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№ 06 RE-ENERGISING EUROPE’S SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY

Author(s): Nick Witney / Language(s): English

Ten years after the launch of the EU’s defence effort at a Franco-British summit in St Malo, the European Security and Defence Policy badly needs a shot in the arm. Procrastination, weak coordination, and persistent absenteeism by some Member States have hobbled the Union’s ability to tackle the real threats to its citizens’ security, and to make a significant contribution to maintaining international peace. Europe’s leaders have agreed what is needed, in the 2003 European Security Strategy. They have acknowledged that security for Europeans today lies not in manning the ramparts or preparing to resist invasion, but in tackling crises abroad before they become breeding-grounds for terrorism, international trafficking, and unmanageable immigration flows. As this report will argue, this situation demands a concerted effort to revitalise the European Union’s Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The EU’s individual Member States, even France and Britain, have lost and will never regain the ability to finance all the necessary new capabilities by themselves. Today, only cooperation amongst Europeans can eliminate the massive waste associated with the duplication of resources by Member States, and help transform Europe’s armed forces into modern militaries capable of contributing to global security.

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№ 08 A GLOBAL FORCE FOR HUMAN RIGHTS? AN AUDIT OF EUROPEAN POWER AT THE UN

Author(s): Richard Gowan,Franziska Brantner / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) is suffering a slow-motion crisis at the United Nations (UN). The problem is not a lack of internal cohesion, which has improved markedly since the nadir of the Iraq War. The problem is fading power to set the rules of the game. The EU’s members insist that the UN is central to their vision of international order and universal human rights – but the UN is increasingly being shaped by China, Russia and their allies. This paradox has come to the fore in 2008 as the EU has tried to work through the UN on Burma and Zimbabwe, yet been unable to get Security Council resolutions for action. These defeats come on top of previous setbacks for the EU at the UN in cases from Kosovo to Darfur. This is partially due to geopolitical shifts. But this report shows that the EU has also been the architect of its own misfortune. Europe has lost ground because of a reluctance to use its leverage, and a tendency to look inwards – with 1,000 coordination meetings in New York alone each year – rather than talk to others. It is also weakened by a failure to address flaws in its reputation as a leader on human rights and multilateralism. If Europe can no longer win support at the UN for international action on human rights and justice, overriding national sovereignty in extreme cases, it will have been defeated over one of its deepest convictions about international politics as a whole. This is particularly true in cases involving the Responsibility to Protect against genocide and mass atrocities, when the humanitarian consequences of inaction are most severe.

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№ 12 A POWER AUDIT OF EU-CHINA RELATIONS

Author(s): John Fox,François Godement / Language(s): English

Europe’s approach to China is stuck in the past. China is now a global power: decisions taken in Beijing are central to virtually all the EU’s pressing global concerns, whether climate change, nuclear proliferation, or rebuilding economic stability. China’s tightly controlled economic and industrial policies strongly affect the EU’s economic wellbeing. China’s policies in Africa are transforming parts of a neighbouring continent whose development is important to Europe. Yet the EU continues to treat China as the emerging power it used to be, rather than the global force it has become. A “power audit” we have conducted shows that the 27 EU Member States are split over two main issues: how to manage China’s impact on the European economy and how to engage China politically. We assigned scores to Member States’ individual policies and actions towards China, and the chart overleaf translates this evaluation on to a horizontal axis for politics and a vertical axis for economics.

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№ 14 THE LIMITS OF ENLARGEMENT-LITE: EUROPEAN AND RUSSIAN POWER IN THE TROUBLED NEIGHBOURHOOD

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Over the past year, war in Georgia, the Ukrainian gas crisis and the burning of the Moldovan parliament have all dominated the front pages of European newspapers. But behind the headlines the story is just as bleak: politics in the “neighbourhood” is a toxic mixture of authoritarianism and stalled democracy, ongoing secessionist tensions continue to stoke fears of violent conflict, and the economic crisis is wreaking havoc throughout the region. The implications for the EU are profound. Renewed hostilities or economic collapse could see an influx of immigrants into eastern Member States. Several banks in western Member States are exposed to the imploding economies in the east. But beyond these immediate dangers, there is an emerging contest between the EU and Russia over the political rules that are to govern the neighbourhood. Since the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine, Russia has been working tirelessly to draw the countries of the region into its sphere of influence while the EU has continued to pursue a technocratic strategy best described as “enlargement-lite” – offering the neighbourhood states the prospect of eventual political and economic alignment with the EU while dampening down any hopes of actual accession.

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№ 16 THE LIMITS OF ENLARGEMENT-LITE: EUROPEAN AND RUSSIAN POWER IN THE TROUBLED NEIGHBOURHOOD

Author(s): / Language(s): English

INTRODUCTION What does Russia think? (by Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard and Andrew Wilson, pp. 1-13) THE “PUTIN CONSENSUS ”The “Putin consensus” Explained (by Vyacheslav Glazychev, pp.9-14) The School of Consensus and the War of the Majority (by Modest Kolerov, pp. 15-20) An Ideological Self-Portrait of the Russian Regime (by Leonid Polyakov, pp. 21-24) DILEMMAS OF RUSSIA’S MODERNIZATION Authoritarian Modernization of Russia in the 2000s (Olga Kryshtanovskaya, pp. 27-34) A Bit of Luck: The Development of the Political System in Russia (by Aleksey Chesnakov, pp. 35-40 )Has the Economic Crisis Changed the World View of the Russian Political Class? (by Valery Fadeev, pp. 41-46) Dilemmas of Russia’s Modernization (by Vladislav Inozemtsev, pp. 47-51) RUSSIA AND THE WORLD: MEDVEDEV’S “EUROPEAN SECURITY TREATY” PROPOSAL Rethinking Security in “Greater Europe” (by Fyodor Lukyanov, pp. 55-60) Multipolarity, Anarchy and Security (by Timofey Bordachev, pp.61-66) The Medvedev Initiative: The Origins and Development of a Political Project (by Boris Mezhuyev, pp. 67-71) AFTERWORD How the West Misunderstands Russia (by Gleb Pavlovsky, pp-73-78)

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№ 18 CAN THE EU REBUILD FAILING STATES? A REVIEW OF EUROPE’S CIVILIAN CAPACiTIES

Author(s): Daniel Korski,Richard Gowan,Jean-Marie Guéhenno / Language(s): English

In the next two decades, the persistent weakness of some states and regions may well prove a greater strategic challenge to the international community than the emergence of new powers like China. Having been in charge of UN peacekeeping for eight years, I believe we are not prepared to meet this challenge. We have been used to balancing power with power, but we are ill-equipped to deal with weakness: fragile states may require military deployments of peacekeepers, but strengthening them or managing their collapse requires much more complex strategies, drawing heavily on civilian capacities. One would expect the European Union, supposedly the civilian power par excellence, to be at the forefront of this effort, and certainly well ahead of the US, which has often been criticised for a Pentagon-dominated approach. Yet the Americans are fast learning the lessons of their difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, and energetically building their civilian capacities. The Europeans, despite having set themselves ambitious “civilian headline goals” in 2004, are at risk of being left behind. This report is severe on the performance of the EU as a “civilian power”. Tough love, perhaps. But the good news is that no group of countries in the world has more civilian capacity potential than the EU, and that opinion polls conducted across more than 50 countries find more support for a rise in the EU’s global influence than for any other major power. This is an extraordinary vote of confidence. Can Europe live up to it?

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№ 81 THE EU COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY. Responses to the Attacks in Paris

Author(s): Didier Bigo,Evelien Brouwer,Sergio Carrera,Elspeth Guild,Emmanuel-Pierre Guittet,Julien Jeandesboz,Francesco Ragazzi,Amandine Scherrer,Felix Scherrer / Language(s): English

This paper examines the EU counterterrorism policy responses to the attacks in Paris, 7-9 January 2015. It provides an overview of the main EU-level initiatives that have been put forward in the weeks following the events and that will be discussed in the informal European Council meeting of 12 February 2015. The paper argues that a majority of these proposals predated the Paris shootings and had until that point proved contentious as regards their efficacy, legitimacy and lawfulness. A case in point is the EU Passenger Name Record (PNR) proposal. The paper finds that EU counterterrorism policy responses to the Paris events raise two fundamental challenges: ** A first challenge is to the freedom of movement, Schengen and Union citizenship. The priority given to the expansion in the use of large-scale surveillance and systematic monitoring of all travellers including EU citizens stands in contravention of Schengen and the free movement principle. ** A second challenge concerns EU democratic rule of law. Current pressures calling for an urgent adoption of measures like the EU PNR challenge the scrutiny roles held by the European Parliament and the Court of Justice of the European Union on counterterrorism measures in a post-Lisbon Treaty setting. // The paper proposes that the EU adopts a new European Agenda on Security and Liberty based on an EU security (criminal justice-led) cooperation model firmly anchored in current EU legal principles and rule of law standards. This model would call for ‘less is more’ concerning the use, processing and retention of data by police and intelligence communities, and it would instead pursue better and more accurate use of data that would meet the quality standards of evidence in criminal judicial proceedings.

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№067: Ripping into TTIP? Debates Surrounding the Upcoming EU–U.S. Negotiations

Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English

The outcome of negotiations for a transatlantic trade deal depends largely on the stance of politicians and stakeholders in the EU and the U.S. An overview of the debate on either side of the Atlantic reveals both sides’ respective interests and suggests which areas will prove particularly difficult to negotiate. These include public procurement provisions, data privacy, agricultural issues, and the financial services sector.

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№081. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author(s): Madalena Resende,Hendrik Kraetzschmar / Language(s): English

As typified by Ukraine and Egypt, most of the semi- or non-democratic countries in the EU’s neighbourhood pretend to offer a degree of political pluralism. The standard is for a plurality of parties to run in national elections and participate in parliamentary sessions. In contrast to fully fledged democracies, however, these electoral rituals have little bearing on the composition of government and its policy output, which remains entirely dominated by the executive institutions and parties of power. This paper argues that the trademarks of these types of parties are a serious stumbling block for the development of a multi-party system based on competing ideological currents. For democracy to take hold in the EU’s eastern and southern neighbourhood of the EU, it is crucial that the logic of parties of power be replaced by one structured around autonomous and ideologically cohesive parties. Thus, both ideological and organisational party-building should be an integral part of the EU’s policy agenda to promote the spread of democracy in these regions. Date of Publishing: August 1, 2005

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№098. What should the Community of Democratic Choice do?

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

In August 2005, President Saakashvili of Georgia and President Yushchenko of Ukraine met at Borjomi, Georgia, and decided to launch an initiative to promote democracy among a community of like-minded states of Central and Eastern Europe. This led to a meeting in Kyiv on 2 December 2005, of a wider group of countries of the Baltic-Black-Caspian Sea region, which adopted a declaration announcing the creation of a Community of Democratic Choice (CDC) as a governmental and non-governmental forum to promote the strengthening of democracy, human rights and civil society. The next meeting of the CDC will take place as a Baltic and Black Sea Summit in Vilnius in May 2006.

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№101: Can You Spare Some Food? An Assessment of Russia’s Search for Replacements of Embargoed States

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

By introducing a one-year embargo on the import of some food and agricultural products, Russia will have to substitute old channels for new ones on an unprecedented scale. With the exception of Belarus, there are few options to increase imports from suppliers close to Russia’s biggest cities. Within the country’s broader neighbourhood, China and Turkey offer some potential, whereas Latin America would be considered a more distant source for food. However, the change in trade patterns would have its price. Not only will Russia risk growing inflation but also it will increase its dependency on China, which can settle for good Moscow’s role as a minor partner of Beijing.

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№114: Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): English

Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. Themanipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontationalattitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. Tocounter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative basedon truth and common values.

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№115: Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

Author(s): Anna Pochylska,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.

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№116: Turkey’s Rise as a Reluctant Ally Faced with the Russian Threat

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

While actively contributing to NATO exercises and operations that confirm Turkey’s commitmentto the Alliance, Ankara has also actively avoided cooperating with the Western political andeconomic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine. Turkey’s low-level involvement, shaped bysecurity concerns, economic needs, yet at the same time its consolidating dependence on Moscow,and its optimistic opportunism, increasingly raise concerns about possible prospects of a Turkish pivotaway from the Euro-Atlantic community. But even while distancing itself from NATO, it may be inTurkey’s interests to rebalance its policy by supporting the stability of Ukraine and closer cooperationwith the EU.

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№117: How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

Author(s): Justyna Prus,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment supportfor the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars andUkrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatarscommemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to massdeaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority atthe peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet(including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Sovietideology.

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№118: Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The revolution in Ukraine has shown that the difficult history of Central and Eastern Europe ended neither with the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor with the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Moreover, Russia’s violent reaction in the form annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas has set in motion a number of political processes, which have not only shaken international relations in Central and Eastern Europe, but have also shown the countries in the region that stability in this part of Europe is not a given. Thus, these countries, the vast majority of which are members of the European Union and NATO, face a serious problem regarding the further evolution of relations with Russia, not only in the political or economic dimension, but also in the military sphere.

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№119: Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

Author(s): Teona Turashvili,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

With the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga set for 21–22 May, Georgia is seen as one of the mostadvanced EaP members in terms of adoption of European standards. The country is quite successful interms of building a democratic and transparent state, which is both rare and sets an importantprecedent in the post-Soviet region. Still, such positive changes in Georgia are not irreversible, andmany reforms are only at the initial stage. The EU should offer more support, and encourage thegovernment in Tbilisi in reforming state institutions. Priority should be given to the justice sector, publicadministration, and local government in order to secure democratic governance and a fair politicalenvironment for further transformation. Moreover, the EU should also increase support for Georgia’scivil society, which is the most efficient “whistle-blower” in the event of bad practices such ascorruption, cronyism or use of prosecutors and the judiciary against political opponents.

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№120: Financing Climate Actions: Key to a Paris Agreement?

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

The Paris Climate Conference to be held in December may be the last chance to deliver a globalagreement on tackling climate change. One issue that could be a game-changer for the negotiationsand one that is inevitable to achieve global climate goals is so-called climate finance. The existingframework does not provide enough predictability and capacity to limit global warming to a maximumof 2°C. A clear mechanism for gathering public funds from developed countries and the inclusion ofprivate investments is needed to secure reliable post-2020 climate actions.

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№121: Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Although Central Asian states are vulnerable to the activities of radical Islamic organisations due to theweaknesses of their political and social systems—marked by authoritarianism, corruption, nepotism,and ethnic and religious tension, as well as their poor economic circumstances—interest in ISIS amongtheir citizens remains low. These states so far also have not become an area of interest for ISIS,although that may change. When some people in these countries do leave for Syria and Iraq, theirdecision is not rooted just in poverty but also in social exclusion and poor religious education. At thesame time, citizens of far more affluent and often far less authoritarian European and Middle Easterncountries travel in higher numbers to Syria to join ISIS. Nonetheless, a potential increase in thepopularity of radical Islamist factions will not only be a problem for the five countries of the region,where the authorities will try to use the phenomenon to strengthen their special services and raisefunds for border protection, but also for Russia, especially since people from Central Asia are mainlyrecruited to ISIS on Russian territory and traverse it to reach the battlefields. Russia, therefore, willcontinue to support its neighbours in the fight against such organisations by helping to strengthenborder control, support for local special services and by CSTO Rapid Reaction Forces. The EuropeanUnion and the United States should offer not only intelligence support and assistance in protectingthese borders against this threat but also economic programmes and development assistance that canbe used to decrease the factors that may contribute to the radicalisation of those living in Central Asia.

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№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created AfghanNational Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise astill volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, mayprove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA)are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA hasreached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by theANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receivea level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, theunstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence ofmilitias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may resultin the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by theAfghan population.

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