ТУРСКО ПРИБЛИЖАВАЊЕ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЈИ „БРИКС” – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
TURKEY’S JOINING THE BRICS ORGANISATION – A CHALLENGE TO THE INTERESTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIА

Author(s): Milinko S. Vračar
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: Serbia; Turkey; Russia; China; BRICS; challenge; interests
Summary/Abstract: Analysts view military engagement as a significant characteristic of Turkey’s foreign policy activism in recent decades, primarily through the framework of the complex macro-ideological doctrine of neo-Ottomanism. As an antithesis to secularist Kemalism, neo-Ottomanism aims to rehabilitate Ottoman history and promote Islamic values within Turkish society. Externally, it aims to disseminate Turkish influence among the states of the post-Ottoman area. Although the neo-Ottoman component of Turkish foreign policy has been present for a long time, both regionally and globally, its political reach remains limited, primarily due to the economic and social problems within Turkish society. As economic development contributed to the initial growth of Turkey’s foreign policy self-confidence, financial issues are now significantly hindering its progress. They weaken Turkey’s international presence, forcing it to balance between East and West today. The recent announcement of Turkey’s accession to BRICS should also be viewed in this light. Although there is still no official confirmation of this act, opinions are widely circulated in the media about what this move will bring to Turkey and how it will affect the current global restructuring. They range from the opinion that it will represent a revolutionary event by which Turkey will break the chain within the NATO structure to the conclusion that it is just another in a series of bluffs in Turkey’s foreign policy. If Turkey joins BRICS, it will be the first NATO member to join the non-Western bloc led by Russia and China. It will certainly be a symbolic event, not only for Turkey and BRICS but also for NATO and the entire Western bloc. Deeper analyses indicate that Turkey’s eventual membership in BRICS would not fundamentally alter East-West relations. In the atmosphere of sensationalist narratives about possible outcomes, we should not forget that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasises Turkey’s intention to build relations with both the East and the West equally, based on the principle of mutual benefit. Turkey must make such a move to secure new investments for its failing economy. But it does not renounce NATO membership. Thus, it is unlikely that its membership in BRICS will change the geopolitical axis between East and West. Turkey’s entry into BRICS would undoubtedly have a significant impact on Serbia. On the economic front, it could open up new opportunities for trade and investment. On the political front, it would create a more complex context for balancing between different geopolitical players. Serbia must approach these changes carefully to take advantage of the potential economic benefits without jeopardising its relations with the EU and other key partners. Since Turkey’s membership in BRICS would not automatically mean leaving NATO, Turkey would continue to project its hard power in the Balkans and support Kosovo’s independence through the Western Alliance. In this, Turkey would not encounter determined resistance from Russia, which would, thereby, concede to Turkey due to cooperation in other areas of greater importance for its interests.

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