’s joint Readiness Action Plan (RAP). U.S. actions have been received very warmly among CEE countries, which are concerned about Russia’s behaviour and especially interested in the support and presence of the leading and most powerful member of the Alliance. Nevertheless, for Poland and the Baltic States, the permanent basing of Allied combat forces is a priority. It is necessary to send a strong political signal to Moscow, and prove that there are no second-class security guarantees for new NATO members. The intention is also to deny Russia hopes of achieving a quick victory and presenting the U.S. and the Alliance with a fait accompli. At the very least, small permanent forces would ensure that even a successful attack against CEE states would automatically result in a costly conflict with the U.S. and NATO. At the other end of the scale, bigger deployments would slow down an enemy offensive and buy time for reinforcements to arrive.

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Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis
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Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis

Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Ukraine; Russian-Ukrainian conflict; hybrid warfare; annexation of Crimea; nuclear forces; NATO;

Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine have exposed the challenge of Moscow’s approach to conflict. The element most highlighted is its use of “hybrid warfare,” epitomised by the so-called “little green men”—Russian soldiers albeit without insignia who played an instrumental role in the annexation of Crimea. These “little green men” were used in conjunction with other hybrid tactics such as the covert engagement of Russian forces on the ground, economic pressure, and an unprecedented disinformation campaign. The hybrid warfare tools were, however, not used alone. The credibility and effectiveness of this hybrid warfare campaign was backed up by Russia’s potential to use its full spectrum of military capabilities, including conventional and nuclear forces. Russian tactics that exploited ambiguity of intent and attribution have been surprising and confusing, and they have created difficulties for NATO, which is determined to effectively address them.

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Conference Review on Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 2015: A New Compromise or Risk of Erosion
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Conference Review on Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 2015: A New Compromise or Risk of Erosion

Konferencja Przeglądowa Traktatu o nierozprzestrzenianiu broni jądrowej (NPT) w 2015 roku: nowy kompromis lub ryzyko erozji

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Artur Kacprzyk,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; NPT; conference review; nuclear energy; nuclear weapons; civilian use of nuclear energy;

Traktat o nierozprzestrzenianiu broni jądrowej (Non-Proliferation Treaty – NPT) został podpisany w 1968 r. i wszedł w życie w 1970 r. Pierwotnie miał obowiązywać 25 lat, ale Konferencja Przeglądowa i Przedłużająca w 1995 r. (NPT Review and Extension Conference) nadała mu charakter bezterminowy. Traktat jest niemal uniwersalny. Jego stronami jest 190 państw, a poza nim pozostają jedynie Indie, Izrael, Pakistan, Korea Północna i Sudan Południowy. Depozytariuszami traktatu są Stany Zjednoczone, Rosja i Wielka Brytania. NPT opiera się na trzech głównych filarach: nieproliferacji (art. I, II), rozbrojeniu (art. VI) i pokojowym wykorzystaniu energii jądrowej (art. IV). U jego źródła leży tzw. wielki kompromis (grand bargain) między pięcioma państwami nuklearnymi (USA, Rosja, Wielka Brytania, Francja, Chiny) a nienuklearnymi. Państwa nienuklearne zrzekły się prawa do posiadania broni jądrowej, a w zamian otrzymały pomoc w cywilnym wykorzystaniu energii jądrowej oraz zobowiązanie państw nuklearnych do działań na rzecz nuklearnego rozbrojenia. Nad tym, by państwa nienuklearne przestrzegały swych zobowiązań, czuwać ma Międzynarodowa Agencja Energii Atomowej (MAEA).

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Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance
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Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance

Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lidia Puka,Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Ukrainian crisis; Russian-Ukrainian relations; security; energy policy; migration policy; foreign policy; lessons learnt from past crises and conflicts; migrations;

“The challenge the Ukrainian crisis poses to the European Union’s foreign and security policy can be precisely measured: 50 metres.” The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, was talking about the distance between the Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters in Brussels and the Justus Lipsius building where the heads of EU governments hold their regular summits. Juncker’s is a rather technocratic perspective certainly, but the long walk between the two headquarters is a symbol of a political divide, between the European action and particularist national interests, the cause of internal conflicts and probably also lower governance efficiency in the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis that began unfolding in November 2013 and escalated in February and March 2014 has undermined the unspoken assumption that military conflict in Europe had been confined to the past. The upheaval has been labelled a “return to realpolitik,” “a renewed East-West division,” or “a new Cold War”—terms that directly challenge the EU’s soft and post-modern means of handling international relations. Coinciding with the beginning of a new institutional cycle of the European Union, the crisis has put the bloc’s resilience to external disruptions, as well as its internal efficiency, to the test. And yet, external shocks often result in positive shifts and improvements of internal governance, as they highlight the need to both formulate and conduct successful policies.

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Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance
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Has the EU Learnt from the Ukraine Crisis? Changes to Security, Energy and Migration Governance

Czy UE wyciągnęła wnioski z kryzysu na Ukrainie? Zmiany w rządzeniu w obszarze bezpieczeństwa, energii i migracji

Author(s): Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lidia Puka,Marta Stormowska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: European Union; Ukrainian crisis; Russian-Ukrainian relations; security; energy policy; migration policy; foreign policy; lessons learnt from past crises and conflicts;

„Wyzwanie, jakie kryzys ukraiński rzuca unijnej polityce zagranicznej i bezpieczeństwa, da się wymierzyć z wielką precyzją – chodzi o 50 metrów”. W tych słowach Jean-Claude Juncker, przewodniczący Komisji Europejskiej, nawiązał do odległości dzielącej brukselskie budynki Berlaymont (siedzibę Komisji) i J ustus Lipsius (miejsce regularnie zwoływanych szczytów przywódców krajów członkowskich). Spacer, jakiego wymaga przejście z jednej centrali do drugiej, stał się symbolem rozziewu politycznego między podejściem ogólnoeuropejskim a partykularyzmami narodowymi – rozziewu wywołującego konflikty wewnętrzne i zmniejszającego skuteczność systemu rządzenia w Unii Europejskiej. Kryzys rosyjsko-ukraiński, który rozpoczął się w 2013 r. i nabrał dynamiki w lutym i marcu 2014 r., podważył niepisane założenie, że konflikty militarne w E uropie to już temat dla historyków. Terminy, jakimi się go opisuje – powrót do Realpolitik, nowy podział Wschód–Zachód, nowa zimna wojna – stoją w sprzeczności z „miękkim”, ponowoczesnym podejściem do spraw międzynarodowych ze strony Unii Europejskiej. Kryzys, zbiegający się w czasie z początkiem nowego cyklu instytucjonalnego w Unii, wystawia na próbę zarówno jej odporność na zakłócenia zewnętrzne, jak i skuteczność działania wewnątrz organizacji. Ale trzeba też pamiętać, że szok wywołany zdarzeniami zewnętrznymi – jako że ujawnia potrzebę zwiększenia skuteczności prowadzonej polityki – może przyczynić się do poprawy wewnętrznego systemu rządzenia.

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The Indian Diaspora and Poland–India Relations
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The Indian Diaspora and Poland–India Relations

The Indian Diaspora and Poland–India Relations

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Konrad Pędziwiatr / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Indian diaspora; Indians; national and foreign policies; Indian minority in Poland;

The Indian diaspora is one of the largest national overseas communities. Around 22 million Indians and people of Indian origin live abroad and are in almost all countries of the world. They play an increasingly important role in Indian national and foreign policies, as Delhi has been dynamically re-engaging with Indians globally and involving them in the development of the country. The overseas Indians have a significant political, economic and soft power role in Indian domestic and international aspirations. As this diaspora continues to grow and the government in Delhi emphasises its importance, one may expect it will play a larger role in cooperation with India. The Indian minority in Poland is a relatively new phenomenon, which emerged only after the end of the Cold War, especially after Poland joined the EU, since when the number of Indians in Poland has more than doubled. It seems that the size of the community will increase in the future, as the Polish economy continues to grow, and as more foreign direct investments, including those from India, are made in Poland, enhancing the country’s economic attractiveness for migrants. Today, the Indian community in Poland is made up of almost 4,000 people. This makes it the eighth largest immigrant community in Poland. Although still relatively small, if compared with those established in many Western European countries, it is the main concentration of Indians in Central Europe, and among the New EU Member States. This gives Poland a certain comparative advantage over countries in the region vis-à-vis India.

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Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region
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Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Author(s): Martina Heranová,Zdzisław Lachowski,Raimonds Rublovskis / Language(s): English

Keywords: International relations; West and Russia; lack of trust among states; Euro-Atlantic region; annexation of Crimea; security policy; NATO, OSCE;

When the idea to invite Central European experts to share their views on overcoming the acute deficit of trust in the relationship between the West and Russia first originated in early 2014, there was still some hope that the Ukraine crisis would not mark the beginning of a new period of confrontation in Europe. With that in mind, PISM asked the authors not only to comment on the state of the relationship with Russia but also to assess to what extent various proposals (including Carnegie’s Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative papers and the 2013 report by U.S., Russian and European experts, “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region”) regarding military confidence building and arms control dialogue with Russia would advance the security of Central European countries. However, as the situation deteriorated with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for eastern Ukraine separatists, the focus inevitably had to turn from dealing with the symptoms (mutual mistrust) to addressing the root causes of the spat between Russia and the West, which now threatens the very foundations of the European security system. Previous approaches to mending the relationship, such as those focused on finding areas of cooperation based on common interests (e.g., dealing with terrorism or the Iranian nuclear programme), were unlikely to be sufficient.

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Polish and Norwegian Governance: Closing the Gaps
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Polish and Norwegian Governance: Closing the Gaps

Polish and Norwegian Governance: Closing the Gaps

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska,Grzegorz Gałczyński,Tomasz Paszewski,Dominik Smyrgała / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Norway; government; governance vulnerabilities; international relations; bilateral relations; security; energy; migrations;

The study shows that Poland and Norway have to cope with various governance vulnerabilities and face different challenges. Thus, both countries should adopt some country-specific and joint measures to reduce their governance systems’ exposure to the negative impact of unfolding domestic and international situations. According to the WGI assessment, Norwegian governance is much more effective than Poland’s. This suggests the possibility to transfer governance-related knowledge and best governance practices between Norway and Poland in such a manner that could help Poland close at least some of the identified governance gaps. Poland and Norway could and should further cooperate so as to have a potential positive impact on security, energy and migration in bilateral relations and at the EU level. On security, Poland and Norway have matching interests, as they are members of the same alliance but countries that need to import security, due mostly to their locations and lack of sufficient resources to cope with potential worst-case scenarios. They cooperate closely in the Alliance, have expressed similar concerns for its future, proposed similar solutions and face a resurgent and more confrontational Russia, one that has recently challenged the existing post-Cold War order in Europe with its annexation of Crimea.

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Is this the Future of Europe? Opportunities and Risks for Poland in a Union of Insiders and Outsiders
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Is this the Future of Europe? Opportunities and Risks for Poland in a Union of Insiders and Outsiders

Is this the Future of Europe? Opportunities and Risks for Poland in a Union of Insiders and Outsiders

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; future of Europe; Poland; Member States; Eurozone; EU integration; EU accession treaty; common currency; globalization; economic policy;

More than any other Member State, Poland feels the dangers of the separation of the EU into insiders and outsiders. The country’s economic, political and security standing is bound up with its further integration into a strong European Union, but the intrusive reforms being carried out to restore the Eurozone risk excluding not just it and other non-euro members but the arc of states to its east. Poland has thus fallen victim to 2004’s “incomplete enlargement” of the bloc. So far, Poland has enjoyed sympathy and support from euro members such as Germany, and as a “pre-in” to the currency has been entitled to co-define the development of Eurozone governance. However, its EU partners appear increasingly intolerant of its demands for inclusion. When it ratified its EU accession treaty, they argue, Poland undertook to join the common currency. If it wants to ensure that it is included in decision-making, Warsaw simply needs to re-commit with a firm roadmap.

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