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The Truss Government Falls - the Fastest in British History

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned on 20 October after just seven weeks in office. In that short time, there were numerous conflicts within the ruling Conservative Party. The neoliberal economic vision of the Tories’ right wing also failed. The procedure for selecting a new prime minister will be significantly simplified and is expected to be completed within a week due to the budget statement scheduled for the last day of October.

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A Government of Many Compromises - Meloni Becomes Prime Minister of Italy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Formed from the Centre-Right coalition, Italy’s incoming government led by Giorgia Meloni received a vote of confidence from the Italian Chamber of Deputies (25 October) and the Senate (26 October). Although Meloni emphasised in her exposé the unambiguously political nature of her cabinet, in contrast to the cross-party government of Mario Draghi, Italy's difficult financial situation will force a conciliatory policy towards the EU and a softening of her controversial agenda in domestic politics. The sustainability of the coalition is also uncertain, as put to the test by the ambitions of League leader Matteo Salvini and by Silvio Berlusconi's statements, troublesome for the country’s image.

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Sunak Government Is the Tories’ Last Chance

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

On 25 October, King Charles III entrusted Rishi Sunak, the new leader of the Conservative Party, which has been governing Britain since 2010, the mission of creating a new government. Like the previous Truss cabinet, the new one takes power in the face of the most serious crises in several decades: a weaker economy and threats to European security. In response to these challenges and in the face of the historically low levels of public support for his party, Sunak appointed to his cabinet representatives of all major Tory factions.

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U.S. Votes in the Midterms - Results and Consequences

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Initial results of the midterm elections to the U.S. Congress indicate that the Republican Party will take control of the House of Representatives. It may be uncertain until early December whether Republicans will be able to take control of the Senate. Losing control of even one chamber of Congress could make it difficult for President Joe Biden to implement his major initiatives in the next two years in office. However, the election is seen primarily as a failure for Republican candidates backed by Donald Trump.

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European Council President Visits Beijing

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The first direct meeting between Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, and the China’s Chairman Xi Jinping, which took place on 1 December in Beijing, does not mean there will be an improvement in EU-China relations. Both sides presented a catalogue of differences on various issues, but emphasised the need for cooperation. China’s policy goal is still to weaken the cooperation between the EU and the U.S., as well as convincing the EU of China’s readiness to act to end the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The president of the European Council referred positively to strengthening cooperation, but emphasized that there are contentious issues concerning, among others, the assessment of trade issues and Russia’s policies.

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The New British Government Faces a Perfect Storm

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The UK’s new government of the Conservative Party under the leadership of Liz Truss formed on 6 September and began operating in the most difficult socio-economic conditions in several decades on top of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Although its programme is based on the 2019 election manifesto commissioned by Boris Johnson, the first decisions of the Truss government indicate a significant revision of the climate-change and economic policies of its predecessor and a high probability of aggravating disputes with the EU.

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What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

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Assumptions of U.S. Policy Towards China - Defence of the International Order Rather than Regime Change

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

On 26 May, Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented the assumptions of U.S. policy towards China. He described that country’s actions, above all its ambitions and real possibilities of changing the international order, as the main, long-term challenge to the global order. The way to deal with the challenges China presents, he argued, is to strengthen the U.S. potential, especially its competitiveness and innovation, along with cooperation with allies and partners primarily from Europe and Asia to effectively compete with China.

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Who will be the Next UK Prime Minister?

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

On 20 July, Conservative MPs selected Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak as candidates for the party’s new leader and, consequently, the next British prime minister. This opens the second phase of the election of the successor to Boris Johnson, when all party members vote for one candidate, and allows the identification of future challenges for the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU and Poland.

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Perspectives after the First Round of the Presidential Election in France

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

The results of the first round of the presidential election in France on 10 April came in as expected. Emmanuel Macron took first place with 27.9% of the vote (9.8 million votes). Marine Le Pen managed to convince more than 8 million voters to back her, gaining 23.2% of the total vote. This secured her ballot in the second round on 24 April when she will face the incumbent president. Voter turnout was higher than expected and amounted to almost 75%. Macron’s success in the voting will be determined by his appeal to the left-wing electorate and opening his electoral programme to social issues.

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Crisis of Democracy in Tunisia

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 25 July, Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and assumed full executive power. This is the most serious political crisis in the country since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. The president’s actions may interrupt the democratisation of Tunisia, which will require a reformulation of EU policy towards this country.

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Vaccination First - New Anti-COVID Rules in France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The July surge in infections of the Delta variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus in France prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce new restrictions, which this time mainly affect unvaccinated people. Although the extension of the obligation to present a health pass when using services, included in the amendment to the health bill adopted on 25 July, has sparked protests, polls show that the majority of the public supports the new regulations. The priority of the French authorities is to avoid a new lockdown in the autumn as it would threaten the recovery of the economy and Macron’s re-election.

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Taliban Victory in Afghanistan: Internal and International Consequences

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

On 15 August, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. After President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, current and former Afghan politicians formed a Transition Council and started negations with the Taliban on the formation of a new government.

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The Consequences of the Taliban Victory in Afghanistan for U.S. Policy

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 15 August, after a lightning-fast military offensive, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. The decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan contributed to the Taliban’s rapid success. The Trump administration had negotiated an agreement with the insurgents, leading President Biden - contrary to the recommendations of military commanders to maintain some forces - decided to stick to the agreed timetable. However, the speed with which the Afghan government and security forces collapsed has undermined the prestige of the United States. The situation in Afghanistan will be used by politicians from the Republican Party in the campaigns ahead of the Congressional elections next fall.

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New Negotiations to Resolve the Crisis in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

On 13 August in Mexico, delegations from the government of Nicolás Maduro and Unified Platform of four main Venezuelan opposition parties, signed a memorandum on new talks. The success of this fifth attempt since 2014 to overcome the multidimensional crisis in Venezuela will depend in particular on government concessions, which will be influenced by the U.S. and the EU’s readiness to lift sanctions, among other factors.

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Putin’s United Russia Party Named Winner of the Russian Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

After three days of voting in parliamentary elections in Russia, the ruling United Russia was declared the winner on 19 September. The course of the campaigns, the manipulation of the voting, and a crackdown on opposition candidates testify to the intensification of authoritarian rule in Russia.

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Bundestag Elections - An SPD Victory and the Subtle Charm of Coalition Negotiations

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany won the Bundestag elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, it does not mean the Social Democrats will lead the government - CDU/CSU still can form a new coalition after it took 24.1%. Any coalition will most likely include the Greens (14.8%) and FDP (11.5%). With the participation of as many as three parties in the negotiations, Germany’s next government may not be formed until the turn of 2021 to 2022.

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Military Coup in Sudan

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.

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The Japanese Government after Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

The 31 October elections to Japan’s House of Representatives brought another victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), run by new leader and prime minister Kishida Fumio. The new government will continue to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and emphasise Japan’s cooperation within the QUAD group on the Indo-Pacific, while trying to maintain proper relations with China.

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U.S. Senate Runoff Election and Capitol Riots

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Both Democratic candidates for the United States Senate in the run-off elections in Georgia won. With the vice-presidency, the Democrats have gained a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This will make it less likely that the Republican Party can block the incoming president's legislative initiatives and appointments to the administration. During the certification of the presidential election by a joint chamber of Congress, participants in a rally in support of President Donald Trump broke through police lines and into the Capitol. Four people died in the riots. After nearly seven hours, the deliberations resumed, and Congress certified the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States.

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