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Nord Stream 2 and the Biden Presidency

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The German government hopes that the Biden administration will weaken the sanctions against Nord Stream 2 (NS2). German diplomacy is pushing to win U.S. acceptance of NS2’s completion and launch. Biden is faced with a dilemma: while he is critical of the pipeline, he also seeks closer relations with American allies, including Germany. Some kind of concessions cannot be completely ruled out but they will be difficult, not least because of the bipartisan opposition to NS2 in Congress.

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Romania’s Relations with Ukraine: Cooperation Despite an Impasse

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Since 2017, there has been an impasse in Romanian-Ukrainian relations caused by a bill limiting the language rights of national minorities in Ukraine, including Romanians. However, due to the fear of Russia’s aggressive policy in the Black Sea basin and despite negligible political contacts, the countries are developing defence and energy cooperation. Poland’s interest is in strengthening relations between Romania and Ukraine because it would have a positive impact on regional cooperation and the development of the Eastern Partnership.

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Ukrainian Energiewende: German Engagement in Ukraine’s Energy Transition

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Germany is the country most strongly involved in the transition of Ukraine’s energy sector. It is promoting its Energiewende concept in Ukraine, which involves a shift from coal and nuclear power to renewable energy sources (RES) in order to create a market for German companies in this sector. Germany may use its engagement in Ukraine in negotiations with the U.S. over lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Poland, together with the U.S., can promote an alternative, cheaper model of energy transition in Ukraine based on the simultaneous development of nuclear energy, natural gas, and RES.

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Late Start and a Slow Pace: Vaccinations Against COVID-19 in Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s problems with obtaining vaccines have made it one of the last countries in Central and Eastern Europe to start vaccinating its citizens. Delays in deliveries and logistical problems will make this process slower than in most European countries. As a result, Ukraine will have one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe for a long time. This will force the Ukrainian authorities to maintain economic restrictions for longer than in other countries in the region, which may result in a decrease in support for President Volodymyr Zelensky and the ruling party in the coming months.

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India’s Vaccine Diplomacy: Fighting the Pandemic and for Status in the World

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

India is becoming a leader in so-called vaccine diplomacy in the world. The extensive distribution of vaccines as grants and commercially to other countries, combined with the reduction of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, will increase India’s prestige and influence. The possible build-up of its production capacity will be important to the success of the global vaccination campaign, including the implementation of the COVAX programme. This should lead the EU to strengthen cooperation with India in the fight against the pandemic and other global health threats, which will become an important area of their strategic partnership.

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The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.

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“Trumpism”, the Long-Term Future of the Republican Party?

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

A lost presidency, the loss of the Senate majority, Trump’s attempts to challenge the election results, and his role in the Capitol riots on 6 January seem not to have dimmed the cooperation between the Republican Party and the former president. As a party, Republicans mostly rely on Trump and the pillars of his policy - “Trumpism”. Trump will strive to cement his position as the obvious candidate in the 2024 primaries, which may make Trumpism not a temporary phenomenon but one with a long-lasting impact on the Republican agenda, including in U.S. foreign and security policy.

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Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski / Language(s): English

No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.

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Przygotowania władz Rosji do wyborów parlamentarnych

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjskie władze przygotowują się do wrześniowych wyborów do Dumy Państwowej, spodziewając się trwałego wzrostu niezadowolenia społecznego. By utrzymać kontrolę nad kampanią i procesem wyborczym, inicjują powstanie koncesjonowanych partii opozycyjnych. Rozbudowują także instrumenty represji wobec krytyków władz, co stanie się tendencją systemu rosyjskiego przed wyborami prezydenckimi w 2024 r.

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The European Green Deal: On the Way to EU Climate Neutrality

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The announcement of the European Green Deal (EGD) by the head of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, came just before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the global crisis not only affected the Commission’s plans but gave additional impetus to the European climate transformation. In 2021, the EC is expected to move from strategic thinking on the EGD to ambitious action. Success will depend on the Commission’s capacity to reconcile the interests of all Member States, including those for whom the implementation of the EGD constitutes a challenge in the short term.

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The Future of Russia’s Sovereign Internet

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

So-called “sovereign internets”, which are networks cut off from the global internet, is attractive to authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran. Russia declares that it has achieved the technical capacity to implement it, which would allow the Russian authorities more control over society but could cause problems for business. The Russian authorities therefore will limit its use to a preventive measure at key moments and for blocking foreign networks and communicators inside Russia to try to control public moods in the country.

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The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.

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The EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean: Towards a Digital and Green Economy

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The revision of EU policy towards its southern neighbourhood focuses on supporting green and digital transformations in order to boost the economic development of this region. However, the proposed solutions may bring limited results due to structural problems and the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. To increase the effectiveness of this policy, the EU can strengthen local actors. Poland can promote the good practices of the Eastern Partnership in this regard.

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CEPA as a Model of Cooperation: The Example of EU-Armenia Relations

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

The Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which entered into force on 1 March 2021, is the basis of the bilateral relations between the EU and Armenia in the framework of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). Since Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), CEPA differs from the typical Association Agreements (AA) concluded by the EU with EaP countries Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova in 2014. Although CEPA has been designed to allow for the simultaneous integration of a partner within the EAEU and cooperation with the EU, it is unlikely to be used by other members of the former organisation, such as Belarus.

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The Prospect of Tighter Cooperation: Slovakia on the New U.S. Administration

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

While U.S.-Slovakia relations strengthened during the presidency of Donald Trump, the change of government in the United States is conducive to expanding bilateral cooperation, in part because of a similar view by the new authorities in both countries on the role of values in international relations. The Slovak government wants to participate in the traditional pillar of joint actions, defence - , along with innovation and fighting corruption. However, bilateral relations still will be influenced by Slovak policy towards Russia and China.

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Prospects for Russia’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The priority of Russia’s policy towards the Caucasus is to maintain influence on the countries of the region, primarily through military instruments. Russia is striving to establish control over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) using methods similar to the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which will enable the Russian peacekeepers to remain in the NK after 2025. The EU and NATO’s priority in the Caucasus should be to counter Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey, which may limit the EU’s instruments in the region and adversely affect NATO cohesion.

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Russia’s Flailing EU Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The poisoning and subsequent arrest and conviction of oppositionist Alexei Navalny worsened the already tense Russia-EU relations. Although the EU remains Russia’s most important trading partner, the EU’s support for democratic values is a challenge for the ruling power elite in Russia. As a consequence of the international criticism of Russia by Western countries and the internal protests related to Navalny and other issues, relations between Russia and the EU will coarsen.

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Walking the Line: France’s Dilemma in Relations with China

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron believes that France’s importance in global politics depends on maintaining correct relations with all major states, including China. This concept includes support for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) and a reluctance to side with the U.S. in its disputes with China. The Chinese authorities see the French ambitions as an opportunity to loosen transatlantic ties and increase Chinese influence in the EU. Their increasing interference in France’s internal affairs, however, may lead Macron to adopt a more resolute stance.

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India’s Climate Policy: From Lagging Behind to Leading the Way

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Mounting a globally effective fight against climate change requires the participation of India, the fourth largest CO2 emitter in the world. Its position in climate negotiations has evolved from a state blocking ambitious solutions to a leader in combating climate change. More ambitious climate action, including a zero-net emissions target, requires international support and better access to capital and technology for the green and just transition. This is set to be a key area of the EU-India partnership. Poland can enhance cooperation in this field and join the Indian-led International Solar Alliance.

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Syria: The End of Isolation? Arab States Seek to Normalise Relations

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In February, the Arab League (AL) re-opened the offices of one of its agencies in Syria, thus resuming activity in that country for the first time since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Most Arab states are now seeking to normalise relations with the Assad regime and criticise sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU against Syria, putting pressure on them to lift the restrictions. This position is conducive to the efforts of some EU countries, in particular Italy, which hosts a large number of Syrian refugees, to improve relations with Assad. This may contribute to a lack of consensus on EU policy towards Syria.

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