Specyfika wschodniej granicy Unii Europejskiej z perspektywy bezpieczeństwa i rozwoju

Author(s): Magdalena Lesińska,Tomasz Stępniewski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The shape of the EU’s external policy depends upon the state of the EU itself as well. The Union struggles with several overlapping crises of various nature: 1) financial, 2) Brexit, 3) immigration, 4) Russia-Ukraine hybrid war and challenges for European security, 5) crisis of European identity. Changes emerging in the immediate and more distant surroundings of the EU exert a direct impact upon the sense and perception of EU’s security. Therefore, the security cannot be simplified to that of the individual member states, but must be considered in broader terms i.e. related to the neighboring regions – the post-Soviet states in this particular case. In view of events and developments of 2016, it can be argued that both southern and eastern neighborhood of the EU are challenged with crises, instability and internal conflicts (political, social and military in nature).

Migracje z Ukrainy do Unii Europejskiej z perspektywy ryzyka

Author(s): Marta Jaroszewicz / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The aim of this paper is to analyse, through the prism of risk theories, migration from Ukraine to the European Union in a multidimensional perspective. Risks taken by different actors associated with migration along this route have been considered. At the micro-level these are risks borne by Ukrainian migrants themselves. At the macro-level these are risks borne by both states of destination and origin. The concept of risk is the most suitable theoretical approach to be applied in the case of analyzing Eastern European migration. Migration to the fortress “Europe” creates many risks for the migrants and is treated as a challenge by the state actors. At the same time, it cannot be regard as a as a security threat. It is very modest both in the numbers and possible adverse consequences for all stakeholders involved. The article pays special attention to the issue of possible risks related to the eruption of armed conflict in Eastern Europe. It argues that those risks have grown but not significantly and the most affected actor is the Ukrainian state itself, who in a long-term perspective may experience dramatic demographic challenges. Both migrants as well the EU destination states may be at higher risk only in a case of serious destabilization at the whole Ukrainian territory.

„Kryzys ukraiński ” – czy konieczność redefinicji polskiej polityki imigracyjnej?

Author(s): Maciej Duszczyk / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Difficult political and economic situation of Ukraine is quoted as the reason underlying growing inflow of the nationals of that state to Poland. The most frequently used instrument to obtain the right of stay and employment in Poland by Ukrainians is comprised by the declaration of an employer on the intention to entrust employment to a foreigner. Growth in the number of registered declarations causes a reaction of the government aimed to restrict the scale of the inflow. At the same time in the debate before parliamentary elections in 2015 the topic was addressed very rarely. In the case of migration issues, the debate was pursued around the problem of potential arrival to Poland of refugees from African states, who reached the European Union. The paper contains a statistical analysis of the scale of inflow of Ukrainians to Poland and conclusions from a review of the election agendas that emerged before the 2015 parliamentary elections in terms of account taken of migration topics. The paper also shows evolution of Polish immigration policy in the first years of 2010s. On this basis, three scenarios were presented for changes in Polish immigration policy as a result of the so-called “Ukrainian crisis”.

Relative impact of administrative measures on labour migration flows from Central Asia

Author(s): Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2016

Comparative studies show an ambiguous effect of the application of administrative controls on the level of migrant inflows, with the relative impact of the measures weaker than that of long-term economic or cultural factors. The case of Central Asian migration to Kazakhstan and Russia demonstrates the interplay of administrative measures and economic shocks with strategies of migrant groups and individuals. The review of recent surveys, interviews and focus groups with migrants from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan suggests that changes in the policies of destination countries have a limited impact on their own plans. The long-term determinants, such as the support provided by diasporas and the fundamental economic pull and push factors mitigate the effects of sanctions or facilitating measures.

Polityczna rola diaspory na przykładzie krajów Europy Środkowo -Wschodniej

Author(s): Magdalena Lesińska / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Most of the Central and Eastern European and post-soviet countries have a longlasting tradition of emigration and possess large diasporas, often dispersed all over the world. Due to their volume and socio-economic position diasporas become on the one hand independent entities in international relations, on the other – influential actors on the political scene in the country of origin and targets of state’s policy. This article aims to analyze the political impact of diasporas on the relations with country of origin as well as on international politics. The case studies are countries of Central and Eastern Europe and post-soviet region. The article consists of four parts. The first is devoted to the conceptual considerations around the definition of diaspora and its role as subject and object of politics. The next two parts analyse the place of diasporas as actors in international relations and in the internal politics of the countries of origin. In the last section the diaspora politics are discussed, illustrated by selected examples of countries of the region.

Mały ruch graniczny – konsekwencje dla regionów przygranicznych

Author(s): Agnieszka Piekutowska / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

It is in the interest of the European Union and Poland to ensure that the borders with its neighbors are not a barrier to trade, social and cultural interchange or regional cooperation. Such indication was included in the preamble of the Regulation No. 1931/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down rules on local border traffic at the external land borders of the Member States. The institution of local border traffic is very popular among the citizens of border areas. Thus – in the light of scale of the phenomenon – numerous questions arise: whether (in the economic dimension) the balance of the consequences of the implementation of the agreements on LBT is positive? Does an asymmetry of benefits take place, ie. the implementation of the agreement is more beneficial for one of its sides? Given the above views, the purpose of this article is the assessment of the economic consequences of its implementation (on the background of the prerequisite for the establishment of the LBT).

Zagrożenie przestępczością na wschodniej granicy Polski – struktura i dynamika zjawiska

Author(s): Magdalena Perkowska / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Polish eastern border is both the internal and external EU and Schengen border. Polish eastern border is so called border between East and West of Europe. It has a significant role in Europe security. Therefore the aim of article is to show the threats to border’s security and also state security. Author will present the structure and dynamics of border criminality on Polish eastern border in 2004-2013. The hypothesis is that the border criminality is strongly influenced by migration, and in case of Poland it is high on the eastern section of the state border (external EU border). The analysis of structure and dynamics of border criminality on Polish eastern border in 2004-2013 will be conducted mostly in reference to the political factors that influenced the border status. There were EU enlargement (in 2004), Schengen enlargement (in 2007) and introduction of Local Border Traffic with Ukraine (in 2009) and with Russian Federation (in 2012). Those factors include some elements of EU policy towards ex USSR countries and influenced the scale of border criminality and other threats to border security on the East of Europe. The data presented will show the scale and specific of criminality on different border sections (with Russia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine).

Gdzie opada żelazna kurtyna? Granice i mit Europy Środkowej we współczesnej eseistyce i historiografii europejski

Author(s): Agata Stolarz / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The present paper discusses the key writer’s views of the Central Europe, referring to the problem of the symbolic divisions of Europe in opinion journalism and essays. It presents three main ways (cultural, political and social) of constructing the borders of Central Europe, and thus of Europe’s eastern border. The author focuses primarily on those publications in which the authors propose a redefinition of borders in Central Europe. She refers, amongst others, to the texts of Milan Kundera, Chantal Delsol, Alain Finkielkraut, Simona Škrabec, Vittorio Strada, Andrzej Stasiuk, and Yuri Andrukhovych. She also describe and deconstructs the myth of “unique geographical location which shaping the identity of Central Europe”, emerging from the texts of the writers mentioned above.

Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne w dokumentach strategicznych Unii Europejskiej i Federacji Rosyjskiej – problemy definicyjne oraz próba ich przezwyciężenia

Author(s): Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Analyzing EU-Russia relations one may find significant difference regarding the energy security definition. From the Russian perspective this concept is defined mainly through the technical prism focusing on stable and secure supply. In turn, many European researchers add economic and environmental dimensions of this concept underlying the role of competitive market and interrelations with climate issue. In this paper author tries to reduce a difference between these two positions. He aims at elaborating broad definition of the energy security which should help for better analysis EU-Russia energy relations. He states that existing definition based on three abovementioned elements like security of supply, free market, and sustainable development, is incomplete and should therefore be extended by the fourth component, so called social and political agreement.

Debata nad nową strategią bezpieczeństwa zewnętrznego na forum instytucji i organów Unii Europejskiej w latach 2012-2015

Author(s): Janusz Józef Węc / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The subject of the article is the debate on the new external security strategy, which has been ongoing in the European Union since 2012. It presents the position of the European Council and the Council for Foreign Affairs, the European Commission, the European Parliament as well as the Interparliamentary Conference for a Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy. In so far as these first two institutions play a decisive role in shaping a common security and defence policy, the influence of the next two is still limited, in spite of the fact that it has increased since the coming into force of the Lisbon Treaty of 13 December 2007. In turn, the Interparliamentary Conference, whose members include representatives of the European Parliament and national parliaments, functions only as an advisory body in this area.

„Sąsiedzi Europy i europejscy sąsiedzi”? Polityka rozszerzenia UE i Europejska Polityka Sąsiedztwa w debatach Sejmu 2004-2014

Author(s): Magdalena Góra / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Main aim of this article is an analysis of discursive legitimising practices of selected EU policies. The study focuses on the Sejm’s debates in which the issue of EU Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy with special focus on Eastern Partnership (since 2008) were discussed between 2004 and 2014. The analysis answers the question which aspects of these policies are the most controversial today and why. How political actors perceive the future of the policies? Typical arguments used in debates concentrate on security, economic costs and benefits and the impact on the European integration. However in presented study special attention is paid to cultural, religious and identitarian arguments used by political actors.

Model władzy w państwach postsowieckich

Author(s): Elżbieta Kużelewska,Adam R. Bartnicki / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The aim of this article is to show the evolution of the model of power in the former Soviet states on the example of Belarus, Azerbaijan and Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). The research task of this article is to answer the following questions: Why in the post- Soviet states the most attractive and the most effective is the quasi-authoritarian system? Which factors influenced on deep-rooted authoritarianism in analyzed counties? Why the post-Soviet republics society accepts such a model? And finally, are any chances of the regime’s transition towards the classical democratic system? The role of the referendum in increasing the power of the president will be explored, too.

Colour Revolutions , Frozen Conflicts and the New Silk Road: the Political Struggle in the Post-Soviet Space

Author(s): Krzysztof Kozłowski / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2016

As the political centre of the World international stage gravitates toward East Asia, so does the political reality of the Post-Soviet Space. This process works in favour of the Peoples’ Republic of China, is a source of new tensions within the Russian Federation and undermines the effectiveness of US and European policies. The New Silk Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiatives show that PRC has both the means and the determination to actively broaden its sphere of influence. However, the Chinese patterns of expansion do not have to follow the nature of Russian-Western competition the World got used to after 1991. As the local players are increasingly assertive and PRC economy is slowing down, it’s also important to notice the first clouds gathering over Chinese aspirations in the region. The article presents an overview of the major approaches to political change, international competition and integration trajectories within the Post-Soviet space. It focuses on the major actors active within the Post-Soviet Space, namely the Russian Federation, the United States and the Peoples’ Republic of China, the strategies they follow, mediums they choose to execute their strategies and an evaluation of effects of their activity after the collapse of the USSR.

Assessing Russia’s doctrine of Realpolitik as strategic re-contouring of regional power-balance in the post -Soviet periphery

Author(s): Monika Eriksen / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2016

The Ukraine conflict escalated in early 2014 and resulted in Russia’s annexation of Crimea. This illustrates a troublesome pattern in the region. The author claims that this most recent political crisis is in fact emblematic of Russian’s narrative for some time, as exemplified by the Russia-Georgian War, or Putin’s support of Moldavian separatists. The article attempts to conceptualize Russian “mingling” in the region in light of several relevant events such as the recent creation of the Eurasian Economic Union as well as the annexation of Crimea as a deliberate strategy that reflects a much larger pattern of potential destabilization and expansionism, which begun more than a decade ago. The argument will be analyzed through the prism of two theoretical perspectives, the redefined domino theory and Kohr’s power theory of social misery. Moreover, the article will place a particular emphasis on the increasing influence of the concept of Eurasianism on Russian geopolitics in recent years. The increasing regional vulnerabilities in light of Russia’s antagonistic policy of Realpolitik, stresses the need for a protracted dialogue about other potential security threats that could further destabilize the region. The article discusses recent events in Ukraine as an emblematic example of Russian geopolitical strategy as a potential warning for other sovereign States in the post-Soviet “near-abroad”.

Polityka etniczna Republiki Łotewski

Author(s): Andrzej Szabaciuk / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

This article aims to analyze the factors and significance of particular subjects and instruments of the Latvian ethnic policy. It will be examined in the context of relationships occurring between Latvia’s policy on ethnic minorities, the attitude of the Russian-speaking minority and the Russian Federation’s foreign policy on its fellow-countrymen abroad. We will also attempt to answer the question of how the Latvian ethnic policy influences horizontal interrelations between the state’s individual ethnic groups – whether it alleviates social tensions or intensifies them.

Zjawisko dysfunkcji państwa na przykładzie Ukrainy – analiza problemowa

Author(s): Tomasz Olejarz,Tomasz Stępniewski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

The analysis of Ukraine’s dysfunction and dependence, both in national and international dimension, presents a clear picture that the dilemma of whether we are faced with a consolidation of a truly liberal democracy or its non-liberal (hybrid) variety, is still valid. Debates in political sciences are dominated by the view that independent Ukraine ought to be considered a specific case of the so-called “hybrid state”. Such countries are characterized by stagnation, corruption, and a dominant position of elites, who offer few benefits to the state and have little public support. In addition, the following are clearly visible in Ukraine: little representation of public interests by state institutions; little political involvement of the society and little social activity in between elections; no respect for regulations of the state under the rule of the law; little public legitimization in elections; little public trust in state institutions/the institution of the state; inadequate operation of the state in general. Therefore, the fact that transformation processes which have been emerging in Ukraine, ought not be considered linear, should be acknowledged. Consequently, describing the character of these processes in view of their complexity and multidimensionality seems more relevant.

Szczyt NATO w Warszawie w lipcu 2016 roku. Implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

Author(s): Tomasz Stępniewski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 41/2016

Wpływ wzrostu stóp procentowych na ryzyko kredytowe jednostek samorządu terytorialnego

Author(s): Krzysztof Kluza / Language(s): Polish Issue: 432/2016

Debt of Local Goveremnts (LGs) in Poland steadily grew from PLN 28.2 bln in 2008 to PLN 72.1 bln in 2014. At the same time since 2012, the cost of servicing the debt of LGs, has declined due to lower market interest rates and stabilization of banking margins for LGs below 1.0% level. The high amount of debt makes the LG sector sensitive to the risk of interest rates increses. Monte Carlo simulations show that LGs will not be adversly affected by the increase in interest rates, if that occurs as an isolated factor, which does not entail significant changes in their revenues and non-interest expenses. In such a scenario, the increases of interest rates by 100bps may cause a growth of share of LGs with a negative risk profile from 1.8% in 2014 to 2.5%. Significant risks for the sector occur when the interest rate increases are accompanied by the deterioration of LGs’ non-interest operating surplus. Then, the increase of 100bps results in alarming levels of debt ratios for 10% of LGs and another 30% of LGs shifts to risk area of losing the ability to service their debt.

Ekonomiczno-społeczne efekty projektów translokacji obiektów zabytkowych na poziomie lokalnym

Author(s): Tomasz Kołakowski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 432/2016

The aim of the paper is to identify economic and social effects in the unusual projects, which are projects of translocation of historic monuments. Translocation, or otherwise removing, transfer, is the transfer of a historic building in another location. It is performed only in exceptional cases, ie. if this is the only way to save the cultural heritage object from destruction.

Struktura pomocy publicznej dla przedsiębiorców w Jeleniej Górze

Author(s): Marian Maciejuk / Language(s): Polish Issue: 432/2016

The study discusses public aid granted to the sector of small and medium enterprises from the perspective of Polish municipalities as the entities granting such an aid. The legal basis for public aid as well as its forms used by Polish municipalities with reference to economic entities were presented. The case study of public aid was conducted in Jelenia Góra, in the period 2010-2013, addressed to entrepreneurs in terms of this aid form, volume and its allocation depending on the number and size of economic entities. An attempt was also made to evaluate the impact of public aid in Jelenia Góra on the development of entrepreneurship.