We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

№153: How Can NATO Contribute to Ukraine and Georgia’s Border Security?

Author(s): Jeffrey Rathke,Daniel Szeligowski,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Conflicts beyond NATO’s borders, such as the Russian occupation of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia and aggression in Ukraine, pose a threat to the security of NATO’s eastern flank states. Therefore, NATO’s ability to provide security to its members depends on the Alliance cooperating closely with its neighbours. In this respect, Ukraine and Georgia, both of which share borders with NATO members, are of special importance. NATO should build on the experience of its own members, and join ranks with the European Union in order to further support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia. Enhanced border security should be a key element of such partnerships.

More...

№152: NATO in Libya: A Long-term Plan for Stability

Author(s): Paolo Quercia,Patrycja Sasnal,Julianne Smith,Kurt Volker / Language(s): English

Never was there a better time for NATO’s involvement in Libya than now. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the only available option for a more stable future of the country. It has already shown it can deliver by defeating the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte, but without urgent support from the international community it may not be able to show more progress in providing security, reform and services to the Libyan people. Once it receives a request from the GNA, NATO can and should assist in SSR, border control and countering people-smuggling as there is no better placed actor to help Libya in this regard.

More...

№151: EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.

More...

№150: Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński,Carolina Salgado / Language(s): English

The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.

More...

№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek / Language(s): English

Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defence and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.

More...

№148: Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.

More...

№147: Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

At the beginning of 2016, almost 13 years after the Thessaloniki declaration to integrate the Western Balkans into the European Union, Brussels is left with Croatia as a Member State, Montenegro half way, at best, to becoming one, Serbia with first negotiation chapters just opened, and half of the region with no clear prospect of membership. But the wait-and-see approach that the EU had been employing for a number of years towards the enlargement policy in the Balkans1has become even riskier in times of new international challenges. Among them, the ever-growing tensions between the West and Russia should, in particular, serve as motivation for the Union to look at enlargement in the Balkans from a geopolitical angle. Even if the Member States have in recent years shown less enthusiasm towards further rounds of enlargement, this should not discourage the EU institutions from undertaking an active role to revive the European integration process in the Balkans.

More...

№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.

More...

№137: EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.

More...

№131: The EU’s New Climate Target: Contribution to a Successful Deal in Paris

Author(s): Susanne Dröge,Thomas Spencer,Alexandra Deprez,Liz Gallagher,Artur Gradziuk,Andrei Marcu,Sebastian Oberthür / Language(s): English

In the run up to the Paris climate negotiations, the multilateral community has decided that all countriesshould submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The INDCs represent eachcountry’s contribution to the collective effort against climate change....

More...

№129: The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found anally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe,speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthennational parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes orare merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanismsof inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would playvery well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it alsorequires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to bethe missing link.

More...

№128: Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Turkey’s decision to open Incirlik airbase to the anti-IS coalition could offer a significant advantage inthe fight against the Islamic State, including cutting it off from outside supplies, and changing theregional parameters. However, statements from the U.S. and Turkey still contradict each other, andtheir divergent priorities could hamper their operational capacity. Turkey’s contribution to the coalitionmay potentially reduce cooperation between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) inthe anti-IS zone. In addition, the absence of a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK) and the domestic polarisation provide a permissible environment for potential provocationsthat may escalate the violence in Turkey, potentially diminishing its contribution. The U.S. and Turkeystill have to overcome their differences in order to become effective coalition partners.

More...

№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Both Norway and Poland have engaged in regional security and defence cooperation projects:NORDEFCO and the Visegrad Group (V4), respectively. Such initiatives are seen as a promisingmethod for reinforcing military capabilities in a time of deep cuts in defence budgets among the EUMember States. The record of NORDEFCO and the V4 remains, though, rather modest, particularlywhen compared to the ambitious declarations made at their beginnings. Both cooperation formatshave proved effective with regards to less-complicated projects, such as those involving militaryeducation, training or logistics. However, common procurement and real integration in some capabilityareas has turned out to be too difficult. Yet, these failures have helped to identify factors that maymake success more likely, and this result is shared by both NORDEFCO and the V4, despite thestructural differences between these two mechanisms of security governance.

More...

№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

More...

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: What Chancellor Merkel Should Tell Bosnia's Politicians and People (II)

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener / Language(s): English

Bosnia Daily: July 9, 2015 – What Chancellor Merkel Should Tell Bosnia's Politicians and People (II)

More...

0.00 €

(Un)realistic neutrality. Attempts to redefine Belarus’ foreign policy

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, together with the increased tension in relations between Russia and the West, have led the Belarusian authorities to attempt to redefine their country’s foreign policy by stressing neutrality towards the two sides in the conflict. As a result, over the last year or so Belarus has clearly adopted a non-committal stance. Minsk is trying to play the part of a neutral mediator in the hope that this will safeguard it in the event of escalation of tensions between Russia and the West, which is seen as the greatest threat to the country’s security at the present time. Thus Minsk is returning to the notion, discussed in the early 1990s, of Belarus striving for neutrality. Officially, the goal of neutrality is still stated in the Belarusian Constitution. However there are serious limitations to the effectiveness of this new strategy, due to Minsk’s close military alliance with Moscow, and therefore Belarus will not be entirely credible on the international stage as a country that wishes to remain neutral.

More...

Crisis in Turkmenistan. A test for China’s policy in the region

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

The currency crisis, caused by the collapse in gas prices, has turned into the most serious social and political crisis in the history of Turkmenistan. The government in Ashgabat has passed the burden of the economic problems onto the population, suspending the convertibility of the manat and dismantling the extensive social security system. The drastic reduction in the standard of living of Turkmenistan’s population has undermined the stability of the regime. The depletion of Turkmenistan’s foreign exchange reserves could bring an end to the monumental state investment programme which – together with the social security system – is the main source of the regime’s legitimacy. The current dynamics of the crisis are fully dependent on China, the sole recipient of Turkmenistan’s gas (receiving more than 90% of total gas exports) and Ashgabat’s main creditor. The terms of the Chinese-Turkmen contracts (apparently linking gas prices with oil prices) is leading to a drain of Turkmen resources and reducing the inflow of foreign currency. China may be faced with the need to stabilise the economy of Turkmenistan. In the absence of any rescue actions, there is a considerable risk of the collapse of the Turkmen state. However, any greater involvement by China could mean a violation of the Chinese-Russian modus vivendi in the region. Moscow could take advantage of the crisis to rebuild its influence in Ashgabat, and include Turkmenistan within its own political integration projects within the region, resuming gas cooperation and offering military assistance to stabilise the regime.

More...

The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia – circuses instead of bread?

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

The 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia has become the most expensive World Cup in history, with its cost standing at more than US$ 13 billion. Russia gained new sports, transport and tourist infrastructure, and nearly 3 million foreign tourists came to the country to attend the matches. However, the investments and revenues connected with the tournament will have a minor impact on Russia’s GDP growth rate; at best they may contribute to an acceleration in the development of those regions (particularly the less affluent ones) that hosted the World Cup events. Predictably, the main beneficiary from the tournament’s organisation was President Putin’s business environment : companies controlled by Putin’s cronies won the main tenders for the construction of sports and transportation facilities.

More...

0.00 €

Odwilż w Uzbekistanie. Reformy prezydenta Mirzijojewa

Author(s): Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): Polish

It has been almost two years since the death of the long-serving leader of Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov, and since Shavkat Mirziyoyev took up power (September 2016). The change has had spectacular results, including signs of liberalisation of the previous, extremely authoritarian system of rule, and economic reform, for instance with regard to stimulating growth of small-scale business, and in fact activation of Uzbekistan on the international stage and normalisation of relations with neighbours. Meanwhile, certainly the most important process under way in Uzbekistan is that of consolidation of power by the new president, and a key element of this is dismantling the might enjoyed to date by the National Security Service. The curbing of the position of the National Security Service, which has been successful so far, entails internal restructuring of the state apparatus. The limited liberalisation and opening up to the world are mainly a result of this process.Mirziyoyev has created a new dynamic both internally and in the region. The effects will only become clear in the long term. The outcome of this new situation is uncertain; consolidation of the new president’s power and the ensuing reforms are accompanied by constantly recurring crises which were frozen during Karimov’s rule. There are also external threats – a possibility of return to custodianship of Russia, a country which is fortifying its position, China’s increasing economic dominance, and growing strength of radicals among the Uzbek minority in northern Afghanistan. The emerging processes are therefore proceeding fast, and thus it is hard to determine whether the new Uzbekistan under President Mirziyoyev will prove to be a stable country in which the liberal reforms will continue.

More...

0.00 €

Cracks in the marble. Russians’ trust in Putin on the decline

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

In 2018, a distinct downward trend began to emerge in public support for the Russian authorities – the president, government, and other political institutions. All opinion poll companies have recorded this decline, which applies not only to the authorities’ approval ratings, but also to their policies, including foreign policy, which has traditionally been an area in which the Kremlin has garnered popularity. The greatest losses have been seen in the ratings for Vladimir Putin, whose ratings have returned to the level recorded prior to the annexation of Crimea. For the first time since he has been in power, Putin has fallen behind the army, and in some cases the orthodox church as well, in the institutional opinion polls. || The falling support for the president and his policies is confirmation that “geopolitical successes” such as the annexation of Crimea are no longer a factor ensuring that the public stands behind the Kremlin. As the impression made by the geopolitical successes wears off, Russians are becoming more and more focused on domestic problems, above all the poverty resulting from a long-term decrease in real income. The event that triggered discontent and led to street protests was decisions made by the authorities that have been seen as unjust (such as raising the age of retirement). || Even though, seen objectively, the president’s ratings remain high, at approximately 60%, this downward trend, being a decrease of between ten and twenty percentage points, is a sign, under the Russian system, that the Kremlin’s legitimacy is fading. This system is largely based on a high level of support for Putin, while the other political institutions take a back seat. This change in the public mood is forcing the Kremlin to seek a new strategy, and at least partly concede to public demands. However, with little chance of the public’s expectations being met, it is unlikely that the decline in support for the authorities can be halted. Thus, the increasing deficiency in the Kremlin’s legitimacy means that the Kremlin is facing a difficult decision as to the policy to be followed from now on.

More...