СТРАТЕГИЈА СПОЉАШЊЕГ УРАВНОТЕЖАВАЊА: ИЗАЗОВИ И ПРОБЛЕМИ КОНЦЕПТА У САВРЕМЕНОЈ МЕЂУНАРОДНОЈ ПОЛИТИЦИ
STRATEGY OF EXTERNAL BALANCING: CHALLENGES AND ISSUES OF THE CONCEPT IN CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

Author(s): Igor Pejić
Subject(s): International relations/trade, Security and defense, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: External balancing; International Relations; Ukraine; Seriba
Summary/Abstract: External balancing represents one of the fundamental strategies in international relations theory. The concept has long been present in scholarly debates, likely due to its visibility, that is, the manifestation of this phenomenon in international politics. In other words, measuring phenomena such as alliances and partnerships is relatively easy compared to other aspects related to the balance of power concept. However, this does not imply that the strategy is widely favored by many states. Forming alliances, maintaining them, and engaging in warfare within such alliances is a challenging endeavor with numerous variables that states cannot fully control. While discussions about alliance problems typically focus on the issues alliances face as unified collectives, the most common challenges encountered by allies are, in essence, of an internal nature. In this paper, through a theoretical framework supplemented by historical examples, we have sought to present precisely this. Issues such as entanglement, falling into a trap, abandonment, and chain reactions represent some of the challenges that allies face within an alliance. Even when states form alliances, they rarely have complete trust in their partners. Given the anarchic nature of the international system, all states strive to fulfill their primary strategic interests, which sometimes come at the expense of their allies. In certain cases, smaller powers may attempt to draw larger partners into a conflict to achieve their goals. At times, larger partners will “leave smaller states out in the cold” if they determine that entering a conflict with another power is not in their interest. Finally, as Mearsheimer emphasizes, all states are primarily concerned with relative gains rather than absolute gains. Because of this, even within an alliance, states will evaluate how much others are gaining in comparison to themselves and whether this is beneficial in the long term. The dynamic political environment of the 19th century likely serves as one of the best arenas for examining these allied dilemmas, which we have attempted to explore in the present work. The impact of external balancing should not be overlooked in the contemporary reality of international politics. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has largely confirmed that the external assistance from Western powers to Ukraine is a crucial aspect of the conflict. Although NATO has largely sought to limit its direct involvement in this war, material support has undoubtedly helped the Ukrainian armed forces halt Russian military actions and transform the initial blitzkrieg into a war of attrition. Neutral states in such circumstances must also develop a well-defined policy regarding other alliances. Serbia serves as a clear example here. The hedging strategy that Serbia has implemented in recent years provides a solid foundation upon which its foreign policy can be built. Balancing between major interest blocs in international politics is not an easy task, but it allows Serbia to preserve and achieve its strategic goals in a complex environment where the genuine intentions of partners or potential adversaries cannot be confidently assessed.

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