СПОЉНОПОЛИТИЧКИ НАСТУП ТУРСКЕ НА БАЛКАНУ – ИЗАЗОВ ОСТВАРИВАЊУ ИНТЕРЕСА РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE BALKANS - A CHALLENGE TO THE INTERESTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIА

Author(s): Milinko S. Vračar
Subject(s): Security and defense, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: Serbia; Turkey; foreign policy; interests; challenge
Summary/Abstract: Small countries do not have the luxury of acting spontaneously in international politics, as such behavior typically leads to significant consequences that they cannot easily bear, unlike larger powers. Given this reality, Serbia, as a small country, adopts a cautious approach when formulating and implementing its foreign policy. Serbia’s approach is pragmatic, free from the negative influence of ideological factors, and involves cooperation in areas of mutual interest, even with states that pose a threat to its vital interests. Turkey is one of those countries. Since the 1990s, relations between Serbia and Turkey have been strained by Turkey’s role in the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, its involvement in NATO’s military intervention against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and its ongoing diplomatic and military support for the so-called Republic of Kosovo in its pursuit of independence. However, relations between Belgrade and Ankara began to improve after Erdoğan came to power. Since then, both countries have made efforts to avoid introducing antagonistic elements into their relationship, such as historical legacies or ongoing political disputes, particularly regarding the issue of Kosovo’s so-called independence. These factors are indeed present and significantly strain relations between the two countries, hindering their expansion and deepening. However, Serbia and Turkey behave rationally, guided by the logic of realpolitik. They strive to focus on areas of mutual interest, even if those interests are minimal. They help ease tensions between the two countries and enable the realization of mutual political and economic benefits. In this regard, Serbia perceives an opportunity in the pragmatic aspects of Turkish policy in the Balkans. It is aimed at achieving Turkey’s geo-economic and geo-strategic (security) interests, with a primary focus on the physical factors related to the geographical position of the Balkan region. Serbia holds importance for Turkey as it is a central state in the Balkan region, which plays a critical role in Turkey’s economic interests. Specifically, Serbia serves as Turkey’s crucial link to Europe, and more precisely, to the European Union, which is Turkey’s most important economic partner. Consequently, any destabilization within the Balkan region could adversely affect Turkey’s economic interests. Furthermore, it could also impact Turkey’s security concerns by potentially leading to the formation of military alliances among Balkan states with Orthodox populations. Therefore, Turkey’s principal objectives in the Balkans are peace and stability, and its policy in the region is primarily focused on these aims. Turkey’s approach in this area provides Serbia with a valuable opportunity to advance its own political, security, and, most importantly, economic interests. Economic cooperation between the two countries has experienced steady growth since 2010. As a result, recent years have often seen their relations characterized by the public as friendly and close. However, in reality, these relations are primarily pragmatic. These relations are shaped by the current constellation of regional and global forces, and it is clear that under different circumstances, Turkey might be prepared to use hard power to advance its interests in the region. The future development of relations between the two countries will largely depend on Turkey’s geopolitical positioning in a world undergoing significant geopolitical transformations. Current events suggest that Turkey is increasingly aligning with the bloc of states led by Russia and China. This shift could present a favorable opportunity for Serbia, potentially allowing for a revision of Turkish policy regarding the Kosovo issue. However, Turkey is also experiencing deep political divisions due to economic and social challenges. Rising discontent among its citizens is reviving Kemalist and pro-Western ideas. Should these factions come to power, Turkey might abandon its neo-Ottoman foreign policy in favor of a more Atlanticist orientation. This would certainly affect the long-term retention of the existing level of security threat to Serbia or even increase its intensity.

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