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Current state, prospects, successes and multilateral gaps of international sanctions regime against the Russian Federation

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): Ukrainian

Economic, diplomatic and other sanctions have become a standard tool for international policy. The states that implement them use sanctions as an instrument of pressure to influence the geopolitical decisions of the government of the country against which they are directed. In 2014, in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the east Ukraine, the United States, the EU, Canada, Australia and other countries have imposed sanctions againstthe aggressor. Russia has become the largest and most influential country against which such harsh sanctions have been imposed. Despite Russia's important position in the international arena, the US and the EU have stated that they will not lift sanctions regime until Russia’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the return of the Crimean peninsula.

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Wagner Group Transforms in the Wake of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Composed of mercenaries, the Wagner Group is being used by the Russian government to carry out operations in Ukraine and strengthen Russia’s influence in Africa and the Middle East. Its overt participation in the war in Ukraine has forced a change in the nature of the group from an elite unit carrying out special operations tasks to an organisation utilising mass conscription of convicts sent to the frontline. Russia bears the legal responsibility for the Wagner Group’s war crimes. To limit the group’s freedom of action, the EU and the U.S. should recognise it as a terrorist organisation and extend sanctions to its affiliates.

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Eyes west! A shift in focus in Russia’s Southern Military District

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Southern Military District (SMD), which is the smallest of all the main administrative units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of landmass, has been one of the most powerful districts and one of those playing the greatest roles in the armed conflicts in which Russia is engaged. In the two Chechen wars and the strike against Georgia in 2008, it bore the main brunt, and at present currently, along with the Black Sea Fleet (which is under its command), it bears the main responsibility for operations against Ukraine and for the military operation in Syria.

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The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing

Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English

On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.

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Prospects Dim for Settling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English

Despite the intensification of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, no breakthrough has been achieved. The leaders of the countries, respectively, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, declare their willingness to reach an agreement, but have not come to terms on any major issue. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, and the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remain unresolved, raising fears of a renewed war.

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The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.

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France-Rwanda Reconciliation Follows Genocide Report

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In March, a commission of historians commissioned by President Emmanuel Macron to study France’s role before and during the Rwandan genocide in 1994 published the results of their research. Its conclusions were critical of France and well-received in Rwanda. That paved the way for the first visit to Rwanda in a decade by the French leader. The end of more than 25 years of mutual hostility will bring political benefits to both sides. The historians’ report contributes to the discussion about the future of humanitarian interventions.

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Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.

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The Potential Threat of the Ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaida

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government and security forces might increase the terrorist threat to the U.S. and Europe. During the period before 11 September 2001, the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Afghan fundamentalists cooperated closely. According to UN estimates, there are currently between a few hundred to a thousand members of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Despite weakening since the death of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida in future might use Afghanistan to regroup and as a safe haven.

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The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.

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Prospects for ISIS in Afghanistan

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The ISIS faction Khorasan Province, ISIS-K, is using Afghanistan’s internal destabilisation to grow its structures in the region. It will mobilise supporters from neighbouring countries to challenge the strength of the Taliban and their ally Al-Qaida. ISIS-K is much weaker than them but aspires for a greater role through the escalating use of violence. By controlling part of Afghanistan, ISIS-K intends to build structures like those in Syria and Iraq in 2013-2019. The success of these plans would further threaten the security of the countries of Central and South Asia and increase the terrorist threat to Europe.

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Turkey Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.

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The Future of NATO Crisis-Response Operations: Lessons from Kosovo

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

The September incidents on the Kosovo-Serbia border, which ended with an effective NATO and EU response, show that developing cooperation with partners is crucial to the effectiveness of the Alliance’s involvement in stabilisation operations. The experiences and lessons from the NATO KFOR mission should influence the discussion on the role of crisis-response operations in the Alliance’s future strategy. The chaotic end of the mission in Afghanistan undermined the image of NATO as an organisation capable of conducting effective non-Article 5 operations. KFOR has, however, demonstrated that the Alliance can act effectively in cooperation with the EU.

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A Revision of Special Relations? Israel in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

In recent months, Germany has been working intensively to stop Israeli plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. This was facilitated by the use of Israel’s special status in German foreign policy and constant diplomatic involvement in the conflict between Israel and Palestine. However, if the annexation takes place, it could induce Germany to revise its support for Israel. This is most likely to result other EU countries modifying their policies.

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A New Jihadist Front in Mozambique

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.

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Palestyna w polityce zagranicznej Turcji

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Turcja umacnia się w roli głównego politycznego patrona Palestyńczyków na Bliskim Wschodzie. Jej politykę wobec Palestyny warunkują napięcia w relacjach z Izraelem, chęć odgrywania roli lidera świata islamu oraz rosnący rozdźwięk między palestyńskimi władzami i ich arabskimi sojusznikami. Swoje zaangażowanie Turcja będzie wykorzystywała w rywalizacji regionalnej. Sprzeciw wobec izraelsko-arabskiej normalizacji i bliskie związki z Hamasem będą się negatywnie odbijały na stosunkach Turcji z USA.

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“Russian Truce”: The Tense Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The truce ending the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) constitutes the capitulation of Armenia and effectively divides the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijan. However, it does not end the Armenian-Azeri conflict, which is both territorial and ethnic. The truce is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to cease fighting and brought its own troops into the NK. The EU and Poland may consider increasing humanitarian aid for the victims.

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Water Shortages in Occupied Crimea

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Water shortages in occupied Crimea are of a long-term character since its local resources are insufficient to meet its needs. In the short term, the Russian authorities will attempt to resolve the water deficit on an ad hoc basis while stepping up pressure on Ukraine to unblock the North Crimean Canal. A forced takeover of the canal by the Russian military should be considered a last resort, given that the cost of such an operation for Russia would significantly exceed the possible benefit.

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№110: The Border Crisis as an Example of Hybrid Warfare

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The crisis on the border of Belarus with three EU and NATO countries - Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia - that started nearly a year ago, in spring, was caused by the Belarusian authorities on purpose. Initially, they wanted to divert attention from the country’s internal situation and undermine the international position of their western neighbours while forcing the EU to negotiate the sanctions. During the crisis, these goals evolved into a multi-faceted hybrid operation backed by Russia. Considering that provoking a conflict below the threshold of war is an effective way to significantly engage an opposing party’s forces and resources, it is expected that hybrid activities against EU and NATO members will only increase in the future. The Union and Alliance can oppose such tactics by strengthening their own resilience and cooperating with allies to counter hybrid threats.

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№121: EU Responses to the Potential of an Armed Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The U.S.-China rivalry, development of China’s military potential, and growing nationalist Chinese rhetoric, including declarations about the future “reintegration” with Taiwan, increase the risk of an armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years. Given the strong economic ties between EU countries and China, it is in the Union’s interests to decrease the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while reducing its dependence on China. For this, diversification is needed in the economic dimension, including developing the EU’s production potential and strengthening cooperation to maintain Taiwan’s security, especially with the U.S. and Japan. Moreover, starting work on a catalogue of possible sanctions if there is an attack on the island may act as a deterrent to China.

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