Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne Japonii w kontekście stosunków z państwami Zatoki Perskiej w latach 2007−2016

Author(s): Ewa Trojnar / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2017

Japan, the third largest economy in the world in terms of GDP, estimated at $4.9 trillion in 2016, the fourth largest exporter and importer with turnover of more than $ 1.2 trillion in 2016, has enormous energy needs and it lacks natural resources. Compete with very low energy self-suffi ciency i.e. 7.7% in 2015, Japan remains the fourth largest importer of energy raw materials in the world, for example, in 2016, it bought 6.4% of world traded oil. In the vast majority the Japanese import of fuels comes from the Middle East − about 80% of crude oil and 25% of natural gas. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), i.e.: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and United Arab Emirates, in 2016 were responsible for 24.4% of world crude oil production, with reserves of nearly 29.1% and 11.8% of global natural gas production and 22.1% reserves. Maintaining good relations with such key players on energy markets shapes Japan’s energy security. Accordingly, this article aims at identifying determinants of Japan’s energy security in the context of relations with the GCC states in the years 2007−2016. It also analyzes the change of Japan’s relations with the GCC states as a consequence of the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in March 2011 as well as an impact of global phenomena, such as changes in oil prices on Japan’s energy security. In this context, cooperation between Japan and with the GCC countries has gained new signifi cance. Besides that, so far, partners have failed to fi nalize negotiations on the creation of a free trade area.

Rada Współpracy Państw Zatoki – jaka przyszłość po Arabskiej Wiośnie?

Author(s): Jakub Sławek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2014

The aim of this paper is to widely discuss the political situation of the Gulf Cooperation Council in the aftermath of the Arab Spring and to present the complexity of the relations between the member states of the Council and to describe their regional relationships especially regarding the aspect of rivalry and difficult neighborhood with Iran and cooperation with the United States. A larger part of the article is dedicated to the phenomena of the fundaments of unity between the Gulf states but also the sources of disharmony and disunity that prevent the further deepening and strengthening of intra-Gulf relations which should materialize in the formation of a Gulf Union. The article aspires also to give a forecast of possible scenarios of political and economic development in the GCC region upon the basic economic and social data. This forecast is presented in relation with the challenges that this region is facing.

Wpływ strategii Unii Europejskiej na kształtowanie systemu bezpieczeństwa energetycznego i ochrony środowiska/klimatu Polski w XXI wieku

Author(s): Anna Bałamut / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2018

This article aims to present the EU strategy for energy security, environmental and climate protection and its impact on Poland. So far, Poland has not developed a strategy for the country’s energy security longer than 2030. This raises concerns about the stability of the country in the long term. State security should be clearly specified, especially since it is not a permanent concept, but a process conditioned by a number of factors that shape it. It requires many years of efforts from all participants of the energy market, each of the entities that somehow operated or operates in this market. The whole of the study was divided into an introduction, two chapters: the EU strategy of energy security and environmental and climate protection, as well as its impact in these areas in Poland, character and ending rich in the author’s own conclusions.

Fińska koncepcja zrównoważonego rozwoju w świetle Agendy 2030. Wybrane aspekty

Author(s): Joanna Grzela / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2018

In September 2015 in New York, member states of the United Nations adopted the document „Transforming our world: Agenda for Sustainable Development – 2030”, containing 17 goals for sustainable development. The Agenda sets common goals for all UN member states. Finland wants to become a leader in implementing Agenda 2030, referring to a long tradition of sustainable development. The state has created a model that arouses general interest. Its main distinguishing feature is society’s commitment to sustainable development. This procedure provides organizations and active citizens with the opportunity to independently strive to achieve the goals of sustainable development. It is a practical and rare tool for serving implementation of the Agenda 2030 at the national level.

Chiny: potencjał (gospodarczy, polityczny i militarny) jako instrument kształtowania nowego układu międzynarodowego

Author(s): Katarzyna Żukrowska / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2018

Chinese economy went through several stages of reform and changes, which enabled economic, political and military advancement of this country. The reforms are dated back to 1979, when first changes in China were proceeded. Reforms started in agriculture sector improving food supply in the country. All this means that period needed to obtain current position by China in the world took nearly half a century. Article presents the gradual evolution of politics and its impact on the economy what was followed by a buildup of political and military potential gaining weight first in the region and after also on global scale. Prognoses of possible changes are presented here based on the assumption that current trends are continued also in the future, and they will embrace regional and global players. It is stressed that an import ant role of the Chinese success story can be ascribed to „opening of the economy” what stimulated inflows of technology, trade as well as direct foreign investments. Some space is given to show the alliance layout and its evolution. The picture is complemented by presentation of instruments which were used in foreign policy. Current tensions are also discussed what is illustrated by the current „trade wars” with the USA. The summing up of the article is presented in a form of possible scenarios which can be applied in the future Chinese policy.

Foresight w logistyce bezpieczeństwa

Author(s): Bogumił Stęplewski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2013

The article attempts to present the possibilities of adapting the foresight methodology to the needs of a long-term forecasting of the directions in which will develop the comparatively new science which is „the security logistics”. Increasing intensity of crisis events, associated with the forces of nature and technological activity of man, causes the need for development of the modern theoretical solutions and implementing regulations, which logistically secure the management of the rescue operations. The development of the security logistics as a science, is and will be closely related to the progress of technologies, and advancement of the economic and social relations. Therefore, the challenge lies in the adjusting of the theoretical thinking of the young science to the forecasting of events on the long-term basis, for the broadly understood area of security. Currently, the intensity of changes in the above-mentioned fields outdistanced the theoretical and practical rules for functioning of the security logistics. Foresight could meet that needs, as – with its rich methodological background and experience acquired through workshops, it allows for forecasting and creating the guidelines for future development of many fields of scientific and social research in perspective of several decades.

Profesjonalne siły zbrojne w społeczeństwie XXI wieku

Author(s): Jan Rajchel,Adam Rurak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2013

Studying the environment of security in the first decades of XXI century, this article discusses phenomena which may lead to rising threats and socio-military conflicts in the contemporary world. The paper presents the character and the course of future military conflicts. It discusses the correlation and impact of the development in weaponry systems as well as in military technique on the capability and quality of armed forces. In accordance with civil and military scientists, the authors predict that by 2030 changes will have occurred in a few fields, the most significant of which are: wireless computer networks, miniaturizing and robotizing, as well as a dynamic development of biological sciences. This material discusses new abilities of armed forces. It presents competences and legal regulations concerning the functioning of the army both in the national and international arena. It has been shown how a brilliant thought, effective rules of tactic, operational as well as strategic use of armed forces influence the battlefield results. It has also been proven how implementing new technologies, devices and equipment leads to a decrease in the number of armed forces together with an increase in their potential. Finally, the paper discusses the required, according to the authors, skills of the RP Armed Forces in 2030.

Palestyńskie przedwiośnie

Author(s): Michał Z. Buśko / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2013

Between August 2012 and March 2013 cities of the West Bank witnessed demonstrations that seemed to be a prelude to "Palestinian Spring". Triggered by an economic crisis the demonstrations have quickly developed into a protest calling for a drastic political change including a withdrawal from Israeli-Palestinian cooperation and disbandment of Palestinian National Authority (PNA). The protest however turned out to be a fiasco. Not only demonstrators failed to make a desired difference but also have given Israel an opportunity to reassure its upper-hand and strengthen its superiority. The purpose of this paper is to present the most important socio-political and legal determinants that defused Palestinian protest and secured Israeli conditioned equilibrium of Israeli – Palestinian relationships as well as to rethink the issue with a relation to renewed negotiations. The first part of the study tackles the dynamics of the protest, its context and the reaction of the parties. The study deals with the factors that contained an escalation of turmoil, identifies tools of suppression used by Israel and, by putting an emphasis on economical dependence of Palestinians, analyzes conditions of political status quo preservation. Having considered the above dynamics the paper argues that both, the very survival of Palestinian National Authority and a continuity of Israeli-Palestinian cooperation depend on Israeli ability to single-handed maintenance of this balance, more precisely, ability to impose arbitrary decisions. The paper considers above condition to be the main obstacle to rank-and-file non-governmental struggle for the Palestinian independence. The second part of the study relates previously identified phenomena to a formula and a matter of the renewed negotiations as well as the unilateral policy of PNA. In conclusion, the paper also gives a notion for possible future developments.

Państwo jako interesariusz przedsiębiorstwa odpowiedzialnego społecznie

Author(s): Andrzej Chodyński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2011

Polityka imigracyjna i azylowa Unii Europejskiej - zarys historyczny i prognozy rozwoju na początku XXI wieku

Author(s): Aleksandra Sabik / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2006

Organizacja Narodów Zjednoczonych w zmieniającym się świecie. Konieczność reformy i podjęcia nowych wyzwań

Author(s): Janusz Symonides / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2005

Rola ONZ w utrzymaniu pokoju i bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego na początku XXI wieku - ocena i oczekiwania

Author(s): Wojciech Stankiewicz / Language(s): Polish Issue: 3/2005

Nadzieje i porażki Akcji Afirmatywnej

Author(s): Jarosław Rokicki / Language(s): Polish Issue: 2/2004

Przywództwo polityczne w społeczeństwie informacyjnym. Kryzys czy ewolucja modelu?

Author(s): Paulina Sekuła / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2008

Ochrana životního prostředí a správní řád

Author(s): Ivana Průchová / Language(s): Czech Issue: 2/1996

The purpose of this contribution has been to analyse some problems regarding the application of the legal order (of Act No. 71/1967 Col I., on Administrative Procedures) during proceed of decision-taking by the agencies of the state admi­nistration in the sector of environmental protection. The valid legal regulations in this respect are dispersed into the legal regulations of a variety of branches, Act 17/1992 Col I. On Environmental Protection does not contain the general rules concerned with decision-taking in the sector of environmental protection. Within the framework of considerations of lege ferenda it is of great advantage to reason about gradually unifying the legal regulations, with a tendency of putting throu­ gh the so-called integrated decision-taking in questions related to environmental protection, where the administrative procedure would be limited to issuing the final decision only (permitting or Prohibiting certain activities). On the contrary, on expressing certain views, s tandpoints opinions or issuing approvals, preceding the final decision both in rem and also chronologically, there would be no need to proceed according to the legal regulations.

Debata „Rola służb specjalnych we współczesnej Polsce”

Author(s): Leszek Wojcieszak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 30/2024

Assessing cultural ecosystem service potential for green infrastructure planning in a peri-urban landscape: An expert-based matrix approach

Author(s): Vita Žlender / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2024

With the encroachment of urban areas into peri-urban landscapes, the requirement for effective green infrastructure (GI) planning has become increasingly important for maintaining ecological integrity and human wellbeing. An expert-based matrix approach is proposed as a method for evaluating the potential of cultural ecosystem services (CES) in making informed GI planning decisions in a peri-urban landscape. Experts from various disciplines and areas of work were consulted to systematically evaluate various types of land-use and land-cover classes, as well as protection regimes characteristic of a peri-urban landscape across the CES categories. In addition to CES provision potential, experts also evaluated the possible potential to cause cultural ecosystem disservices. These scores are aggregated to generate spatially explicit maps that highlight areas with high CES provision potential and those with the potential to cause disservices. This approach was then applied to three case study areas, demonstrating its effectiveness in identifying priority areas for GI planning and management interventions. The results highlight the importance of integrating CES considerations into GI planning processes to enhance landscape resilience, social wellbeing, and cultural heritage preservation in dynamic peri-urban environments. Using scoring, validation exercises, and spatially explicit presentation on case studies, the utility and applicability of the expert-based matrix approach as a valuable tool for sustainable GI planning on a landscape scale is demonstrated.

Optimized Ensemble Support Vector Regression Models for Predicting Stock Prices with Multiple Kernels

Author(s): Subba Reddy Thumu,Geethanjali Nellore / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2024

Stock forecasting is a complicated and daily challenge for investors because of the non-linearity of the market and the high volatility of financial assets such as stocks, bonds and other commodities. There is a need for a powerful and adaptive stock prediction model that handles complexities and provides accurate predictions. The support vector regression (SVR) model is one of the most prominent machine learning models for forecasting time series data. An ensemble hyperbolic tangent kernel SVR (HTK-SVR-BO) is proposed in this paper, combining Tanh and inverse Tanh kernels with Bayesian optimization. Combining the strengths of multiple kernels using the ensemble technique and then using optimization to identify the optimal values for each SVR model to enhance the ensemble model performance is possible. Our proposed model is compared with an ensemble SVR model (LPR-SVR-BO), which uses well-known SVR kernel types, including linear, polynomial and radial basis function (RBF). We apply the proposed models to Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock prices. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), R2 score (model accuracy) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are the regression metrics used to compare the effectiveness of each ensemble model. In our comparison, HTK-SVR-BO performs better in terms of regression metrics compared to LPR-SVR-BO and achieves results of 0.27424, 0.13392, 0.36595, 0.99997 and 5.2331 respectively. According to the analysis, the proposed model is more predictive and may generalize to previously unknown data more effectively, so it can be accurate when forecasting future stock prices.

Dynamic Context-Aware Recommender System for Home Automation Through Synergistic Unsupervised and Supervised Learning Algorithms

Author(s): Tahar Dilekh,Saber Benharzallah,Ayoub Mokeddem,Saoueb Kerdoudi / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2024

Home automation, supported by smart devices and the internet of things, works to enhance household control. However, the reliance on current systems with fixed rules poses challenges, which can be inflexible and anxiety-provoking for users who want control over their smart home devices, limit responsiveness to changing conditions and affect energy efficiency, comfort and security. To address this, the paper proposes a dynamic personalized recommender system that considers the user's current state and contextual preferences to suggest relevant automation services for smart home devices. The system uses an unsupervised algorithm to extract rules from past interactions and supervised algorithms to make recommendations based on those rules. The proposed context-aware recommender system for smart homes achieved a remarkable average accuracy of 86.99%, a recall of 76.06% and a precision of 82.67% on publicly available datasets, surpassing previous studies. It offers users an enhanced quality of life, energy efficiency and cost reduction, while providing service providers with increased engagement and valuable insights.

Zagrożenia środowiskowe w bezpieczeństwie transportu lotniczego

Author(s): Zbigniew Piskor / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2024

The article discusses the issue of environmental hazards as an important factor leading to threats in the safety of air transport. Its aim is to analyse the impact of such threats on the level of safety in air transport. In accordance with the adopted objective, the main research problem was formulated: How do environmental hazards affect the level of safety of air transport? In order to answer the above question, it was necessary to use research methods, including a critical analysis of legal acts and selected literature on the subject. The analysis of the indicated areas indicates that in order to improve the impact of air transport on the environment, it is necessary to consider the introduction of appropriate measures and adopt the set directions of change.