ЕНЕРГЕТСКА БЕЗБЕДНОСТ РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ У ИЗМЕЊЕНОМ ГЛОБАЛНОМ ОКРУЖЕЊУ
ENERGY SECURITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA IN CHANGED GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Igor Barišić
Subject(s): Energy and Environmental Studies, Environmental and Energy policy, Security and defense, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: geopolitics; energy; security; environment; risks
Summary/Abstract: The war in Ukraine has caused tectonic shifts in the international system, altering global energy flows and accelerating the development of new technologies in the energy sector. In the chaotic, multipolar world that is emerging, energy has become a significant instrument for power projection and global competition. In such conditions, the geopolitical risks arising from polarization and strategic competition between great powers have greatly changed the perceptions of energy security, especially of small and energy-dependent states. Starting from the aforementioned hypothesis, the paper analyzes the main geopolitical risks to the energy security of the Republic of Serbia, taking into account the specificities of our country in terms of the energy balance, current and future energy needs, as well as the development of energy infrastructure in Serbia and the region. The energy security of the Republic of Serbia is largely determined by the process of energy “derussification” of Europe, the acceleration of the energy transition process of the European Union, and the intensification of strategic competition between the West and China in the field of development of the renewable energy industry. Resolving the status of Gazprom on the Serbian market will be the primary geopolitical challenge for the Republic of Serbia in the field of energy security in the coming period. The introduction of sanctions against NIS by the US and its allies in early 2025 places the Republic of Serbia in a very difficult international position, given the limited options for supplying oil and its derivatives from non-Russian producers and refiners. The energy security of the Republic of Serbia may also be complicated in the field of gas supply, given the very likely interruption of gas transit through Ukraine and the introduction of Western sanctions on the Russian bank Gazprombank, through which payments for Russian gas coming via the Balkan Stream pipeline are made. Also, the intensification of the West - Russian Federation conflict and US/EU - China strategic competition will have significant consequences in the field of Serbia’s development of renewable energy sources and peacfull nuclear potential. The need to quickly gain strategic autonomy in relation to the Chinese competitor in the field of critical raw materials has prompted the European Union to put additional pressure on Serbia regarding the lithium mining project, although there are serious reservations among the Serbian public regarding the application of innovative technology for the “Jadarit” extraction and lithium processing and justified fears that environmental protection standards will be violated. In addition, the intensification of cooperation between the USA and the European Union in the field of renewable energy sources may disrupt bilateral Serbian-Chinese relations in this area. Additionally, Serbia’s decision to establish concrete cooperation with France in the field of peacfull nuclear potential development may affect future relations with the Russian Federation, given its previous interest in cooperation with the Republic of Serbia in the sphere of peaceful use of nuclear energy. It is obvious that Serbia’s foreign policy balancing in relations with the West and the East is no longer sustainable, as it was in the period before the war in Ukraine.

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