Relația dintre cheltuielile medii lunare ale gospodăriilor și rata sărăciei relative în România. O analiză econometrică (2007-2024)
The Relationship between Average Monthly Household Expenditures and the Relative Poverty Rate in Romania: An Econometric Analysis (2007-2024)

Summary/Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between average monthly household expenditures and the relative poverty rate in Romania using an annual time series covering the period 2007–2024 (18 observations), based on data obtained from the Tempo Online database of the National Institute of Statistics. Using a simple linear regression model with logarithmically transformed variables, the study investigates the existence, direction, and strength of the relationship between the two variables after assessing the statistical properties of the time series, including normality, stationarity, autocorrelation, and Granger causality, as well as validating the assumptions of the econometric model. The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between the two variables: a 1% increase in average monthly household expenditures is associated, on average, with an approximately 0.09% decrease in the relative poverty rate, while the model explains about 35% of the variation in the dependent variable. The findings support the existing literature, suggesting that improvements in living standards, reflected by higher household expenditures, are associated with a reduction in relative poverty, although the phenomenon remains influenced by numerous structural and cyclical factors.

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