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Стратегічна ціна Російської агресії для економіки України (Дослідження охоплює період, що передує повномасштабному вторгненню 24 лютого 2022 року)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Ukrainian

The systemic economic and social effect of hybrid aggression, which the Russian Federation has been carrying out against Ukraine since 2014, has been studied. The combination of direct losses of natural, material and human resources due to the occupation of part of Ukraine with the creation of significant obstacles to economic and social development of the country, narrowing the choice of development paths. The adaptability of the Ukrainian economy to these negative consequences was assessed and steps were taken to overcome them. A vision of the principles of the strategy of easing the price of Russian aggression for Ukraine and reducing the sensitivity of the national economy to further hybrid influences is proposed.

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Придністровський конфлікт: Уроки для України

Author(s): A. O. Filipenko,Larysa Filipenko / Language(s): Ukrainian

Russia's aggression against Ukraine has helped restore attention to military and political conflicts in the post-Soviet space and the experience of resolving them. Especially those that took place with the direct participation of the Russian Federation (RF), namely - Transnistria, conflicts in Georgia (Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region), which actually continued the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. Each of them differs in the duration of the military phase, the scale of hostilities and the number of victims, economic and political consequences, the level and nature of political and military involvement of the Russian Federation. // As a result of these conflicts, quasi-state entities (the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (TMR), the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia) have been created, which are under Russian control and receive political, military, financial, economic and informational assistance from from Moscow. // These state formations have different political and legal status. The Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia have been recognized by Russia and several of its client states since the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, while the Transnistrian region has not been recognized.

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Енергетична безпека України: методологія системного аналізу та стратегічного планування

Author(s): O. M. Sukhodolya,Yurii M. Kharazishvili,D. G. Bobro,A. Yu. Smenkovsky,G. L. Ryabtsev,S. P. Zavgorodnya / Language(s): Ukrainian

The analytical report examines the problems of assessing and strategizing the level of energy security. A model for assessing the state of energy security in the national security system is proposed, a set of indicators for assessing energy security is formalized, calculations of the state and threats to energy security of Ukraine are performed according to the modern methodology of integrated assessment. Strategic scenarios of energy security development in the context of sustainable development are substantiated. Recommendations for legislative regulation of the activities of entities in the field of energy security have been developed. // Designed for experts, scientists, specialists in the fields of energy, economics, national security, government entities, energy market actors, representatives of public organizations, as well as anyone interested in energy security. The study will be useful in the formulation of energy policy, strategic planning in the field of economic and energy development, energy security, the formation of energy and national security assessments, development and adoption of regulations governing legal relations in this area.

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Енергетична зброя у геополітичній стратегії Росії

Author(s): O. M. Sukhodolya / Language(s): Ukrainian

Is energy an element of the national security system? Is energy used as a tool to achieve political goals? Were the causes of various "energy crises" in the post-Soviet space really purely economic? // Does Russia have a strategy to use energy weapons to realize its geopolitical ambitions? These questions have often been raised in the political, economic, and security discourses of various actors in world politics. For Western countries, they are rather a manifestation of curiosity and theoretical discussion about various possible developments in distant Eastern Europe. At the same time, for the countries of Eastern Europe themselves, the possible answers influenced the formation of policies and the consolidation of national security priorities. Moreover, the principal choice of the direction of integration processes was actually determined. // For Russia, on the other hand, energy has always been an instrument of politics, not economics. This position is clearly traced in the conceptual developments of scientists, strategic documents in the field of national security and practical actions of various institutions to implement the latter. For Russia, the use of energy weapons focused only on finding the most effective methods, tools and instruments for its use. // In recent decades, Russia has enriched the experience of using energy as a political weapon and formed new tools for its use in a hybrid confrontation with the West. Obviously, from now on this will become a constant source of risks to the stability of life in many countries around the world and will require constant monitoring of new types of threats generated by the use of energy weapons. The proposed study is aimed at understanding the conceptual foundations and organizational aspects of energy implementation in the system of ensuring the realization of Russia's national interests in the international arena.

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Analysis of the Ukrainian Security Policy at the End of 2006: Taking Stock

Author(s): Viktor Chumak / Language(s): English

On the surface, 2006 has seen major changes to the way defense and security issues are approached by both the government and the public. This is primarily because of the high level of attention that has been devoted to the topic of NATO membership, which has become the subject of a bitter political struggle. When Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych announced in September that Ukraine would not be seeking a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the Riga Summit in November 2006, this seemed to emphasize the fact that the new government had a different approach to defense, security and foreign policy issues.

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International peacekeeping and the war in Eastern Ukraine: are there any points of contact? Preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peacekeeping and peacebuilding in the settlement of the “Ukrainian conflict”

Author(s): Vasyl Filipchuk,Olena Zakharova,Yevhen Yaroshenko / Language(s): English

The Minsk agreements contributed to the transformation of the war in eastern Ukraine into a conflict of low intensity but did not lead to the restoration of peace, or even a sustainable truce. Within the existing negotiation processeither the Trilateral Contact Group or the “Normandy Four” format – the parties failed to propose an effective way to restore peace and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Additionally, the logic of the negotiation process set by the Minsk agreements has a very limited capacity to achieve results that are in the interests of our country. Currently, international participation in the conflict settlement is limited to the monitoring of the conflict and the facilitation of OSCE contact group activities. Meanwhile, some forms of international engagement that are officially requested by Ukraine cannot be used in the present situation and the state of conflict, and other forms are just ignored. This research is intended to outline the existing forms and means of international peacekeeping activities, explain their compliance with the existing settlement process and propose a number of ideas to enhance the use of diplomatic tools to resolve conflict in accordance with the interests of Ukraine.

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National Security & Defence, № 021 (2001 - 09)

Author(s): Leonid Polyakov,Mykola Sungurovskiy,Mikhail Pashkov,Anatoliy. S Grytsenko,Adam Daniel Rotfeld,Vladimir Baranovsky,Renata Dwan,Jan Zielonka,Peter M.E. Volten / Language(s): English

COMMON EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY: WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE? // EUROPEAN SECURITY: NEW THREATS — OLD RESPONSES? // PROBLEMS OF EUROPEAN SECURITY: POSITIONS OF THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE // STARTING POINT // NATO-EU: EXPECTATIONS AND OUTCOMES // COMMON EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY: RUSSIA’S PERSPECTIVE // COMMON EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY: CONFCLICT PREVENTION AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT // EUROPEAN SECURITY: CONSEQUENCES OF NATO AND EU ENLARGEMENT // THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY // THE EU AS AN ACTOR IN SECURITY POLICY: RIVAL OR PARTNER OF THE USA?

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National Security & Defence, № 032 (2002 - 08)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

"NATO's-UKRAINE: MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROSPECTS FOR MUTUAL RELATIONS" INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE // NATO's open door to Ukraine interests all of Europe // As a free and sovereign country, Ukraine itself is primarily responsible for charting its course into the future // The new situation requires new thinking // To see light at the end of the tunnel // Attainment of compliance with the criteria of NATO membership is what we need above all else // From rhetorical statements to concrete steps halfway // Disasters know no borders // Do everything for our good intentions to materialise // To change the ideology of relations with NATO: from co-operation - to integration // Not a declarative but a realistic policy is needed // Ukraine's road to NATO: it is easier to pass the marathon distance together // Ukraine's future membership in NATO is a task of the national scale // The process of accession to NATO will depend on Ukraine's movement towards European standards NATO integration: economic issues // Integration of Ukraine into the European and Euro-Atlantic structures requires solution of a number of problems // To be successful, our joint work must include a sufficient investment by Ukraine of resources and personnel // Military reform and establishment of an effective system of civilian control as the preconditions for implementation of the strategy of Ukraine'’s integration to NATO // Defence reform - its time to put a theory into practice // The substance of our relations with NATO lies in raising the standard of living of Ukrainian citizens // Real integration of Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic structures depends on the internal situation // NATO-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN THE PUBLIC FOCUS

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National Security & Defence, № 052 (2004 - 04)

Author(s): Volodymyr Boiko,Mykola Melnyk,Oleksandr Chernenko,James Sherr / Language(s): English

CONTROL OF LAW ENFORCEMENT BODIES IN UKRAINE: CIVILIAN BUT UNDEMOCRATIC // 1. LEGAL FUNDAMENTALS OF DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER LAW
ENFORCEMENT BODIES // 2. THE SYSTEM OF DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER LAW
ENFORCEMENT BODIES: ITS EFFECTIVENESS AND SHORTCOMINGS // 3. ILLEGITIMATE INFLUENCE OF LAW
ENFORCEMENT BODIES ON THE ELECTION PROCESSES // 4. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // STRICT LEGAL NORMS ARE NEEDED FOR THE OPERATION OF LAW
ENFORCEMENT BODIES // THE STATE IS PLACED IN THE SERVICE OF OLIGARCHS // WE SHOULD NOT CALL FOR RUINATION, BUT CORRECTLY DETERMINE THE WAYS OF REFORM // NO LAWS WILL BE OBSERVED WITHOUT CHANGING THE PRESIDENT AND UKRAINE’S GOVERNMENT // DEMOCRATIC CONTROL IS NOT A PANACEA // THE FUNCTIONS OF NON
STATE SECURITY STRUCTURES ARE NOT LIMITED TO GUARDING // THE EXECUTIVE HIERARCHY SHOULD BE SPLIT // DEMOCRATIC CONTROL IS NOT A GOAL
IN
ITSELF // NATO AND EU ENLARGEMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR REFORM OF THE NON
MILITARY SECURITY SECTOR IN UKRAINE // EVERYONE PRETENDS THAT UKRAINE OBSERVES ITS OWN CONSTITUTION AND INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS. BUT THIS IS NOT THE CASE // JOINT EFFORTS ARE NEEDED // NOT EVERYTHING IS ALRIGHT IN THE COUNTRY

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National Security & Defence, № 056 (2004 - 08)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

MILITARY POLICY OF UKRAINE // THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF UKRAINE // UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC DEFENCE BULLETIN UNTIL 2015: BRIEF REVIEW WITH COMMENTS // UKRAINIAN DEFENCE POLICY: A CONSTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY? // DEFENCE REFORM IN UKRAINE: MOVING FORWARD OR COMING TO A STANDSTILL? // NATO INTEGRATION: MYTHICAL CHOICES AND HARD ONES // ON PRIORITIES IN BUILDING THE MILITARY // REFORM OF THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES: ASPECTS AND TRENDS // MILITARY REFORM ISSUES MILITARY ASPECTS OF UKRAINE’S CO
OPERATION WITH NATO: STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT // STATE POLICY ON APPOINTING SENIOR OFFICIALS IN THE SECURITY AND DEFENCE SECTOR // UKRAINE’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY: PROBLEM
AREAS AND DEVELOPMENT // FUNDING THE MILITARY: MAIN ISSUES // UKRAINE’S DEFENCE SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS: A LOOK FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF LOGIC AND CONSISTENCY // PERSONNEL AND TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE ARMED FORCES REFORM IN UKRAINE // PUBLIC OPINION ON THE NATIONAL DEFENCE SECTOR

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National Security & Defence, № 007 (2000 - 07)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

SECURITY: INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL ASPECTS // THE NEW WORLD ORDER IN THE 21ST CENTURY: GLOBAL STRATEGIC INVOLVEMENT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR UKRAINE // UKRAINE AND EUROPE // UKRAINE'S REGIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES // THE EUROPEAN SECURITY AGENDA AFFER KOSOVO // ECONOMIC REFORM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE // ECONOMIC REFORM IN UKRAINE: WISHES AND REALITIES // RISKS OF THE ATTRACTIVE CASPIAN OIL // EUROPEAN SECURITY AND NATO // IMPORTANT EXPERIENCE // NEW CHALLENGES TO DEFENCE DIPLOMACY // NEW CHALLENGES REQUIRE NEW APPROACHES TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY MAKING // NEW CHALLENGES AND DEFENSE ORGANIZATION REFORM // DECISION MAKING IN THE WHITE HOUSE // INTELLIGENCE AND DEMOCRACY // INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND NATIONAL SECURITY // WHO GUARDS THE GUARDIANS? // PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS: MILITARY INSIGHT // PRESENTATIONS OF THE PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS // PRIORITIES OF UKRAINE'S NATIONAL SECURITY // GEORGIA HAS ALREADY DETERMINED ITS STRATEGY... // MILITARY EDUCATION IN UKRAINE WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE HARVARD PROGRAM // SOME ASPECTS OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC SECURITY // UKRAINIAN NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM // THE BALL IS IN UKRAINE'S COURT: SOME THOUGHTS ON THE US-SPONSORED NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM // THE KNOT IN THE TRANSDNISTRIA // "LET'S WORK TOGETHER 0N A NEW SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM"

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National Security & Defence, № 009 (2000 - 09)

Author(s): Volodimir Sidenko,Jeffrey Sachs,Natalya Vitrenko,James Sherr,Viktor Budkin,Wnfried Schneider-Deters / Language(s): English

UCEPS SOCIOLOGICAL SURVEY // UKRAINE ON THE ROAD OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION // PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE'S INTEGRATION INTO THE EU // EXPANSION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION EASTWARD: CONSEQUENCES FOR UKRAINE // EASTERN EUROPE REFORMS: WHY THE OUTCOMES HAVE DIFFERED SO SHARPLY? // MACRO ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS // THE SCHENGEN AGREEMENT, EU ENLARGEMENT & EUROPEAN SECURITY // UKRAINE ON GEO-ECONOMIC CROSSROADS // UKRAINE'S ENTRY INTO WESTERN MARKETS: MAIN ISSUES // UKRAINE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST // LIST OF PUBLICATIONS BY UCEPS EXPERTS IN 2000

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National Security & Defence, № 011 (2000 - 11)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY IN UKRAINE: THE PATH FROM FORM TO SUBSTANCE // 1. DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY, ITS SUBSTANCE AND URGENCY FOR UKRAINE // 2. UKRAINE'S GAINS IN FORMING THE SYSTEM OF CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY // 3. CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY IN UKRAINE: CORRESPONDENCE TO THE EFFECTIVENESS CRITERIA // NGOs AS THE BASIS FOR CIVIL SOCIETY // CLOSED POWER STRUCTURES ARE DANGEROUS FOR SOCIETY // "90 PER CENT OF OUR SERVICEMEN ARE BUSY GUARDING THEMSELVES" // IT IS NECESSARY TO STRENGTHEN THE INFLUENCE OF CIVILIANS WITHIN POWER STRUCTURES // THE PROBLEMS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION OF SERVICEMEN // THE ARMY SHOULD SERVE THE NATION // ACTIVITIES OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY ARE TRANSPARENT FOR SOCIETY // DEFENCE MINISTRY — FOR THE EFFECTIVE CO-OPERATION WITH MASS MEDIA // HARMONISATION OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE MILITARY AND SOCIETY // THE GENERAL MILITARY INSPECTORATE WITHIN THE SYSTEM OF CIVILIAN CONTROL // CIVILIAN CONTROL IS EFFECTIVE AND ADEQUATE // THE ACTIVITIES OF POWER STRUCTURES SHOULD BE TRANSPARENT FOR SOCIETY // BORDER GUARDS — FOR THE CO-OPERATION WITH PUBLIC // TRULY DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY BARELY EMERGES IN UKRAINE // CIVILIAN CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY IS AN IMPERATIVE OF THE MOMENT

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National Security & Defence, № 018 (2001 - 06)

Author(s): Valentyn Badrak,Vitaliy Begma,Mykola Sungurovskiy,Gordon Adams,Bernardo Mariani / Language(s): English

THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXPORT CONTROL SYSTEM IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL SECURITY // EXPORT CONTROLS: EXPERIENCE OF UKRAINE DRAFT LAW OF UKRAINE // On State Control of International Transfers of Goods // Designated for Military Purposes and Dual-Use Goods // STATE CONTROL OF "SENSITIVE EXPORTS" THROUGH THE PRISM 0F ACCUSATIONS // EXPORT CONTROL IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT 0F THE WORLD EXPERIENCE // UKRAINE IN THE ASSESSMENTS OF SIPRI // NORMATIVE BASE OF EXPORT CONTROL IN UKRAINE // EXPORT CONTROLS: EXPERENCE OF WESTERN STATES // FORTRESS AMERICA IN A CHANGING TRANSATLANTIC DEFENSE MARKET AND EXPORT CONTROLS // EU CODE OF CONDUCT FOR ARMS EXPORTS // TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN EUROPEAN ARMS EXPORT CONTROLS: TOWARDS COMMON STANDARDS AND BEST PRACTICE // EXPORT CONTROLS: EXPERTENCE OF THE RUSSlAN FEDERATl0N // FEDERAL LAW ON EXPORT CONTROL

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National Security & Defence, № 027 (2002 - 03)

Author(s): Jostein Bernhardsen,Vasil Grivna,Ravil Cherdabaev,Frank Duffield,Kenneth J. Fairfax,Zuzana Princova / Language(s): English

THE EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA “GAS TRIANGLE” // 1. “GAS TRIANGLE” EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL TRENDS // 2. THE POSITIONS, INTERESTS AND PROSPECTS OF RUSSIA // 3. THE POSITIONS, INTERESTS AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE // 4. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // AMBASSADORS OF FOREIGN COUNTRIES ON THE SECURITY OF GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE // GAS TRANSIT — A CRITICAL STRATEGIC ISSUE FOR UKRAINE // PERSPECTIVES ON UKRAINE'S ROLE IN EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY // POLAND'S GAS INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL AS NEW GOVERNMENT ACTS

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National Security & Defence, № 029 (2002 - 05)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

SOME ASPECTS OF PROFESSIONALISATION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE // TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL ARMED FORCES IN UKRAINE: THE PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS // 1. FACTORS PROMPTING TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES TO MANNING ON A VOLUNTEER BASIS AND PROMOTING IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLANS OF TRANSISION // 2. FACTORS HINDERING TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKPAINE TO MANNING ON A VOLUNTEER BASIS // 3. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // A PROFESSIONAL ARMY IN UKRAINE: THE VIEWS AND ASSESSMENTS OF THE POPULATION // POSITIONS OF DOMESTIC EXPERTS // PROFESSIONAL ARMY NEEDS AN ADEQUATE FINANCING “PEOPLE'S ARMY” IS A FICTION // THE DEFENCE OF THE COUNTRY — FOR PROFESSONALS ONLY // CHANGES IN THE PROGRAMME OF COMBAT TRAINING OF THE LAND FORCES // A PROFESSIONAL ARMY REQUIRES A NEW HUMAN RESOURCES STRATEGY // ON THE PATH TOWARDS PROFESTONAL ARMED FORCES OF UKRANE // TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL ARMY REQUIRES A REFORMING OF RESERVE TRAINING SYSTEM // THE STATE OF FUNDING OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE // PROFESSIONALISM OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE: THE LEGAL ASPECT // PROFESSIONALISM OF THE ARMY: THE MYTHS AND REALITIES // POSITIONS OF FOREIGN EXPERTS // SOUTH AFRICA'S EXPERIENCE IN PROFESSIONALISATION OF THE ARMED FORCES // THE MILITARY VOLUNTARY SERVICE IN THE ARGENTINE ARMY // RESHAPING EUROPEAN ARMED FORCES FOR THE 21st CENTURY // SCENARIOS OF RUSSIAN ARMY TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL BASIS // PROFESSIONAL ARMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: “FOR” AND “AGAINST” // THE ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE IN EASTERN EUROPE: WHEN THE ARMED FORCES MEET SOCIETY // PROFESSIONALISATION: A REVISIONIST CRITIQUE // STATE PROGRAMME OF TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE TO MANNING WITH CONTRACTED SERVICEMEN

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National Security & Defence, № 041 (2003 - 05)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

“EXPORT CONTROL IN THE CONTEXT OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM” // EXPORT CONTROL TRANSFORMATION AS A COMPONENT OF THE GLOBAL SECURITY // Enhancement of transparency and responsibiliy as the key guidelines of export control development in Ukraine // The reactions on the new challenges to security // Strengthening of the control on the weapons of mass destruction and sophisticated technology — is in the global interests // Partnership assistance in improving export control system in Ukraine // Democratisation of the export control system as a part of the security sector // The development of European Union export controls // INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL EXPORT CONTROL SYSTEMS

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National Security & Defence, № 066 (2005 - 06)

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

NUCLEAR POWER IN UKRAINE: SAFETY AND DEVELOPMENT // 1. NUCLEAR POWER: UKRAINE IN THE WORLD OF THE GLOBAL TRENDS // 2. UKRAINE’S NUCLEAR SAFETY: STATE AND PROBLEMS // 3. PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE’S NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR: DECISION-MAKING ISSUES // 4. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE: THE PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT // ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY AND SOCIAL ELIGIBILITY OF NUCLEAR POWER // ON IMPROVEMENT OF THE LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY BASE FOR NPP SAFETY // DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER ENGINEERING IN UKRAINE: THE NEED, DEFICIENCIES, AND ADVANTAGES // ON THE STATE AND THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY // THE AUTHORITIES AND SOCIETY: ESTABLISHING CO-OPERATION FOR THE SAFE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY

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National Security & Defence, № 072 (2005 - 12)

Author(s): Valeriy Heyets,Ella Libanova,Viktor Lysytskyi,Oleksiy Sekarev / Language(s): English

THE NEW GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE IN 2005: A VIEW OF NON-GOVERNMENTAL THINK TANKS // SECTION 1. ECONOMIC POLICY: GAINS AND LOSSES // SECTION 2. INTERNAL POLICY. SECTION 3. SOCIAL POLICY: INTENTIONS AND RESULTS // SECTION 4. FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY // SECTION 5. THE NEW AUTHORITIES: DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC ASSESSMENTS AND EXPECTATIONS // PROGRESS IN FULFILMENT OF THE PRESIDENT’S ELECTION PROMISES // POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS // TEN THESES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY IN 2006: RISKS AND RESERVATIONS // LABOUR REMUNERATION AND PENSION ALLOWANCES IN UKRAINE // MAIN DRAWBACK IN THE WORK OF THE ORANGE TEAM // NEIGHBOURING ON ENLARGED EU: A PERSPECTIVE FROM UKRAINE’S REGIONS

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Dovedimo ih nazad: upravljanje rizikom

Author(s): Asya Metodieva / Language(s): Bosnian

Lokalni i međunarodni mediji neprestano prenose priče o ljudima koji se ne mogu vratiti kući iz sirijskih kampova nakon što su se prije nekoliko godina pridružili Islamskoj Državi (IS). Ove priče upućuju na sigurnosnu dilemu s kojom se moraju nositi evropske vlade: kako upravljati rizikom? Zabranjivanjem povratka državljana IS u domovinu i nepreuzimanjem odgovornosti za njih, ili pak njihovom repatrijacijom i krivičnim gonjenjem? I balkanske zemlje se u proteklih nekoliko godina suočavaju s istom dilemom. Preko 1000 muškaraca, žena i djece iz ove regije otputovalo je u Irak i Siriju u periodu između 2012. i 2016. godine (vidi Tabelu 1.). 1/3 je poginula, 1/3 se vratila, a 1/3 je još uvijek tamo. U februaru 2021. godine, eksperti za ljudska prava UN-a su ponovo pozvali države da izvrše repatrijaciju svojih državljana iz kampova na sjeveroistoku Sirije. Dvije godine nakon poraza “kalifata” IS u Siriji i više od tri godine nakon pada posljednje teritorije IS u Iraku, 13.500 strankinja i njihove djece i dalje su u kampovima pod kontrolom Sirijskih demokratskih snaga (SDF). U zatvorima u Siriji se nalazi i 2.000 stranih boraca. Teško je procijeniti tačan broj stranih terorističkih boraca (FTF), jer neki imaju dvojno državljanstvo, dok je nekima državljanstvo oduzeto. Među njima ima oko 60 različitih nacionalnosti. Procesuiranje stranih terorističkih boraca sa Balkana smatra se problematičnim iz više razloga. Prvi je otpor vlada prema repatrijaciji svojih državljana. Kako ne postoji međunarodni okvir koji bi propisao kako države trebaju rješavati ovo pitanje, države u regiji su zauzele individualne pristupe. Uz to, vlade u Evropi ne pokazuju politički interes za repatrijaciju svojih državljana, zbog čega su i balkanske države postale suzdržanije. Drugo, podaci o osobama koje se još uvijek nalaze u Siriji su kontradiktorni. Mnoge osobe u kampovima nemaju lične isprave: pasoše su izgubili ili sami uništili. Uz ograničene administrativne kapacitete, to znači da kurdske vlasti ne uspijevaju osigurati sveobuhvatne informacije o državljanstvima stranih terorističkih boraca. Postoji vjerovatnoća da je određeni broj pripadnika IS lagao o državama porijekla iz različitih razloga, uključujući nespremnost na repatrijaciju ili činjenicu da se više ne poistovjećuju sa svojom domovinom. Pored toga, brojna djeca su rođena u ratnoj zoni, ali još uvijek nemaju nikakvo državljanstvo. Treće, ni vlade na Balkanu nisu u stanju da osiguraju pouzdane podatke, jer imaju ograničene kapacitete za prikupljanje informacija direktno u kampovima i zatvorima. Zemlje čiji državljani se i dalje nalaze u Siriji često imaju na raspolaganju samo procjene zasnovane na podacima iz nekoliko izvora: Kurdi, američka obavještajna služba, porodice i otvoreni izvori koje dijele međunarodne organizacije koje imaju pristup kampovima. Postoje praktični, operativni i zakonski problemi, jer su brojni akteri uključeni u prikupljanje dokaza s prve linije, uključujući vojno osoblje, Komisiju za istrage Sirije, UNITAM (tim UN-a za istrage) i specijalizirane NVO. Stoga se javljaju izazovi u procesuiranju zbog nedostatka dokaza. Lokalne vlasti nemaju uvijek informacije o svakom pojedincu koji je počinio neki zločin u Siriji. Tu su i pitanja koje se tiču uspješnosti programa reintegracije i kapaciteta balkanskih zemalja za njihovu provedbu. Državne politike za borbu protiv terorizma upućuju na zatvore kao posebnu vrstu okruženja u pogledu rizika od radikalizacije, kao i mogućnosti za deradikalizaciju S jedne strane, zatvor je mjesto gdje bi osobe bez prethodnog iskustva s politički motiviranim nasiljem mogle doći u dodir sa radikalnim idejama. S druge strane, zatvor bi mogao biti mjesto za “mirnu promjenu i transformaciju”. Peter R. Neuman nabraja različite operativne svrhe zatvora, analizirajući radikalne aktere: to je mjesto gdje teroristi formiraju mreže, razvijaju strategije, uspostavljaju hijerarhije i planiraju napade. Postoje značajne razlike između država u Evropi kada se radi o procedurama i postupcima nakon puštanja ekstremističkog zatvorenika na slobodu. Nekima nedostaje integriran pristup zatvoru i probaciji.

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