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Soft Belarusianisation. The ideology of Belarus in the era of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

Author(s): Piotr Rudkouski / Language(s): English

Over the past three years, a distinct change has become visible in the ideological discourse of the government of Belarus. To an increasing degree, the state ideology is focusing on strengthening national identity, emphasising the divergence of Belarus’s interests from those of Russia, and re-examining the historical narration in a direction which emphasises the distinctiveness of the history of Belarus from that of Russia. Above all, the government has changed its attitude towards the Belarusian language and culture. A campaign promoting the Belarusian language is being carried out on a large scale – under the auspices of state ideologues. The government has also become involved in the promotion of vyshyvanki, traditional, embroidered Belarusian clothes and their ornamentation. This allows us to talk about a process of ‘soft Belarusianisation’. Articles criticising Kremlin policy have begun to appear fairly regularly in the government media. Official representatives of the authorities, while not going so far as to promote the idea of friendship with the West, no longer refer to it using the rhetoric of the ‘enemy’, as was previously the case. This modification of ideological discourse probably means that the regime is looking for new ways to arrange its relationships, both with its own society and with the countries of the West. This does not mean, however, that the authorities are ready for systemic changes. The role of the President and the concept of the state remain unaltered in ideological discourse; there is still no tripartite division of power, and civil society’s room for manoeuvre remains narrow.

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In the shadow of war. Ukraine’s policy towards internally displaced persons

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

The conflict in eastern Ukraine that has been going on for more than four years has resulted in one of country’s worst social crises. More than 10 000 people have now been killed, and more than 25 000 injured in the conflict. The destruction caused by war, a weak economy, and the spread of criminal activity in areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists have forced more than 2 million people to leave their place of residence, according to official figures. Approximately 1.5 million of these have moved to other regions in the country. Although there is every indication that the true number is lower, the scale and consequences of the problem mean that Ukraine is facing the greatest humanitarian crisis in its history. Although the authorities in Kyiv have expressed their resolve to solve the humanitarian issues and reintegrate the eastern regions into the rest of the country as soon as possible, the measures the state has taken have been inadequate and ineffective. The legal mechanisms devised to assist displaced persons are often discriminatory and sometimes unlawful. This failure to provide effective aid to displaced persons leaving the occupied areas has revealed not only that the administrative apparatus is ineffectual, but also that Ukrainian politicians are unwilling to take real measures to meet this challenge. In view of the ineffectiveness of state institutions, most of the support given to internally displaced persons is being provided by volunteers and by NGOs using international aid.

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W cieniu wojny. Ukraina wobec osób wewnętrznie przesiedlonych

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): Polish

Toczący się od ponad czterech lat konflikt na wschodzie Ukrainy wywołał jeden z najpoważniejszych kryzysów społecznych w kraju. W jego wyniku zginęło już ponad 10 tys. osób, a ponad 25 tys. zostało rannych. Zniszczenia wojenne, zła sytuacja gospodarcza oraz postępująca kryminalizacja terenów znajdujących się pod kontrolą prorosyjskich separatystów zmusiły – według danych oficjalnych – ponad 2 mln ludzi do opuszczenia swojego miejsca zamieszkania, z czego ok. 1,5 mln przeniosło się do innych regionów kraju. Choć wszystko wskazuje na to, że ich liczba jest mniejsza, to skala problemu i jego konsekwencje powodują, iż Ukraina mierzy się z największym kryzysem humanitarnym w swojej historii. Pomimo deklarowanej determinacji władz w Kijowie do jak najszybszego rozwiązywania problemów humanitarnych oraz reintegracji wschodnich regionów z resztą kraju, działania państwa w tym zakresie są nieefektywne i niewystarczające. Wypracowane rozwiązania prawne mające służyć wsparciu osób przesiedlonych mają nierzadko charakter dyskryminacyjny i w niektórych przypadkach bezprawny. Brak skutecznej pomocy osobom przesiedlonym z terenów okupowanych ujawnia nie tylko niewydolność aparatu administracyjnego, lecz także niechęć ukraińskich polityków do podjęcia rzeczywistych działań mających na celu sprostanie temu wyzwaniu. Wobec nieefektywności instytucji państwowych znaczna część wsparcia dla uchodźców wewnętrznych realizowana jest dzięki działalności wolontariuszy i organizacji pozarządowych korzystających z pomocy międzynarodowej.

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The Protracted Rohingya Crisis in Bangladesh and the Prospects of a Resolution

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The humanitarian crisis of nearly 1 million Rohingya who fled from persecution in Myanmar to Bangladesh is now in its third year, and the prospects for its end are distant. Although most refugees want to return to Myanmar, the chances of repatriation are low due to the reluctance of the authorities there. Prolonging the current situation threatens to worsen the living conditions of refugees, increase the burden on Bangladesh and perhaps pose a challenge to the security of the region. The international community should continue helping Rohingya, increase pressure on Myanmar and look for innovative ways to end the crisis.

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Przedłużający się kryzys humanitarny Rohingów w Bangladeszu i perspektywy jego rozwiązania

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Kryzys humanitarny blisko 1 mln Rohingów, którzy uciekli z Mjanmy do Bangladeszu, trwa już trzeci rok, a perspektywy jego zakończenia są odległe. Chociaż większość uchodźców chce wrócić do Mjanmy, szanse na repatriację są niewielkie z uwagi na niechętną postawę jej władz. Przedłużanie obecnej sytuacji grozi pogorszeniem warunków życia uchodźców, zwiększeniem obciążeń dla Bangladeszu i być może wyzwaniem dla bezpieczeństwa regionu. Społeczność międzynarodowa powinna kontynuować pomoc dla Rohingów, zwiększać presję na Mjanmę i poszukiwać innowacyjnych sposobów zakończenia kryzysu.

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Prześladowania ludności Rohindża – wyzwania dla transformacji Mjanmy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Operacje armii mjanmańskiej w stanie Rakhine spowodowały exodus do sąsiedniego Bangladeszu ponad 400 tys. osób z mniejszości Rohindża. Działania te spotkały się z krytyką międzynarodową i oskarżeniami władz Mjanmy o akceptowanie „czystek etnicznych”. W ocenie wydarzeń należy jednak wziąć pod uwagę uwarunkowania polityczne i trwający proces pokojowy. Realną władzę w Mjanmie nadal sprawuje wojsko, które może wykorzystać obecny kryzys do zatrzymania trwającej od 2011 r. transformacji demokratycznej. Partnerzy zagraniczni powinni domagać się powrotu uchodźców i wspierać ich pełną reintegrację zgodnie z rekomendacjami komisji doradczej ds. Rakhine Kofiego Annana.

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NATO Summit in Vilnius: breakthroughs and unfulfilled hopes

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska,Marek Menkiszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The main topics of the NATO Vilnius Summit held on 11–12 July were deterrence and defense, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO, and deepening relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific. The Alliance is partly returning to the defense planning processes and structures that were in place during the Cold War, but which NATO abandoned in the 1990s. The adoption of three regional defense plans constitutes a structural change in NATO’s approach to collective defense, but will require implementation and funding in the years to come.

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A ‘key state’: India is gaining significance as a political and economic partner for Germany

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to India in February this year was unlike his other foreign trips. This visit was important not only politically but also economically: the German chancellor was accompanied by managers of companies such as Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, Deutsche Post and SAP. This once again proves Germany’s growing interest in building stronger relations with India. In June 2022, Scholz invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a G7 meeting at Schloss Elmau. Only two months earlier, Modi had paid an official visit to Berlin during the sixth bilateral intergovernmental consultations. In February this year, in addition to the chancellor himself, Christian Lindner (FDP) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) visited India. Their visits were part of meetings of the finance and foreign affairs ministers of the G20 group.

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The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The European Union survived last winter in a surprisingly effective way. Despite the ongoing gas crisis and Russia’s energy war with the West, there were neither painful shortages of gas or the need to ration it. This was the result of an exceptionally favourable set of circumstances: a warmer winter than usual in Europe and lower gas demand in China, and on the other hand, the actions taken by individual member states and the EU as a whole, as well as changes on the market.2022 saw a revolutionary reshuffle in the directions and routes of gas supplies to the EU. Pipeline supplies from Russia, which used to be the largest source, fell by 56% year-on-year, while LNG supplies from the global market rose by 67%. Liquefied natural gas has become the most important source, and the EU has become the world’s fastest growing market for LNG, despite its long-term goals of achieving climate neutrality and reducing gas consumption. Unexpectedly, and contrary to the earlier assumptions of the European energy and climate policy, the construction of new gas infrastructure, including floating import terminals, has been stepped up. At the same time the EU’s demand for gas fell by a record 60 bcm (or over 13%) last year.

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Israel and the Arab states: between conflict and interdependence

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

In late 2020 and early 2021, Israel established official diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords), renewed its relations with Morocco, and took steps towards establishing relations with Sudan, in a series of developments that occurred with extensive US involvement. These were Israel’s first normalisation deals since the agreements with Egypt (1979), the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO, 1993) and Jordan (1994). The following factors paved the way for this process: changes in the region related to the aftermath of the Arab Spring (the desire of Arab regimes to consolidate power, also by countering radical Islam that feeds on the struggle against Israel), the growing Iranian threat, US policy, as well as economic and energy transitions.

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A crisis rather than a disaster. The Belarusian economy a year into Russia’s war against Ukraine

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The stability of the Belarusian economy has come under threat from the new Western sanctions, imposed on the country in 2022 for its complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the loss of the Ukrainian market. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, the country will probably face a deep economic recession, involving a decline in its GDP of more than 10%, and a slump in its most profitable exports. However, official statistics for 2022 indicate that Belarus was hit by a moderate crisis during which its GDP shrank by a mere 4.7%, its industrial production by 5.4%and its total foreign trade by just 6%. Belarus has adapted to the new situation, and has been partly able to make up for these losses. The main factor that helped Minsk to ease the severity of the restrictions involved support from Russia. In exchange for Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s loyalty, Russia has made its transport and port infrastructure available for the transit of Belarusian goods and introduced preferential conditions for Belarusian exports onto its market. In addition, the magnitude of the economic crisis is being limited by certain ‘manual steering’ strategies applied by the Belarusian authorities, such as keeping industrial production at a high level (which has led to more and more goods being stored in warehouses), introducing administrative measures to block price increases, and attempting to circumvent the EU’s embargo on road freight from Belarus. However, neither the assistance from Moscow (which is also subject to sanctions) nor the ‘manual control’ of the economy are sufficient to guarantee the country’s economic stability. Moreover, with Poland and Lithuania closing more and more of their border crossing points as of February 2023, an aggravation of the crisis should be expected in the short term.

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Taliban Firmly in Control of Afghanistan Two Years After Takeover

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Two years after taking control of Afghanistan, the Taliban have consolidated power and are improving the country’s security and economic situation. These positive changes are taking place at the expense of women’s rights and the activities of international organisations, which are both severely restricted, and the exclusion of ethnic minorities from participation in governing the state. Despite the intransigence of the Taliban, the lack of a political alternative will encourage the West to increase cooperation with the government to pursue common interests, such as the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, but without formal recognition of the regime.

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‘The silence of the lambs’. Russian big business in wartime

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed it have brought multi-billion losses to Russian big business. The magnitude of blows dealt to its main representatives has resulted in a shift in the business model they have applied thus far. Despite these losses, most Russian billionaires, just like Russian society, have tacitly come to terms with Moscow’s aggressive policy. Even those who reside abroad have not ventured to criticise the Kremlin, and instead have focused on adjusting their businesses to the new economic reality. Silence has been their main defensive strategy, enabling them to avoid being targeted by the Russian authorities.

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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged the security of the countries of NATO's eastern flank on an unprecedented scale. The Baltic states, the Visegrad Group and the Black Sea states are all situated in the neighbourhood of Ukraine or Russia. Due to the invasion, the sense of threat posed by Russia has escalated significantly, although Russia had already been seen as a threat in the region since at least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. All these countries are advocates of strengthening NATO’s collective defence and allied presence on the eastern flank. Most of them are among the top contributors to the political and military support provided to Ukraine. Defence policy and the modernisation of the armed forces have clearly gained priority throughout the region.

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A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion has led to a collapse in Ukraine’s trade, in particular foreign trade. It has also caused major changes in the geographical structure of its imports and exports. Due to the Russian blockade, Ukrainian ports have lost their status as the country’s main export gateway. Rail and road transport has gained in importance, as since 24 February 2022 Ukraine has used them to ship and import most of its goods via the territory of its western neighbors. As a consequence, the European Union has consolidated its role as Kyiv’s main trade partner in both exports and imports, while Poland – for the first time in history – has become the leader in Ukraine’s trade exchange.

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War as the new normal: Ukraine six months since the Russian invasion

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 2021 Ukraine was celebrating the beginning of the fourth decade of its independence. Selected units of its Armed Forces paraded through Khreshchatyk, Kyiv’s main street. It would never have occurred to the Ukrainian citizens and politicians or foreign guests who gathered on that day in Kyiv that half a year later the same units would face a full-scale invasion, and even more so, that six months after invasion they would still be successfully defending themselves. After six months, war is slowly becoming the new normal. Although Russia is trudging towards the borders of the Donetsk oblast in the east, and Ukraine still lacks sufficient forces to launch a counteroffensive in the south, the series of explosions at military facilities seen in August in Crimea, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, shows that Kyiv has the potential for offensive actions. The Ukrainian public is getting poorer and increasingly tired, but it still remains resolute in resisting the aggressor and supporting the government’s policies. Only a small minority believe that Ukraine should put an end to the war at the price of political concessions, and the view that territorial concessions should be made remains a marginal one. The economy is also adapting to the wartime conditions. Despite the deep crisis, the decline in exports is abating, and companies are resuming their businesses or moving them to safer areas of the country while looking for new sales channels abroad. However, the state budget is still dependent on financial support from the West, and this will not change in the coming months.

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Ukrainian oligarchs in wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Russia’s military invasion has contributed to a major decline in the role of oligarchs in Ukraine. This is largely due to the fact that domestic political rivalry both in the media and in parliament has ceased, which in turn has reduced the role played by those spheres of life in which their influence was most perceptible. Ukraine’s main political forces have backed President Volodymyr Zelensky in defending the country, as a result of which laws are presently passed almost unanimously. In addition, the most important oligarch-owned TV stations, which before the war formed their main tool of influence, have decided to air a joint news programme. Alongside this, the owners’ control of broadcasting content has been further weakened through specific legal regulations. Some oligarchs have lost portions of their assets as a result of military activity and occupation, and some have suffered significant financial losses due to the economic crisis and export restrictions in a situation when they still need to service their foreign debt. Most of the oligarchs have offered funds to help the country in its fight against the aggressor, but some of these activities are being kept low-profile. If the war’s outcome is positive for Ukraine, and if Kyiv receives substantial Western support for its recovery and investment effort, the position of the oligarchs will diminish, and the president, who enjoys an enormously high level of trust from society, will in practical terms be free to continue to reduce the oligarchs’ influence on Ukraine’s political life.

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Dangerous liaisons. A quick and coordinate withdrawal from Russian gas is proving hard for the EU

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The REPowerEU proposals announced on 18 May confirm the EU’s desire to end its dependence on Russian energy. Nonetheless, it illustrates the problems associated with the process of withdrawing from Russian gas, and above all with the rapid reduction of importing it. The heavy dependence which some EU countries have on Russian gas, the persistence of very high prices and the prospect of crisis and potential shortages in the coming winter make it difficult for the EU to agree internally on a significant, coordinated reduction in supplies this year. As a result, on the one hand, intra-EU discussions about sanctions on Russian gas are very difficult and increasingly rare, while on the other hand, some restraint in the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU ambitions regarding the level and pace of reductions in Russian imports is becoming apparent. This weakness of the EU is being exploited by Moscow. Russian counter-sanctions, including the ‘roubles-for-gas’ demand, not only lead to divisions within the EU but also reverse the previous logic of the discussion. The majority of states and companies active on the EU market, instead of thinking about ways to limit imports of Russian gas as quickly as possible, began thinking about ways to guarantee their supplies under new conditions. Therefore, the role of the European Commission in working out common principles for EU gas relations with Russia is diminishing, in favour of the individual actions of member states, which weakens the consistency of EU action. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be taking control of the process of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the European market. While still maintaining a significant level of exports, Moscow is also maintaining an energy weapon that it could use against the EU in the context of the approaching winter.

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A war not won, a war not lost. The military situation after 100 days of the Russian aggression against Ukraine

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

One hundred days of Russian aggression against Ukraine has still not answered the basic question: who will win? The first phase of the clash – a manoeuvre warfare until the end of March, in which the aggressor had broadly defined operational goals – ended in failure for Russia, and resulted in it withdrawing from one of the two main theatres of operations and reducing its aspirations in other directions. The trench warfare phase, which has lasted since the turn of April, has not led to a breakthrough, but the extended actions have exhausted the Ukrainian army to an extent that the enemy has been able to make slow but consistent progress in achieving its assumed minimum goal: taking control of the entire Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. Moscow has largely achieved this aim; since 24 February it has taken control of80,000 km² of Ukraine’s territory. It is not enough simply to maintain the status quo regarding external support for Ukraine, without which it will no longer be able to fight off the aggressor. The comprehensive rearming of the Ukrainian army with Western weapons and military equipment offers a chance to stop the Russian aggression. Moreover, in order to defeat Russia militarily, the West must display an attitude of consistent solidarity.

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Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

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