ЕНЕРГЕТСКА (НЕ) БЕЗБЕДНОСТ ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА У УСЛОВИМА ГЛОБАЛНОГ НАДМЕТАЊА ВЕЛИКИХ СИЛА
WESTERN BALKANS ENERGY (IN) SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE GLOBAL COMPETITION BETWEEN GREAT POWERS

Author(s): Igor I. Barišić
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: geopolitics; energy; security; derussification; risks; challenges
Summary/Abstract: The war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of global strategic competition among the great powers, creating increasingly pronounced geopolitical polarisation and the intensification of geoeconomic realignment. The changed processes have also spilt over into the energy sphere, changing global energy flows, particularly in the supply of fossil fuels to Europe and the development of renewable energy sources. The acceleration of energy “derussification” of Europe and the intensification of global geopolitical competition in the field of renewable energy sources represent two key geopolitical processes that have a crucial impact on the energy security of the Western Balkans countries. Starting from the mentioned hypothesis, the paper discusses the main geopolitical risks to the energy security of countries in the Western Balkans region, taking into account their energy balances, energy needs, and the development of their energy infrastructure, viewed in relation to the aforementioned geopolitical processes. The war in Ukraine and the strategic competition between the US and China have accelerated the processes of geopolitical polarisation and geostrategic realignment, causing fragmentation of the global market and significant changes in international energy relations. The geopolitical conflict between the West and the Russian Federation over Ukraine has initiated the process of energy “derussification”. It has had negative consequences for the standard of living of the European Union population and undermined the competitiveness of the European economy in the world. The intensification of strategic competition between major powers in the field of renewable energy sources, primarily the US and China, has complicated and slowed down the energy transition of the European Union. To reduce unfavourable economic trends in the zero-emission industry, the European Union has implemented a series of restrictive and incentive measures. These measures support the development of its renewable energy industry and ensure a significant degree of strategic autonomy. The energy systems of the Western Balkans are largely based on the exploitation of coal in thermal power plants and the use of hydropower. On the other hand, the Western Balkans lack domestic sources of oil and gas, making their energy systems sensitive to fluctuations in market prices of these energy sources. There is also the problem of diversifying gas supplies. During the 2021 energy crisis in Europe, the energy systems of the Western Balkans were highly vulnerable to disruptions in the energy market. In addition, the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation, due to the war in Ukraine, generated problems in the supply of oil and gas to the Western Balkans countries. Due to the geopolitical conflict with the Russian Federation and strategic competition with China, the US and the European Union are seeking to displace „malignant” Russian and „corrosive” Chinese influence from the Western Balkans, considering this area an exclusive zone of transatlantic interests in which the mentioned powers seek to destabilise and undermine the security of the region. By purchasing NIS, Russia has gained a dominant position in oil exports in Serbia and the Western Balkans. Most of the natural gas consumed in the Western Balkans originates from Russia, and Russian companies own the infrastructure for gas transit and storage in the region. In an effort to reduce Russian influence on gas supply, the US and the European Union work intensively to encourage the diversification of the region’s supply of this energy source. They advocate for the construction of gas interconnections and regasification stations. Although China has utilised its economic capacities and technological capabilities to invest and engage its companies in certain infrastructure energy projects in the region, its withdrawal from the project for the modernisation and expansion of the capacity of existing thermal power plants is noticeable. According to Western assessments, the activities of Russia and China in the energy sector are in contradiction with the green transition policy pursued by the European Union in the Western Balkans. The escalation of the conflict between the West and the Russian Federation over gas supplies favours the use of coal in the region’s energy systems. It is unlikely that gas can serve as a transitional fuel for the transition of energy systems from coal to renewable energy sources. Due to certain geopolitical circumstances and high energy prices, the countries of the region are focused on ensuring their energy security. The European Union policy is focused on preventing external actors from achieving dominance in energy supplies and using energy as an instrument for power projection. The energy transition process in the Western Balkans shifts to the construction of solar power plants and wind farms. In the absence of European investment in the green energy sector of the Western Balkans, other actors have taken advantage of the existing vacuum, primarily due to the influence of Chinese state capital in the construction of hydroelectric power plants and wind farms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is a noticeable political polarisation regarding investments in the energy sector in individual Western Balkan countries, with some major powers attempting to crowd out their competitors and achieve dominance in the region.

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