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Belarusian-Ukrainian relations began to deteriorate last August when Belarus handed over to Russia - instead of Ukraine - pro-Russia mercenaries detained in Minsk who were fighting in Donbas. Ukraine has joined the EU’s sanctions regime against Belarus and the countries have enacted mutual trade restrictions. Bilateral relations are likely to deteriorate further.
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The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in its 20 years of operation has not had a lasting impact on security in Central Asia, serving mainly as a forum for political consultations between Russia and China with the countries of the region. The SCO has only to a limited extent achieved the goals assumed at its creation, including stabilisation of the region and fighting terrorism and crime. Russia and China have developed other instruments to influence the situation in Central Asia, independent from the SCO. However, the organisation is an important instrument for creating legitimacy for their policies towards the countries of the region, as well as in limiting the influence of the EU and the U.S.
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An incorrect assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and the delayed evacuation of Germanpersonnel and their associates have contributed to the decline in CDU/CSU ratings. The ChristianDemocrats’ standing is also made more difficult by the prospect of restarting the debate onmigration policy, which is still controversial within the party. Criticism of the government’sactions by the opposition during the campaign and the low popularity of Armin Laschet, theleader of the Christian Democrats, may jeopardise the party’s victory in the Bundestag electionsin September.
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Confronted with the economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU Member States decided to increase public spending which, due to low interest rates, they could finance through debt on attractive terms. These circumstances favour the calls for reform of EU fiscal rules that impose limits related to deficit and public debt. Modifications will most probably focus on making more room for growth enhancing spending (green and digital transitions, education).
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The active phase of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad 2021 exercises ended on 16 September. They were the largest manoeuvres in Russia’s western strategic direction since the collapse of the USSR. They were accompanied by hybrid actions aimed mainly at the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank, and they will continue after the manoeuvres. It was also another demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use force against the Alliance and a presentation of the high degree of interoperability of the armed forces of both countries. For NATO, the deepening military integration of Russia and Belarus requires an update of the Alliance’s defence plans and continued reinforcement of its Eastern Flank.
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The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
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Macroeconomic data for the first six months of 2023 confirm Belarus’s steadily increasing dependence on Russia. In the second year of the war, Minsk is paying a high price for its complicity in Russia’s aggression, the regime’s acts of repression targeting its opponents, and its confrontational policy towards the West. This has involved Belarus losing a major portion of its markets in the EU and Ukraine. As a consequence, Belarus’s trade in commodities with the Russian Federation already accounts for around 70% of its total trade; considering that the transport of Belarusian goods (mainly fuels and potash fertilisers) is dependent on transit through Russian ports and railways, Russia’s share in Belarusian exports now exceeds 90%.
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The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
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After the elections to the lower house of the Czech parliament on 8-9 October, the biggest political forces will be the ruling Action of the Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) led by Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, as well as two coalitions - the right-wing liberal Together and centrist-liberal PirStan. The limited coalition capabilities of ANO, the further fragmentation of the parliament, and President Miloš Zeman’s stance to favour Babiš may make the appointment of a government more difficult. After the elections, Czechia will face long coalition negotiations, which may affect the efficiency of its foreign policy.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the functioning of the single market, which has contributed to a 24% drop in intra-EU trade in second and third quarter of 2020. In addition to pre-existing barriers, the Member States introduced new, often permanent, restrictions on cross-border economic activity. In order to restore the full economic potential of the EU, including global competitiveness, in March 2020 the European Commission (EC) published a long-term action plan to strengthen the single market. However, growing protectionism of the Member States poses challenge for implementing this concept.
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China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
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The likely finalisation of a contract between the government of Mali and the private military company (PMC) known as the Wagner Group threatens the future of the EU’s military cooperation with this country. The Wagner Group’s engagement in Mali would be another major intervention by the PMC on the continent. The deployment of these informal Russian forces will not resolve the jihadist threat, but would help Russia present itself as an alternative to the West in Africa.
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On 5 October, the minority government of the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians (UDMR) of Prime Minister Florin Ciţu, received a vote of no confidence. The appointment of a new stable government is uncertain. This political crisis has weakened Romania’s capabilities to tackle COVID-19 and could hamper the implementation of the Next Generation EU recovery plan. The prospect of a series of unstable governments will hinder the structural reforms on which Romanian membership in the Schengen area depends, as well as cooperation with foreign partners.
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This September, the Russian government supported a request from Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil company, to allow it to export natural gas via the Gazprom-owned Nord Stream 2 (NS2), which is not yet operational. President Vladimir Putin will make the ultimate decision. However, the EU law requiring access to NS2 for shippers other than Gazprom means that it is possible that the Kremlin will try to allow such limited competition. In practice, it would mean that NS2 is used by only two companies controlled by the Kremlin, which would not comport to EU law. Such a scenario, however, would signal the growing influence of Rosneft’s head, Igor Sechin, on the Russian and international political scenes.
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In 2021, Lithuania revised its policy towards China, including withdrawing from the “17+1” initiative and tightening relations with Taiwan. In response, China withdrew its ambassador to Lithuania, accused the country of succumbing to U.S. influence, and restricted Lithuanian companies’ access to its market. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are trying to neutralise the impact of Lithuania’s influence in the EU. It is in the Union’s interest to support Lithuania in its dispute with China, as well as to further develop economic relations with Taiwan, including the diversification of supply chains.
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The Hungarian government’s actions, especially in the field of energy, fit with Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy aimed at weakening Western structures. Its influence on Hungary is deepening in the political, economic, and social dimensions. Both the Hungarian perception of international relations and the view of Russia as a politically neutral economic partner, as well as the benefits it brings for this country, are contrary to the interests of Poland, the V4, NATO, and the EU.
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The September and October 2021 rulings of the Court of Justice of the EU indicate that the court is consistently aiming to put an end to the practice of arbitration proceedings between EU investors and Member States. Like the European Commission, it considers the practice to be contrary to EU law. Its rulings create an opportunity to limit compensation payments to EU investors by Member States, including Poland. However, the Commission will strive to create alternative solutions to protect foreign investments.
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Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.
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In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
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Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
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