Cookies help us deliver our services. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies. Learn more.
Challenges of Regional Security Cover Image

ИЗАЗОВИ РЕГИОНАЛНЕ БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ
Challenges of Regional Security

Contributor(s): Milovan R. Subotić (Editor)
Subject(s): Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: Regional Security; Western Balkan; national security
Summary/Abstract: The modern approach to global, regional and national security requires ever greater multidisciplinary approach in the study of processes and phenomena of importance for the increasingly insecure and unstable world in which we live. Therefore, the complexity, mutual intertwining and continuous dynamics of changes in the content, forms, actors, as well as the localities in which these processes take place, represent a framework within which it is necessary to identify the most significant security challenges of the Western Balkan countries. Bearing in mind that the complex processes of importance for the security of the countries of the region are in a significant correlation with the member states of the European Union, the locational definition of the research problem will, on the pages of this publication, be observed “from the top down,” i.e. the security challenges facing the Union and the way in which they affect the region, which remains the main locational destination of the research, will be analyzed. In the Balkans, where the strategic interests of Central Europe, Eurasia, the Atlantic and the Islamic world intersect, states continue to face numerous intractable security challenges. The achievements of European integration have shown a changing direction in the security consolidation of this area in conditions in which different geopolitical aspirations further complicate the Balkan security milieus.

  • Print-ISBN-13: 978-86-81121-41-2
  • Page Count: 321
  • Publication Year: 2025
  • Language: Serbian
СРБИЈА КАО „РУСКИ САВЕЗНИК”: ИЗГРАДЊА СТРАТЕШКОГ НАРАТИВА О СРБИЈИ У РЕГИОНУ НАКОН ПОЧЕТКА РАТА У УКРАЈИНИ

СРБИЈА КАО „РУСКИ САВЕЗНИК”: ИЗГРАДЊА СТРАТЕШКОГ НАРАТИВА О СРБИЈИ У РЕГИОНУ НАКОН ПОЧЕТКА РАТА У УКРАЈИНИ
(SERBIA AS A “RUSSIAN ALLY”: THE CONSTRUCTION OF STRATEGIC NARRATIVE ON SERBIA IN THE REGION AFTER THE START OF WAR IN UKRAINE)

  • Author(s):Milan Igrutinović
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics, Russian Aggression against Ukraine, Russian war against Ukraine
  • Page Range:13-33
  • No. of Pages:21
  • Keywords:Serbia; strategic narrative; Russia; Western Balkans; war in Ukraine
  • Summary/Abstract:The article examines strategic narratives about the Republic of Serbia as a “Russian ally” in public discourse in some neighbouring countries, with a temporal focus on the period from February 2022, since the beginning of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. In introduction the paper lays out the impact of ongoing Russian attack on Ukraine since February 2022 and the effect on the security landscape in Europe. It then zooms into the regional Balkan politics, on two commonly understood hotspots, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina and briefly sketches the Serbian relation to those hotspots. In the methodological chapter the author starts from the contemporary theoretical definition of strategic narratives as a means of communication by which political actors seek to determine the meaning of the past, present, and future in order to achieve political goals. The author lays out a strategic narrative typology, based on (Miskimmon, O’Loughlin & Roselle, 2013) and sets to query whether local/national strategic narratives in Kosovo and in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Sarajevo) form a narrative alliance (Homolar, Turner, 2023). Then, in two chapters the author cites and analyses numerous statements by public office holders Kosovo and in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Sarajevo) in which Serbia as a whole, or its individual foreign policy positions, are interpreted in terms of the special relationship between Serbia and Russia, while insisting on negative value determinants. The author then points out that this is a multifaceted construction of strategic narratives in which the Republic of Serbia is positioned as a “disruptive factor” in the region, behind which an international engagement to suppress such a factor is openly or covertly desired. The author determines that there are two separate and national strategic narratives, that are tailored towards international audience, that want to leverage their own interpretation of Serbia-Russian relationship. This is based on the connections between the local interests of these actors and the security challenges that arose after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, as a dynamic that is being instrumentalized in regional security issues, in the manner described. The author rejects the hypotheses that there is one strategic narrative or narrative alliance in play, as local/national varieties are important and they address different kinds of practical political issues. Authors calls for further research into similar case studies and for more detailed and nuanced communicology research of regional strategic narratives.
ПОЛИТИКА ЕВРОПСКЕ УНИЈЕ У РАЗВОЈУ И ПРИМЕНИ ВЕШТАЧКЕ ИНТЕЛИГЕНЦИЈЕ У ВОЈНЕ СВРХЕ: ИЗАЗОВИ СТРАТЕШКЕ АУТОНОМИЈЕ, ТЕХНОЛОШКЕ СУВЕРЕНОСТИ И УТИЦАЈ НА ЗАЈЕДНИЧКУ БЕЗБЕДНОСНУ И ОДБРАМБЕНУ ПОЛИТИКУ

ПОЛИТИКА ЕВРОПСКЕ УНИЈЕ У РАЗВОЈУ И ПРИМЕНИ ВЕШТАЧКЕ ИНТЕЛИГЕНЦИЈЕ У ВОЈНЕ СВРХЕ: ИЗАЗОВИ СТРАТЕШКЕ АУТОНОМИЈЕ, ТЕХНОЛОШКЕ СУВЕРЕНОСТИ И УТИЦАЈ НА ЗАЈЕДНИЧКУ БЕЗБЕДНОСНУ И ОДБРАМБЕНУ ПОЛИТИКУ
(THE EUROPEAN UNION’S POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR MILITARY PURPOSES: CHALLENGES OF STRATEGIC AUTONOMY, TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY, AND IMPACT ON THE COMMON SECURITY AND DEFENSE POLICY)

  • Author(s):Vanja Rokvić
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, ICT Information and Communications Technologies, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:35-67
  • No. of Pages:33
  • Keywords:European Union (EU); Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP); Artificial Intelligence (AI); Strategic Autonomy; Technological Sovereignty
  • Summary/Abstract:This paper analyzes the European Union’s (EU) policy on the development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) for military purposes, examining it within the context of strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty and its implications for the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). The primary purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the complex and multidisciplinary field encompassing the technological, legal, ethical, geopolitical, and strategic aspects of applying artificial intelligence for military purposes. This is achieved through an analysis of available literature, strategic documents of the European Union, resolutions of the European Parliament and the European Commission, and relevant research projects. The research highlights the importance of EU initiatives to achieve strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty through investments in research, innovation, and development, mainly via the European Defense Fund and mechanisms for interstate cooperation. However, it identifies significant challenges, such as the lack of an integrated legal framework, technological heterogeneity among member states, and limited cooperation in military research. The paper underscores risks related to the EU’s dependence on external sources for critical technologies, the consequences of misaligned national regulations, and the lack of interoperability in military systems. These factors constrain the EU’s ability to effectively employ AI in its security and defense missions. While AI offers significant opportunities, such as enhancing early warning systems, increasing operational mobility, and optimizing efficiency, varying threat perceptions, uneven technological development, and regulatory gaps further complicate its implementation. The paper concludes that the effective integration of AI into the CSDP requires the establishment of clear legal and ethical frameworks, harmonizing member states’ strategic priorities, and intensified joint investments in research and development. Also, to fully comprehend this complex subject, it is essential to conduct a thorough investigation addressing several key questions, such as the development of a common legal and ethical framework to regulate the advancement and application of artificial intelligence (AI) for military purposes; the effectiveness of existing funding instruments, such as the European Defense Fund, and potential models to stimulate more significant investment in long-term and collaborative projects; the degree of the European Union’s dependence on external sources for critical technologies and raw materials; and how less developed member states can leverage AI to enhance their defense capacities. Furthermore, it is crucial to analyze the impact of varying technological capabilities and strategies of member states on interoperability and coordination within the CSDP, ways to integrate new technologies into CSDP missions and operations, including the use of unmanned systems and AI-based analytical tools, and the capacities and challenges faced by third countries, such as the Republic of Serbia, in participating in the CSDP. This research will contribute to a better understanding of the impact of AI on European security and defense while opening avenues for future research in this domain. At the same time, this research opens up opportunities to initiate new projects aimed at assessing the readiness and capabilities of third countries, such as the Republic of Serbia, in implementing CSDP missions and operations in the context of the development and application of new technologies, particularly those based on artificial intelligence.
ИЗАЗОВИ АМЕРИЧКИХ ОДНОСА ПРЕМА БАЛКАНУ

ИЗАЗОВИ АМЕРИЧКИХ ОДНОСА ПРЕМА БАЛКАНУ
(CHALLENGES OF AMERICAN RELATIONS TO THE BALKANS)

  • Author(s):Veljko Blagojevic
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:69-87
  • No. of Pages:19
  • Keywords:The strategic appearance of the USA; the redistribution of global power; the Ukrainian war; the Middle East conflict; the security architecture of the Balkans
  • Summary/Abstract:It will not be mistaken if it is stated that since the United States gained its independence, its foreign policy performance has been crucially determined by the concepts of manifest destiny, exceptionalism, freedom and democracy. The entire history of American strategic performance in international politics is determined by these concepts, but also by rational geopolitical interests, which provides an example of balance and an answer to the question of why they became a great power and global hegemon. At the beginning of the crisis in the territory of the former SFRY, the United States supported the integrity of Yugoslavia, through support for the reform-minded Prime Minister Antе Marković and the effort to develop Yugoslavia as a complete democratic state. The Americans left it to the European Community to manage the crisis in Yugoslavia, and it had neither the mechanisms nor the potential to successfully implement it. The leaders of the secessionist republics managed to present the authorities in Serbia to the West as communist and authoritarian, thereby attracting the USA to their side, which during the 1990s engaged against Serbian interests in the process of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The NATO Air Force was engaged against the Serbian forces in Bosnia in 1995, and in 1999 against the FR Yugoslavia, for the „protection of the Albanian people in Kosovo and Metohija”. America, in accordance with democratic and anti-authoritarian values, supported Bosnians and Albanians from Kosovo and Metohija and this support is still present today, and the question remains for the Serbian factor why it did not engage more with diplomatic means to better represent its interests. NATO’s Open-Door policy, which contributed to the dominance of the United States in Europe after the end of the Cold War, was essentially the cause of the start of the conflict in Ukraine. After unsuccessful (insincere) attempts to resolve the conflict peacefully, Russia intervened militarily in Ukraine in 2022, which turned into a large-scale armed conflict. The West, led by the USA, united in support of Ukraine and provided it with military, economic, political and all other assistance in the conflict with Russia, which has been subject to many sanctions. Given that the parties to the conflict are adamant in their efforts to win this conflict, whatever that means, it is certain that the outcome of this war will affect the regional and global distribution of power. After the overthrow of Milošević from power in 2000, the United States focused its foreign policy priorities on more important regions, and assigned the European Union the role of stabilizing the post-conflict region of the Balkans. However, this time they did not repeat the mistake they made at the beginning of the crisis in Yugoslavia and are monitoring the key processes in which they intervene, discreetly or publicly, when the stability of the region is threatened. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the importance of the Balkans is increasing in the strategic calculations of the United States, in the context of “overtaking China and containing Russia”. In the context of the war in Ukraine, the Balkans is in a close background position, with Romania and Bulgaria facing the war zone, and the US/NATO trying not to allow the access and influence of Russia (but also China) in this region. In this context, viewed from the point of view of the USA, the position of Serbia, as a militarily neutral state, can represent a “platform” for the expansion of influence in the Balkans. However, unlike in the nineties, Washington still tries to approach Serbia with diplomatic means and with greater trust and ensure stability in the region. It seems that it is understood in Washington that Serbia has learned the lessons of the 1990s and that its strategic approach is predictable, regardless of the constant accusations from most of the capitals of the former republics of the SFRY, especially Zagreb and Sarajevo, as well as from the temporary authorities in Pristina. The US has only changed its means, but its goals in the Balkans have not changed since the beginning of the crisis in the SFRY area, and its performance is aligned with its key values and geopolitical interests, regardless of the fact that the geopolitical component of American action is mostly emphasized in Serbia.
МЕКА И ПАМЕТНА МОЋ ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА – УТОПИЈА ИЛИ МОГУЋИ ОДГОВОР НА ИЗАЗОВЕ БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ?

МЕКА И ПАМЕТНА МОЋ ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА – УТОПИЈА ИЛИ МОГУЋИ ОДГОВОР НА ИЗАЗОВЕ БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ?
(SOFT AND SMART POWER OF THE WESTERN BALKANS - UTOPIA OR A POSSIBLE ANSWER TO SECURITY CHALLENGES?)

  • Author(s):Miroslav Mitrović
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:89-115
  • No. of Pages:27
  • Keywords:Western Balkans; security challenges; soft power; smart power
  • Summary/Abstract:The Western Balkans, with its rich yet complex history, holds immense potential to become a cohesive and integral part of the European family. This transformation relies heavily on the principles of soft power, emphasizing trust-building, cooperation, and solidarity. These values must underpin the relationships both within the region and between the Western Balkans and the European Union. Overcoming Historical Challenges representing the legacy of past conflicts and divisions remains a significant hurdle. However, the path to the region’s brighter future lies in fostering peace, reconciliation, and dialogue. By embracing restorative justice practices, the Western Balkans can confront historical grievances, addressing issues of accountability while promoting forgiveness and understanding. Encouraging inter-ethnic cooperation is crucial to healing societal divides, building trust among diverse communities, and laying the groundwork for lasting harmony. Additionally, economic and political integration with the European Union stands as a cornerstone for the region’s stability. Achieving full EU membership would not only anchor the Western Balkans firmly within Europe’s democratic and economic frameworks but also provide the structural support needed to ensure political stability, safeguard human rights, and promote sustainable development. Culture and science offer powerful tools for regional unity. Developing shared cultural projects, such as cross-border festivals, heritage preservation initiatives, and regional storytelling platforms, can help create a collective identity. Promoting shared historical narratives— rooted in mutual respect—will enable the region to reconcile differing perspectives and foster a sense of common destiny. Scientific collaboration is equally vital. Joint research projects, particularly in technology and innovation, can enhance the region’s competitiveness on a global scale. Investment in research and development not only drives economic growth but also positions the Western Balkans as a hub for innovation. Furthermore, partnerships in environmental science can address regional challenges like climate change and resource management, aligning the Western Balkans with EU sustainability goals. A unified approach to security is essential for lasting peace and stability in the region. Integrating the Western Balkans into broader European security frameworks, including partnerships with NATO and strengthening contributions to EU initiatives like the Western Balkan EU Battlegroup, can enhance regional defense capabilities. Collaborative efforts to combat organized crime, terrorism, and cyber threats will also bolster the security environment, ensuring a safer and more resilient Western Balkans. Economic growth is a critical component of the region’s transformation. Establishing strong economic ties among Western Balkan nations can reduce disparities, enhance trade, and create a robust regional market. Programs like the Berlin Process and the Open Balkan should be expanded to facilitate free movement of goods, services, and people. Investments in infrastructure, energy connectivity, and digital transformation will further support regional integration and global competitiveness. The Western Balkans stands at a crossroads, with the potential to emerge as a stable, democratic, and prosperous region. Achieving this vision requires a coordinated effort among the countries of the region, with strong support from the international community. By leveraging soft power, promoting reconciliation, and deepening ties with the European Union, the Western Balkans can secure its place as a vital and integrated part of Europe’s future. Ultimately, the region’s journey toward unity and progress is not just about political alignment but about building a shared sense of purpose and identity. With sustained efforts in peacebuilding, cultural exchange, scientific innovation, and security cooperation, the Western Balkans can transcend its challenges and become a beacon of resilience and growth within the European landscape.
ЕНЕРГЕТСКА БЕЗБЕДНОСТ РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ У ИЗМЕЊЕНОМ ГЛОБАЛНОМ ОКРУЖЕЊУ

ЕНЕРГЕТСКА БЕЗБЕДНОСТ РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ У ИЗМЕЊЕНОМ ГЛОБАЛНОМ ОКРУЖЕЊУ
(ENERGY SECURITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA IN CHANGED GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT)

  • Author(s):Igor I. Barišić
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy, Security and defense, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:117-136
  • No. of Pages:20
  • Keywords:geopolitics; energy; security; environment; risks
  • Summary/Abstract:The war in Ukraine has caused tectonic shifts in the international system, altering global energy flows and accelerating the development of new technologies in the energy sector. In the chaotic, multipolar world that is emerging, energy has become a significant instrument for power projection and global competition. In such conditions, the geopolitical risks arising from polarization and strategic competition between great powers have greatly changed the perceptions of energy security, especially of small and energy-dependent states. Starting from the aforementioned hypothesis, the paper analyzes the main geopolitical risks to the energy security of the Republic of Serbia, taking into account the specificities of our country in terms of the energy balance, current and future energy needs, as well as the development of energy infrastructure in Serbia and the region. The energy security of the Republic of Serbia is largely determined by the process of energy “derussification” of Europe, the acceleration of the energy transition process of the European Union, and the intensification of strategic competition between the West and China in the field of development of the renewable energy industry. Resolving the status of Gazprom on the Serbian market will be the primary geopolitical challenge for the Republic of Serbia in the field of energy security in the coming period. The introduction of sanctions against NIS by the US and its allies in early 2025 places the Republic of Serbia in a very difficult international position, given the limited options for supplying oil and its derivatives from non-Russian producers and refiners. The energy security of the Republic of Serbia may also be complicated in the field of gas supply, given the very likely interruption of gas transit through Ukraine and the introduction of Western sanctions on the Russian bank Gazprombank, through which payments for Russian gas coming via the Balkan Stream pipeline are made. Also, the intensification of the West - Russian Federation conflict and US/EU - China strategic competition will have significant consequences in the field of Serbia’s development of renewable energy sources and peacfull nuclear potential. The need to quickly gain strategic autonomy in relation to the Chinese competitor in the field of critical raw materials has prompted the European Union to put additional pressure on Serbia regarding the lithium mining project, although there are serious reservations among the Serbian public regarding the application of innovative technology for the “Jadarit” extraction and lithium processing and justified fears that environmental protection standards will be violated. In addition, the intensification of cooperation between the USA and the European Union in the field of renewable energy sources may disrupt bilateral Serbian-Chinese relations in this area. Additionally, Serbia’s decision to establish concrete cooperation with France in the field of peacfull nuclear potential development may affect future relations with the Russian Federation, given its previous interest in cooperation with the Republic of Serbia in the sphere of peaceful use of nuclear energy. It is obvious that Serbia’s foreign policy balancing in relations with the West and the East is no longer sustainable, as it was in the period before the war in Ukraine.
РЕВИЗИОНИЗАМ КАО ИЗАЗОВ РЕГИОНАЛНОЈ БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ: ТЕОРИЈСКА ПАРАДИГМА И СТУДИЈА СЛУЧАЈА ТУРСКЕ

РЕВИЗИОНИЗАМ КАО ИЗАЗОВ РЕГИОНАЛНОЈ БЕЗБЕДНОСТИ: ТЕОРИЈСКА ПАРАДИГМА И СТУДИЈА СЛУЧАЈА ТУРСКЕ
(REVISIONISM AS A CHALLENGE TO REGIONAL SECURITY: THEORETICAL PARADIGM AND CASE STUDY OF TURKEY)

  • Author(s):Dušan S. Spasojević
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:139-161
  • No. of Pages:23
  • Keywords:revisionism; international relations; security studies; theory; realism; doctrine; strategy; neo-Ottomanism; Turkey
  • Summary/Abstract:Revisionism represents a significant and widely debated topic within the social sciences and humanities, spanning fields such as history, literature, political philosophy, and law. It is particularly relevant in international relations and security studies due to its connections with contemporary global crises, such as the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the increasing prevalence of political narratives advocating for the redrawing of borders in the foreign policies of major powers. By nature, the concept of revisionism is problematic, as it is often tied to modern political agendas, making it a frequent subject of debate and conflicting interpretations. Frequently seen as a political objective and a leading cause of war—a view shared by many prominent historians and theorists of international relations—revisionism is situated at the intersection of scholarly and political knowledge. Its dual character particularly affects disciplines like history, international relations, and security studies, where research often intertwines academic work with the interests of states, political organisations, or influential social groups. These groups, whose priorities often hinder objective investigation, tend to instrumentalise revisionism for political or ideological goals. Considering these complexities, the primary aim of this paper is to clearly and thoroughly conceptualise and define revisionism, making it suitable for operationalisation and empirical research within international relations and security studies. In this regard, the research identifies the fundamental definitional characteristics of revisionism and provides a detailed critical review of the most significant theoretical approaches to the phenomenon, particularly from the standpoint of the realist school of thought. The theoretical paradigm is complemented by a case study on contemporary Turkish revisionism. Using qualitative analysis and triangulation of various data sources, the case study examines the processes of formulating, articulating, and implementing revisionist foreign policy objectives and tests the core assumptions of realism in explaining revisionism. From the realist perspective, revisionism relies on several key premises: the anarchic structure of the international system, power as the essence of international relations, and the need to differentiate states based on their objectives. Within an anarchic international system, states are compelled to accumulate power as the primary method of ensuring their security and autonomy. The more states prioritise these values, the greater the likelihood that they will adopt revisionist behaviour. The most reliable parameter for identifying revisionist states is their relationship to power, with changes in relative power serving as the starting point for explaining revisionism. Rising states often pursue revisionist goals, particularly when, along with their allies, they possess greater overall power than their adversaries. Such states are influenced by both domestic and international factors in formulating their foreign policy objectives, but they will adopt revisionist plans only when they assess that they have realistic prospects to implement them. Since power is the central concept upon which realism is based, international law plays a secondary role in defining and analysing revisionism. The case study of Turkish revisionism reveals its key characteristics. An examination of discourse, doctrine, strategy and practice in Turkish foreign policy indicates that revisionism is its primary goal, with animus dominandi as its fundamental driving force. As a limited-range aggressor, Turkey opportunistically selects strategies that enable it to align with stronger powers in order to achieve territorial objectives. Rooted in neo-Ottoman ideology and the myth of the Ottoman Empire, Turkish revisionism is largely a product of dissatisfaction with its current international position and is shaped by the interaction of internal and international security factors. The implementation of revisionist policy heavily depends on Turkey’s readiness to await favourable opportunities. In the Balkans, Turkey perceives the natural political compatibility between Serbia and Greece as the primary threat to achieving its ambitions. In this context, regional security depends on a balance between revisionist and status quo forces. If status quo states, such as Serbia and Greece, maintain an advantage over revisionist coalitions in the Balkans, the regional security system will remain stable. Conversely, if the revisionist coalition overpowers the defenders of the status quo, the system will undergo change. This raises the question of when, how, and to whose benefit such a change will occur.
СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКИ НАСТУП ТУРСКЕ НА БАЛКАНУ – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ

СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКИ НАСТУП ТУРСКЕ НА БАЛКАНУ – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
(TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE BALKANS - A CHALLENGE TO THE INTERESTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIА)

  • Author(s):Milinko S. Vračar
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:163-181
  • No. of Pages:19
  • Keywords:Serbia; Turkey; foreign policy; interests; challenge
  • Summary/Abstract:Small countries do not have the luxury of acting spontaneously in international politics, as such behavior typically leads to significant consequences that they cannot easily bear, unlike larger powers. Given this reality, Serbia, as a small country, adopts a cautious approach when formulating and implementing its foreign policy. Serbia’s approach is pragmatic, free from the negative influence of ideological factors, and involves cooperation in areas of mutual interest, even with states that pose a threat to its vital interests. Turkey is one of those countries. Since the 1990s, relations between Serbia and Turkey have been strained by Turkey’s role in the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, its involvement in NATO’s military intervention against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and its ongoing diplomatic and military support for the so-called Republic of Kosovo in its pursuit of independence. However, relations between Belgrade and Ankara began to improve after Erdoğan came to power. Since then, both countries have made efforts to avoid introducing antagonistic elements into their relationship, such as historical legacies or ongoing political disputes, particularly regarding the issue of Kosovo’s so-called independence. These factors are indeed present and significantly strain relations between the two countries, hindering their expansion and deepening. However, Serbia and Turkey behave rationally, guided by the logic of realpolitik. They strive to focus on areas of mutual interest, even if those interests are minimal. They help ease tensions between the two countries and enable the realization of mutual political and economic benefits. In this regard, Serbia perceives an opportunity in the pragmatic aspects of Turkish policy in the Balkans. It is aimed at achieving Turkey’s geo-economic and geo-strategic (security) interests, with a primary focus on the physical factors related to the geographical position of the Balkan region. Serbia holds importance for Turkey as it is a central state in the Balkan region, which plays a critical role in Turkey’s economic interests. Specifically, Serbia serves as Turkey’s crucial link to Europe, and more precisely, to the European Union, which is Turkey’s most important economic partner. Consequently, any destabilization within the Balkan region could adversely affect Turkey’s economic interests. Furthermore, it could also impact Turkey’s security concerns by potentially leading to the formation of military alliances among Balkan states with Orthodox populations. Therefore, Turkey’s principal objectives in the Balkans are peace and stability, and its policy in the region is primarily focused on these aims. Turkey’s approach in this area provides Serbia with a valuable opportunity to advance its own political, security, and, most importantly, economic interests. Economic cooperation between the two countries has experienced steady growth since 2010. As a result, recent years have often seen their relations characterized by the public as friendly and close. However, in reality, these relations are primarily pragmatic. These relations are shaped by the current constellation of regional and global forces, and it is clear that under different circumstances, Turkey might be prepared to use hard power to advance its interests in the region. The future development of relations between the two countries will largely depend on Turkey’s geopolitical positioning in a world undergoing significant geopolitical transformations. Current events suggest that Turkey is increasingly aligning with the bloc of states led by Russia and China. This shift could present a favorable opportunity for Serbia, potentially allowing for a revision of Turkish policy regarding the Kosovo issue. However, Turkey is also experiencing deep political divisions due to economic and social challenges. Rising discontent among its citizens is reviving Kemalist and pro-Western ideas. Should these factions come to power, Turkey might abandon its neo-Ottoman foreign policy in favor of a more Atlanticist orientation. This would certainly affect the long-term retention of the existing level of security threat to Serbia or even increase its intensity.
СТРАТЕГИЈА СПОЉАШЊЕГ УРАВНОТЕЖАВАЊА: ИЗАЗОВИ И ПРОБЛЕМИ КОНЦЕПТА У САВРЕМЕНОЈ МЕЂУНАРОДНОЈ ПОЛИТИЦИ

СТРАТЕГИЈА СПОЉАШЊЕГ УРАВНОТЕЖАВАЊА: ИЗАЗОВИ И ПРОБЛЕМИ КОНЦЕПТА У САВРЕМЕНОЈ МЕЂУНАРОДНОЈ ПОЛИТИЦИ
(STRATEGY OF EXTERNAL BALANCING: CHALLENGES AND ISSUES OF THE CONCEPT IN CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL POLITICS)

  • Author(s):Igor Pejić
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):International relations/trade, Security and defense, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:183-202
  • No. of Pages:20
  • Keywords:External balancing; International Relations; Ukraine; Seriba
  • Summary/Abstract:External balancing represents one of the fundamental strategies in international relations theory. The concept has long been present in scholarly debates, likely due to its visibility, that is, the manifestation of this phenomenon in international politics. In other words, measuring phenomena such as alliances and partnerships is relatively easy compared to other aspects related to the balance of power concept. However, this does not imply that the strategy is widely favored by many states. Forming alliances, maintaining them, and engaging in warfare within such alliances is a challenging endeavor with numerous variables that states cannot fully control. While discussions about alliance problems typically focus on the issues alliances face as unified collectives, the most common challenges encountered by allies are, in essence, of an internal nature. In this paper, through a theoretical framework supplemented by historical examples, we have sought to present precisely this. Issues such as entanglement, falling into a trap, abandonment, and chain reactions represent some of the challenges that allies face within an alliance. Even when states form alliances, they rarely have complete trust in their partners. Given the anarchic nature of the international system, all states strive to fulfill their primary strategic interests, which sometimes come at the expense of their allies. In certain cases, smaller powers may attempt to draw larger partners into a conflict to achieve their goals. At times, larger partners will “leave smaller states out in the cold” if they determine that entering a conflict with another power is not in their interest. Finally, as Mearsheimer emphasizes, all states are primarily concerned with relative gains rather than absolute gains. Because of this, even within an alliance, states will evaluate how much others are gaining in comparison to themselves and whether this is beneficial in the long term. The dynamic political environment of the 19th century likely serves as one of the best arenas for examining these allied dilemmas, which we have attempted to explore in the present work. The impact of external balancing should not be overlooked in the contemporary reality of international politics. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has largely confirmed that the external assistance from Western powers to Ukraine is a crucial aspect of the conflict. Although NATO has largely sought to limit its direct involvement in this war, material support has undoubtedly helped the Ukrainian armed forces halt Russian military actions and transform the initial blitzkrieg into a war of attrition. Neutral states in such circumstances must also develop a well-defined policy regarding other alliances. Serbia serves as a clear example here. The hedging strategy that Serbia has implemented in recent years provides a solid foundation upon which its foreign policy can be built. Balancing between major interest blocs in international politics is not an easy task, but it allows Serbia to preserve and achieve its strategic goals in a complex environment where the genuine intentions of partners or potential adversaries cannot be confidently assessed.
ПАМЕТНЕ САНКЦИЈЕ КАО ИЗАЗОВ: АМЕРИЧКЕ CAATSA САНКЦИЈЕ И РЕПУБЛИКА СРБИЈА

ПАМЕТНЕ САНКЦИЈЕ КАО ИЗАЗОВ: АМЕРИЧКЕ CAATSA САНКЦИЈЕ И РЕПУБЛИКА СРБИЈА
(SMART SANCTIONS AS A CHALLENGE: THE U.S. CAATSA SANCTIONS AND THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA)

  • Author(s):Aleksandar Bogićević M.
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
  • Page Range:205-225
  • No. of Pages:21
  • Keywords:CAATSA; smart sanctions; Serbia; neutrality; balancing; United States of America
  • Summary/Abstract:The second and third decades of the 21st century have been marked by a rise in geopolitical tensions, especially between major global powers, leading to a reconfiguration of the international order. Revisionist powers such as Russia and China are challenging the dominance of the West, while the United States and its allies are striving to maintain the existing global balance. In this growing divide between the East and the West, military cooperation has become an important tool of political influence, and a source of new challenges for countries attempting to maintain neutrality. Over time, the gap between East and West has expanded, affecting countries attempting to stay neutral, particularly those with ties to Russia. The implementation of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in August 2017 placed nations cooperating with Russia in a difficult position, especially those in the defense sector. Countries now face the dilemma of continuing their cooperation with Moscow and risking U.S. sanctions or finding new partners. This situation has become more complex after the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, when neutrality was condemned as morally unacceptable, likened to supporting the aggressor—Russia. This shifting dynamic has had significant implications for countries like Serbia, which seeks to balance its relationships between the West and revisionist powers. Serbia’s military cooperation with Russia had already drawn attention before the Ukraine conflict, especially regarding the import of Russian weaponry. After threats of sanctions in 2019, Serbia turned to China to fill the gap left by Russia. China, as a rising challenger to U.S. hegemony, offered itself as a new partner, potentially altering the balance of Serbia’s foreign policy. However, reliance on China could introduce new challenges, particularly if CAATSA sanctions are extended to target China as well. Such a development would increase the pressure on Serbia, limiting its options and complicating its ability to maintain a neutral stance. CAATSA sanctions have proven to be a significant tool in U.S. foreign policy, using America’s global influence to weaken its adversaries, primarily Russia. These sanctions target countries, companies, and individuals involved in defense and security cooperation with these nations. The threat of sanctions has been effective, as seen with Turkey, which faced real consequences for balancing between East and West. This approach illustrates the growing complexity of international relations, where smaller nations, such as Serbia, find themselves caught in the crossfire of great-power competition. Serbia’s position is particularly challenging, given its aspirations to join the European Union while maintaining strong ties with Kremlin. With the outbreak of active conflict in Ukraine, Serbia’s military cooperation with Russia has become increasingly difficult, opening the door for China to step in as a supplier of military equipment. The long-term political consequences of such a decision are significant. If tensions between the U.S. and China continue to rise, Serbia could face further difficulties, as its reliance on China may lead to new pressures from the U.S. to abandon its ties with Beijing, just as it did with Moscow. In conclusion, the expansion of CAATSA sanctions and the rise of geopolitical tensions are reshaping the international order. For countries like Serbia, the decision to remain neutral or align with revisionist powers presents numerous challenges. Serbia’s growing reliance on China could offer a counterbalance to Western pressures, but it also carries significant risks. The future of Serbia’s foreign policy depends on how it navigates the increasingly complex and polarized global environment.
ЕКОЛОШКА ДИПЛОМАТИЈА КАО ИНСТРУМЕНТ ЈАЧАЊА РЕГИОНАЛНЕ САРАДЊЕ: ИЗАЗОВИ И МОГУЋНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕ ЗЕЛЕНЕ АГЕНДЕ НА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ

ЕКОЛОШКА ДИПЛОМАТИЈА КАО ИНСТРУМЕНТ ЈАЧАЊА РЕГИОНАЛНЕ САРАДЊЕ: ИЗАЗОВИ И МОГУЋНОСТИ ПРИМЕНЕ ЗЕЛЕНЕ АГЕНДЕ НА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ
(ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY AS A TOOL FOR STRENGTHENING REGIONAL COOPERATION: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN IMPLEMENTING THE GREEN AGENDA IN THE WESTERN BALKANS)

  • Author(s):Marija Vukadinović
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Supranational / Global Economy, Economic policy, Security and defense, Political Ecology, Economic development
  • Page Range:227-247
  • No. of Pages:21
  • Keywords:climate change; environmental diplomacy; Green Agenda; Western Balkans; regional cooperation
  • Summary/Abstract:This paper underscores the importance of regional cooperation and the need to strengthen environmental diplomacy as a response to global challenges and the creation of a sustainable future. The research concludes that the countries of the Western Balkans should strengthen their diplomatic relations, particularly in the area of environmental diplomacy, and collaborate more effectively to achieve the goals outlined in the European Green Deal and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans. A thorough analysis of the current situation unequivocally indicates that achieving environmental goals independently is an extremely complex challenge for individual countries in the region. Therefore, it is imperative that political elites in the Western Balkans systematically incorporate environmental aspects as one of their strategic priorities. Awareness of the crucial importance of environmental diplomacy and its far-reaching impact on the future of the planet must be significantly elevated across all sectors of society. This clearly indicates that the interests in achieving a sustainable future far exceed individual national interests and require a comprehensive, coordinated, and collective approach at the regional level. In this regard, strengthening regional cooperation in the Western Balkans becomes essential for achieving the goals of the European Green Deal and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, which entails joint efforts to protect the environment and promote sustainable development across the entire region. It is evident that only through intensive regional cooperation and significantly strengthened diplomatic efforts can the countries of the Western Balkans achieve success in the comprehensive implementation of the Green Agenda and meet the European Union’s high environmental standards. This paper strongly advocates for all Western Balkan states to systematically develop their institutional and human capacities in environmental diplomacy and to consistently align their actions with the principles of sustainable development. The establishment of effective and well-coordinated environmental diplomacy can and should serve as both a model and a catalyst for future comprehensive regional cooperation. At the same time, heightened awareness of the crucial importance of collective action will be a key factor in the global fight against climate change and environmental challenges. Although this research is not theoretically grounded in the concept of planetary democracy, highlighting Jacques Attali’s vision serves as a valuable recommendation for further exploration within the scientific community. Environmental diplomacy, in particular, can be interpreted through the lens of his notion of global responsibility and coordinated action, providing a framework for a more in-depth analysis of its role in addressing contemporary challenges. Since this concept aligns closely with sustainable development and regional cooperation approaches, further academic inquiry—especially in the context of the Western Balkans— could offer valuable insights, as strategic engagement in this field may yield significant long-term benefits. Namely, in A Brief History of the Future, Jacques Attali underscores the need for planetary democracy as a counterforce to market dynamics, steering global focus toward humanity’s most pressing challenges. He argues that this form of governance should prioritize addressing human madness, climate change, deadly diseases, social alienation, and poverty, shifting the global agenda toward the creation of a more just, sustainable, and healthier society founded on collective responsibility for the planet and all its inhabitants (Attali, 2011:257). Although such thinking may seem utopian, it could serve as a guideline for creating more sustainable policies aimed at the region’s long-term development. In this context, the Western Balkan states could strive for a model of cooperation that transcends narrow national interests and focuses on addressing common challenges, such as climate change, energy security, social cohesion, and economic sustainability. While the global concept of skilled environmental diplomacy may seem unattainable, a regional approach based on solidarity, shared responsibility, and long-term strategic planning could significantly contribute to the stability and prosperity of the Western Balkans.
ПОТЕНЦИЈАЛ КОРУПЦИЈЕ КАО БАЛКАНСКОГ БЕЗБЕДНОСНОГ ИЗАЗОВА

ПОТЕНЦИЈАЛ КОРУПЦИЈЕ КАО БАЛКАНСКОГ БЕЗБЕДНОСНОГ ИЗАЗОВА
(THE POTENTIAL OF CORRUPTION LIKE THE BALKANS SECURITY CHALLENGE)

  • Author(s):Milan S. Milutinović
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Corruption - Transparency - Anti-Corruption
  • Page Range:249-271
  • No. of Pages:23
  • Keywords:corruption; security; Balkans; organized crime; transparency; political stability; European Union
  • Summary/Abstract:Corruption in the Balkans represents a deeply entrenched and multidimensional problem that manifests in negative effects on economic development, social cohesion, and political stability in the region. This article examines corruption as a significant security threat, exploring its complex connections with other challenges, such as organized crime, terrorism, illegal migration, and environmental degradation. The primary aim of the paper is to investigate the interplay between corruption and security by identifying key weaknesses in institutional mechanisms to combat corruption and evaluating existing strategies that could strengthen institutional resilience and regional stability. The analysis employs a multidisciplinary qualitative methodology that includes case studies of Croatia and Romania. These two countries serve as examples of relative success in combating corruption, thanks to a combination of political will, support from the European Union, judicial independence, and robust civic activism. Special attention is given to structural aspects of corruption, with state capture identified as the most dangerous form—a phenomenon where corrupt networks seize control of institutions to pursue private interests. This form of corruption not only undermines the rule of law but also deepens social inequalities, erodes public trust in the state, and complicates efforts to address other security threats. Corruption is analyzed as a key factor facilitating the growth of organized crime, terrorism, illegal migration, and environmental degradation. For instance, migrant networks often rely on corruption of border and police officials, while criminal groups use the same routes to smuggle weapons and drugs. In the energy sector, corruption enables the signing of non-transparent contracts that lead to dependence on foreign resources and diminish state sovereignty. In infrastructure projects, corruption inflates construction costs and reduces the quality of built structures, directly endangering safety and lives. Croatia and Romania stand out as successful examples in the fight against political corruption. In Croatia, institutions such as the Office for the Suppression of Corruption and Organized Crime (USKOK) and independent media played key roles in uncovering major scandals, such as the “Fimi Media” and “INA-MOL” cases. In Romania, the National Anti-Corruption Directorate (DNA) managed to prosecute a significant number of high-ranking officials, including prime ministers, ministers, and mayors, demonstrating its effectiveness in combating corruption. However, criticisms regarding the political misuse of anti-corruption mechanisms highlight the urgent need for fair and transparent processes. The article concludes that combating corruption requires a comprehensive approach that includes strengthening the judicial system, ensuring transparency in public finances, supporting independent media and civil society, and fostering regional and international cooperation. The research demonstrates that corruption is not merely an economic or moral challenge but also a generator of political and social crises that threaten national and regional security. Successful anti-corruption efforts would directly enhance the region’s stability and prosperity, enabling Balkan states to fully realize their potential and integrate into the broader European framework.
ИЗМЕЂУ ИЗАЗОВА И ПРЕТЊЕ – САВРЕМЕНЕ МИГРАЦИЈЕ И ЗАБЛУДЕ КОЈЕ ИХ ПРАТЕ

ИЗМЕЂУ ИЗАЗОВА И ПРЕТЊЕ – САВРЕМЕНЕ МИГРАЦИЈЕ И ЗАБЛУДЕ КОЈЕ ИХ ПРАТЕ
(BETWEEN CHALLENGE AND THREAT – CONTEMPORARY MIGRATIONS AND THE FALLACIES SURROUNDING THEM)

  • Author(s):Milovan R. Subotić
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Security and defense, Migration Studies, Asylum, Refugees, Migration as Policy-fields
  • Page Range:273-293
  • No. of Pages:21
  • Keywords:migration; challenge; Europe; security; misconceptions; threat
  • Summary/Abstract:Engagement in the public (media) sphere has long been regarded as a crucial mechanism for articulating, promoting, and establishing public opinion on the most significant issues - or those designated as such by news transmitters or commissioners. The topic of migration has long transcended the realm of population and demographic studies, assuming dimensions of economic, cultural, and security concerns. In this context, a differentiation in perspectives on this phenomenon has emerged, predominantly marked by a supremacy of negativity and catastrophism, with the potential to interweave these elements into what may be termed a “perfect storm”. There are several principal narratives through which contemporary migration - an inherent challenge - is framed as a risk and a threat, with their hypotheses often presented as “verified” and “definitive” truths. Some of these, which will be the subject of this study, include: “Migration will lead to the Islamization of Europe”; “An increase in migration will lead to a rise in terrorism”; “Migration will negatively impact European economies”; “Migration will equally contribute to the rise of the right-wing in both the Western Balkans and the European Union.” Recognizing the growing trend whereby hyperbolically framed (semi) truths - and, at times, deliberately or inadvertently disseminated falsehoods - resonate even within academic and scientific discourse, this study critically examines each of the aforementioned hypotheses. This paper aims not to categorically refute these constructed “truths” but to provide a balanced academic perspective highlighting specific aspects that call such formulations into question. Further research into these dynamics could shed light on how migration, as a complex social phenomenon, is deeply intertwined with power relations and historical struggles rooted in colonialism, gender, class, and race - factors that often remain implicit yet are deeply embedded in migration discourses and policies. These fundamental issues intersect with the myths under discussion and have profound implications that cannot be fully understood through a strictly positivist lens. Overlooking them risks erasing local and individual narratives that reflect broader systemic trends.
БЕЗБЕДНОСНИ ИЗАЗОВИ КРИТИЧНЕ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЕ ЗЕМАЉА ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА

БЕЗБЕДНОСНИ ИЗАЗОВИ КРИТИЧНЕ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЕ ЗЕМАЉА ЗАПАДНОГ БАЛКАНА
(SECURITY CHALLENGES OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES)

  • Author(s):Dragan Bojanic
  • Language:Serbian
  • Subject(s):Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy
  • Page Range:295-319
  • No. of Pages:25
  • Keywords:resources; national security; resilience; critical infrastructure
  • Summary/Abstract:The security of critical infrastructure is a cornerstone of modern national security, as it forms the foundation for community resilience and survival. In this research discuss the challenges and strategies for crisis prevention and improving the resilience of CI in the Western Balkans. In the past two decades, the focus of CI protection has evolved from addressing international terrorism to tackling natural disasters, cyber threats, risks stemming from the interdependence of CI systems, systemic challenges like climate change and migration, and the recognition that not all risks can be predicted. The need for secure and resilient CI arises not only in response to direct threats, whether climate change or political and economic conditions, but also due to the networking and interdependence among CIs at the national and regional levels of the WB countries. These complexities and interconnections contribute to increasing uncertainty, prompting a shift in protection strategies from a focus on individual threats to an all-hazards approach, and ultimately towards a resilience-oriented strategy. This evolution aims to better address and manage systemic risks and uncertainties. The identified key gaps and challenges and the contributory factor to understanding the existing context of building resilience to crises and disasters in the five economies of the Western Balkans Region are summarized as the following: 1. Vulnerability to natural disasters, cyberattacks, and geopolitical risks; 2. Reactive rather than proactive approaches dominating existing frameworks; 3. Inconsistent legislation and a lack of coordination across the region; 4. Limited resources, expertise, and awareness regarding CI resilience; and 5. Insufficient integration of cybersecurity measures and ICT solutions. Key findings reveal that climate change and disasters like floods and earthquakes significantly impact CI in the region. Additionally, regional risks stem from political instability, cyberattacks, and weak institutional mechanisms. Good practices include inventorying and assessing CI assets (e.g., North Macedonia’s digital platform), forming partnerships for risk management (e.g., Montenegro’s multi-sector disaster risk assessment), and initiatives to strengthen cybersecurity, such as establishing a regional cybersecurity center. National approaches in transitional countries have begun incorporating risk management strategies, viewing global issues such as climate change, infrastructure interdependencies, foreign ownership of CI, and geopolitical dynamics as strategic risks that resilience strategies aim to address. However, the degree to which the resilience concept is reflected in official documents—laws, regulations, strategies, and reports—varies significantly. Existing regulatory frameworks and institutional strategies often fail to clearly define CI resilience. Recommendations for strengthening CI resilience: – Standardize CI definitions and categorizations across Western Balkan countries to ensure consistency and effectiveness in protection efforts. – Promote regional collaboration and information-sharing mechanisms to enhance coordinated responses to cross-border threats like cyberattacks and natural disasters. – Integrate climate change considerations into CI resilience strategies, especially for natural disaster preparedness. – Foster public-private partnerships in the Western Balkans to optimize resource utilization, expertise, and technological innovation in CI protection. – Prioritize investments in training and capacity-building programs for key stakeholders, including law enforcement, emergency services, and cybersecurity specialists, to enhance overall preparedness and response. – Align CI protection policies and practices in the Western Balkans with EU standards and best practices. Implementing these measures is crucial for developing resilient CI systems that safeguard the social and economic well-being of the region. A nation’s functionality and progress depend on having robust infrastructure and ensuring its effective protection.
Back to list
2026 © CEEOL. ALL Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions of use | Accessibility
ver2.0.1033
Toggle Accessibility Mode