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Susret Putina i Porošenka u Minsku (umesto neodržanog sastanka u Berlinu) završen je rezultatom ravnim apsolutnoj nuli. Vladimir Putin je izjavio da nije on taj s kim treba razgovarati o miru u Ukrajini već da su to predstavnici Narodnih republika Donjecka i Luganska, a ministar inostranih poslova Sergej Lavrov je najavio da se Rusija sprema da na zaraćeno područje pošalje novi humanitarni konvoj. Ideja o upućivanju humanitarnog konvoja je tek postfaktum postala do kraja jasna. Njena suština nije u tome da se na teritoriju suseda, u „trojanskom konvoju“ prevezu vojnici, oružje ili vojna tehnika. Sve pobrojano se već nekoliko meseci uredno prevozi preko rusko-ukrajinske granice.
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Međunarodni odnosi imaju svoju unutrašnju logiku. Još davne 1987, lideri SSSR i SAD su potpisali Dogovor o likvidiranju raketa srednjegi malog dometa (RSMD). To je bio prvi signal da se hladni rat završio. A u julu 2014, Vašington je optužio Moskvu da je vršila kopnene probe nove krilate rakete čiji domet prekoračuje okvire koji su ovim dogovorom propisane. Napominjem da su saglasno dogovoru RSMD tada bile uništene rakete s dometom od 500 do 5500 kilometara. Američka štampa je i ranije pisala o tome da usavršavanjem svoje krilate rakete P-500 koja je, kako se da razumeti, borbeni element operativno-taktičkog kompleksa „Iskander“, ruska strana zapravo krši dogovor.
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Europska unija hvali diskutabilni Sporazum o pridruživanju s Ukrajinom kao prilog stabilizaciji zemlje i kao izlaz iz njezine ekonomske nevolje. EU i Ukrajina su 21. ožujka potpisale politički dio Sporazuma, a EU je u prijelaznom razdoblju stavila na snagu trgovinske olakšice na izvoz ukrajinske robe. Sporazum bi pak u potpunosti trebao stupiti na snagu nakon ukrajinskih izbora krajem svibnja. No suprotno tvrdnjama EU-a, Sporazum zaoštrava napetosti u Ukrajini, kao i njezine ekonomske probleme.
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Frank-Walter Steinmeier je nedavno izjavio „da je Nemačka prevelika da bi komentarisala svetsku politiku“. Sada vidimo na šta je mislio. Nemačka ne samo da je komentarisala situaciju u Kijevu, već se i aktivno umešala. Rezultat je diplomatska katastrofa. Da li su Merkel i Steinmeier naivni ili su samo želeli da budu lukavi? Možda su nameravali da pomognu Ukrajincima ili čak da Putinu pokažu gde mu je mesto? Oba ova plana su se izjalovila. Bila podela ili rat, Ukrajina će platiti visoku cenu za to što je podlegla zapadnom iskušenju, u čemu i Nemačka ima veliku odgovornost.
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Pretpostavljam da su i amateri za međunarodnu politiku u Srbiji sa znatnom zabrinutošću protekle sedmice pratili novo zaoštravanje suprotstavljenih pogleda Zapada i Rusije na aktuelne probleme Ukrajine, koje je demonstrirano u Minhenu, na bezbednosnom forumu koji je okupio „najjače igrače“ svetske diplomatije.
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Sada je i onim najnadmenijim skepticima postalo jasno da spor Rusije i EU u vezi Ukrajine nije spor dva privredna subjekta oko ekonomskih interesa i višemilijardnih dugova ili kredita. Svi oni kojisu tvrdili da izbor evropskog puta Ukrajini neće doneti nikakva osetna preimućstva i finansijske olakšice, trebalo bi sada da stanu u ćošak i da se tamo stide. Suština izbora je ležala i nečem sasvim drugom. Marksistička ideja o srećnom životu koji se meri blagostanjem i stabilnošću, sada je u Ukrajini odgurnuta u zadnji plan. Viktor Janukovič ne samo da se odrekao evropskog puta, nego je izabrao put ruskog autoritarizma.
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Po Evropskoj uniji sada hodaju u potkovanim cipelama. To nije naročito teško, jer zver leži na zemlji. U centru već dugo nemaju nikakve nove ideje. Ali zato se na njenim periferijama događaju stvari koje iznova definišu kontinent. Vladimir Putin je za popust u nabavci plina i petnaest milijardi dolara od Viktora Janukoviča upravo kupio Ukrajinu, za koju je EU već bila pripremila sve papire. Trebalo ih je samo potpisati. Ovo je naravno uvredljivo. Nisu smatrali ni da treba evropsku državu obračunati u evrima. Evropa u Kijevu sada stoji vrlo loše. Ljudi koji tri nedelje demonstriraju po snegu i mrazu mašući evropskim zastavama postavljaće čudna pitanja.
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Belarus is the only country in Europe where public opinion polls are not published on a regular basis. This is a result of repressive policy of the Belarusian government, which has effectively banned sociological research related to politically ‘sensitive’ topics such as political ratings. This means that little is known about the attitudes of the Belarusian people or their views on political issues. At the request of the OSW and on the basis of questions it prepared, Belarusian interviewers conducted a telephone survey between 26 November and 16 December 2020 with a representative sample of1000 respondents, the aim of which was to examine Belarusian opinions about selected countries, including Poland and Russia. It should be emphasised that no one has conducted a similarly comprehensive public survey for many months.
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The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organized in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Bakuaxis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonize Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.
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The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.
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In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.
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A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.
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The Czech Republic should approach the EU-Turkey relationship from the perspective of how to bring back the EU’s democratizing influence over Turkey because the decline of democracy in the country is conducive to its unilateral and disruptive foreign policy in areas that are of strategic importance to the EU. The EU has recently adopted a global human rights sanctions regime that targets autocratizing regimes responsible for human rights violations, which can potentially include Turkey. Yet, some softer mechanisms contributing to democratization, such as the strengthening of the linkage between autonomous civil society organizations (CSOs) in Turkey and their European counterparts, are also worth considering as a foreign policy tool. The Czech Republic’s concern about the decline of democracy and rule of law worldwide makes it ideal that its foreign policy should employ such a soft strategy toward Turkey. It can motivate its own CSOs to increase their linkages with the CSOs that have managed to remain autonomous within Turkey’s polarized domestic setting. To this end, the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs can consider including Turkey as one of the priority countries in its Transition Promotion Program. The potential transnational cooperation between the Czech CSOs and the autonomous CSOs in Turkey can focus on less controversial issues for Turkey that still, however, constitute urgent challenges for both the Czech Republic and Turkey. Immigration and climate change are two such exemplary issues.
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One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.
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The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.
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The resilience thinking in the Czech Republic and Norway has been significantly influenced by the membership of both countries in NATO; however, a closer inspection reveals some significant differences between them and opens a space for their mutual learning. Norway should pay attention to which aspects of national security resilience are strengthened by the membership in the EU as well as the longer debate on the resilience to disinformation in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic could learn from the Norwegian thinking about the coordination of civil and military efforts in addressing security and military threats.
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The official title of the New START Treaty is the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The ten-year validity of the Treaty with expire on February 5, 2021, though there is the possibility of its extension for a further five years. The key question is whether both participating countries will agree with the mentioned extension. If not, more than 90% of the nuclear weapons in their possession (out of the total number of ca. 13,900 weapons) will not be subject to any arms-control limitation for the first time since 1972.
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The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.
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Leitmotivem nedávného kolektivního výhledu Strategic Trends (2015), redigovaného Oliverem Thränertem a Martinem Zapfem z ETH Zürich, je krize normativního řádu světové politiky, tedy krize norem jednání – ne vždy dodržovaných, ale přesto sdílených. Tak či onak tato krize sehrává ústřední roli i v projekcích mezinárodního bezpečnostního prostředí předkládaných v scénáristické studii, kterou právě držíte v rukou. A byť je tato krize řádu často vnímána jako cosi vysoce abstraktního, nekonkrétního a neuchopitelného, její regionální efekty jsou jasně zřetelné: od „zelených mužíků“ zabírajících území svrchovaného státu ve východním sousedství NATO a EU až po protostátní fundamentalistické aktéry jako ISIL s ambicemi překreslit politickou mapu Blízkého východu a okolí.
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