Геостратешка будућност Балкана
Geostrategic Future of the Balkans
Contributor(s): Veljko Blagojevic (Editor), Milovan R. Subotić (Editor)
Subject(s): Politics, International relations/trade, Military policy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Summary/Abstract: The collection includes a series of articles that address various aspects of the geostrategic future of the Balkans, including an analysis of geostrategic security challenges in the region, issues of international relations, integration, the influence of great powers, and the strategic position of the Balkan countries. The main goal of the collection is to provide a foundation for understanding how external and internal factors shape the strategic position of the region. The collection seeks to: shed light on how traditional geopolitical risks (great power competition, security challenges) and new risks (communication, the information sphere) affect the Balkans. The pages of this collection also indicate the key directions through which the region can determine its position in the international system, i.e. what are the opportunities and obstacles for stronger cooperation in the Balkans and integration into European structures.
- Print-ISBN-13: 978-86-7067-358-8
- Page Count: 248
- Publication Year: 2025
- Language: Serbian
ОФИЦИРСКА ПРОФЕСИЈА НА БАЛКАНУ: УЗРОЦИ И ПОСЛЕДИЦЕ „КАДРОВСКЕ ЗИМЕˮ
ОФИЦИРСКА ПРОФЕСИЈА НА БАЛКАНУ: УЗРОЦИ И ПОСЛЕДИЦЕ „КАДРОВСКЕ ЗИМЕˮ
(OFFICER PROFESSION IN THE BALKANS: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE „PERSONNEL WINTER”)
- Author(s):Srđan Blagojević, Srđan V. Starčević
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy
- Page Range:7-24
- No. of Pages:18
- Keywords:officer profession; respect; liquid modernity; "cadre winter"
- Summary/Abstract:The Balkan peoples have historically placed a high value on the officer profession, which allowed for a rigorous selection process for military academies and the ensuing elitism of officers over a comparatively lengthy period of time. At the time of the formation of independent states in the Balkans and the introduction of compulsory military service in the 19th century, officers were teachers of the national mission and creators of the strategic culture of the young Balkan nations. During socialist statism, investments in the military capacities of the state apparatus were significant, and the entry of young people into the officer profession was also a sure sign of their upward social mobility. Contemporary experiences of military schools give a different picture regarding the interest of young people in the military profession. The authors place this change in young people interest in choosing a military profession in the context of social changes in liquid modernity, the political context of transition in most Balkan states in the last decade of the 20th and first decade of the 21st century, and the international-political context of the pacification of the Balkans, especially after the wars in the post-Yugoslav region, to understand its origin and examine its causes. The paper argues that the decreased interest of young people in enrolling in military schools and choosing a military profession in the Balkans can be explained by the mutual incompatibility of (new) dominant social values and (old) values of the military profession, by the displacement of the army from the centre of social life and the life of the individual, and by the reduction of the influence of the military on the social mobility of its officers. The authors conclude that the future consequences of the decline in young people's interest in enrolling in military schools and choosing the military profession will be a decline in the level of military professionalism in Huntington's sense of the term, and subsequently a decline in the ability of Balkan armed forces to effectively carry out their missions and respond to the social need for protection. To prevent these consequences, it is necessary to act on the aforementioned causes of the phenomenon. We cannot expect that the Balkan states will change liquid modernity, because changes in the type of society have always come from the centres of civilisation. The "cadre winter" can pass if the states demonstrate that the officer's profession is worthy of respect, primarily by providing it with professional autonomy, public respect, improved working conditions, and a moderate bonus. For the Balkans, weary of war and plagued by decades of demographic problems, the hidden shared past of the armies may hold the genuine answer: in joint study programmes at military academies. Sharing time, space, and knowledge with young officers would enhance comprehension of the common interests of the Balkan peoples and result in a lasting commitment to peace, which is the very purpose of the army.
НОВИ УГАРСКО-ТУРСКИ МЕГДАН И ЗНАЧАЈ МАЛОАЗИЈСКО-ПАНОНСКОГ СТРАТЕГИЈСКОГ ПРАВЦА
НОВИ УГАРСКО-ТУРСКИ МЕГДАН И ЗНАЧАЈ МАЛОАЗИЈСКО-ПАНОНСКОГ СТРАТЕГИЈСКОГ ПРАВЦА
(THE NEW HUNGARIAN-TURKISH COMPETITION AND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ASIA MINOR-PANNONIAN STRATEGIC DIRECTION)
- Author(s):Nebojša Vuković
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:25-49
- No. of Pages:25
- Keywords:Hungary; Turkey; Serbia; strategic direction; geopolitics
- Summary/Abstract:The paper describes and interprets the foreign policy of the Republic of Hungary and the Republic of Turkey on the Balkan Peninsula. Special attention is paid to Hungarian initiatives and actions in the Republika Srpska and the Republic of North Macedonia, as well as to the traditional ties and influences of the Republic of Turkey in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the southern Serbian province – Kosovo and Metohija. The article also analyses the actions of these two states in the Republic of Serbia. The paper argues that both sides are “consolidating” their positions in the face of a possible multidimensional confrontation of a coalition nature, which could resemble (at least partially) the conflict from the Middle Ages during the great Ottoman incursion into the Balkans and parts of Central Europe. In short, the (hypo)thesis of the paper is that Hungary and Turkey in the Balkans, especially in the area of the former SFRY, are in a state of “tacit competition” that could intensify or escalate in the future. This possible confrontation would immensely affect both the interests of the Republic of Serbia and its territory, because the main direction of confrontation would extend across the Asia Minor-Pannonian (Pannonian-Asia Minor) strategic direction, which in the past was of key importance in the processes of composing the political map of the southeastern part of the Old Continent.
СРБИЈА: РИЗИЦИ НАПУШТАЊА ПРОЕВРОПСКОГ КУРСА
СРБИЈА: РИЗИЦИ НАПУШТАЊА ПРОЕВРОПСКОГ КУРСА
(SERBIA: RISKS OF ABANDONING THE PRO-EUROPEAN COURSE)
- Author(s):Marko Savković, Igor Novaković
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Geopolitics
- Page Range:51-70
- No. of Pages:20
- Keywords:Republic of Serbia; European Union; NATO; foreign policy; neutrality; multipolarity
- Summary/Abstract:International relations today are characterised by actual multipolarity, as well as heightened uncertainty. Long anticipated with the rise of China, real multipolarity denotes the existence of regional powers capable of challenging the current order and projecting power. This situation raises the question of the Republic of Serbia's foreign policy positioning in the context of the perception that there are different choices not necessarily culminating in EU membership. The Republic of Serbia lies at the intersection of several broader geopolitical zones. It is part of Southeastern Europe, which has turned towards Western integration. It is also part of the Balkans, where Turkey has a strong presence as a growing regional power. Moreover, it is located in the security "belt" that NATO defines as one of its priorities—"the area between the three seas: the Baltic, the Black Sea, and the Adriatic". Additionally, Serbia is part of the region in-tended for integration into the EU. Thus, it is a space where the interests of the EU, NATO, Russia, Turkey, and, in the last two decades, China—which views Serbia as one of the central points of its economic presence in Europe—intersect. Through the application of interview and scenario-building methods, this research aims to determine the risks associ-ated with the possible complete abandonment of Serbia’s pro-European foreign policy course in the near future; what kind of reality the citizens of Serbia—and society as a whole—would face in such a scenario; what the political and economic implications would be for Serbia’s partners and its neighbours in the Western Balkans.
СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКИ ЦИЉЕВИ СЕВЕРНЕ МАКЕДОНИЈЕ КАО ОДРЕДНИЦА МОГУЋНОСТИ НЕЗАВИСНОГ СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКОГ ДЕЛОВАЊА МАЛИХ ДРЖАВА
СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКИ ЦИЉЕВИ СЕВЕРНЕ МАКЕДОНИЈЕ КАО ОДРЕДНИЦА МОГУЋНОСТИ НЕЗАВИСНОГ СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКОГ ДЕЛОВАЊА МАЛИХ ДРЖАВА
(FOREIGN POLICY GOALS OF NORTH MACEDONIA AS A DETERMINANT OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF INDEPENDENT FOREIGN POLICY ACTION OF SMALL STATES)
- Author(s):Mitko Arnaudov
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:71-91
- No. of Pages:21
- Keywords:foreign policy; small states; North Macedonia; strategy; institutions
- Summary/Abstract:The foreign policy of small states has never attracted much attention in international relations. For the most part, the science of international relations has not moved significantly from the traditional realist understanding that small states are de facto dependent in their foreign policy activities and forced to adapt to the interests and goals of great powers. In this paper, we analyse North Macedonia’s foreign policy goals to grasp the potential scope of independent foreign policy actions of small states. We accomplish that by analysing the various variables influencing this process. In fact, the case study of North Macedonia is an excellent example for understanding the role of small states in international relations. It provides a three-dimensional insight, viewed from the viewpoints of current global events, regional conditions, and foreign policy objectives. To comprehend the foreign policy actions of small states, we have added the internal, strategic-institutional dimension as a crucial determinant that transcends the framework of the traditional understanding of international relations. Thus, this paper has achieved a twofold goal: to explain the scope of independent foreign policy actions of small states, citing different modalities; and, at the same time, to point out the obstacles North Macedonia has faced on the path to achieving its foreign policy goals, which superficially left the impression that external factors exclusively conditioned the partial foreign policy success of this country.
СТРАТЕШКА КУЛТУРА КАО ОСНОВ ЗА ГЕОПОЛИТИЧКО ПОЗИЦИОНИРАЊЕ ХРВАТСКЕ
СТРАТЕШКА КУЛТУРА КАО ОСНОВ ЗА ГЕОПОЛИТИЧКО ПОЗИЦИОНИРАЊЕ ХРВАТСКЕ
(STRATEGIC CULTURE AS A BASIS FOR CROATIA’S GEOPOLITICAL POSITIONING)
- Author(s):Vladimir Ušljebrka
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Military policy, Geopolitics, Secret Service / Secret Police
- Page Range:93-112
- No. of Pages:20
- Keywords:Croatia; strategic culture; national interests; geopolitics; geostrategy; international relations; security challenges; risks and threats; war
- Summary/Abstract:The Republic of Croatia, as an independent state, geographically located on the Balkan Peninsula, i.e. on the road connecting Europe with the Middle East, is an area where the interests of major „world players” intersect in geopolitical terms. It is a Mediterranean country located on the southern edge of Central Europe and as such connects Central with Southeastern Europe, i.e. West with East. Similarly, as with other countries of the former Yugoslavia, the Republic of Croatia has very little potential for projecting geopolitical power beyond its borders, but its geographical position provides it with the possibility of a favorable geopolitical positioning important for the protection of key national interests. In international politics, it gives priority to relations with the USA and FR Germany and other neighboring countries from NATO and the EU, of which it is also a member, while it sees a danger in neighboring countries that are outside NATO and the EU, as well as possible Russian or Chinese influence in them. In order to fully understand its strategic behavior, possible actions towards neighboring countries that would result from it, and future geopolitical positioning, it is necessary to study strategic culture and use its analytical tools, which has not been the case so far. This paper will attempt to initiate a process that would systematically study the aforementioned research problem, with the intention of determining and defining the influence of the basic characteristics of Croatian strategic culture on its geopolitical positioning in an objective and extremely rational manner, using all available scientific methods, especially the hypothetical-deductive method. The main hypothesis of the paper is: the basic characteristics of Croatian strategic culture are directly related to its geopolitical positioning, which should enable the strengthening of economic capacities necessary for rapid and efficient development, resistance to modern security threats, and adaptability in the event of changes in the global geopolitical order.
СТРАТЕШКА КОМУНИКАЦИЈА КАО БЕЗБЕДНОСНИ ИЗАЗОВ НА БАЛКАНУ
СТРАТЕШКА КОМУНИКАЦИЈА КАО БЕЗБЕДНОСНИ ИЗАЗОВ НА БАЛКАНУ
(STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION AS A SECURITY CHALLENGE IN THE BALKANS)
- Author(s):Gordana Bukumirić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:113-134
- No. of Pages:22
- Keywords:strategic communication; strategic narrative; influence; national security; strategic culture; perceptions
- Summary/Abstract:Strategic communication represents an important political function of the state in implementing the national security strategy and the broader strategy of influence in international relations. The goal of strategic communication is to build a respectable level of legitimacy for state authority and credibility for state policies, thereby enabling influence in shaping favourable conditions for protecting national interests and achieving national objectives in the strategic environment. To achieve this goal, the state must approach various communication activities systematically and in a coordinated manner. It is necessary to influence the perceptions and behaviour of the target audience and create shared meanings of the past, present, and future of international relations. The strategic narrative is a key element of strategic communication. Its function is to attract attention, direct communication, and create shared meanings to accomplish the main objectives of strategic communication: strengthening national unity and societal resilience, as well as increasing the legitimacy and credibility of the state on the international stage. The author of the paper focuses its research on the formation and projection of strategic narrative. In the first part of the paper, the author will address the theoretical aspect of strategic communication, with a special focus on the importance of narrative within this concept. Then, strategic narratives of the Republic of Serbia and neighbouring countries will be analysed in the context of security, socio-political, and cultural-historical conditions to assess their impact on regional security. In the final part, the author will argue that the effectiveness of a strategic narrative depends on the assessment of the strategic context, the recognition and acceptance of one’s own identity, and the socio-cultural characteristics of the target audience. Whether strategic communication becomes a source of new security threats or an effective tool for achieving strategic objectives mainly depends on the extent to which the strategic narrative respects the identity features and strategic culture of the target audience, as well as the strategic context in which the communication takes place—determined, as always, by the distribution of power among the great powers.
СЛАБОСТИ ПОЛИТИКЕ ПРОШИРЕЊА ЕВРОПСКЕ УНИЈЕ НА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ
СЛАБОСТИ ПОЛИТИКЕ ПРОШИРЕЊА ЕВРОПСКЕ УНИЈЕ НА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ
(WEAKNESSES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S ENLARGEMENT POLICY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS)
- Author(s):Milovan R. Subotić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Geopolitics
- Page Range:135-152
- No. of Pages:18
- Keywords:Enlargement policy; EU; Western Balkans; weaknesses; Russia; China; Turkey
- Summary/Abstract:The European Union’s (EU) enlargement process for the Western Balkans represents one of the key instruments for fostering political stabilisation and democratic consolidation in the region following the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Although the EU formally upholds a policy of open doors, numerous indicators signal a stagnation in this process. Despite official commitments to accession, tangible progress among the countries of the region remains limited, while public enthusiasm for EU membership is steadily declining. This paper aims to analyse the main weaknesses of the EU’s enlargement policy for the Western Balkans, focusing on institutional, political, and geopolitical dimensions. The shortcomings of the regional states are also examined, in accordance with the paraphrased maxim that both success and failure require the involvement of two sides. The influence of other geopolitical actors, such as Russia, China, and Turkey, on the Western Balkan states, resulting from the EU’s and local elites’ failures, warrants particular scholarly attention. This paper concludes that the current trajectory of the enlargement policy poses a serious threat to the stability and European future of the Western Balkans. Rather than formally abandoning the process, the EU relies on mechanisms of delay and increasingly stringent conditions, thereby eroding trust in the accession path. If the Union wishes to preserve its geopolitical influence in the region, it must reform its approach, ensure greater transparency, and renew its political commitment to enlargement. Evidently, the EU’s enlargement policy for the Western Balkans faces significant weaknesses that undermine both its credibility and effectiveness. The lack of political will, inconsistent application of criteria, influence of rival powers, slow-moving bureaucracy, and limited reform outcomes all point to the need for a thorough revision of the enlargement strategy. Without a renewed, coherent, and politically supported vision, the European perspective of the Western Balkans will remain or become even more jeopardised.
РУСИЈА И БАЛКАН: ИЗАЗОВИ У СВЕТЛУ РАТА У УКРАЈИНИ
РУСИЈА И БАЛКАН: ИЗАЗОВИ У СВЕТЛУ РАТА У УКРАЈИНИ
(RUSSIA AND THE BALKANS: CHALLENGES IN THE LIGHT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE)
- Author(s):Nikola Preradović
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:153-173
- No. of Pages:21
- Keywords:Russia; Balkans; strategy; war; Ukraine; region
- Summary/Abstract:The war in Ukraine has a profound impact on international relations, altering the European security architecture built after the end of the Cold War. Longstanding rivalry between Russia and the West escalated into a full-scale war early in 2022, initiating the biggest military conflict on the continent since the Second World War. The consequences of the conflict, felt across Europe, had serious implications for the Balkan Peninsula, where Russia has traditionally played an important role. Ever since supporting independence movements of the Slavic nations in the 19th century, Moscow has been a great power with a strong presence in the region. That changed with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, reducing the influence of weakened Russia in the Balkans. The following decades were marked by a slow return of Russian presence in the region, which was terminated by the Ukraine crisis. This paper analyses the influence of Moscow in the Balkans after the end of the Cold War, with a primary focus on the new challenges arising from the war in Ukraine. Russian regional clout, founded on the country’s position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, cultural ties and energy cooperation, is classified into three phases. First, after the collapse of the USSR, Moscow was primarily a junior partner of the West in regional affairs, unable to significantly alter their outcome. After restoring some of its power in the first two decades of the 21st century, Russia partially revived its influence in the Balkans, positioning itself as a relevant arbiter in regional disputes and a central energy provider while cultivating important cultural ties with local countries. The paradox of the period is that a more active Kremlin policy did not bring the region closer to its sphere of influence due to the Euro-Atlantic strategic choice made by the majority of neighbouring states. The third phase, with roots that could be traced to the very start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, began with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the war’s inception, Russia has faced significant challenges in the region. Following extensive sanctions packages adopted by the US and the EU against Moscow, its position as a primary energy provider in the region has been shaken. Sanctions have endangered the Kremlin both as an energy supplier and majority shareholder of regional energy companies. The fact that almost all Balkan states have aligned with EU policy vis-à-vis Russia reflects its diminishing political influence in the region. Since the beginning of the war, in the sphere of military cooperation, Russia has not been able to organise exercises with Balkan states, most notably Serbia. It has also failed to realise some of its arms sales contracts in the region. All these point to a reduced Russian presence in the Balkans as the immediate consequence of the war in Ukraine. The new reality is reflected in the latest Foreign Policy Concept adopted by the Russian Federation in 2023, which does not even mention the region. The altered circumstances present a challenge for the foreign and security policies of individual Balkan states, particularly those, like Serbia, that cultivate partnerships with multiple and sometimes conflicting actors in international relations. Changing the balance of power in the volatile region requires calibration of Balkan nations’ strategies to protect their national interests in an unpredictable environment.
ЕНЕРГЕТСКА (НЕ) БЕЗБЕДНОСТ ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА У УСЛОВИМА ГЛОБАЛНОГ НАДМЕТАЊА ВЕЛИКИХ СИЛА
ЕНЕРГЕТСКА (НЕ) БЕЗБЕДНОСТ ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА У УСЛОВИМА ГЛОБАЛНОГ НАДМЕТАЊА ВЕЛИКИХ СИЛА
(WESTERN BALKANS ENERGY (IN) SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE GLOBAL COMPETITION BETWEEN GREAT POWERS)
- Author(s):Igor I. Barišić
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:175-196
- No. of Pages:22
- Keywords:geopolitics; energy; security; derussification; risks; challenges
- Summary/Abstract:The war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of global strategic competition among the great powers, creating increasingly pronounced geopolitical polarisation and the intensification of geoeconomic realignment. The changed processes have also spilt over into the energy sphere, changing global energy flows, particularly in the supply of fossil fuels to Europe and the development of renewable energy sources. The acceleration of energy “derussification” of Europe and the intensification of global geopolitical competition in the field of renewable energy sources represent two key geopolitical processes that have a crucial impact on the energy security of the Western Balkans countries. Starting from the mentioned hypothesis, the paper discusses the main geopolitical risks to the energy security of countries in the Western Balkans region, taking into account their energy balances, energy needs, and the development of their energy infrastructure, viewed in relation to the aforementioned geopolitical processes. The war in Ukraine and the strategic competition between the US and China have accelerated the processes of geopolitical polarisation and geostrategic realignment, causing fragmentation of the global market and significant changes in international energy relations. The geopolitical conflict between the West and the Russian Federation over Ukraine has initiated the process of energy “derussification”. It has had negative consequences for the standard of living of the European Union population and undermined the competitiveness of the European economy in the world. The intensification of strategic competition between major powers in the field of renewable energy sources, primarily the US and China, has complicated and slowed down the energy transition of the European Union. To reduce unfavourable economic trends in the zero-emission industry, the European Union has implemented a series of restrictive and incentive measures. These measures support the development of its renewable energy industry and ensure a significant degree of strategic autonomy. The energy systems of the Western Balkans are largely based on the exploitation of coal in thermal power plants and the use of hydropower. On the other hand, the Western Balkans lack domestic sources of oil and gas, making their energy systems sensitive to fluctuations in market prices of these energy sources. There is also the problem of diversifying gas supplies. During the 2021 energy crisis in Europe, the energy systems of the Western Balkans were highly vulnerable to disruptions in the energy market. In addition, the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation, due to the war in Ukraine, generated problems in the supply of oil and gas to the Western Balkans countries. Due to the geopolitical conflict with the Russian Federation and strategic competition with China, the US and the European Union are seeking to displace „malignant” Russian and „corrosive” Chinese influence from the Western Balkans, considering this area an exclusive zone of transatlantic interests in which the mentioned powers seek to destabilise and undermine the security of the region. By purchasing NIS, Russia has gained a dominant position in oil exports in Serbia and the Western Balkans. Most of the natural gas consumed in the Western Balkans originates from Russia, and Russian companies own the infrastructure for gas transit and storage in the region. In an effort to reduce Russian influence on gas supply, the US and the European Union work intensively to encourage the diversification of the region’s supply of this energy source. They advocate for the construction of gas interconnections and regasification stations. Although China has utilised its economic capacities and technological capabilities to invest and engage its companies in certain infrastructure energy projects in the region, its withdrawal from the project for the modernisation and expansion of the capacity of existing thermal power plants is noticeable. According to Western assessments, the activities of Russia and China in the energy sector are in contradiction with the green transition policy pursued by the European Union in the Western Balkans. The escalation of the conflict between the West and the Russian Federation over gas supplies favours the use of coal in the region’s energy systems. It is unlikely that gas can serve as a transitional fuel for the transition of energy systems from coal to renewable energy sources. Due to certain geopolitical circumstances and high energy prices, the countries of the region are focused on ensuring their energy security. The European Union policy is focused on preventing external actors from achieving dominance in energy supplies and using energy as an instrument for power projection. The energy transition process in the Western Balkans shifts to the construction of solar power plants and wind farms. In the absence of European investment in the green energy sector of the Western Balkans, other actors have taken advantage of the existing vacuum, primarily due to the influence of Chinese state capital in the construction of hydroelectric power plants and wind farms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is a noticeable political polarisation regarding investments in the energy sector in individual Western Balkan countries, with some major powers attempting to crowd out their competitors and achieve dominance in the region.
ТУРСКО ПРИБЛИЖАВАЊЕ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЈИ „БРИКС” – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
ТУРСКО ПРИБЛИЖАВАЊЕ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЈИ „БРИКС” – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
(TURKEY’S JOINING THE BRICS ORGANISATION – A CHALLENGE TO THE INTERESTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIА)
- Author(s):Milinko S. Vračar
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Geopolitics
- Page Range:197-221
- No. of Pages:25
- Keywords:Serbia; Turkey; Russia; China; BRICS; challenge; interests
- Summary/Abstract:Analysts view military engagement as a significant characteristic of Turkey’s foreign policy activism in recent decades, primarily through the framework of the complex macro-ideological doctrine of neo-Ottomanism. As an antithesis to secularist Kemalism, neo-Ottomanism aims to rehabilitate Ottoman history and promote Islamic values within Turkish society. Externally, it aims to disseminate Turkish influence among the states of the post-Ottoman area. Although the neo-Ottoman component of Turkish foreign policy has been present for a long time, both regionally and globally, its political reach remains limited, primarily due to the economic and social problems within Turkish society. As economic development contributed to the initial growth of Turkey’s foreign policy self-confidence, financial issues are now significantly hindering its progress. They weaken Turkey’s international presence, forcing it to balance between East and West today. The recent announcement of Turkey’s accession to BRICS should also be viewed in this light. Although there is still no official confirmation of this act, opinions are widely circulated in the media about what this move will bring to Turkey and how it will affect the current global restructuring. They range from the opinion that it will represent a revolutionary event by which Turkey will break the chain within the NATO structure to the conclusion that it is just another in a series of bluffs in Turkey’s foreign policy. If Turkey joins BRICS, it will be the first NATO member to join the non-Western bloc led by Russia and China. It will certainly be a symbolic event, not only for Turkey and BRICS but also for NATO and the entire Western bloc. Deeper analyses indicate that Turkey’s eventual membership in BRICS would not fundamentally alter East-West relations. In the atmosphere of sensationalist narratives about possible outcomes, we should not forget that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasises Turkey’s intention to build relations with both the East and the West equally, based on the principle of mutual benefit. Turkey must make such a move to secure new investments for its failing economy. But it does not renounce NATO membership. Thus, it is unlikely that its membership in BRICS will change the geopolitical axis between East and West. Turkey’s entry into BRICS would undoubtedly have a significant impact on Serbia. On the economic front, it could open up new opportunities for trade and investment. On the political front, it would create a more complex context for balancing between different geopolitical players. Serbia must approach these changes carefully to take advantage of the potential economic benefits without jeopardising its relations with the EU and other key partners. Since Turkey’s membership in BRICS would not automatically mean leaving NATO, Turkey would continue to project its hard power in the Balkans and support Kosovo’s independence through the Western Alliance. In this, Turkey would not encounter determined resistance from Russia, which would, thereby, concede to Turkey due to cooperation in other areas of greater importance for its interests.
САЈБЕР НАПАДИ КАО СТРАТЕГИЈСКИ ИНСТРУМЕНТ СПОЉНЕ ПОЛИТИКЕ: ЗАПАДНИ БАЛКАН У ЕРИ ХИБРИДНОГ РАТА
САЈБЕР НАПАДИ КАО СТРАТЕГИЈСКИ ИНСТРУМЕНТ СПОЉНЕ ПОЛИТИКЕ: ЗАПАДНИ БАЛКАН У ЕРИ ХИБРИДНОГ РАТА
(CYBERATTACKS AS A STRATEGIC INSTRUMENT OF FOREIGN POLICY: THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE ERA OF HYBRID WARFARE)
- Author(s):Aleksandar Bogićević M.
- Language:Serbian
- Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, ICT Information and Communications Technologies, Geopolitics
- Page Range:223-245
- No. of Pages:23
- Keywords:cyber warfare; hybrid warfare; foreign policy; cybersecurity; Western Balkans
- Summary/Abstract:Raising tensions between the United States, the dominant power in the existing international order, and its challengers, mainly China, Russia, and Iran, deteriorated the stability of the global order and, consequently, international security. The role of cyber threats in fostering such an unsafe atmosphere is constantly increasing. They become increasingly common among states, inflicting damage to other actors and influencing their political decision-making processes. The lack of conclusive evidence about perpetrators of cyberattacks and the possibility of denying and deflecting responsibility for them make cyberspace an ideal place for state and non-state actors to focus on conducting operations in a „grey area”. An additional challenge for European states was created with the beginning of the war in Ukraine, starting a new phase in cyberspace war, characterised by an increasing number of attacks and sophistication. To increase their capacity for conducting cyber operations while maintaining the possibility of denying responsibility for them, the growing importance in cyberspace is given to hacker groups that cooperate to some extent with states, thereby taking on the role of cyber proxies. Such a complex and increasingly unstable international order also affects the Western Balkans states, which are alarmingly exposed to sophisticated cyberattacks from foreign actors to which they cannot respond. The reasons behind these attacks can be linked to the foreign policies and positions of these states on significant international issues, including backing the Iranian opposition, preserving military and political neutrality, and aiding Ukraine’s war efforts. These attacks, which focus on critical infrastructure such as state institutions, state-owned enterprises, and citizens’ data, pose a significant security risk to the entire society, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced cybersecurity measures. This paper aims to identify and analyse the strategic utilisation of cyberattacks by other states, primarily great powers, focusing on implications for the Western Balkans states. After the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, several sophisticated cyberattacks by non-state cyber proxy actors aimed at the Western Balkan countries did severe damage to government institutions in several cases (Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia, especially), while Serbia was hit with a combination of attacks on institutions and state enterprises. In all cases, attacks interrupted the work of institutions (in the case of Montenegro, for several months), leaked undisclosed state documents (as in Albania and Serbia) or endangered citizens’ data. These attacks have shown several important trends in global cybersecurity: first, cyberattacks became a popular option for „punishing „states for their political stances on specific questions; second, everybody can be a potential target, so everybody must be vigilant and ready for defence; and last, trying to punish perpetrators of attacks is almost impossible, particularly if we take into account the fact that attackers are cyber proxies under the protection of other governments, giving them immunity from persecution. Because retaliation is impossible, the Western Balkan states must find different solutions to upgrade their cyber defence. The template for conducting a strong defence in cyberspace can be seen in Ukraine, which survived for more than three years in the digital space, despite powerful Russian cyberattacks. Building international cooperation with state and non-state actors could represent a key element of defence in the digital world. Besides, building internal capacities by raising awareness through education must become a crucial aspect of cyber defence, particularly when most attacks target individuals as the weakest link in the cyber defence network. No indicator suggests that the future will bring fewer attacks by cyber proxies, especially with the introduction of artificial intelligence, so countries must be prepared for an even more unstable cyber world and more sophisticated cyber threats.
