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№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author(s): John Todd / Language(s): English

The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

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№124: A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The economic crisis led the eurozone to become a more deeply integrated area. The redesign of its institutional architecture significantly changes the perception of the costs and benefits of the membership of the zone. In this regard, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) are reassessing the effects of eurozone accession, by reviewing the set of arguments for and against further integration. The overall result of this review is still in favour of further integration, but successful accession requires comprehensive preparations from the candidates.

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№125: The Evolution of U.S. Immigration Policy: Implications for Poland

Author(s): Piotr Plewa / Language(s): English

Over the course of the last 50 years, migration to the United States has transformed from Europeanto Latin American, and predominantly Mexican. Increased legal migration from Latin America has beencoupled with increased unauthorised entries from the region. The major challenges facing U.S.policymakers concern their ability to prevent unauthorised entries and the repatriation or integration ofthose already in the country. With decreased legal and unauthorised immigration rates, Poland has lostthe potential to affect U.S. migration policymaking. Hence, it is worthwhile to assess whether thelimited benefits stemming from visa-free travel to the U.S. would justify the increase in invested politicalcapital required to secure one of Poland’s traditional foreign policy goals.

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№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

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№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Both Norway and Poland have engaged in regional security and defence cooperation projects:NORDEFCO and the Visegrad Group (V4), respectively. Such initiatives are seen as a promisingmethod for reinforcing military capabilities in a time of deep cuts in defence budgets among the EUMember States. The record of NORDEFCO and the V4 remains, though, rather modest, particularlywhen compared to the ambitious declarations made at their beginnings. Both cooperation formatshave proved effective with regards to less-complicated projects, such as those involving militaryeducation, training or logistics. However, common procurement and real integration in some capabilityareas has turned out to be too difficult. Yet, these failures have helped to identify factors that maymake success more likely, and this result is shared by both NORDEFCO and the V4, despite thestructural differences between these two mechanisms of security governance.

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№128: Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Turkey’s decision to open Incirlik airbase to the anti-IS coalition could offer a significant advantage inthe fight against the Islamic State, including cutting it off from outside supplies, and changing theregional parameters. However, statements from the U.S. and Turkey still contradict each other, andtheir divergent priorities could hamper their operational capacity. Turkey’s contribution to the coalitionmay potentially reduce cooperation between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) inthe anti-IS zone. In addition, the absence of a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK) and the domestic polarisation provide a permissible environment for potential provocationsthat may escalate the violence in Turkey, potentially diminishing its contribution. The U.S. and Turkeystill have to overcome their differences in order to become effective coalition partners.

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№129: The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found anally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe,speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthennational parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes orare merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanismsof inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would playvery well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it alsorequires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to bethe missing link.

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№130: Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Although it happens rarely, national governments, including those of EU countries, do sometimes hire foreign experts. In Ukraine, employing Georgians from former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration seems to be a logical move. His presidency’s biggest successes were the establishment of well-functioning police and an efficient fight against corruption, something both of which Ukraine badly needs. Other foreigners, including renowned experts such as Ukrainian American Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavičius, responsible for economic recovery, may be successful but face extremely difficult tasks. As all these figures are affiliated with the West in one way or another, their failure would be interpreted by pro-Kremlin media as a collapse of President Petro Poroshenko’s policies (perceived by Russia as a Western project).

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№131: The EU’s New Climate Target: Contribution to a Successful Deal in Paris

Author(s): Susanne Dröge,Thomas Spencer,Alexandra Deprez,Liz Gallagher,Artur Gradziuk,Andrei Marcu,Sebastian Oberthür / Language(s): English

In the run up to the Paris climate negotiations, the multilateral community has decided that all countriesshould submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The INDCs represent eachcountry’s contribution to the collective effort against climate change....

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№132: Is Three a Crowd? The Kurds, Baghdad and Poland

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The diplomatic conflict that exists between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdish RegionalGovernment impacts relations of both authorities at the international diplomatic level. As the case ofPolish-Iraqi relations demonstrates, meaningful and effective involvement with the KRG is obstructedand sometimes impossible because of the ongoing Baghdad-Erbil conflict and the continuous possibilityof the KRG seceding from Iraq. With the dynamics of Iraq changing post Maliki, it is important forthese diplomatic relations to change accordingly, both internally and externally, in order to protect theterritorial integrity of Iraq.

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№135: AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has giventhe impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has beenemploying a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snapelection. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging themain Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and haveresulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKPaims to win power in the next election at all costs.

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№137: EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.

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№139: Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance insupport of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Althoughmost of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to beset in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improvecoordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), whilethe Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reforms as a matterof urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focuson the most urgent needs.

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№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly aproper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance inDonbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assumethat military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed torepel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in adisadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and socialturmoil in Ukraine. To minimise the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S.should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and upholdthe Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the restof Ukraine.

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№141: Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author(s): Victoria Bucătaru,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.

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№142: Australia’s Asylum and Migration Policy: Lessons to Apply to the European Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Australia has a long history of immigration, including accepting refugees. Over the years, it has developed mechanisms and instruments that aim not only to help people in need but also to provide for the country’s stability and prosperity. However, in recent years some elements of Australia’s refugee policy, especially its approach towards the so-called boat people, have come under fire. Nevertheless, the solutions implemented by Australia should be part of the EU’s efforts to find ones useful for dealing with its current migration crisis.

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№143: Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.

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№144: The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.

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№145: Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.

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№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.

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