ПАМЕТНЕ САНКЦИЈЕ КАО ИЗАЗОВ: АМЕРИЧКЕ CAATSA САНКЦИЈЕ И РЕПУБЛИКА СРБИЈА
SMART SANCTIONS AS A CHALLENGE: THE U.S. CAATSA SANCTIONS AND THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Author(s): Aleksandar Bogićević M.
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy, Geopolitics
Published by: Institut za strategijska istraživanja
Keywords: CAATSA; smart sanctions; Serbia; neutrality; balancing; United States of America
Summary/Abstract: The second and third decades of the 21st century have been marked by a rise in geopolitical tensions, especially between major global powers, leading to a reconfiguration of the international order. Revisionist powers such as Russia and China are challenging the dominance of the West, while the United States and its allies are striving to maintain the existing global balance. In this growing divide between the East and the West, military cooperation has become an important tool of political influence, and a source of new challenges for countries attempting to maintain neutrality. Over time, the gap between East and West has expanded, affecting countries attempting to stay neutral, particularly those with ties to Russia. The implementation of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in August 2017 placed nations cooperating with Russia in a difficult position, especially those in the defense sector. Countries now face the dilemma of continuing their cooperation with Moscow and risking U.S. sanctions or finding new partners. This situation has become more complex after the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, when neutrality was condemned as morally unacceptable, likened to supporting the aggressor—Russia. This shifting dynamic has had significant implications for countries like Serbia, which seeks to balance its relationships between the West and revisionist powers. Serbia’s military cooperation with Russia had already drawn attention before the Ukraine conflict, especially regarding the import of Russian weaponry. After threats of sanctions in 2019, Serbia turned to China to fill the gap left by Russia. China, as a rising challenger to U.S. hegemony, offered itself as a new partner, potentially altering the balance of Serbia’s foreign policy. However, reliance on China could introduce new challenges, particularly if CAATSA sanctions are extended to target China as well. Such a development would increase the pressure on Serbia, limiting its options and complicating its ability to maintain a neutral stance. CAATSA sanctions have proven to be a significant tool in U.S. foreign policy, using America’s global influence to weaken its adversaries, primarily Russia. These sanctions target countries, companies, and individuals involved in defense and security cooperation with these nations. The threat of sanctions has been effective, as seen with Turkey, which faced real consequences for balancing between East and West. This approach illustrates the growing complexity of international relations, where smaller nations, such as Serbia, find themselves caught in the crossfire of great-power competition. Serbia’s position is particularly challenging, given its aspirations to join the European Union while maintaining strong ties with Kremlin. With the outbreak of active conflict in Ukraine, Serbia’s military cooperation with Russia has become increasingly difficult, opening the door for China to step in as a supplier of military equipment. The long-term political consequences of such a decision are significant. If tensions between the U.S. and China continue to rise, Serbia could face further difficulties, as its reliance on China may lead to new pressures from the U.S. to abandon its ties with Beijing, just as it did with Moscow. In conclusion, the expansion of CAATSA sanctions and the rise of geopolitical tensions are reshaping the international order. For countries like Serbia, the decision to remain neutral or align with revisionist powers presents numerous challenges. Serbia’s growing reliance on China could offer a counterbalance to Western pressures, but it also carries significant risks. The future of Serbia’s foreign policy depends on how it navigates the increasingly complex and polarized global environment.

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