№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: Ukraine; security; Eastern Europe; Russia; conflicts
Summary/Abstract: For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly aproper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance inDonbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assumethat military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed torepel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in adisadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and socialturmoil in Ukraine. To minimise the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S.should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and upholdthe Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the restof Ukraine.
Series: PISM Policy Papers
- Page Count: 8
- Publication Year: 2015
- Language: English
- Content File-PDF