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Trzy miesiące rosyjskiej interwencji w Syrii – implikacje wojskowe i polityczne
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Trzy miesiące rosyjskiej interwencji w Syrii – implikacje wojskowe i polityczne

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Trzy miesiące rosyjskiej operacji wojskowej w Syrii pokazały nie tylko rosnące zdolności ekspedycyjne rosyjskich sił zbrojnych (w szczególności lotnictwa), ale również ich słabości – przede wszystkim związane z brakami sprzętowymi i problemami logistycznymi. Przedłużające się działania będą wprawdzie coraz większym wyzwaniem dla rosyjskiego budżetu, jednak dla armii stanowią okazję do testowania sprzętu i uzbrojenia nowych typów. Nie wpłyną także na zmniejszenie zaangażowania w Donbasie. Równocześnie powodzenie operacji będzie istotne dla wzmocnienia rosyjskiej pozycji podczas rozmów pokojowych w Syrii, co może się przełożyć na wzrost znaczenia Rosji nie tylko na Bliskim Wschodzie, ale i na arenie międzynarodowej.

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Russia in the South Caucasus: Conflict Management and Business with Oligarchs
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Russia in the South Caucasus: Conflict Management and Business with Oligarchs

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Russia’s policy towards Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan combines poorly veiled threats of destabilisation (if any state dares to ignore Russian interests) with occasional offers of economic and military cooperation. Russia’s ability to influence security in the region is significant due to its instability. The result of Russia’s actions may be, among others, new incidents in regions controlled by separatists or threatened by separatism. The EU and NATO should develop their initiatives in the South Caucasus and in Georgia present a vision for further deepening of the country’s integration with the respective organisations.

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Rosja na Kaukazie Południowym: zarządzanie konfliktem i biznes z oligarchami
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Rosja na Kaukazie Południowym: zarządzanie konfliktem i biznes z oligarchami

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): Polish

Polityka Rosji wobec Gruzji, Armenii i Azerbejdżanu łączy słabo zawoalowane groźby polityczne z ofertami w sferze gospodarczej i wojskowej. Możliwości wpływu Rosji na bezpieczeństwo w regionie są znaczne ze względu na jego niestabilność. Skutkiem rosyjskich działań mogą być m.in. nowe incydenty w regionach kontrolowanych przez separatystów lub zagrożonych separatyzmem. UE i NATO powinny rozwijać swoje inicjatywy na Kaukazie Południowym, a Gruzji przedstawić wizję dalszego pogłębienia integracji z obiema organizacjami.

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Canada’s Ukrainian Diaspora and the Country’s Strong Support for Kyiv
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Canada’s Ukrainian Diaspora and the Country’s Strong Support for Kyiv

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

The existence of a large, very politically active Ukrainian diaspora in Canada largely explains the strong commitment of the country to military and economic assistance for Ukraine. This makes Canada an important partner for the EU’s and Poland’s joint projects in building support for Ukraine, including both the construction of a stable democracy there and in strengthening its economy. Cooperation with Canada through NATO can contribute to strengthening the Alliance’s eastern flank.

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Ukraińska diaspora i kanadyjska pomoc dla Kijowa
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Ukraińska diaspora i kanadyjska pomoc dla Kijowa

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): Polish

Istnienie dużej, bardzo aktywnej politycznie ukraińskiej diaspory w Kanadzie w znacznym stopniu wyjaśnia silne zaangażowanie tego kraju w pomoc wojskową i gospodarczą dla Ukrainy. Czyni to z Kanady istotnego partnera dla Unii Europejskiej i Polski w tworzeniu wspólnych projektów wspierania Ukrainy, zarówno w budowie stabilnej demokracji, jak i w umacnianiu gospodarki. Współdziałanie z Kanadą w NATO może umocnić wschodnią flankę Sojuszu.

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Turkey’s Peace Process with the PKK Faltering
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Turkey’s Peace Process with the PKK Faltering

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

The peace negotiations between Turkey and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) will enter a critical moment prior to Turkey’s general elections on 7 June 2015. Despite a mutual commitment to a political solution, the peace process is at risk of failure because it is vulnerable to several factors, including potential rifts within the PKK leadership, the threat of ISIS on the Turkish border and the upcoming elections, which the government wants to go ahead undisturbed. While cooperating in the fight against ISIS, the EU and the U.S. should support the peace process while also emphasising to Kurdish forces their commitment to the territorial integrity of the region.

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The Islamic State: A Threat to Russia
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The Islamic State: A Threat to Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

The Islamic State’s military offensive constitutes not only a threat to other states of the region, Europe and the United States, but also to Russia. This is down to the potency of the spread of Islamist ideology within the borders of the Caucasus entities of the Russian Federation, and also the latter’s international environment. For this reason, while criticising the American and European policies in the Middle East, Russia is simultaneously in favour of armed activities aimed at the Islamic State, and the Russian authorities are proposing the formation of a new, anti-terrorism coalition under the auspices of the United Nations. Poland should join it only if the U.S. and EU Member States are also going to participate.

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Państwo Islamskie zagrożeniem dla Rosji
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Państwo Islamskie zagrożeniem dla Rosji

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): Polish

Ofensywa Państwa Islamskiego jest zagrożeniem nie tylko dla państw regionu, Europy i USA, lecz także dla Rosji. Decyduje o tym podatność kaukaskich podmiotów Federacji, a także jej bezpośredniego sąsiedztwa międzynarodowego, na ideologię islamistyczną. Dlatego Rosja, choć krytykuje politykę amerykańską i europejską na Bliskim Wschodzie, sprzyja operacjom zbrojnym wymierzonym w tę organizację terrorystyczną, a także wysunęła koncepcję utworzenia nowej koalicji pod egidą ONZ. Polska powinna poprzeć taką koalicję jedynie pod warunkiem, że będą brały w niej udział również USA i państwa UE.

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The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine
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The New Government in Finland will Grant Stable Support to Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the new right-wing coalition government formed on 20 June, the centre-right, economically liberal National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo plays a leading role. He succeeded Sanna Marin of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who headed the centre-left cabinet. The entry of the nationalist Finns Party (PS) into the government will not reduce Finland’s commitment to help Ukraine. Furthermore, the new government will increase its activity in NATO. This aligns with Poland’s security policy goals, also in the Baltic Sea region.

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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations
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China Tempting EU Members and the Effect on Transatlantic Relations

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.

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COVID, Economy, Security: Themes of the French Presidential Campaign
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COVID, Economy, Security: Themes of the French Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

While the French election campaign focuses on internal issues, the most important of them, including fighting the pandemic, the economy, environmental protection, and security issues, relate to the debate over globalisation and European integration. Macron’s policy of strengthening cooperation with partners in the EU and NATO is being criticised by the centre-right candidate Valérie Pécresse or negated by the far-right and far-left. Despite the different views on the future of the EU and the transatlantic partnership, the re-election of Macron seems to be the best scenario for Poland’s interests.

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Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea
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Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy - striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.

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War and Elections: French Presidential Candidates on the Russian Invasion
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War and Elections: French Presidential Candidates on the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Russia’s attack on Ukraine dominated the French debate in the last month of the presidential campaign and sparked widespread condemnation. Candidates who had previously declared pro-Kremlin views partially modified their rhetoric, while President Emmanuel Macron, who maintains an advantage in the polls, tried to emphasise the lack of a credible alternative to himself. A prolonged war or if fighting spreads to other countries may induce the French to focus even more deeply on security issues. Cessation of the hostilities will stimulate a discussion on the legitimacy of the scale of the adopted sanctions and their consequences for France.

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Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda
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Russia’s Wartime Censorship and Propaganda

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.

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Safe skies? Air defence on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank
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Safe skies? Air defence on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank

Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the crucial role of air and missile defence in modern full-scale conflicts. A multi-layered, adequately saturated and integrated system is necessary to provide cover for troops, and also to protect the critical infrastructure and major population centres of the countries on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank. These countries, along with Sweden and Finland, have varying levels of air defence protection, but none of them are currently sufficient in themselves, and the ongoing efforts to build multi-layered air defences leave much to be desired. Only some of these countries are in the advanced process of modernising and building up their capabilities. There are also some whose systems provide only rudimentary protection, and which have no plans to develop them adequately or are unable to do so for financial reasons. This poses a problem more broadly for the Alliance as a whole, as the critical infrastructure in these countries – which will be used for military purposes in case of a NATO operation – is insufficiently protected.

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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports
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The EU's Options to Limit Russia's Arms Exports

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

In response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the European Union may consider imposing an embargo on Russian arms exports to its partners in the form of secondary sanctions. The aim would be to discourage third countries from purchasing weapons from Russia and to reduce the profits of the Russian defence industry. This could translate into lower revenues for the Russian budget and limiting its influence in the world. The EU should coordinate actions with the U.S. and its allies, including adopting a programme of support in the replacement of Russian weapons by states that are its traditional recipients.

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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries
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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Food Security of Developing Countries

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine is yet another economic challenge for developing countries after the COVID-19 pandemic and threatens their food security. The expected lower production and limits on export of grains from Ukraine and Russia, as well asrising costs of energy resources and fertilisers have led to an increase in global food prices. To counter this crisis, the EU and the U.S. may seek to increase the worldwide supply of cereals, including by activating strategic reserves, refraining from export restrictions, strengthening financing for organisations preventing hunger, and facilitating trade in fertilisers.

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Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine
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Involvement of EU Agencies in Helping Countries That Are Receiving Refugees from Ukraine

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

EU support for Member States most affected by the war in Ukraine includes funding for reception measures and ensuring refugees have access to protection throughout the Community, as well as coordination and operational assistance from EU agencies. The offer of agency resources extends to humanitarian aid, border management, and capacity-building of the Member States. Exploring the full potential of the EU agencies will require overcoming their internal problems and the will of the Member States to involve them in such cooperation,

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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU
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Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Debate on the Future of Agriculture in the EU

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.

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Ukrainian Society in the Face of War
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Ukrainian Society in the Face of War

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Social mobilisation in Ukraine in the face of the Russian aggression remains high. The majority of the population actively supports the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces and the authorities, and there are relatively few cases of collaboration with enemy forces in the occupied territories. However, the lack of prospects for a quick end to the war may weaking the determination to resist. That is why it is important to provide support directly to Ukrainian society, including humanitarian aid.

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