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Still together, but apart? Kyiv’s policy towards the Donbas

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The peace deal agreed on 5 September 2014 concerning the ceasefire in the region covered by the conflict in the Donbas brought about a significant reduction in the scale of military clashes. However, in mid-January the separatist forces, supported by the Russian military, started an offensive along the entire front line. For example, they seized the airport in Donetsk and the village of Krasnyi Partyzan. About a third of the Donetsk and the Lugansk oblasts currently remain outside Kyiv’s control (see Map). Before the war, these areas were inhabited by 6.6 million residents, 15% of Ukraine’s total population. The process launched in September 2014 in Minsk, which was intended to regulate the conflict within the so-called trilateral contact group (Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and representatives of the separatists), resulted in an exchange of some prisoners of war, although it failed to have any political effects. Attempts at regulating the political situation were additionally complicated by the illegal ‘elections’ of leaders of the two separatist regions, the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (the DPR and LPR).

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Soft Belarusianisation. The ideology of Belarus in the era of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

Author(s): Piotr Rudkouski / Language(s): English

Over the past three years, a distinct change has become visible in the ideological discourse of the government of Belarus. To an increasing degree, the state ideology is focusing on strengthening national identity, emphasising the divergence of Belarus’s interests from those of Russia, and re-examining the historical narration in a direction which emphasises the distinctiveness of the history of Belarus from that of Russia. Above all, the government has changed its attitude towards the Belarusian language and culture. A campaign promoting the Belarusian language is being carried out on a large scale – under the auspices of state ideologues. The government has also become involved in the promotion of vyshyvanki, traditional, embroidered Belarusian clothes and their ornamentation. This allows us to talk about a process of ‘soft Belarusianisation’. Articles criticising Kremlin policy have begun to appear fairly regularly in the government media. Official representatives of the authorities, while not going so far as to promote the idea of friendship with the West, no longer refer to it using the rhetoric of the ‘enemy’, as was previously the case. This modification of ideological discourse probably means that the regime is looking for new ways to arrange its relationships, both with its own society and with the countries of the West. This does not mean, however, that the authorities are ready for systemic changes. The role of the President and the concept of the state remain unaltered in ideological discourse; there is still no tripartite division of power, and civil society’s room for manoeuvre remains narrow.

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The Protracted Rohingya Crisis in Bangladesh and the Prospects of a Resolution

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The humanitarian crisis of nearly 1 million Rohingya who fled from persecution in Myanmar to Bangladesh is now in its third year, and the prospects for its end are distant. Although most refugees want to return to Myanmar, the chances of repatriation are low due to the reluctance of the authorities there. Prolonging the current situation threatens to worsen the living conditions of refugees, increase the burden on Bangladesh and perhaps pose a challenge to the security of the region. The international community should continue helping Rohingya, increase pressure on Myanmar and look for innovative ways to end the crisis.

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Przedłużający się kryzys humanitarny Rohingów w Bangladeszu i perspektywy jego rozwiązania

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Kryzys humanitarny blisko 1 mln Rohingów, którzy uciekli z Mjanmy do Bangladeszu, trwa już trzeci rok, a perspektywy jego zakończenia są odległe. Chociaż większość uchodźców chce wrócić do Mjanmy, szanse na repatriację są niewielkie z uwagi na niechętną postawę jej władz. Przedłużanie obecnej sytuacji grozi pogorszeniem warunków życia uchodźców, zwiększeniem obciążeń dla Bangladeszu i być może wyzwaniem dla bezpieczeństwa regionu. Społeczność międzynarodowa powinna kontynuować pomoc dla Rohingów, zwiększać presję na Mjanmę i poszukiwać innowacyjnych sposobów zakończenia kryzysu.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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Newsletter 08-09/2021

Author(s): Vesna Pusić,Boris Pavelić,Srđan Šušnica,Mustafa Akyol,Vlado Azinović,Afiya Shehrbano Zia,Jennifer Heath,Ashraf Zahedi / Language(s): English

In this issue of the Atlantic Initiative Newsletter, we present a series of current analyses and opinions on the political situation in the Western Balkans, with a special focus on the recent crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina caused by the systemic blockade of its state institutions. Instead of an editorial, we publish a text by Vesna Pusić, who writes about contemporary obstacles to the European transformation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and other Western Balkan countries. Pusić focusses on unblocking the progression of Euro-Atlantic processes, and how the EU must find a new modus vivendi with Russia in order to expedite change. Also, in the context of recent crises, Croatian journalist Boris Pavelić writes about relations between Sarajevo and Zagreb. Pavelić pays special attention to the friction between the recent policies of the President of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and how their opposing political rhetorics serve to strengthen destructive nationalisms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latest tensions in the Western Balkans are analyzed by culturologist and publicist Srđan Šušnica, an expert on Russian politics and its malignant influence in the region, especially in Serbia. Šušnica argues that stability and peace in the Balkans region depend on the determination of the European Union and the United States to prevent disruptive policies in Serbia and the BiH entity of RS (as well as Montenegro and northern Kosovo), through military, economic and political sanctions. For this issue of the Newsletter, the Atlantic Initiative interviewed the eminent Turkish writer and journalist Mustafa Akyol, who addresses religion and politics in the Muslim world. Amila Buturović spoke with Akyol about his book The Reopening of Muslim Minds, which will soon be published in a Bosnian edition. His book has aroused global attention and great interest, especially because of its call for reform and enlightenment within Islam as a way to solve problems within Muslim societies. Vlado Azinović writes about the recent release from prison of Husein Bilal Bosnić, who was sentenced by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina to seven years in prison for recruiting for and inciting terrorist activities, and organizing terrorist groups. As an expert witness in the Prosecutor's Office of BiH in the trial, Azinović looks back at the trial itself and the accusations for which Bosnić was convicted, and also provides an analysis of his ideology and possible future activities. In this issue, we also feature two timely texts on the new situation in Afghanistan after the return to power of the Taliban. Afiya Shehrbano Zia writes about the resistance and struggle of Afghan women against oppression in the context of global feminist debates and criticism of Western interventions in Afghanistan, while also looking at how non-Western feminists have engaged with the situation. Jenifer Heath and Ashraf Zahedi contribute a joint article on the prospects for women in Afghanistan - around education, rights, work and daily life - as Taliban rule recommences after 20 years of US occupation and the recent withdrawals.

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Newsletter - 10/2022

Author(s): Edina Bećirević,Senad Pećanin,Jasmin Mujanović,Vahidin Preljević,Ivo Komšić,Borut Šuklje,Toby Vogel / Language(s): English

1. The Future of Europe: The Threat of Military Aggression Against Ukraine and Secessionism in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2. Listening to the echo of Putin’s Russia in Ukraine 3. Provincialism & Malign Interference: Overcoming Political and Institutional Barriers to Defending BiH’s Constitutional Order 4. Does radicalization pay off? 5. Central Bosnia: The Key to Survival for Bosnia and Herzegovina 6. From the Washington Marriott to the written-off political basketball player 7. The EU and USA should create the space for a new social contract

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Newsletter - 10/2022

Author(s): Edina Bećirević,Senad Pećanin,Jasmin Mujanović,Vahidin Preljević,Ivo Komšić,Borut Šuklje,Toby Vogel / Language(s): Bosnian

1. Budućnost Evrope: Prijetnja vojnom agresijom na Ukrajinu i secesionizam u Bosni i Hercegovini 2. Osluškujući eho Putinove Rusije u Ukrajini 3. Provincijalizam i zloćudno uplitanje: Prevazilaženje političkih i institucionalnih barijera u odbrani ustavnog poretka BiH 4. Da li se radikalizacija isplati? 5. Srednja Bosna: ključ opstanka Bosne i Hercegovine 6. Od washingtonskog Marriotta do otpisanog političkog košarkaša 7. EU i SAD trebaju stvoriti prostor za novi društveni ugovor

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Protokol o postupanju, prevenciji i zaštiti od nasilja u porodici

Author(s): Olja Stojanović,Biljana Zeković / Language(s): Montenegrine

Nasilje u porodici je najčešći, ali i najskriveniji, vid nasilja koji postoji koliko i samo čovječanstvo. Vijekovima se smatralo da je nasilje prema članovima porodice porodična, privatna stvar, pa su samim tim njegove razmjere bile nevidljive. Razvojem svijesti o ljudskim pravima, te pravima djece, žena i starijih u porodici u posljednje četiri decenije srušeni su brojni stereotipi o idealnoj porodici, kao što su na primjer uvjerenje o djetinjstvu kao najsretnijem razdoblju života, uvjerenje da su počinitelji seksualnog zlostavljanja najčešće osobe nepoznate žrtvi, uvjerenje o dostojanstvenoj starosti u krugu najbližih. Posljednjih decenija je nasilje u porodici postalo predmet šire društvene rasprave, naučnih istraživanja, briga brojnih društvenih i državnih institucija, a naročito nevladinih organizacija koje su istakle da je porodično nasilje (u kome su žrtve najčešće žene) jedan od najdrastičnijih oblika kršenja ljudskih prava. Klinička iskustva i empirijska istraživanja su pokazala da porodica kao osnovna jedinica društva nije samo podržavajuće okruženje koje pruža emocionalnu, socijalnu i materijalnu podršku članovima, već može biti i nasilno okruženje, pa sopstveni dom za koji kažemo da je utočište od surovog spoljnjeg svijeta postaje najopasnije mjesto u kojem se na najbrutalniji način krše osnovna ljudska prava njenih članova. Nasilje u porodici možemo odrediti kao skup ponašanja čiji je cilj kontrola nad drugim osobama upotrebom sile, zastrašivanjem i manipulacijom. Takvo određenje nasilja može se primijeniti u svim oblicima porodičnog nasilja – fizičko zlostavljanje, psihičko zlostavljanje, seksualno zlostavljanje i materijalno i radno iskorišćavanje. Nasilje u porodici predstavlja model ponašanja, u kome uglavnom muškarac, ostvaruje nadmoć i kontrolu nad drugima, korišćenjem fizičke ili psihičke prisile. Nasilju u porodici mogu biti izloženi svi članovi porodice, ali su najčešće žrtve ovog nasilja žene, djeca i starije osobe. Tolerisanje nasilja u porodici ima duboke korijene u kulturnim i patrijarhalnim obrascima ponašanja, koji podrazumijevaju rodno zasnovane strukture moći, podređenu poziciju žene, upotrebu fizičke snage kao legitimnog sredstva kontrole i moći prema ženi i slabijim članovima porodice. Patrijarhalni kulturni obrasci, koji su potpuno uspostavljeni i široko rasprostranjeni, su takvog karaktera da direktno i simbolički izražavaju i odražavaju autoritet i dominaciju muške grupe nad ženskom. Svi postupci muškaraca prema ženama i djeci, prema članovima porodice iz „nižih nivoa hijerarhije“, shvataju se kao pravo i obaveza „vaspitača“ da disciplinuju i uređuju unutrašnje odnose, da kažnjavaju neprivilegovane članove. Nasilje u porodici je izuzetno ozbiljan i složen problem sa kojim se susrijeću kako same porodice, tako i obrazovne i socijalne ustanove, organi unutrašnjih poslova i institucije pravosudnog sistema, nevladine organizacije. Ali, zakonski propisi, te pojedini strateški dokumenti, koji u svojim segmentima tretiraju problem nasilja, u praksi su teško primjenjivi jer ih nije pratilo: osiguranje infrastrukture koja je pretpostavka za sprovođenje zakona, osiguranje potrebnih sredstava, edukacija kadrova, umrežavanje nadležnih subjekata za primjenu legislative, uspostavljanje jedinstvene statističke baze podataka o žrtvama nasilja u porodici.

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Evropa u mom gradu - O čemu pregovoramo i što nam pregovori sa EU donose?

Author(s): Ana Vujošević,Boris Marić,Chiara Gaia Iascone,Daliborka Uljarević,Danilo Ajković,Eliška Veselá,Jelena Žugić,Marko Šošić,Milan Marković,Mladen Perazić,Nemanja Tepavčević,Nikola Djonović,Petar Đukanović,Snežana Kaluđerović,Tamara Milaš,Vera Šćepanović,Vučić Ćetković / Language(s): Montenegrine

Crna Gora će proći do sada najzahtjevniji i najsloženiji put pregovora sa Evropskom unijom (EU). Činjenica da će pregovori početi poglavljima 23 – Pravosuđe i temeljna prava i 24 – Pravda, sloboda i bezbijednost, kao i da će ova poglavlja ostati otvorena do samog kraja, ukazuje na veličinu izazova sa kojim će biti suočena Crna Gora tokom pregovaračkog procesa. U publikaciji pred vama je kratak osvrt na ono čime će se veliki broj ljudi uključenih u pregovore po raznim osnovama, a posebno crnogorske nadležne institucije, baviti kroz usklađivanje crnogorskog pravnog okvira sa komunitarnom tekovinom EU, ali i kroz riješavanje raznih nivoa problema tokom cijelog procesa pregovora i nakon njih. Naša je namjera da približimo široj javnosti sadržaj pregovaračkih poglavlja projektujući ih na crnogorski model pregovora. Naime, jedna dimenzija ovog složenog procesa je to što će hiljade ljudi konkretno, dugo i naporno raditi na ispunjavanju preporuka EU i usklađivanju pravnog okvira sa standardima EU, odnosno izgradnji institucionalnih i demokratskih kapaciteta crnogorskog društva. Ali, druga, podjednako važna dimenzija jeste što će se paralelno svi građani i građanke Crne Gore, polako ali sigurno, kretati ka razumijevanju i prihvatanju konteksta koji će oblikovati pregovori po ovim poglavljima, a što će pratiti učinkovite reforme. Poglavlja su kreirana po društvenim oblastima i cio proces je vrlo precizno razrađen da prvo skenira stanje društva koje treba da postane punopravni član EU, kroz eksplanatorne i bilateralne sastanke, nakon kojih se kroz napredak i realizaciju akcionih planova dolazi do mjerila za otvaranje pojedinih poglavlja koje prati dalji napredak i efikasnost i efektivnost realizacije utvrđenih zadataka do dostizanja mjerila za zatvaranje pojedinih poglavlja. Ova procedura pregovora može asocirati i na pravila neke društvene igre. Ko prođe sve baze na koje naiđe pobijedio je. Lijepo bi bilo da su pregovori igra, ali oni su najzahtjevniji i najizazovniji proces sa kojim se crnogorske institucije sistema, pa i crnogorsko društvo, u cjelini suočavaju. Dešava nam se da stavljamo svoje kapacitete na provjeru na način koji nam do sada nije bio svojstven. Provjeravamo mogućnosti pune izgradnje institucionalnih kapaciteta, istražujemo sopstvene demokratske potencijale, suočavamo se sa razbijanjem tabua i predrasuda, otvaramo se za drugosti, postajemo spremni da preuzmemo odgovornost. Možda se nekom čini da smo ovo nekada ili makar nešto od ovoga već radili. Pokušaja jeste bilo, ali sistemskog pristupa izgradnji funkcionalne demokratije i nečega što kratko možemo definisati kao evropeizaciju društva zasigurno nije bilo. Danas i Unija ima brojne probleme, a posebno su izraženi problemi ekonomske prirode. Sumnjičavi bi mogli postaviti pitanje da li je uopšte opravdano kretati se ka evropskim integracijama, da li su iste možda prevaziđene? Kvalitet evropskih integracija je upravo u tome što je Unija uspjela da izgradi mehanizme demokratskog rješavanja svih pitanja. A taj kvalitet je vrlo potreban na ovim prostorima. EU nije samo uspješna ekonomska priča, ona je prije svega uspješna demokratska priča. Sve i da, hipotetički gledano, Crna Gora odustane od evropskih integracija, ona ne bi imala budućnost funkcionalne i prosperitetne demokratije bez pretresanja i izgradnje društveno-političke i ekonomske osnove na vrijednosnoj osnovi izgrađenoj u Uniji.

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NATO Summit in Vilnius: breakthroughs and unfulfilled hopes

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska,Marek Menkiszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The main topics of the NATO Vilnius Summit held on 11–12 July were deterrence and defense, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO, and deepening relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific. The Alliance is partly returning to the defense planning processes and structures that were in place during the Cold War, but which NATO abandoned in the 1990s. The adoption of three regional defense plans constitutes a structural change in NATO’s approach to collective defense, but will require implementation and funding in the years to come.

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The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU’s Economy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.

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‘Europe’s engine’ seizing up. French-German relations during the polycrisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the differences in interests between Paris and Berlin, and caused tension to accumulate in their bilateral relations. The significance of this tension goes beyond the purely bilateral dimension: policy alignment between the EU’s two most important members has always played a key role in the integration mechanism in Europe. However, the current disputes will not necessarily bring an end to this coordination. They are deeply embedded in the patterns of the traditionally divergent approaches which Germany and France have to economic, security, and integration issues, which is why they have not come as any surprise to the ruling elites in these states. Nevertheless, both countries will benefit from overcoming them in the long-term. Efforts to define Franco--German cooperation in an enlarged and more diverse EU will pose an even greater challenge to Paris and Berlin. Flexible coalitions between states and other cooperation formats which arise ad hoc will likely compete with these two leaders.

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Russia’s Ukrainian dilemma: Moscow’s strategy towards Kyiv

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia’s escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow’s intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date – both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure – have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behaviour of key Western actors.

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The Caucasus deregulated. The region on the anniversary of the end of the second Karabakh war

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

A year after the end of the second Karabakh war, the situation in the South Caucasus evades simple definition. On the one hand, it seems relatively stable: most of the provisions of the tripartite Statement that gave rise to the end of the fighting are being implemented. Moreover, apart from a defeated and weakened Armenia, all the actors involved in the war have reasons to be satisfied: Azerbaijan has regained control of most of the disputed territories and has proved its strength; Turkey, which supported Baku, has reaffirmed and expanded its influence in the region; Russia has strengthened its position as a regulator of the conflict, as mediator and guarantor of the agreement. On the other hand, however, the region is much more ‘deregulated’ and unstable than it was before the war: the ceasefire on the Karabakh front is based on a document of low formal status, as the real peace process is still frozen; the sense of satisfaction among all the participants (especially Baku and Ankara) is at an unsatisfactorily low level in relation to the ambitions awakened within their societies. Finally, the impression that the entire regional order is being undermined is not waning as the Turkish-Russian rivalry grows and – on the other hand – the role of the West and Iran, which played practically no role during the conflict or the year since its end, is marginalized.

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High North, high priority – Norway and the defence of NATO’s northern flank

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

NATO’s northern flank plays an increasingly important role in the security of the Euro--Atlantic area. Russia’s forces in the Northern Military District pose not only a conventional threat to Norway, but also a nuclear threat to the whole NATO, including the United States and Canada due to submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian Federation has been consistently increasing its military presence in the Arctic and its military activity along Norway’s borders. Deterring Russia in the High North, in increasingly close cooperation with the allies, is thus a key task for the Norwegian Armed Forces. Oslo is gradually lifting Cold War restrictions in the defence sphere and intensifying military cooperation with the US, which is stirring up political controversy in the country. From the US perspective, NATO’s northern flank is becoming more vital for containing Moscow. That is why they signed the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement with Norway, expanding US troop access to military infrastructure there.

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A durable state. The 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine proclaimed independence, and a few months later (together with Russia and Belarus) it brought about the dissolution of the USSR. At the time of its foundation, the Ukrainian state was a continuation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic; on the one hand, this delayed the de-Communisation of the organisational and legal system, but on the other, it saved the country from having to build up state institutions from scratch. After nearly a quarter of a century, the hour of its greatest trial arrived – revolution and war with Russia. Ukraine passed this test: it did not unilaterally implement the political part of the Minsk agreements which posed a direct threat to it, nor has it fallen into the group of ‘failed states’. The main threat to its future is not so much the ongoing conflict in the Donbas or the weakness of the economy, but rather demographic collapse: during its nearly thirty years of independence, it has lost a fifth of its population.

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№123: Breaking Down Russian and Chinese Disinformation and Propaganda About the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Russia and China use a convergent narrative about the reasons for the war in Ukraine. Both accuse the West, mainly the United States, of provoking Russia, and as a result, the indivisibility of European security has been undermined. Despite the similarities, the Chinese narrative is not entirely the same as Russia’s. China formats its messages about the war in such a way that it attempts to create the perception of it as a still-neutral partner, restraining Russia’s actions. The European Union should pay more attention to Chinese disinformation, which can more effectively reach people and groups not susceptible to Russian narratives.

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Reaction of Tech Companies to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, many global technology companies have taken action against Russia. Restricting the functioning of Russia-based accounts by some social media platforms or impeding the export of technology to Russia by other companies (in addition to sanctions imposed by states) represent a new level of involvement of private actors in international conflicts. Increasing pressure from Western states may contribute to further steps weakening Russian disinformation on social media and Russia’s economic potential due to limited access to high technology.

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