Ocena skuteczności prognozowania rozwoju sieci rozdzielczej na obszarach wpływu portów lotniczych w Polsce
Effectiveness of forecasting the development of the distribution network in the areas of impact of airports in Poland

Summary/Abstract: One of the factors of regional competitiveness is technical infrastructure. Its basic element is the distribution network. The analyses carried out concerned the verification of the infrastructure diversity of counties located in the area of influence of airports in Gdańsk, Szczecin and Warsaw. The aim of the study was to conduct a prognostic and dynamic analysis of the level of development of technical infrastructure of counties located in the zones of influence of Polish airports in Poland. The time scope of the research material covered the period 2012-2022. Forecasts were prepared for the years 2022-2023 and 2025. The aim of the article is to attempt to answer the question whether, based on publicly available data from the Central Statistical Office, we can effectively predict the development of the values of features characterizing the length of the distribution network of the surveyed units. The aim was achieved in two stages. In the first one, forecasts of selected features characterizing infrastructure development were made, and in the second one, the effectiveness of forecasting was assessed. The obtained results were compared. During the study, two research hypotheses were positively verified: districts located in the areas of influence of the studied airports are not characterized by dynamic changes, so the effectiveness of forecasting the development of the distribution network for them is high. Dynamic changes in the diversity of distribution networks (sewage, water and gas) affect the significant variability of positions occupied in the rankings, depending on the analyzed variables characterizing these networks. Moreover, counties located in the areas of influence of overlapping isochrones occupy similar places in the rankings prepared for each of the features. The obtained results allowed us to assess the quality and effectiveness of the forecasts.

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