We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

0.00 €

Big Gestures, Small Actions: Paradoxes of Slovakia’s Policy towards Russia

Author(s): Dariusz Kałan,Ágnes Vass / Language(s): English

Robert Fico’s presence in Moscow during the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War is another example of the support given to Russia by Slovakia during the deepening conflict in eastern Ukraine. However, this type of gesture from Bratislava, although risky from the point of view of its European policy, does not always coincide with its political aims, which, especially in the energy sector, are rather associated with a reduction of dependence on Russia. Slovakia should use the Ukrainian crisis to accelerate diversification and possibly also to modify its foreign policy model of balancing between Moscow and Brussels.

More...

0.00 €

Foreign Policy in the Legislative Elections in Israel

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The elections to the Israeli Knesset, scheduled for 17 March, are taking place in a specific international context of a destabilised neighbourhood, renewed tensions with Palestine, ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear programme, and a new dispute with Israel’s most important ally, the United States. Foreign policy has therefore become an important subject in the electoral campaign. The shape of the future coalition and its immediate decisions will weigh on Israel’s standing on the international arena.

More...

0.00 €

Polityka zagraniczna w wyborach parlamentarnych w Izraelu

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Zaplanowane na 17 marca wybory do izraelskiego Knesetu odbywają się w szczególnym kontekście międzynarodowym: zdestabilizowanego sąsiedztwa, napiętego konfliktu z Palestyńczykami, trwających rozmów P5+1 nt. irańskiego programu nuklearnego oraz nieporozumień z najważniejszym sojusznikiem – Stanami Zjednoczonymi. Polityka zagraniczna stała się więc ważnym tematem kampanii wyborczej, a kształt przyszłej koalicji zyskuje dodatkowe znaczenie, bo decyzje następnego rządu zaważą na wizerunku Izraela na arenie międzynarodowej.

More...

0.00 €

Turkey’s Policy towards Egypt and Its Deepening Isolation in the East Mediterranean

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

In denouncing the current Egyptian government, Turkey has become further isolated in the regional arena, especially after Qatar started shifting its position on Egypt towards one more favourable. Combined with previous diplomatic failures involving key players in the region, Turkey’s isolation risks damaging its national interests, notably in its energy and maritime zone disputes with Cyprus. This creates potential for future instability in the East Mediterranean, and it is in EU’s long-term interest to support Turkey’s political actors in finding a common way to lessen the country’s isolation.

More...

0.00 €

Never-ending Story: Scenarios for Further Nuclear Negotiations with Iran

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The latest round of nuclear negotiations with Iran has been recognised as having made limited progress without bringing a compromise on the essential issues of the scale and quality of Tehran’s uranium enrichment any closer. Prolonged talks may yet end in either fiasco or success, however the development of a framework political agreement to bring forward the deadline for an agreement on technical details to July 2015 would be the optimal result. Only with the conclusion of these agreements would the possibility that the EU may gradually phase out its sanctions and more opportunities for bilateral contacts with Iran emerge.

More...

0.00 €

Rozmowy niedokończone: scenariusze przebiegu negocjacji nuklearnych z Iranem

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Ostatnia runda negocjacji nad programem jądrowym Iranu została uznana za niewielki postęp – nie przybliżyła kompromisu w sprawie skali i poziomu wzbogacania uranu. Wydłużone rozmowy nie wykluczają ani całkowitego sukcesu, ani fiaska w lipcu 2015 r., choć najlepszy byłby scenariusz zakładający osiągnięcie porozumienia ramowego wraz z przyspieszeniem prac nad kwestiami technicznymi. Dopiero ich przyjęcie pozwoli na stopniowe znoszenie sankcji UE, a dla krajów Unii Europejskiej stworzy większe możliwości w kontaktach dwustronnych z Iranem.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the country’s already extremely difficult demographic situation, creating the prospect of a demographic catastrophe. Over the course of its three decades of independence, Ukraine has experienced a deepening population loss due to negative birth rates and high migration dynamics. Although Ukraine had a population of 51.5 million after gaining independence, in 2019 its estimated population size was a mere37 million. The ongoing war has resulted in a large (although undisclosed) number of both military (mostly men in their prime) and civilian casualties, and has triggered a wave of refugees whose prospects of returning to their former places of residence are unclear. The invasion has worsened the physical and mental health of Ukrainian citizens and contributed to further negative trends in the younger generations’ decisions to procreate, out of uncertainty regarding the economic situation in the near to mid-term future.

More...

0.00 €

From Popasna to Bakhmut. The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

The Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group was not engaged in the fighting in Ukraine until April 2022, when it turned out that the regular army was unable to breakthrough their opponents’ defences in the Donbas. In May and June, the mercenaries became the ‘assault engine’ of the offensive: they played a key role in capturing Popasna and entering the outskirts of Bakhmut. In the summer, Vladimir Putin decided to turn the Wagner Group into a separate unit operating as part of the Russian troops in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and criminal who manages this structure on behalf of the Kremlin, was given a large dose of independence and permission to recruit prisoners en masse. Despite recruiting tens of thousands of criminals into the ranks and receiving comprehensive logistical and material support from the resources of the regular army, the Wagner Group has still failed to capture Bakhmut. However, they have managed to tie down significant enemy forces in this part of the Donbas, and thus prevented their engagement in the offensives near Kherson and in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. The Wagner Group’s autumn offensives largely contributed to stabilizing the front in what was a critical period for the invaders. It seems that this formation’s combat value and importance as part of the troops engaged in Ukraine will gradually decrease, due to the huge losses suffered by Prigozhin’s mercenaries in the battles of Bakhmut and the exhaustion of the current recruitment model.

More...

0.00 €

Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine Seeking to Narrow Long-Range Missile Gap

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Ukraine has negligible capabilities for missile strikes at ranges greater than 100 km. This gap in Ukrainian offensive systems slows the conduct of counter-offensives and will hinder its strategic isolation of Crimea, as well as defence and deterrence in the future. Filling this gap requires decisions by Ukraine’s main partners on supplying it with, primarily, ATACMS and Taurus missiles.

More...

0.00 €

Putin Begins Dismantling Prigozhin’s “Empire”

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The consequence of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny will be the seizure of some of his assets by President Vladimir Putin’s trusted people. Prigozhin has carried out many activities useful to the Russian power elite, both in Russia and abroad. Thanks to the Prigozhin-led Wagner Group, Russia has been consolidating its influence on the African continent and enjoying some military success on the Ukrainian front. NATO countries can benefit from the weakening of the Wagner Group, but Poland should also prepare for hybrid actions by the mercenaries from Belarusian territory.

More...

0.00 €

Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect - a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.

More...

0.00 €

Problems and Capability Gaps in Military Aid for Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

International support for Ukraine has played an important role in preserving its independence, but is still not enough to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas. With the current high-intensity conflict, military supplies to Ukraine are not at the necessary level and not arriving on time. Many political, administrative, and technical issues are slowing down necessary military aid. Western partners might turn to much better, already available options to replace Ukraine’s damaged and lost heavy weapons, while also supporting the countries of Central Europe.

More...

0.00 €

ISIS Increasingly Eyes Sub-Saharan Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a priority for ISIS, which seeks to strengthen its potential and propaganda in the region where the terrorist organisation has staged the most attacks in recent months. The increasing ties between Sub-Saharan militant groups and ISIS Central, in conjunction with the weakening military involvement of France in the region, will make it difficult to combat terrorism. It will also increase the threat to European entities in the region, but not Europe itself.

More...

0.00 €

What are the Prospects the U.S. Authorities will Designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism?

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In July, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called on the U.S. Secretary of State to designate the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Secretary Antony Blinken expressed scepticism as to whether such a step was needed, revealing differences between the administration and Congress on the issue. Including Russia on the list would have a number of legal and financial consequences, such as increased restrictions and opening a discussion on possible secondary sanctions against Russia.

More...

0.00 €

Ethiopia and Tigrayans Pursue a Complicated Peace

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The recognition by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that the use of force in Tigray province has been ineffective is, with international diplomatic efforts, conducive to ending the Ethiopian civil war. Preparations are underway to start direct talks between the central government and the Tigrayan leadership. EU and U.S. envoys primarily seek to unlock basic services from the Ethiopian government for the inhabitants of Tigray.

More...

0.00 €

Assessing the Perspectives on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Another armed escalation between Armenian and Azeri forces, initiated by Azerbaijan, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August this year. The country’s goal is to exert maximum political pressure on Armenia during two-track peace talks under the auspices of the EU and Russia. At the moment, there is no chance of resolving the conflict, as it would not benefit Azerbaijan, which is the stronger side of the conflict, nor Russia, which is using the situation in the NK to emphasise its role as a mediator and to get the U.S. and EU countries to resume political dialogue with it.

More...

0.00 €

China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.

More...

0.00 €

A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Russia was forced to modify its plan after its military operation in Ukraine failed. The original intention was the rapid political subjugation of Ukraine. The new plan involves Russia consolidating its position in the territories that it has managed to seize thus far. As a result of major resistance on the part of Ukrainian society, the Kremlin has abandoned its planned implementation of a technique known from 2014 involving the creation of so-called people’s republics in the occupied Kherson Oblast and portions of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Since May 2022, Russian government officials have increasingly frequently spoken of annexing the occupied territories, making reference to the history of the Russian Empire and to the Taurida and Kherson governorates created in 1802. As concerns the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), the plan to incorporate them into the Russian Federation should be viewed as a correction of the strategy pursued following the signing of the so-called Minsk agreements in 2015, which specified that the Donbas would be granted special status within the Ukrainian state. The self-proclaimed republics and the territories that have been seized since the beginning of the war, covering more than 80,000 square kilometres, are to become an integral part of Russia. This will enable Moscow to maintain a corridor leading to occupied Crimea, to present the “special military operation” as a Russian victory and to launch another stage of the process of “uniting Russian lands”.

More...

0.00 €

Russia Threatens Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Russian threats increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, but it still appears to be remote. Such an attack most likely would be preceded by more direct signals than Putin’s ambiguous warnings. Although such a strike would not guarantee a Russian victory, Putin might still order it in an act of desperation. To counter this risk, Russia must be convinced that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will trigger a strong international response, including conventional military intervention by the U.S. and its allies.

More...