Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe
Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża
Subject(s): Demography and human biology, Migration Studies, Peace and Conflict Studies, Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Published by: OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia
Keywords: Ukraine; Demographic crisis; Russian-Ukrainian War; Refugees; population decline;
Summary/Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the country’s already extremely difficult demographic situation, creating the prospect of a demographic catastrophe. Over the course of its three decades of independence, Ukraine has experienced a deepening population loss due to negative birth rates and high migration dynamics. Although Ukraine had a population of 51.5 million after gaining independence, in 2019 its estimated population size was a mere37 million. The ongoing war has resulted in a large (although undisclosed) number of both military (mostly men in their prime) and civilian casualties, and has triggered a wave of refugees whose prospects of returning to their former places of residence are unclear. The invasion has worsened the physical and mental health of Ukrainian citizens and contributed to further negative trends in the younger generations’ decisions to procreate, out of uncertainty regarding the economic situation in the near to mid-term future.

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