We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

Context Analysis of the Security Sector Reform in Macedonia 1991 – 2008

Author(s): Cvete Koneska,Biljana Kotevska / Language(s): English

This paper looks at the general political and security sector context in the last two decades since Macedonian independence, and traces the major trends and events that shaped the political developments and progress with security sector reforms in post-communist Macedonia. For the purpose of this paper, the analysis of the post-communist transition period is divided in three parts, corresponding to the three periods on which we divided the context since 1991, for the sake of greater clarity and analytical coherence. For each of these three periods, we conducted an analysis of major political developments as well as institutional change. Based on this analysis, each period is qualified as characterised by a specific nature, whether post-authoritarian, conflict, postconflict, or integrationist. In the Annex attached to this paper, a short overview of the key political actors and their role in the security sector reforms and the political transition in Macedonia is offered. The first period analyzed is the period from the declaration of independence from Yugoslavia, in 1991 until the ethnic conflict in 2001. These years mark the first decade of independent statehood and democratic politics in Macedonia. The second period stretches from the ethnic conflict in 2001 until the NATO Summit in Bucharest in early 2008. The 2001 conflict had a profound impact on the political and security context in Macedonia. It produced inter-ethnic violence and culminated in a far-reaching reform of the constitutional and institutional set-up of Macedonian democracy.

More...

0.00 €

An International Handbook of Good Practices for Building Resilience against Violent Religious Radicalisation

Author(s): Rositsa Dzhekova,Lilia Yakova / Language(s): English

This handbook was created within the framework of the GREASE consortium which focuses on examining the relationship between radicalisation, secularism and the governance of religion. The main objective of the handbook is to outline good practices on resilience-building against violent religious radicalisation. It accomplishes this goal by combining practices from twelve in-depth case studies on violent religious radicalisation in countries in “the West” (Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, the UK), the MENA region (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia), South and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia) and countries with history of ethno-nationalist separatist struggles (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia). Based on shared practices, themes and commonalities across this range of country cases, the handbook outlines a common set of good practices. It illustrates these good practices though real examples from the country studies while it recognises that there is “no panacea to violent religiously-inspired radicalisation.” Although the handbook does not make claims that the good practices it identifies are the solution to violent religious radicalisation, such practices can provide valuable practical guidance and orientation to relevant stakeholders in designing resilience efforts. CSD contributed to the content of the handbook through results from the case study it conducted on good practices in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

More...

0.00 €

Ukrainian oligarchs in wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s military invasion has contributed to a major decline in the role of oligarchs in Ukraine. This is largely due to the fact that domestic political rivalry both in the media and in parliament has ceased, which in turn has reduced the role played by those spheres of life in which their influence was most perceptible. Ukraine’s main political forces have backed President Volodymyr Zelensky in defending the country, as a result of which laws are presently passed almost unanimously. In addition, the most important oligarch-owned TV stations, which before the war formed their main tool of influence, have decided to air a joint news programme. Alongside this, the owners’ control of broadcasting content has been further weakened through specific legal regulations. Some oligarchs have lost portions of their assets as a result of military activity and occupation, and some have suffered significant financial losses due to the economic crisis and export restrictions in a situation when they still need to service their foreign debt. Most of the oligarchs have offered funds to help the country in its fight against the aggressor, but some of these activities are being kept low-profile. If the war’s outcome is positive for Ukraine, and if Kyiv receives substantial Western support for its recovery and investment effort, the position of the oligarchs will diminish, and the president, who enjoys an enormously high level of trust from society, will in practical terms be free to continue to reduce the oligarchs’ influence on Ukraine’s political life.

More...

0.00 €

Dangerous liaisons. A quick and coordinate withdrawal from Russian gas is proving hard for the EU

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The REPowerEU proposals announced on 18 May confirm the EU’s desire to end its dependence on Russian energy. Nonetheless, it illustrates the problems associated with the process of withdrawing from Russian gas, and above all with the rapid reduction of importing it. The heavy dependence which some EU countries have on Russian gas, the persistence of very high prices and the prospect of crisis and potential shortages in the coming winter make it difficult for the EU to agree internally on a significant, coordinated reduction in supplies this year. As a result, on the one hand, intra-EU discussions about sanctions on Russian gas are very difficult and increasingly rare, while on the other hand, some restraint in the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU ambitions regarding the level and pace of reductions in Russian imports is becoming apparent. This weakness of the EU is being exploited by Moscow. Russian counter-sanctions, including the ‘roubles-for-gas’ demand, not only lead to divisions within the EU but also reverse the previous logic of the discussion. The majority of states and companies active on the EU market, instead of thinking about ways to limit imports of Russian gas as quickly as possible, began thinking about ways to guarantee their supplies under new conditions. Therefore, the role of the European Commission in working out common principles for EU gas relations with Russia is diminishing, in favour of the individual actions of member states, which weakens the consistency of EU action. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be taking control of the process of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the European market. While still maintaining a significant level of exports, Moscow is also maintaining an energy weapon that it could use against the EU in the context of the approaching winter.

More...

0.00 €

A war not won, a war not lost. The military situation after 100 days of the Russian aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

One hundred days of Russian aggression against Ukraine has still not answered the basic question: who will win? The first phase of the clash – a manoeuvre warfare until the end of March, in which the aggressor had broadly defined operational goals – ended in failure for Russia, and resulted in it withdrawing from one of the two main theatres of operations and reducing its aspirations in other directions. The trench warfare phase, which has lasted since the turn of April, has not led to a breakthrough, but the extended actions have exhausted the Ukrainian army to an extent that the enemy has been able to make slow but consistent progress in achieving its assumed minimum goal: taking control of the entire Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. Moscow has largely achieved this aim; since 24 February it has taken control of80,000 km² of Ukraine’s territory. It is not enough simply to maintain the status quo regarding external support for Ukraine, without which it will no longer be able to fight off the aggressor. The comprehensive rearming of the Ukrainian army with Western weapons and military equipment offers a chance to stop the Russian aggression. Moreover, in order to defeat Russia militarily, the West must display an attitude of consistent solidarity.

More...

0.00 €

Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

More...

0.00 €

The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

More...

0.00 €

War dictatorship: power and society in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

With the start of the war against Ukraine, the Putin regime is taking on more and more features of a totalitarian system. The authorities are aiming for a total information blockade and a ‘rally around the flag’, including through the use of a massive propaganda campaign that is demonising Ukraine and the West. The degree of repression against the disloyal elements of society is growing. The few anti-war protests occurring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been nipped in the bud. One of the direct consequences of the invasion is the increase in emigration from Russia for political reasons. Although there is a lack of reliable sociological data on the real mood in Russian society, one can see a relatively high level of support for the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine or else passive acceptance of the Kremlin’s policy. Although society is beginning to suffer from the effects of Western sanctions (they include rapidly rising prices of basic products and a shortage of goods), there is no reason to expect any mass protests on economic grounds in the near future. The situation within the ruling elite also appears stable, despite the deep frustration among many groups of influence caused by the sanctions. Western restrictive measures have significantly raised the cost of participation in the Putin regime. Anti-war calls from the representatives of the establishment are few and far between, and they usually avoid direct criticism of the Kremlin, which maintains the ability to discipline those who are discontented. The narrow circle of decision makers, which comprises mainly the heads of secret services and law enforcement bodies, seems to fully share the objectives and methods of war set out by the president.

More...

0.00 €

Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

More...

0.00 €

The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

More...

0.00 €

High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

More...

0.00 €

A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine proclaimed independence, and a few months later (together with Russia and Belarus) it brought about the dissolution of the USSR. At the time of its foundation, the Ukrainian state was a continuation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; on the one hand, this delayed the de-Communisation of the organisational and legal system, but on the other, it saved the country from having to build up state institutions from scratch. After nearly a quarter of a century, the hour of its greatest trial arrived – revolution and war with Russia. Ukraine passed this test: it did not unilaterally implement the political part of the Minsk agreements which posed a direct threat to it, nor has it fallen into the group of ‘failed states’. The main threat to its future is not so much the ongoing conflict in the Donbas or the weakness of the economy, but rather demographic collapse: during its nearly thirty years of independence, it has lost a fifth of its population.

More...

0.00 €

№123: Breaking Down Russian and Chinese Disinformation and Propaganda About the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Russia and China use a convergent narrative about the reasons for the war in Ukraine. Both accuse the West, mainly the United States, of provoking Russia, and as a result, the indivisibility of European security has been undermined. Despite the similarities, the Chinese narrative is not entirely the same as Russia’s. China formats its messages about the war in such a way that it attempts to create the perception of it as a still-neutral partner, restraining Russia’s actions. The European Union should pay more attention to Chinese disinformation, which can more effectively reach people and groups not susceptible to Russian narratives.

More...

0.00 €

Reaction of Tech Companies to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, many global technology companies have taken action against Russia. Restricting the functioning of Russia-based accounts by some social media platforms or impeding the export of technology to Russia by other companies (in addition to sanctions imposed by states) represent a new level of involvement of private actors in international conflicts. Increasing pressure from Western states may contribute to further steps weakening Russian disinformation on social media and Russia’s economic potential due to limited access to high technology.

More...

0.00 €

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

More...

0.00 €

Time to exist and resist: the European Union and Russian political war

Author(s): Mark Galeotti / Language(s): English

Russia is waging a political war campaign of active measures intended to divide, distract, and dismay European states, not as a prelude to any direct military aggression but as a substitute. The institutions of the European Union have made very patchy and often reluctant responses to this campaign, in part as a result of a lack of consensus among member states, in part because the necessary measures – which often focus on cohesion, legitimacy, and more effective counter-intelligence activity – are controversial, complex, long-term and expensive. A primary issue, though, is the dramatically different strategic cultures and operational codes of the EU and Russia. Moscow subscribes to an essentially confrontation, zero-sum perspective that at best interprets the EU’s more inclusive approach as naive, at worse as a pose, concealing malign intent. The EU and member states need to appreciate and understand the nature, scale and objectives of Russia’s political war, and specifically the lack of any set doctrine or “playbook.” This will require deeper investment in expertise within the institutions of the Commission, as well as broadening European understandings of “security.” Addressing issues of corruption, institutional legitimacy, social cohesion and governance is a crucial security concern. Countries at most risk from the ‘legitimacy gap’ are more vulnerable to Russian interference and subversion. The EU must appreciate that as an alliance, weaknesses in the counter-intelligence capacities of one state is a vulnerability for all. There needs to be greater effort on this, and a consensus on the minimum level of acceptable spending on this. The immediate challenge is to act more decisively and collectively to reduce the effectiveness of the instruments used by Moscow in its political war, especially those not simply operating on direct instructions but “adhocrats” seeking to please Moscow. This requires more detailed intelligence gathering, analysis and sharing, which could fall within the remit of INTCEN.

More...

0.00 €

The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

More...

0.00 €

Lessons learned after the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement

Author(s): Mirko Pejanović / Language(s): English

Over the past two and a half decades multiple problems have been identified in the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement. The process of development of the BiH society has generated some visible achievements that could lead to a stable development of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, at the same time, some halts in development of the BiH society and state are also notable. These halts have led to the deepening of the crisis in economic development, particularly since 2015. Namely, since 2015, several dozen thousands of young people have left Bosnia and Herzegovina and went to European counties in pursuit of economic prosperity.

More...

0.00 €

2020 Bosnia and Herzegovina- Croatia: Relations in the shadow of recent history

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the seventh local elections since the signing of the Dayton peace agreement were held on 15 November 2020. The elections brought about tectonic changes on the political scene and are a prelude to the announced political changes at the parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place on 2 October 2022. Political changes had also led to success in North Macedonia, with the arrival of Zoran Zaev (SDSM) to power. Zaev took his country to membership in NATO and it is expected that Macedonia will soon open the accession talks with the European Union. The Brussels Dialogue between the official Belgrade and Priština is entering its final phase. In Montenegro, the recent parliamentary elections resulted in the fall of the 31- years long regime headed by Milo Đukanović (DPS), which was an introduction into groundbreaking political changes and stabilization of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

More...

0.00 €

The Future of Turkey after the Last Elections: the Kurdish question and the economic outlook

Author(s): Diego Del Priore / Language(s): English

The last parliamentary elections in Turkey mark a political and an institutional turning point in the country's history. The importance of the vote derives from two main factors. Firstly, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Party of Justice and Development (AKP) has lost its parliamentary majority, although it remains the largest party in the Parliament with 258 seats and 40.9% of the votes. This is the first time that the party has been in this position since 2002, when the AKP swept to power and retained a majority in the Turkish Parliament. However, the AKP failed to achieve its objective of 350 seats, as the party leader and president of the Republic since August 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had hoped.

More...