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№141: Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author(s): Victoria Bucătaru,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.

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№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly aproper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance inDonbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assumethat military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed torepel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in adisadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and socialturmoil in Ukraine. To minimise the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S.should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and upholdthe Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the restof Ukraine.

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№139: Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance insupport of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Althoughmost of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to beset in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improvecoordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), whilethe Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reforms as a matterof urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focuson the most urgent needs.

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№124: A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The economic crisis led the eurozone to become a more deeply integrated area. The redesign of its institutional architecture significantly changes the perception of the costs and benefits of the membership of the zone. In this regard, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) are reassessing the effects of eurozone accession, by reviewing the set of arguments for and against further integration. The overall result of this review is still in favour of further integration, but successful accession requires comprehensive preparations from the candidates.

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№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author(s): John Todd / Language(s): English

The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

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№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created AfghanNational Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise astill volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, mayprove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA)are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA hasreached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by theANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receivea level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, theunstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence ofmilitias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may resultin the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by theAfghan population.

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№121: Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Although Central Asian states are vulnerable to the activities of radical Islamic organisations due to theweaknesses of their political and social systems—marked by authoritarianism, corruption, nepotism,and ethnic and religious tension, as well as their poor economic circumstances—interest in ISIS amongtheir citizens remains low. These states so far also have not become an area of interest for ISIS,although that may change. When some people in these countries do leave for Syria and Iraq, theirdecision is not rooted just in poverty but also in social exclusion and poor religious education. At thesame time, citizens of far more affluent and often far less authoritarian European and Middle Easterncountries travel in higher numbers to Syria to join ISIS. Nonetheless, a potential increase in thepopularity of radical Islamist factions will not only be a problem for the five countries of the region,where the authorities will try to use the phenomenon to strengthen their special services and raisefunds for border protection, but also for Russia, especially since people from Central Asia are mainlyrecruited to ISIS on Russian territory and traverse it to reach the battlefields. Russia, therefore, willcontinue to support its neighbours in the fight against such organisations by helping to strengthenborder control, support for local special services and by CSTO Rapid Reaction Forces. The EuropeanUnion and the United States should offer not only intelligence support and assistance in protectingthese borders against this threat but also economic programmes and development assistance that canbe used to decrease the factors that may contribute to the radicalisation of those living in Central Asia.

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№119: Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

Author(s): Teona Turashvili,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

With the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga set for 21–22 May, Georgia is seen as one of the mostadvanced EaP members in terms of adoption of European standards. The country is quite successful interms of building a democratic and transparent state, which is both rare and sets an importantprecedent in the post-Soviet region. Still, such positive changes in Georgia are not irreversible, andmany reforms are only at the initial stage. The EU should offer more support, and encourage thegovernment in Tbilisi in reforming state institutions. Priority should be given to the justice sector, publicadministration, and local government in order to secure democratic governance and a fair politicalenvironment for further transformation. Moreover, the EU should also increase support for Georgia’scivil society, which is the most efficient “whistle-blower” in the event of bad practices such ascorruption, cronyism or use of prosecutors and the judiciary against political opponents.

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№118: Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The revolution in Ukraine has shown that the difficult history of Central and Eastern Europe ended neither with the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor with the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Moreover, Russia’s violent reaction in the form annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas has set in motion a number of political processes, which have not only shaken international relations in Central and Eastern Europe, but have also shown the countries in the region that stability in this part of Europe is not a given. Thus, these countries, the vast majority of which are members of the European Union and NATO, face a serious problem regarding the further evolution of relations with Russia, not only in the political or economic dimension, but also in the military sphere.

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№117: How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

Author(s): Justyna Prus,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment supportfor the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars andUkrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatarscommemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to massdeaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority atthe peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet(including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Sovietideology.

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№115: Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

Author(s): Anna Pochylska,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.

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№114: Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): English

Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. Themanipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontationalattitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. Tocounter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative basedon truth and common values.

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№112: Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway

Author(s): Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Between 2004 and 2014, the number of Poles in Norway grew tenfold. Poles have become the biggestminority in Norway, bringing economic benefits for both countries but also social challenges. Whereasthe effects of migration for sending and receiving countries differ, there are many areas in whichcooperation could bring mutual benefits. Such cooperation based on the respect of the fundamentalfreedom of EU citizens’ free access to the labour market should lead to better integration of migrants.However, the biggest challenge in this respect lies in embracing the diversity of flows occurring withinthe free movement framework, ranging from short term stays to permanent settlements.

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№057: Towards New Political and Economic Agreements with Japan: Bringing New Dynamism into the Strategic Partnership between the EU and Japan

Author(s): Radosław Tyszkiewicz / Language(s): English

The forthcoming EU–Japan summit heralds a new era in the relations between these two major economic powers. Both players are focused on repairing their economies and putting growth back on track. To make this happen they are ready to negotiate legally binding agreements, which would help expand their cooperation. The negotiators will have to resolve a number of contentious issues, but the agreed outcome may result in considerable benefits for both the EU and Japan.

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Germany’s Migration Policy Correction: Distancing from Extreme Proposals

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The mass-migration crisis that enveloped Germany in 2015 has had consequences for ruling party CDU, mainly costing it support. It also increased the popularity of extreme right-wing party Alternative for Germany, which demands a drastic tightening of the country’s immigration policy. Instead of the extreme measures, Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided on a revised approach that combines tightening immigration laws, greater protection and monitoring of borders, and increasing deportations of people refused legal protection in Germany. Merkel’s policy has brought positive results, but the price for it is seen in cracks in the ruling coalition and even within her own party.

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Romanians Protest Changes in Anti-Corruption Law

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The largest protests in Romania since 1989 have been caused by the interpretation of two emergency government ordinances as an attempt to paralyse the fight against corruption, which has been effective for a few years now. Although the government withdrew the projects, the demonstrations have continued, with protesters seeing it as just a temporary concession. They fear the ruling parties, which have politicians threatened with criminal trials, will undertake a new attempt to change the country’s anti-corruption laws. The credibility of Romania as an international partner could be undermined by a deterioration of its image in this respect and that also would have negative repercussions for Poland.

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Transport and Mobility: A New Agenda for the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The Eastern Partnership has exploited its potential, so a new offer for upgrades in transport and mobility is required for Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. In their relations with the EU, those policy areas are characterized by a lack of uniform standards and slow advancement of cooperation on projects. To improve this situation, the EU might consider bilateral agreements with Association Agreement countries aimed at full integration with its transport market, funding more infrastructure projects, increasing opportunities for legal work in the Union for temporary migrants and ensuring better absorption in education, research and culture programmes.

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FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.

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Poland’s Campaign for a Non-Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Poland is bidding against Bulgaria for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in the 2018 to 2019 term. This position would allow Poland to influence the discussion on global security and potential risks as well as being an opportunity to promote Poland on the global scene. To win the non-permanent seat, Poland should intensify the campaign, build a cohesive image for international partners and prepare for more than one round of voting.

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The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The pressure caused by the refugee crisis in Germany has not skipped past the minimum wage. Abolition of the government’s flagship social project, however, is unlikely; rather to be expected are exceptions for asylum seekers and additional vocational activation programs. German ideas in this area have a chance to become benchmarks for EU members struggling with similar issues, as well as starting points for “enhanced cooperation” on policies of integration of refugees.

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