Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model

Author(s): Miklós Virag,Tamás Nyitrai / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2013

In our study we rely on a data mining procedure known as support vector machine (SVM) on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. The models constructed are then contrasted with the results of earlier bankruptcy models with the use of classification accuracy and the area under the ROC curve. In using the SVM technique, in addition to conventional kernel functions, we also examine the possibilities of applying the ANOVA kernel function and take a detailed look at data preparation tasks recommended in using the SVM method (handling of outliers). The results of the models assembled suggest that a significant improvement of classification accuracy can be achieved on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model when using the SVM method as opposed to neural networks.

Applications of Theories of Compelexity and Chaos to Gold Prices

Author(s): Hikmet Nazan Çağlar / Language(s): English Issue: 17/2018

Chaos theory is considered as a new subject in understanding non linear system’s dynamic behaviours. Chaos theorem is used in several fields such as mathematics, physics, chemistry as well as in finance and economics sector. Although, there is a enourmous demand for gold, gold prices are volatile because of different reasons. This volatility chould be reduced by chaos theory. Also, the aim is to show whether gold prices data shows any chaotic behavior or not.

Approaches to the Management and Policing of Food Safety: The Food Standard Agency’s Regulating Our Future

Author(s): Richard Bradford-Knox,Kevin Kane,Simon Neighbour / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2020

This paper forms part of an ongoing project studying various approaches to the management of hazards and risk in the food industry with implications for other areas of risk management where cooperation and collaboration between organisations are of a potential benefit. In this paper we give particular focus to the Food Standard Agency’s proposed Regulating Our Future that requires closer cooperation and collaboration between the public enforcement authorities and the industry organisations that police food hygiene and food safety management. The forming of a Primary Authority between Cornwall Council and Safe and Local Supplier Approval (SALSA) emerged as a potential means of contributing to this by improving trust between all parties involved, sharing of information, assessing risk, reducing inspection times and frequency of inspections from Primary Authority. Attention is given to the current relationship between the various organisations involved from the perspectives and viewpoints of Local Authority Enforcement Officers from Preston City Council, Cornwall Council and SALSA and other experienced food safety professionals. The research is qualitative and grounded, including a review of the extant literature and interviews with food safety and food standards professionals from the private and public enforcement sectors.

Approximate Method of Estimation of Exponential Trend Parameters for Forecasting Process Purposes

Author(s): Kamila Bednarz-Okrzyńska / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2018

The paper discusses the issue of estimation of exponential trend parameters in terms of its application in the forecast process. Due to the character of a random element, three models were considered: additive, multiplicative, and mixed. For estimating trend parameters, a log transformation method, least squares method, and approximate methods were applied. As a result of computer simulations, high sensitivity of the log transformation method with regard to the assumed random element model was noticed. This method yields the smallest value of ex post error for the multiplicative model but is burdened with a large error for the additive model, where the estimated parameter B takes large values (B > 0.24). In the paper, a new approximate method of estimation of exponential trend parameters is proposed. The method is compared with approximate formulas presented in the paper by Purczyński (2008).

Arab Spring Countries Two Years After the Revolution: Economic Aspects, Background, Consequences, Forecasts

Author(s): Adriana Łukaszewicz / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2013

Architects in the General Government: Activities, Reckoning, Memory

Author(s): Małgorzata Popiołek-Roßkamp / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2021

The paper analyses architects as a professional group in General Government (GG) during the Second World War. It showcases some of their design work, projects, employment, education, and other aspects of everyday life in an occupied country. The focus is on architects working in three cities: the former Polish capital of Warsaw, the GG’s new capital city of Cracow, and Zakopane, localized in the Tatra Mountains, which was intended to become a modern resort and sport center. The paper also mentions cases from Zamość and Radom. Most of the projects were realized by Polish architects employed by the German authorities. In Zakopane, Polish architects had a stronger position and more freedom in their work than in the other cities of GG. The article investigates the relationships between architecture and politics as well as the ideological impact of the architects’ work. Using unpublished archival sources, it evaluates the post-war requitals of the German architect Hubert Groß and a Polish colleague Stefan Żychoń. Neither of the two had to face a court after the war due to his activity as an architect during the occupation. Groß was accused of having been a member in different Nazi organizations, and Stefan Żychoń was suspended from the Association of Polish Architects for one year. For political reasons, both German and Polish architects seldom included war-related activities in their official curricula after 1945. In Poland they remain a taboo until today.

Architecture in Warsaw, 1939–1944

Author(s): Wojciech Wółkowski / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2021

This text attempts to present a general view of the architecture of occupied Warsaw between 1939 and 1944. Based on both existing publications and new primary source material from the collections of the Department of Polish Architecture at the Faculty of Architecture of the Warsaw University of Technology, the article discusses the design and construction activities of the German occupation administration (i.e., those officially operated and recognized by the Germans authorities of Warsaw), private investors, and individual designers working in secret.In this context, the projects the City Board commissioned are particularly interesting. These included the reconstruction of public buildings destroyed in September 1939 (theaters and the interior of the town hall) and urban plans for the transformation and reorganization of the center of Warsaw (e.g., the design of the north-south route). These projects went far into the postwar future. Strictly connected with the design activity was the documentation of the city’s monuments (especially those destroyed or damaged at the beginning of the war). The preparation of this documentation was supported and partially financed by the city authorities. After the war, these plans served—as their authors had intended—as the basis for reconstructing these buildings.

Are the European Commission’s forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?

Author(s): Jakub Rybacki / Language(s): English Issue: 54/2020

The academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.

ARIMA MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRICE OF GOLD: EUROPEAN APPROACH

Author(s): Ligita Gasparėnienė,Rita Remeikienė / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2020

Time series analysis has a long tradition in economics. The foundations of the current time series analysis, focusing on modelling of the development of one time series, were laid in the interwar period. In recent years, many new methods and approaches have emerged in the field of economic time series analysis. Also, the conditions for their practical application in our country have significantly improved in recent years, which is due to the relatively easy availability of a relatively wide range of types of quality software and the growing length of the analysed time series. In this research paper, we focused on the analysis of time series using the ARIMA model to predict the price of gold by the end of 2020. Those who did not believe that the gold price could strengthen significantly shortly before the outbreak of COVID-19 they are not enough to wonder. Its value returned to green numbers after the fall in the price of the commodity, which caused growing concerns after the outbreak of the world virus pandemic. It was the reason for the analysis of this particular commodity. The introduction contains the necessary information on the problem and basic knowledge of the theory of time series and their modelling, characterizes the Box - Jenkins methodology, and finally, the statistical software used. The method describes the procedure of data processing and the creation of the ARIMA model. The results section presents results and predictions in the last part of the discussion and conclusion; the results and interpretations of the results are summarized.

ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries

Author(s): Tadeusz Kufel / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2020

Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities. Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction. Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper. Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.

Around the Bloc: Albania Gets Set for Second-Ever Royal Wedding

Author(s): TOL TOL / Language(s): English Issue: 10/11/2016

Communists labelled King Zog a traitor and erased the royal family from the history books; monarchists see Prince Leka II’s upcoming marriage as an important symbol.

Around the Bloc: Around the Bloc - Czechs Must Learn to Save Water, Scientists Warn

Author(s): TOL TOL / Language(s): English Issue: 11/27/2018

Record low river and groundwater levels persist, but drinking water supplies are sufficient for now.

Around the Bloc: In Hungary, Summer Could Soon Last All Year

Author(s): TOL TOL / Language(s): English Issue: 11/22/2016

Move would put country’s clocks out of sync with most of the EU in winter.

Around the Bloc: Uzbek President Karimov Suffers Stroke

Author(s): TOL TOL / Language(s): English Issue: 08/30/2016

Police, troops guarding Tashkent hospital where the country’s only post-independence leader is being treated.

ART OF LEADERSHIP AT CORPORATIONS

Author(s): Michael Dylan Castle / Language(s): English Issue: 42/2019

As we complete the second decade of the new Millennium, leadership turned out to be a challenging assignment. Thanks to globalization, the effect of the crises situations vary from country based to worldwide extensively. The basic motivation for such a situation might be the rigorous awareness of social and mass broadcasting. This intensifies the extent of difficulty that the leaders encounter. The crises are usually unexpected and enduring, long-term, and highly expensive. It is claimed that nothing tests a leader better than a crisis. Crises create such vulnerable environments that leaders may be forced into taking sudden and effective decisions with very little knowledge. This situation brings instinct rather than mind and emotions rather than logic into the forefront.

Aspecte ale stratificării sociale în contextul transformărilor sociale şi perspectivei de integrare europeană a Republicii Moldova. Note de cercetare

Author(s): Victor Mocanu,Angela Mocanu / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 01/2015

The independence period of the Republic of Moldova conditioned important changes at the economic and political level. The deepest and most grievous changes, in terms of social cost, are those who have an impact on the social structure, the life conditions, the people’s behaviour and mentality. Social change refers to the modifications in the basic structures of the society, so it produces a quality and quantity passing to one level to another level of the social system. In this paper we present the results of a survey on a national-level in Moldova. The research was focused on the recent trends in social stratification in this former soviet country.Another issue was the evaluation of the current socio-political situation and the people’s orientations (towards Europe or towards the Euroasian Union).

Aspects of the national urban policy management under conditions of integrated planning

Author(s): Jonas Jakaitis,Narimantas Paliulis,Karolis Jakaitis / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2009

Lithuanian cities architecture politics development and strategic aims implementation are impossible without global integrated accomplishing systems of country management and official plan observation (monitoring, operative planning, consequence modelling). Important development strategy problem is rational resort of resources especially financial for the country needs. Solving these problems has to be reasoned with the country development strategy by adjusting long-term and short-term city economic development aims, when preparing and implementing developing complex programs for the most important city life areas. When realizing the country architecture strategic level aims, it is necessary to improve constantly city development department organizational-managerial structure by evaluating new functioning principles in democratic planning conditions, also e-autonomy, e-government conception and opportunities. Research of these problems is important for seeking natural, economic-social environment and country architecture harmony. It is necessary to give an appropriate working freedom for government workers and to raise their responsibility for decisions. Rational control system of making, taking and proceeding solutions is in need. It will make assumptions for responding operatively to raising problems and solving fast the most important national affairs and city economy development problems.

Assessment Model Of Nature-Based Touristic Motives In The Ovčar-Kablar Gorge (Serbia)

Author(s): Aleksandra Terzić,Željko Bjeljac,Jelena Obrenić / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2015

One of the initial stages of the tourist development is the assessment of the elements or the entire area in order to identify priorities that will continue to be presented and economically valorised through specific measures and activities. This is possible to achieve by using different models of evaluation with a tendency to more qualitative characteristics express quantitatively. The idea is to develop a universal model that can be applied to different areas in order to be comparable with each other, so decision-makers knew exactly which one of the areas has greater potential to develop tourism. This paper presents the model of evaluation of nature-based touristic motives that was created by combining several adapted methodologies. The proposed model is applied to the area of Ovčar-Kablar Gorge (Western Serbia). After the process of evaluation, it turns out that natural elements of Ovčar-Kablar Gorge have moderate importance to the development of tourism and that with concrete measures in the field of nature protection and planning of the tourist area, this status can be improved.

ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN SLOVAKIA IN THE CONTEXT OF HUMAN RESOURCES

Author(s): Dana Jašková / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2019

Human resources are a primary source for development of a country. The importance of social policies and human resources for social development is a matter of particular consideration in today's globalizing society. Social development, human capital, human resources are factors that are related. The problem of the country's social development is a topical issue throughout the European Union. When analyzing the development of social development of the country,several concepts and methods are applied in practice. The aim of the article is to compare the development of social development in Slovakia using a composite indicator. Composite indicators as a tool for ranking objects are becoming more and more popular. The article describes various methods of its construction, their advantages and disadvantages. The construction of this aggregate indicator is based on the application of more complex and multidimensional statistical methods. The result of the statistical survey is a finding of steady growth of social development in Slovakia. The close negative dependence between social development and unemployment is illustrated.

Assessment of the possibility of establishing cultural parks in selected rural and small town areas in the Lublin Province

Author(s): Sebastian Bernat,Katarzyna Szczygieł,Aleksandra Mękal / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2022

The study objective was to identify and assess the cultural landscape resources in two counties in the Lublin Province (Poland) – county of Radzyń Podlaski and county of Łęczna – and to examine the public opinion about the establishment of cultural parks within these two counties. The research procedure included an analysis of district-level planning and strategy documents, a SWOT analysis, a field inventory, and a questionnaire survey. This research was preceded by an analysis of the functioning of cultural parks in other regions in Poland. An additional goal of the study was to join the global discussion about cultural parks. The research has shown that the county of Radzyń Podlaski and county of Łęczna have great potential for creating cultural parks. However, it is necessary to improve the public awareness (particularly of local governments and property owners) about the cultural park as a form of protection and the development opportunities related to its establishment e.g. revitalisation, tourism and recreation. System-wide changes in the scope of establishment and functioning of cultural parks are also advisable.