РУСИЈА И БАЛКАН: ИЗАЗОВИ У СВЕТЛУ РАТА У УКРАЈИНИ
RUSSIA AND THE BALKANS: CHALLENGES IN THE LIGHT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Nikola Preradović
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: Russia; Balkans; strategy; war; Ukraine; region
Summary/Abstract: The war in Ukraine has a profound impact on international relations, altering the European security architecture built after the end of the Cold War. Longstanding rivalry between Russia and the West escalated into a full-scale war early in 2022, initiating the biggest military conflict on the continent since the Second World War. The consequences of the conflict, felt across Europe, had serious implications for the Balkan Peninsula, where Russia has traditionally played an important role. Ever since supporting independence movements of the Slavic nations in the 19th century, Moscow has been a great power with a strong presence in the region. That changed with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, reducing the influence of weakened Russia in the Balkans. The following decades were marked by a slow return of Russian presence in the region, which was terminated by the Ukraine crisis. This paper analyses the influence of Moscow in the Balkans after the end of the Cold War, with a primary focus on the new challenges arising from the war in Ukraine. Russian regional clout, founded on the country’s position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, cultural ties and energy cooperation, is classified into three phases. First, after the collapse of the USSR, Moscow was primarily a junior partner of the West in regional affairs, unable to significantly alter their outcome. After restoring some of its power in the first two decades of the 21st century, Russia partially revived its influence in the Balkans, positioning itself as a relevant arbiter in regional disputes and a central energy provider while cultivating important cultural ties with local countries. The paradox of the period is that a more active Kremlin policy did not bring the region closer to its sphere of influence due to the Euro-Atlantic strategic choice made by the majority of neighbouring states. The third phase, with roots that could be traced to the very start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, began with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the war’s inception, Russia has faced significant challenges in the region. Following extensive sanctions packages adopted by the US and the EU against Moscow, its position as a primary energy provider in the region has been shaken. Sanctions have endangered the Kremlin both as an energy supplier and majority shareholder of regional energy companies. The fact that almost all Balkan states have aligned with EU policy vis-à-vis Russia reflects its diminishing political influence in the region. Since the beginning of the war, in the sphere of military cooperation, Russia has not been able to organise exercises with Balkan states, most notably Serbia. It has also failed to realise some of its arms sales contracts in the region. All these point to a reduced Russian presence in the Balkans as the immediate consequence of the war in Ukraine. The new reality is reflected in the latest Foreign Policy Concept adopted by the Russian Federation in 2023, which does not even mention the region. The altered circumstances present a challenge for the foreign and security policies of individual Balkan states, particularly those, like Serbia, that cultivate partnerships with multiple and sometimes conflicting actors in international relations. Changing the balance of power in the volatile region requires calibration of Balkan nations’ strategies to protect their national interests in an unpredictable environment.

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