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A HOLLOW PROMISE? The Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc
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A HOLLOW PROMISE? The Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In Bosnia’s local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.

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REBUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SARAJEVO: The Need for Minority Returns
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REBUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SARAJEVO: The Need for Minority Returns

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina’s rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, ist citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace. (ICG Bosnia Project - Report No 30)

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Brcko: What Bosnia Could Be
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Brcko: What Bosnia Could Be

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The fate of the Brčko area, whether it should be in the Federation or Republika Srpska, was considered too contentious to be resolved in the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and was left to binding arbitration. The Arbitral Tribunal announced an interim decision on 14 February 1997: the Tribunal retained jurisdiction on the matter for another year; maintained the territorial status quo leaving the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL) which divides the pre-war municipality; enumerated obligations for the parties to fulfil, including the return and reintegration of displaced person and the establishment of a multi-ethnic administration in part of the municipality held by Republika Srpska; provided for the establishment of the office of an International Supervisor to oversee the implementation of those obligations; and conditioned the final outcome of the arbitration on the conduct of the parties during the year. The Tribunal is scheduled to give a final ruling by 15 March this year

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KOSOVO SPRING (ICG Report Pristina- Sarajevo)
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KOSOVO SPRING (ICG Report Pristina- Sarajevo)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The report examines the evolution of relations between Serbs and Kosovars in Kosovo, the importance of the region to both communities and their competing claims. Since 1989 when Serbia forcibly stripped Kosovo of autonomy, a parallel Kosovar society has emerged within the province which exists almost completely outside the Serbian state. The report assesses the significance and sustainability of the parallel institutions, in particular the education and health care systems. It also critically analyses Kosovar politics and the policies of the undisputed Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova who charted the non-violent course which, until very recently, all Kosovars obediently followed. If Kosovar elections do go ahead as scheduled on 22 March, Rugova will surely be re-elected president, since he is the only candidate standing. Special sections are devoted to the economy, media and the Kosovo Liberation Army, UCK. The report considers Kosovo in its regional context, in relations to Serbia, Yugoslavia, Albania and the entire Balkan region. It examines initial diplomatic attempts to head off further fighting and find a solution. And it analyses the relative merits of the various solutions -- ranging from maintaining the status quo to full independence -- which are currently on offer. In a final section ICG presents a series of recommendations which, if taken up by policy-makers, could contribute to an eventual settlement in Kosovo. Appendices at the end include a chronology and a who’s who of Kosovo political life.

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Minority Return or Mass Relocation? (ICG Bosnia Project - Report Nº 33)
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Minority Return or Mass Relocation? (ICG Bosnia Project - Report Nº 33)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.

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THE KONJIC CONUNDRUM: Why Minorities have failed to return to Model Open City
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THE KONJIC CONUNDRUM: Why Minorities have failed to return to Model Open City

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR’s approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.

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THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN MACEDONIA: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia (ICG Balkans Report N° 38)
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THE ALBANIAN QUESTION IN MACEDONIA: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia (ICG Balkans Report N° 38)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country’s very existence may be imperilled.

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CHANGING COURSE?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics (ICG Balkans Report N° 39)
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CHANGING COURSE?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics (ICG Balkans Report N° 39)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman. Long-standing divisions between those who emphasise western Herzegovina and those who wish to secure the future of Croats throughout Bosnia have led to a split in the HDZBiH and the formation of the New Croat Initiative (Nova Hrvatska inicijativa or NHI), led by the Croat member of the joint Bosnian presidency, Kresimir Zubak. The rift in the HDZBiH widened after the death, at the beginning of May 1998, of the Croatian defence minister, Gojko Susak, which left the HDZBiH without a figure with the authority to hold together its different strands. At the HDZBiH congress in May 1998, the party's hard-liners, against Tudjman's wishes, secured the election of the Bosnian Federation's defence minister, Ante Jelavic, as party president, defeating the comparatively moderate candidate favoured by Zubak, Bozo Ljubic.

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IMPUNITY IN DRVAR (ICG Balkans Report N° 40)
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IMPUNITY IN DRVAR (ICG Balkans Report N° 40)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar -- whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb -- offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia. In the wake of the riots, key international officials flocked to Drvar, among them High Representative Carlos Westendorp and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, General Wesley Clark, as well as the heads of most of the international organisations in Bosnia, and even several US Congressmen. All stated emphatically that violence was unacceptable, that the right of Serbs to return would be supported, and that those responsible would be brought to justice.

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KOSOVO’S LONG HOT SUMMER: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report No.41)
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KOSOVO’S LONG HOT SUMMER: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report No.41)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report examines the evolution of the UCK, its genesis, military fortunes, political impact and prospects. It considers the current humanitarian crisis. And it analyses the internal dynamics of ethnic Albanian politics in and concerning Kosovo and their impact on the options that the international community may contemplate to promote a political solution to the conflict.

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TOO LITTLE TOO LATE: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration (ICG Balkans Report N° 44)
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TOO LITTLE TOO LATE: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration (ICG Balkans Report N° 44)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Sarajevo’s Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.” Seven months on, the Sarajevo authorities have failed to meet most of the Declaration’s main benchmarks or take adequate, concrete steps to enable the return of anywhere close to 20,000 minorities this year. Indeed, as of early August, only 1,300 minorities -- 7 percent of the target number -- had actually returned. These failures are, in large part, due to stalling, incompetence and general lack of will on the part of Sarajevo authorities and officials of the ruling SDA (Party of Democratic Action).

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1998 ELECTIONS IN MACEDONIA (ICG Balkans Report N°45)
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1998 ELECTIONS IN MACEDONIA (ICG Balkans Report N°45)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country’s parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia’s third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.

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INTERMEDIATE SOVEREIGNTY AS A BASIS FOR RESOLVING THE KOSOVO CRISIS (A Discussion Paper - ICG Balkans Report N°46)
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INTERMEDIATE SOVEREIGNTY AS A BASIS FOR RESOLVING THE KOSOVO CRISIS (A Discussion Paper - ICG Balkans Report N°46)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group. The legal analysis contained in this report is significant because it sets out the legal arguments that differentiate the Kosovo Albanians’ claim to independence from those of other minority groups in the region. By reference to the constitution of the former Yugoslavia, recognized principles of international law and legal precedent expressed in decisions of the International Court of Justice and various international treaties, the authors argue that independence for Kosovo would not necessarily create a dangerous precedent for the rest of the region.

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SANDZAK: CALM FOR NOW (ICG Balkans Report N°48)
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SANDZAK: CALM FOR NOW (ICG Balkans Report N°48)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic’s continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.

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BREAKING THE LOGJAM: REFUGEE RETURNS TO CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°49)
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BREAKING THE LOGJAM: REFUGEE RETURNS TO CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°49)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The position Croatia's Serbs has long been contentious. Croat nationalists have often seen the Croatian Serbs as a Trojan Horse that has been used to undermine Croatia, with the aim of carving out pieces of Croatian territory and joining them to a Greater Serbian state. In communist times there was widespread Croat resentment at perceived advantages afforded to Serbs in Croatian party bodies and institutions. Serbs for their part derived many advantages from Croatia's inclusion in Yugoslavia, which placed them in a wider union bringing together Serb communities throughout Yugoslavia. The nationalist euphoria with which most Croats greeted the assertion of Croatian sovereignty and independence in 1990- 91 caused anxiety and insecurity among Serbs which, manipulated by the Serbian leadership in Belgrade, led to an armed rebellion in regions in which Serbs formed a significant proportion of the population, and the expulsion of most Croats from those regions. Croatia's reconquest of most of those regions in 1995 met with international disapproval, due to the mass Serb exodus which it prompted and widespread atrocities against the few who remained.

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CHANGE IN THE OFFING: THE SHIFTING POLITICAL SCENE IN CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°50)
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CHANGE IN THE OFFING: THE SHIFTING POLITICAL SCENE IN CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°50)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has dominated Croatian political life since multi-party elections in April 1990 brought an end to communist rule. The HDZ has been a broad movement rather than a modern political party, representing a wide range of political views and interests, united behind its leader, President Franjo Tudjman, in the aim of achieving Croatian sovereignty and independence. In 1990-91, large areas of the country were taken over by rebellious Croatian Serbs, with support from Belgrade. Thus for most of the period of HDZ rule in Croatia, large chunks of the country remained outside Zagreb's control, and the overriding priority was to restore Croatia's territorial integrity, a goal which was finally achieved in January 1998. Croatia also became enmeshed in the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) as, supported by Croatia, the Bosnian Croats fought their erstwhile Bosniac allies in 1993-94. The obsession of Tudjman and the hard-line Herzegovina lobby in the HDZ with the dream of eventually detaching chunks of Bosnian territory and joining them with Croatia has been a persistent cause of international pressure on Croatia, as well as of division within Croatian politics.

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MACEDONIA: “NEW FACES IN SKOPJE” Lessons from the Macedonian elections and the challenges facing the new government
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MACEDONIA: “NEW FACES IN SKOPJE” Lessons from the Macedonian elections and the challenges facing the new government

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country’s development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the “radicals” from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia’s problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG’s field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges. The third multi-party parliamentary elections in Macedonia were held on 18 October and 1 November 1998. As a result, Macedonia experienced the first real change of government since it declared independence.

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TO BUILD A PEACE: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE MADRID PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL MEETING (ICG Balkans Report N°52)
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TO BUILD A PEACE: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE MADRID PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL MEETING (ICG Balkans Report N°52)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Three years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the country has many of the trappings usually associated with statehood such as a common flag, currency, vehicle licence plate and passport. However, these and other breakthroughs have generally required disproportionate amounts of time and effort on the part of the international community and have all too often been rammed through in spite of Bosnia’s domestic institutions. Despite visible progress towards many of the goals contained within the DPA, therefore, Bosnia’s peace still gives the impression that it is built on shifting sands. Moreover, although critical to the peace process, the scale of the international presence, which increasingly resembles a protectorate, is in some ways counter-productive to Bosnia’s long-term future. On the one hand, domestic institutions and politicians have to a large extent given up responsibility for governing their own country. On the other, the massive international stake has led key international players to declare the peace process a success, irrespective of how it is actually evolving. The international presence is also extremely expensive, costing some $9 billion a year.

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JUGOISTOČNA EVROPA: Regija koja Dolazi
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JUGOISTOČNA EVROPA: Regija koja Dolazi

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Does Southeast Europe have a future as a region that is still governed by an embedded subject of geopolitical power (the international community in different modalities)? If we were to decide only and only to accept historical causality, the answer is more negative than positive. But isn't Wittgenstein right when he treats the absolutization of causality as mere superstition? Even the idea of Europe, to say nothing of its institutions as a practical human purpose, would fail unreservedly if causality were the measure of all things and if there were no moderate discontinuity in the philosophy of history and social sciences (Cazes, 1992, pp. 209-266). And this discontinuity is the result of the prospecting, the foresight of the European genius who, after the Second World War, opposed the laws of historical causality.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bilateralni odnosi Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije Fokus na spoljnu politiku Srbije prema BiH
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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bilateralni odnosi Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije Fokus na spoljnu politiku Srbije prema BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Burdened by the legacy of conflict, imbued with a multitude of interests and motivations, the relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia represent a complex subject for analysis. The historical legacy in relations is an unavoidable factor in the current bilateral parallels, but for the purposes of this analysis, history will not represent a separate entity, but the background of different angles will be presented in the given context. thus, we intend to avoid a summary overview of the historical development of relations, which could easily introduce elements of prejudging contemporary and future relations, and could not be exhaustive and include all important aspects and events. the text that follows is the result of consideration of vital and central issues in the relations between the two countries, by no means a comprehensive presentation of absolutely total bilateral relations. The special attention that is focused on the foreign policy of the eastern neighbor helps to limit the analysis and thus somewhat deepens its scope. Other questions, which could also be worth studying, but did not find a place in this text, can be carried out in a similar way in further analyses.

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