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GLOBALNI I REGIONALNI POREDAK. Meka diplomatija Sjeverne Makedonije. Tranzicija Prespanskog foruma za dijalog iz brendirane vanjskopolitičke ideje u stvarnost

Author(s): Lejla Ramić-Mesihović / Language(s): Bosnian

Since the declaration of independence in 1992, the sovereignty and right to exist of the Republic of North Macedonia has been constantly under attack from its neighbors. The biggest problem and serious limitations for North Macedonian international interactions and the struggle for recognition comes from Greece, which contested the right of the new state to have any identity link with ancient Macedonia. After a three-decade dispute and struggle against the coercive diplomacy of its neighbors, the Republic of Macedonia changed its constitutional name to the Republic of North Macedonia after its Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev, a social democrat, signed the Prespa Agreement with the then Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tzipras. The non-invasive and cooperative foreign policy of the current government of North Macedonia reintroduced and underlined the pacifist and collaborative foreign policy practice that resulted in the Prespa forum initiative.

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KOSOVO: THE ROAD TO PEACE. Critical Implementation Issues and a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.

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MACEDONIA UPDATE: Challenges and Choices for the New Government (ICG Balkans Report N°60)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This latest ICG report on Macedonia was written during March, as the new humanitarian catastrophe in neighbouring Kosovo unfolded and reached a new scale. Because of the recent events in Kosovo and the region at large, parts of this report have been overtaken by new developments. In particular, this concerns issues relating to the amount of aid reaching Macedonia, actions taken to alleviate the refugee situation in Macedonia and, most importantly, the Government’s ability to deal with the increasing number of refugees. Indeed, events in the last few days may well have reached a point beyond the Government’s capacity to respond. On the whole however, the analysis and conclusions of this report are still valid and still merit consideration despite the fact that local and international attention is now focusing on developments in Kosovo and their effect on neighbouring countries

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA – POPLASEN, BRCKO AND KOSOVO: Three Crises and Out? (ICG Balkans Report N° 62)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Either of the first two issues alone would have been ordinary daily business in the bad-tempered world of Bosnian politics. The two together could probably have been handled. But RS reactions to NATO action in FRY, coming on top of the excitement already created by previous events, have raised tensions to very high levels. Numerous peaceful demonstrations have turned violent, and international organisations – usually the target of the demonstrations – have withdrawn most of their personnel. There are still elements in RS ready and willing to use violence to promote political objectives, and the current climate offers them fertile soil. The beleaguered authorities in Belgrade have every reason to foster a diversion in Bosnia to give the international community another problem besides Kosovo to worry about. The present moment could be the most dangerous for the Dayton Peace Agreement since it was signed in 1995.

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MACEDONIA: TOWARDS DESTABILISATION? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia (ICG Report N° 67)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations. This report, prepared by ICG’s field analyst in Skopje, gives a candid assessment of the current situation in Macedonia and pinpoints the threats to the country’s stability that have arisen out of the Kosovo conflict.

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IN THE POST-KOSOVO ERA: Collateral Damage and Transformation (ICG Report N° 71)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war’s collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS. Despite this the security situation, which looked dangerous at the beginning of April, did not deteriorate out of control, and the government in Banja Luka was able to stabilise its position and survive. The government itself deserves credit for keeping its head throughout the crisis. The international community, especially OHR and the US government, did good work behind the scenes keeping the ruling Sloga coalition together. And a generally well-judged and lowkey response by SFOR managed to strike a balance between preserving security and not provoking incidents by its own actions. As Republika Srpska enters the post-Kosovo era it faces a crossroads, both economically and politically. RS now can move forward towards an integrated European future as part of BiH. Or it can move backwards, towards economic, social and political misery.

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RULE OVER LAW: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Bosnia Legal Project Report N° 1)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The BiH judiciary is in transition. In the former SFRJ system, the judiciary ceded much control to the police to determine guilt in the field of criminal justice investigation, thus reducing elements of their authority in the legal process. Furthermore, Communist Party officials often interfered in the justice system. This interference has continued and even increased under the multi-party system. Two separate legal systems in BiH exist, with only ceremonial and appeals institutions and functions at the State level, in spite of the BiH Constitution which allows for the formation of more State court institutions. Within the Federation, loopholes in the legislation on the Supreme Court allow Croat-majority cantons to refuse to recognise the authority and the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, thus containing all court functions within the jurisdiction of that Canton. Weak roles for Public Prosecutors, plus anomalies in the legislation which make it hard for strong, Federation-level judges to try cross-cantonal crimes, leave highly autonomous Cantonal Courts open to political influence from ruling parties.

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PREVENTING MINORITY RETURN IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear (ICG Report N° 73)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper examines the motives driving the attitude of Bosnian authorities, ranging from simple racism to the genuine need to protect displaced people already occupying the property of potential returnees. It then looks at the factors underlying the decision of the individual prospective returnee whether to go back or not. It goes on to examine the record in several locations in Bosnia and suggests which factors have been at work in these cases. The report concludes that many of the arguments used by Bosnian authorities to obstruct return appear reasonable to the authorities themselves but may conceal less reasonable arguments which are actually more important. It would be better to remove these ‘justifiable’ reasons from the argument altogether. Against this background the report examines the policy responses available to the international community, and advocates an approach based on treating return not as a separate problem but as an aspect of the more general question of rule of law throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. The report suggests that, without sacrificing successful elements of the existing policy, this might change the terms of the debate, making opposition to return much more difficult to defend with reasonable-looking arguments, since rule of law is an ideal endorsed (in public) by all forces in BiH, and accepted as a necessary condition of entry into the Western family of nations and, in due course, the European Union

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IS DAYTON FAILING? Bosnia Four Years After The Peace Agreement (ICG Balkans Report N°80)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers. A traditional peace treaty consists of a cease-fire and arms reduction and boundary demarcation agreements. Dayton went far beyond these goals to create a state, comprised of two multi-ethnic entities. Dayton's aim was to not only stop the fighting, but to reverse ethnic cleansing and provide a blueprint for a new, unified country.

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STARTING FROM SCRATCH IN KOSOVO: The Honeymoon Is Over (ICG Balkans Report N° 83)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In this paper, the International Crisis Group (ICG) examines the performance of the international community in five key areas: security, the provision of basic services, civil registration and documentation, elections, and justice and the rule of law. The paper recommends ways to improve that performance, including: more robust enforcement by NATO’s Kosovo Force of its protection mandate and the accelerated deployment of adequately trained international and local police; the acceleration as well of donor follow-through, the provision of basic services, civil registration, the creation of identity documents, voters’ lists, and applicable criminal and civil legal codes; and a reexamination by the aid community of how best to achieve its desirable goals and outcomes in Kosovo.

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RULE OF LAW IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy (ICG Balkans Report N° 84)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The unsatisfactory functioning of municipal and cantonal administrations has a negative effect on both the legal system and the rule of law, and drastically affects the administration's main role -– the implementation of laws and regulations. Many laws go partially or entirely un-enforced. This report makes specific recommendations to strengthen the functioning of public administration. By and large these build on already-existing civil service procedures on the books, both in Republika Srpska and the Federation. These include: enforcing existing civil service laws, enforcing existing hiring procedures, increasing the degree of governmental "userfriendliness," increasing public access to records and documents, de-linking the public administration financing from political party control, and strengthening the municipal oversight system under existing JSAP authorisation.

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ALBANIANS in SERBIAN PRISONS. Ksosovo’s unfinished Business. (ICG Balkans Report N° 85)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While the international community does not itself have the capacity to free these prisoners, it must find ways to exert maximum pressure on Milošević to order their release. Thousands of Albanian lives are at stake: reports from recently released prisoners and from family members make clear that the prisoners' conditions in the Serbian facilities are appalling, their health has been severely compromised, they are routinely subjected to mistreatment and torture, and their trials are travesties. In addition, many prisoners’ families have been effectively ransomed by Serbian lawyers, who have promised to secure the release of prisoners for sums ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 DM. The emotional and material strain on prisoners' families contributes to Kosovo's continuing unrest and to the immense frustration Kosovars feel toward the international agencies which, in part out of a dearth of options to pursue, have not made a top priority of locating the prisoners or advocating on their behalf. // In this paper ICG attempts to clarify the somewhat complex situation with regard to the Albanian prisoners, to make available first-hand information about Serbian prison conditions gathered in interviews with ex-prisoners and prisoners' family members, to elucidate the pertinent legal issues, and to propose a series of measures that governments and non-government organisations might take toward identifying the prisoners and securing their release.

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DENIED JUSTICE: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze (ICG Balkans Report N° 86)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice. This report scrutinises six individual cases of ethnic and political discrimination. Recommendations are presented to counteract the violations committed by judges and prosecutors in these cases and to ensure that such violations are prevented in the future, through the strengthening of the concept of rule of law and of judicial and prosecutorial independence. Data on the cases contained herein was provided by ICG partner organisations based throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. All are Bosnian NGOs providing, inter alia, free legal aid to Bosnian citizens.

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REUNIFYING MOSTAR: Opportunities for Progress (ICG Balkans Report N° 90)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.

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BOSNIA'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 2000: Winners and Losers (ICG Balkans Report N° 91)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia’s 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more free and fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic’s Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages. In Bosniak areas support shifted from the ruling Party of Democratic Action (SDA) to Haris Silajdzic's Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) and Zlatko Lagumdzija's moderate Social Democratic Party (SDP). As a result, Silajdzic positioned himself as king-maker in numerous Bosniak majority municipalities, and as heir apparent to the ageing Alija Izetbegovic among the Bosniak electorate.

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MONTENEGRO’S SOCIALIST PEOPLE’S PARTY: A loyal Opposition? (ICG Balkans Report N° 92)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic’s exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia’s closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade’s controlling influence. The resulting political tensions have reshaped Montenegro’s political landscape. The Socialist People’s Party (SNP), which enjoys the support of about one-third of the Montenegrin public, was formed as the result of a split within Montenegro’s ruling party, the Party of Democratic Socialists (DPS). The SNP is a party increasingly on the defensive, caught between the initiatives of Montenegrin President Djukanovic to define pro -Western, democratising and reformist policies; and the intimidation tactics of federal President Milosevic who seeks to bring Montenegro to heel and thus salvage the Federation.

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BOSNIA'S REFUGEE LOGJAM BREAKS: Is the International Community ready? (ICG Balkans Report N° 95)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the first four months of 2000, the number of minority refugees returning to their pre-war homes without targeted assistance from the international community has increased nearly four-fold over 1999 levels, to 12,579. The reasons for the increase in returns include refugee impatience, a change in the psychology of the majority and minority populations, Bosnian government policies, and increased international community willingness to use the powers vested in the Office of the High Representative to remove obstructionist officials and implement property laws.

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ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO: Moving toward Democracy? (ICG Balkans Report N0 97)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the fall of 2000, for the first time in their history, the people of Kosovo are being promised the opportunity to participate in democratic, internationally supervised local elections. The elections offer the people of Kosovo the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to democracy. They also present the international mission1 in Kosovo with a test of its resolve to overcome the political and practical problems associated with holding elections in a territory still suffering from the physical and the political scars of war.

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KOSOVO REPORT CARD (ICG Balkans Report N° 100)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Impatience among Kosovo's majority Albanian population is growing with the international mission's slowness in putting in place some of the basic structures of normal life - 15 months after the end of the war the judicial system is still getting started and Pristina suffers prolonged daily power outages. The UN police, although nearing its level of authorised deployments, has yet to deal effectively with the climate of lawlessness and disrespect for public authority. Albanians have seized with both hands the opportunities for creating a flourishing small business economy - thanks in part to the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) chief Bernard Kouchner's decision to introduce the DM as the Kosovo's currency - but the international community has yet to begin the process of privatisation and market reform that is critically necessary to restart the Kosovo economy and to channel investment into legitimate economic activity and away from the quasi-legal grey economy.

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YUGOSLAVIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Serbian People’s Moment of Truth (ICG Balkans Report N°102)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

At the time of ICG’s last writing, opinion polls were showing that 50 per cent of the electorate was undecided as to its choice for the Yugoslav presidency.4 We reported that the situation was extremely volatile and could change virtually overnight, and this is precisely what has happened. For the first time since Milosevic came to power in 1989,5 a candidate put forward by a largely unified opposition has developed a large popular following and opened a wide lead in opinion polls.6 Despite a regime crackdown and an aggressive anti-opposition propaganda campaign, Serbia’s sundry opposition forces have at last been galvanised and are optimistic about winning a majority of votes genuinely cast.

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