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Omicron: No Global Solidarity on the Pandemic

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Immediately after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a new coronavirus “variant of concern” called omicron on 26 November, more than 50 countries blocked travel to and from South Africa and neighbouring countries. WHO, African states, and the UN Secretary-General have accused the rich northern states of the selective use of inadequate measures that harm southern countries. To end the pandemic, it will be necessary to reduce the growing discrepancy between the northern and southern states through a solidarity-based approach to the fight against COVID-19.

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More Obstacles to Ratification of the EU-Mercosur Agreement

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement, negotiated in June 2019, has been delayed further. The Union is conditioning ratification of the deal on an additional agreement on sustainable development because of its reservations about Brazil’s policy in this area. The situation is complicated by the divergence in Mercosur regarding the bloc’s development course, especially in the face of the economic difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The delay in ratification erodes the EU’s position in the region and the possibility of the deal as a counterweight to China - Mercosur’s main trading partner.

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Priorities of the New Lithuanian Government

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

On 11 December 2020, a new Lithuanian government was sworn in. It is formed of the conservative Union of the Homeland–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and two liberal parties. The differences within the coalition, including on the economy, will be a challenge, however, there are no fundamental differences in the external dimension. Lithuania will focus on the alliance with the U.S. and on European politics. The government has announced actions in the eastern dimension and in strengthening cooperation in the Baltic Sea region. Poland will remain an important partner for Lithuania, but the intensity of the cooperation to date may be limited.

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The Clean Network Initiative as an Element of the U.S.-China Competition

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Fearing China’s global dominance in the field of information and communications technology (ICT), including high-capacity 5G telecommunications networks, and the country’s access to new markets, in August 2020 the U.S. launched the Clean Network Initiative (CN). The coalition of states, institutions, and companies participating in it aims to prevent Chinese ICT from dominating the economies of America’s allies. The U.S. may determine the future level of cooperation with allies on the degree of saturation of their economies and infrastructure with Chinese technologies.

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UK Policy towards Russia

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

The UK has a two-pronged policy towards Russia: deterrence and containment, and limited dialogue. The improvement of relations is hampered by divergent positions on the war in eastern Ukraine and the crisis in Belarus, as well as Russia’s aggressive actions such as the chemical attack on British territory and cyberattacks. The UK will continue to insist on respect for international law, which will be a condition of any change in its position towards Russia. It is in Poland’s interests to work closely with the British, for example in increasing the defence capabilities of NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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Perspectives on the Future of U.S.-India Relations during Biden’s Presidency

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden is likely to continue U.S. policy of deepening the strategic partnership with India. The growing international importance of the world’s largest democracy, and especially the similarities in assessments of China’s policy, make it a key U.S. partner in Indo-Pacific. Possible tensions around, for example, India’s observance of human rights and democratic standards should not jeopardise the bilateral cooperation, which is based on a convergence of strategic and economic interests. This creates favourable conditions for strengthening Poland’s relations with India and will facilitate joint initiatives by the EU, the U.S., and India.

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NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.

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Franco-British Relations after Brexit

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The French government hopes that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) concluded on 24 December 2020 between the EU and the United Kingdom will open a new chapter in bilateral relations. Although the two countries may differ in trade competition and their visions of transatlantic relations, the UK is an indispensable partner of France in global politics and world security. With Brexit, discussions about the future of the EU will no longer significantly burden British-French relations.

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No Rush: Germany’s Attitude towards the Enlargement of the Euro Area

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Germany is cautious about boosting the eurozone enlargement process, pointing to economic weakness or a lack of political will on the part of the candidates. A more important reason, however, may be the intention to complete the reforms of the currency area - not easily reconciled with enlargement. Germany’s calculations are also influenced by the belief that after Brexit, the division of the EU into the euro area and countries sceptical about deepening integration ceases to be significant politically.

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Towards Authoritarianism: Kyrgyzstan’s Internal and Foreign Policy Perspectives

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Sadyr Japarov, the leader of the autumn protests that led to the removal from power of the previous president, Soronbai Jeenbekov, won the early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 January. In a parallel consultative referendum, voters supported the change of the state system to the presidential system proposed by Japarov, which includes the liquidation of parliament. One consequence may be the evolution of the political system of Kyrgyzstan towards an authoritarian model similar to those in other Central Asian countries. That would have a negative impact on relations with the EU, which supports democratic reforms in Kyrgyzstan.

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“Change Creates Stability”: The Political Programme of the German Greens

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The Greens’ election success and public opinion polls indicate that the party has a chance to increase its representation in regional authorities and to join the federal government after the elections in 2021. This scenario may be helped by the adoption of a new political programme aimed at winning centrist voters. Co-creation of the government by the Greens could contribute to the tightening of Germany’s policy towards Russia and greater readiness to deepen European integration.

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Agreement in the GCC in Light of Joe Biden's Victory

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In early January, the “quartet states” (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt) announced the opening of borders and the restoration of full relations with Qatar, ending the blockade which started in 2017. The mitigation of the dispute is intended to show that the monarchies in the Persian Gulf are not the main factor destabilising the region. It is motivated, among other things, by declarations by the new U.S. administration to return human rights and democratic values to its foreign policy agenda, and to revisit the nuclear deal with Iran.

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China and the Crisis in the “17+1” Initiative

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The summit of the leaders of the “17+1” format, postponed from 2020, was held on 9 February. The Chinese authorities blame the U.S. for the crisis in the initiative but it is mainly the result of a lack of a substantial Chinese offer to its participants. China will not give up the multilateral dimension of cooperation within the “17+1” framework, but will focus on closer cooperation with selected partners, such as Hungary and Serbia. Poland’s promotion of transatlantic interests and the EU’s assertive approach to China will deepen the differences in Polish-Chinese relations. This may lead Poland to consider leaving the initiative.

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South Korea’s Growing Economic Involvement in Southeast Asia

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The development of South Korea’s economic cooperation with ASEAN countries is a manifestation of the deepening diversification of its trade and investments. South Korea is trying to reduce its dependence on its main economic partners - China, the U.S. and Japan - after much tension in trade in recent years. Its turn to Southeast Asia may accelerate as a result of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the EU, this means both greater competition for European companies in ASEAN and an impulse to review the effectiveness of the free trade agreement with South Korea.

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Russia’s Problems in the Vaccine Race

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English

In August 2020, Russia was the first country in the world to register a COVID-19 vaccine. Its production capacity, however, is much more limited than those of China, Western European countries, or the U.S. As a result, its ambitious plans for domestic vaccination and global sales will be constrained, forcing it to miss out on anticipated profits and harming its goal of international prestige as a main supplier of a COVID-19 vaccine.

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Closing Ranks: Finland and Nordic Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Finland aims to ensure that the N5, the group of Nordic countries, will form the most integrated region in the world by 2030. This is part of Finland’s foreign and security policy response to the changing operating environment involving global challenges, problems with EU cohesion on basic issues, and the deteriorated security situation in the immediate vicinity of the country. To achieve this goal, Finland will use Nordic cooperation platforms, including the Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM), the work of which the country coordinates in 2021.

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The EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime: Prospects and Challenges

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The European “Magnitsky Act” adopted by the EU is a political signal that the Union wants to protect human rights in the world more effectively. It fixes the scope of sanctions application in this field, but it does not fundamentally change existing EU practices. Still, the challenges lie in the adoption of sanctions listings by a unanimous decision of the Member States and their subsequent effective implementation. The new system will be used for the first time to impose restrictions on those responsible for the detention of Alexei Navalny in Russia. It may also be used in cases of human rights violations in China or on the territory of conflict areas in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region.

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Policy Prospects of the Biden Administration towards Israel and Palestine

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

While the Biden administration will backtrack on some of the Trump administration’s decisions, it will maintain the traditional stance in U.S. policy towards Israel and Palestine. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. will be committed to improving the situation of the Palestinians, but probably will not submit its own peace plan, preferring ad hoc diplomatic actions.

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The Missile Threat from North Korea and the U.S. Homeland Defence

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since 2012, North Korea has been progressing with different types of long-range ballistic missiles and their successful tests of them are a determinant in the U.S. missile defence plans for the continental United States, Hawaii, and overseas territories. One of most important recommended solutions by the Pentagon to these growing threats is the concept of a “layered” approach to homeland missile defence. The Joe Biden administration is expected to comprehensively review the concept and any actions would have a distinct effect on U.S. deterrence of North Korea and bilateral relations with China and Russia. It also will be important also for American allies in Europe.

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Artemis Accords: Towards New Rules for the Exploitation of Space

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The Artemis Accords proposed by the U.S. are intended to develop new rules for the peaceful use of space, especially in terms of the extraction of mineral resources. However, the shape of some of the solutions will only be definitively established in practice. The degree of international acceptance will determine the success of the agreement, but is uncertain because of the reluctance of China and Russia to criticise the initiative as a unilateral imposition of standards by the U.S. For Poland, which is involved in NASA programmes and interested in closer bilateral cooperation with the space agency, joining the agreement may prove beneficial.

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