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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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President Emmanuel Macron’s EU Reform Plan: Appraisal and Prospects

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

A year after announcing a plan for reforming the European Union, Emmanuel Macron has made progress with only some of his initiatives. Developments in the field of industrial and defence cooperation reflect, to an extent, the French president’s proposals. Differences of opinion between EU Member States thwarted changes concerning migration policy and the eurozone. The “multi-speed Europe” scenario, entailing the emergence of an avant-garde of countries interested in closer integration, is less likely today than it was a year ago.

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Plan reform Unii Europejskiej według Emmanuela Macrona: bilans i perspektywy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): Polish

W ciągu roku od ogłoszenia planu zmian w Unii Europejskiej prezydent Francji osiągnął postęp w realizacji tylko części swoich postulatów. Rozwój inicjatyw w zakresie współpracy przemysłowo-obronnej odzwierciedla, choć nie w pełni, propozycje Macrona. Ze względu na różnice zdań między państwami członkowskimi nie udało się przeprowadzić zmian w polityce migracyjnej i dotyczących strefy euro. Scenariusz „Europy wielu prędkości”, zakładający powstanie awangardy państw zainteresowanych ściślejszą integracją, jest dziś mniej prawdopodobny niż rok temu.

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Bulgaria’s National Identity Policy in the Balkans

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Bulgaria claims a special competence to shape relations between the EU and the Western Balkans. While holding its first presidency of the Council of the EU, Bulgaria sought to strengthen its influence on European policy towards the region. At the same time, it tried to convince the Balkan states that their integration with the EU would not be possible without Bulgarian support. This two-pronged approach allows the Bulgarian authorities to raise the status of the Bulgarian minority with respect to the Balkan partners, which may affect the stability of the Western Balkans and their integration with the EU.

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Bułgarska polityka tożsamościowa na Bałkanach

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): Polish

Bułgaria podkreśla swoje szczególne kompetencje do kształtowania relacji Unii Europejskiej z Bałkanami Zachodnimi. Sprawując pierwszą prezydencję w Radzie UE, dążyła do umocnienia wpływu na politykę europejską wobec regionu. Starała się przy tym przekonać państwa bałkańskie, że ich integracja z UE nie będzie możliwa bez bułgarskiego wsparcia. Ułatwia to władzom Bułgarii podnoszenie wobec bałkańskich partnerów kwestii statusu bułgarskiej mniejszości, co może niekorzystnie wpłynąć na stabilność Bałkanów Zachodnich i ich integrację z UE.

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“A Europe that Protects”: Austria’s EU Council Presidency

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The number one priority of the Austrian presidency of the EU Council, which began on 1 July, is security. This issue is subordinated to the other main points of the presidency programme: migration, digitisation, and integration of the Western Balkans with the EU. Although the Austrian approach is similar to the Polish one in the sphere of migration policy, differences remain regarding the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021–2027 (MFF), energy policy, and the European Commission’s enforcement of the rule of law.

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„Europa, która chroni” – prezydencja Austrii w Radzie UE

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): Polish

Priorytetem Austrii podczas rozpoczętej 1 lipca prezydencji w Radzie UE jest bezpieczeństwo. Kwestii tej podporządkowane są główne punkty programu prezydencji: migracja, cyfryzacja oraz integracja Bałkanów Zachodnich z UE. Chociaż w sferze polityki migracyjnej podejście austriackie jest zbliżone do polskiego, pozostają różnice dotyczące wieloletnich ram finansowych UE na lata 2021–2027, polityki energetycznej i egzekwowania przez Komisję Europejską zasady praworządności.

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Powrót widma Grexitu. Słabnący mandat Ciprasa do prowadzenia reform

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): Polish

Choć grecki parlament w szybkim tempie przegłosowuje akty prawne związane z trzecim pakietem pomocowym, rośnie zagrożenie spowolnieniem procesu lub nawet zatrzymaniem go. Może to w konsekwencji doprowadzić do ponownego podjęcia dyskusji w strefie euro o rewizji sposobu pomocy dla Grecji lub o możliwości Grexitu.

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Przegląd polityki sąsiedztwa: niewystarczające zmiany

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): Polish

Propozycje zreformowania unijnej polityki sąsiedztwa nie wprowadzają znaczących ulepszeń. Ich wdrożenie będzie wymagać dostosowania pomocy finansowej do założeń przedstawionych w rewizji i przeprowadzenia reformy mechanizmu wsparcia budżetowego. Unia powinna też pomóc krajom stowarzyszonym w wypełnieniu umów o pogłębionych strefach wolnego handlu (DCFTA).

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Freeze the Grexit: Germany and the Latest Escalation of Eurozone Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

A Greek exit from the eurozone is an unfavourable scenario for Germany. It would threaten not only German debt and economic interests but also its political leadership in the European Union, which Berlin has developed in recent years. The safest option is a continuation of support for Greece: strong enough to not bankrupt it, and modest enough not to strengthen the Syriza government.

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Zamrozić Grexit. Niemcy wobec kryzysu strefy euro

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): Polish

Wyjście Grecji ze strefy euro jest scenariuszem niekorzystnym dla Niemiec. Zagrożone byłyby nie tylko niemieckie wierzytelności i interesy gospodarcze, lecz także pozycja politycznego lidera w Unii Europejskiej, którą Berlin wypracował w ostatnich latach. Najbezpieczniejsza opcja to kontynuacja wsparcia dla Grecji: na tyle znacznego, by nie zbankrutowała, i na tyle skromnego, by nie wzmacniać rządu Syrizy.

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EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

In its strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), announced on 7 June, the European Union mainly proposes cooperation in defending the rules-based international order, enhancing economic ties, and promoting sustainable social development. Itis part of the EU’s drive to renew its strategic partnership with LAC to compete more effectively with China’s growing regional presence, among other reasons. The Union is therefore intensifying contacts at the highest level and engagement through the Global Gateway infrastructure investment programme.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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Evolution of EU Travel Rules During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the development of the vaccination process in the EU are changing the rules of travel within the territory of the Community. New guidelines on this matter adopted by the Council of the EU in January focus not so much on the country of departure of the traveller as on his/her personal health situation. This more individualised approach is to make it possible to dispense with additional ad hoc travel restrictions imposed by Member States. At the same time, it promotes vaccination, recognising it as essential in fighting the pandemic.

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Hungary and the Russian Threat of Further Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Hungary considers the dispute between the West and Russia over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine is of no concern to it. The government defines its stance from a neutral third party position. It neither condemns Russia’s actions nor supports Ukraine. Past actions indicate Hungary will not veto EU and allied actions against Russia if it would be the only country to break from common positions, however, it will continue to act to the benefit of Russia by trying to weaken Euro-Atlantic structures and impede cooperation with Ukraine.

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The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

31 March 2023 saw the publication of a joint letter by the prime ministers of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and the president of Bulgaria, to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the measures they intended to take to counteract the negative effects of the increased imports of agricultural products from Ukraine to the EU. The document highlights the unprecedented increases in imports of grain, oil seeds, fruit, dairy and honey. It also proposes measures to improve the situation of local agricultural producers, including increasing the financial support offered to them. The authors of the letter emphasise that if the market disruptions cannot be eliminated by other means, tariffs and tariff rate quotas will need to be re-introduced on imports from Ukraine (they were suspended in June 2022). On 7 April 2023, Warsaw and Kyiv reached an agreement on suspending the export of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and rapeseed to Poland until the beginning of the new season (summer), while the transit of Ukrainian produce via Polish territory will be maintained.

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The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Global Gateway (GG) strategy aims to increase the EU’s infrastructure connections on a global scale. The strategy might lead to improving the Union’s image, for example, in its immediate vicinity, and increasing the participation of Member State entities in the implementation of EU projects. The challenge is how to effectively coordinate the strategy amongst EU institutions and get private sector cooperation. For Poland, it will be important to accelerate investments in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region and to diversify transport corridors from the EU to China.

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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

In response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the European Union may consider imposing an embargo on Russian arms exports to its partners in the form of secondary sanctions. The aim would be to discourage third countries from purchasing weapons from Russia and to reduce the profits of the Russian defence industry. This could translate into lower revenues for the Russian budget and limiting its influence in the world. The EU should coordinate actions with the U.S. and its allies, including adopting a programme of support in the replacement of Russian weapons by states that are its traditional recipients.

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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.

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A tactical pause in relations with the West: China plays on hopes for peace

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In November 2022, China’s leader Xi Jinping embarked on a wide-ranging diplomatic campaign to prevent an uncontrolled breakdown of relations with the West, which should be considered a short-term success, at least in terms of reopening channels of communication with Western countries. This move has succeeded owing to Beijing’s instrumental use of the West’s hopes that it can secure China’s opposition to Russia’s possible use of weapons of mass destruction, and belief that China might be willing to mediate peace in Ukraine. The PRC’s actions have also met the expectations of its Western partners as they look for ways to stabilise relations with Beijing in the face of a looming global economic crisis. At present, we can say that the escalation has been halted, although the negative trend in China’s relations with the West –in particular with the United States – has not been reversed. Faced with economic and social challenges at home, the PRC will make further efforts to avoid economic confrontation with the West in the immediate future, by using more or less veiled suggestions of possible mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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