Series:OSW Commentary

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Türkiye and the Syrian crisis

Turcja wobec kryzysu syryjskiego

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: war ins Syria; Turkey's role in Middle East;

The escalation of tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border in early October confirms that it is ongoing. For more than a year and a half, the civil war in Syria is one of the main challenges for Turkey foreign and security policy. Ambitions to play a key role in the Middle East, in particular, a number of threats to Turkey related to the escalation of the conflict prompt Ankara to actively engage in bringing the crisis to an end under secure conditions, i.e.: Turkey's security and as much influence as possible on the situation in Syria and the region. For the main purposes Ankara now has to bring about the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and peace transformation in Syria while maintaining security. For the implementation of these goals, Türkiye has taken a number of unilateral and international actions. Their results were limited so far. Maintaining Damascus' military advantage over the opposition and none strong enough pressure on the Assad regime from the international community does not offer prospects for a quick end to the conflict on terms that suit Ankara's interests. At the same time, the negative effects of the crisis on Turkey are intensifying. In this situation, of particular importance has an alliance for Turkey to increase security and achieve Syrian policy goals with the West, mainly within NATO, as well as with the United States and EU countries. Cooperation within NATO and with individual Western countries in the face of the crisis is for Ankara as a test of the usefulness of the alliance with the West. This rating will affect the influence of the West on Turkey in its Middle East policy.

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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; financial sanctions

Since December 2023, the US administration has been increasing its pressure on Russia’s financial sector and its foreign partners. This has made it progressively more difficult for the Russian Federation to pay for imported goods and services. Reports from Russian media and businesses also indicate that several Chinese banks have ceased their cooperation with Russia due to concerns over US secondary sanctions. Nonetheless, these challenges have not yet led to any significant alterations to Russia’s foreign trade. According to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), in the first eight months of 2024, the value of imports fell by approximately 8% year-on-year, while exports declined by more than 1%. This relatively modest reduction suggests that Russian entities, in collaboration with their foreign partners, particularly those in the Global South, continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. However, the costs of importing goods are increasing and delivery times are lengthening. Consequently, inflation continues to rise, further exacerbating Russia’s economic woes.

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Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak,Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia

Ukraine’s seizure of a portion of Russian territory containing strategically important gas infrastructure assets has not resulted in a reduction of Russian gas flow to EU consumers. However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies.

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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian refineries

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum products, enforced since June 2021, has effectively cut off Belarusian exporters from profitable Western markets. Furthermore, sales to Ukraine, one of the country’s key markets, have also been halted due to the ongoing war.The Belarusian oil sector, once a significant source of profit, has recently been compelled to reorganise its supply logistics and redirect its exports. Following a challenging year in 2022, Belarus’s two refineries, with support from Moscow, managed to partially recover their losses by capitalising on favourable price trends in the Russian fuel market. However, this industry, along with other sectors of the economy, has become entirely dependent on cooperation with Russia. While the refineries have adapted to the new circumstances, they were still forced to reduce oil processing by approximately one-third, which has negatively impacted their profitability and, consequently, diminished their importance within the national economy.

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The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Xi Jinping; China

In the vision for the economy presented by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (CC), technological progress is portrayed as the solution to the major issues affecting the People’s Republic of China and the concerns of its government. The party did not seize the event as an opportunity to present concrete solutions to China’s structural problems or to improve its current economic situation. Instead, preparations for a confrontation with the US remain the party’s unwavering priority. For Beijing, the ultimate goal of modernising the Chinese economy is to enhance the state’s security and to discover new sources of productivity. Technologies developed and upgraded within China, alongside the expansion of its industrial base, are crucial in achieving this. This is expected to reduce China's reliance on foreign supplies, to make industrial development the new driving force of economic growth and to secure China’s position as the global leader in innovation. This all comes at the expense of the Chinese people’s prosperity. When faced with the choice whether to combat the fundamental problem of low consumption or strengthen the ‘fortress’ which is being besieged by the US, Beijing has opted for a technological ‘leap forward’. This strategy is likely to escalate trade disputes with other countries that are affected by Beijing’s industrial policy and fear a ‘China shock 2.0’.

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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rail Baltica project

Alongside Via Baltica, Rail Baltica (RB), which involves the construction of a high-speed railway (HSR) connecting the Baltic state’s capitals, has been the most important infrastructural venture carried out by these states since they regained independence. Due to mounting costs, the high rate of inflation recorded in recent years, the expansion of the scope of work and bureaucratic problems, its implementation is at least five years behind schedule. An almost four-fold increase in its cost, from €5.8 bn to €23.8 bn, is the biggest challenge, as now the project’s funding is in excess of the financial capacity of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. RB has been included in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), as a result of which the Baltic states are obliged to complete the investment by 2030. Although Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have mainly financed its implementation from EU funds (85% of the eligible costs), these sums are highly insufficient. If the Baltic states fail to obtain further EU funds for this purpose, there is practically no chance of completing the investment, that is constructing all the planned sections and adjusting these to the required HSR parameters, in this time frame.

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Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Zelensky; Yermak; Ukraine

A peculiar political system has emerged during the five years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine, with virtually all power concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) which he controls. The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and the Cabinet of Ministers have been marginalised, and the most important decisions in the country are made at Bankova Street, where the president and his administration are based. This is partly a consequence of the characteristic prevalence of informal governance mechanisms over formal ones in Ukraine, which includes the role of the president being greater than laid out under the constitution.

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Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; demography; Black Sea

After many years of rapid population growth, Turkey’s demographic future hangs in the balance. The record-low birth rate in 2023 and the changing age structure indicate that Turkish society is entering a stage of ageing typical for highly developed countries. Regional disparities in this respect are also deepening: the country’s poorer, south-eastern region has a much higher fertility rate and a younger population, while the northern regions along the Black Sea have a higher average age. These current trends reflect deeper transformations taking place in Turkey, driven by internal migration and modernisation processes related to factors such as urbanisation and cultural changes; they are also the product of many years of economic uncertainty. Simultaneously, growing numbers of mostly young people have been leaving the country. These developments herald an imminent demographic crisis that will negatively impact the Turkish economy and necessitate a major adjustment of social policy.

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The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Viktor Orbán; Hungary

On 27 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual keynote speech in Băile Tușnad, Transylvania, Romania, which was almost entirely focussed on global issues. Orbán emphasised that Europe needs to emancipate itself from US influence, shift away from supporting Kyiv, and pursue an agreement with Moscow. He also criticised Poland’s pro-American policy aimed at weakening Russia, which he described as wrong and “doomed to fail”. Furthermore, he underscored the necessity of acknowledging the rise of Asian powers, viewing this as an opportunity, particularly with regard to cooperation with China.

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A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Lithuania

Hostile attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania have become more widespread as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Belarus’s involvement. This animosity has been further exacerbated by the ongoing debate in the Lithuanian media about how to interpret the two nations’ shared, centuries-old history. The key context for these tensions is the significant growth of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania over the past four years (c. 63,000 people) and the influx of 86,000 Ukrainian citizens and 16,000 Russians following the outbreak of war in 2022. This situation has confronted Lithuanian politicians and special services with the challenge of identifying and preventing possible threats. They have been closely monitoring efforts to disseminate radical, nationalist, and other views inspired by Belarusian and Russian special services with the aim of dividing the two nations. Such views include the concept of the so-called ‘Litvinism’, a pseudo-scientific theory which claims that the medieval Lithuanians were in fact Belarusians and that they founded the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (GDL). If this theory were to be legitimised, Lithuania’s right to the Vilnius region could be called into question. Leaders of the Belarusian diaspora have supported Lithuania’s position that rejects Litvinism and have viewed any efforts to popularise this idea as attempts to drive a wedge between the two nations.

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An increasingly important partner. Poland’s exports to and investment in Ukraine

An increasingly important partner. Poland’s exports to and investment in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Polish-Ukrainian trade

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a surge in Polish-Ukrainian trade, mainly due to an increase in Polish exports which grew by more than 80% between 2021 and 2023. Poland’s imports have remained at pre-war levels, with the exception of a spike recorded in 2022 due to an influx of cereals and oilseeds. In 2023, the value of Poland’s exports to Ukraine was almost triple that of its imports from that country. At present, Ukraine ranks sixth among Poland’s export partners. Although the increase in exports was mainly recorded in categories such as weapons, ammunition and fuels, more dynamic export activity also occurred in numerous other sectors, including clothing, footwear and furniture. Despite periodic border blockades, road and rail transport played a key role in trade and no noticeable disruptions in export activity to Ukraine were recorded.

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A siege broken? China’s processor sector under US sanctions

A siege broken? China’s processor sector under US sanctions

Author(s): Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Chinese-US rivalry

Processors are at the heart of the Chinese-US rivalry. They are among the key technologies in which the US holds such global dominance that it can slow China’s growth. The unprecedented export restrictions that the US introduced in 2022 were designed to hinder the growth of China’s semiconductor sector and prevent this country from manufacturing chips smaller than 14 nm. However, these sanctions have proved to be porous, allowing Chinese companies, which have benefited from extensive state support, to partially develop the production of relatively advanced semiconductor technologies. They have so far failed to achieve the 2–3 nm level that characterises the most advanced chips; they also remain dependent on imports of chip-making equipment. Nonetheless, the ultimate outcome of global competition in this industry will depend not only on the actions of the US and China, but also on the attitudes of other actors involved in international microprocessor supply chains, such as the Netherlands, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

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Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Emmanuel Macron; France

Over the course of his seven-year presidency, Emmanuel Macron has had complete freedom in shaping France's foreign and security policy. This autonomy is evident in France’s fluctuating stance towards Russia, from initial hopes of building a shared European security architecture to the recent reports of dispatching French military instructors to support embattled Ukraine. The pace of decision-making was undoubtedly an advantage for France compared to many allies, but it did not always enhance Paris's credibility.

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Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latvia; demographic crisis

Due to its negative natural increase and emigration, Latvia is one of the fastest depopulating countries in the world, losing 18,000–20,000 inhabitants annually – the equivalent of a medium-sized Latvian town. Although the country’s political and intellectual elite recognised the problem following the 2007 economic crisis, Latvia has failed to implement comprehensive measures and devise a political strategy to reverse or at least slow down the negative trends. The gloomy picture of Latvian demography is further blurred by the absence of social consensus on solving these problems, including, to some degree, allowing immigration from outside the EU. Another major issue is the unprecedented magnitude of the Latvian population’s health problems compared to other EU member states.

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Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Author(s): Robert Pszczel,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Washington Summit

Three themes were dominant at the NATO Summit in Washington (9–11 July): the reinforcement of allied deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, and cooperation with the partners in the Indo-Pacific. NATO continues to adapt its command structure and the process of force generation for new regional defence plans. The most significant decisions concerned aid for Ukraine. Although Kyiv is yet to receive an invitation to join NATO, its integration path was described as "irreversible".The decisions made at the summit regarding NATO's new role in supporting Ukraine are to serve as a "bridge" to eventual membership. These include NATO taking on tasks of coordinating military aid and the training of Ukrainian forces, along with a financial commitment of at least €40 billion annually for long-term support. Compared to previous documents, the allies have toughened their language on China in the Summit Declaration, identifying it as a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

Russia has seen a negative natural population growth rate for three decades, except for a brief period between 2013 and 2015. Since 2020, the natural population decline has no longer been offset by a positive migration balance. As a result, the Russian population has been consistently decreasing, primarily due to long-term demographic problems such as a decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. These adverse trends have been compounded by immediate challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a noticeable increase in the number of deaths, and the ongoing war with Ukraine, the demographic impact of which is difficult to estimate, since the number of casualties has not been disclosed by the authorities.

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How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; NATO

Ukraine’s defensive war is a struggle for high stakes: the existence of the Ukrainian state and the security of the entire Western world. The upcoming NATO summit in Washington, like the previous one in Vilnius, will not bring any breakthroughs regarding how quickly Ukraine joins the Alliance, or whether Kyiv receives a formal invitation. However, NATO is ready to increase its support for Ukraine significantly. The assistance package which has been prepared may prove to be an added value binding Ukraine more closely with the Alliance. This will create an opportunity for two goals to be achieved simultaneously: strategically strengthening Ukraine's military potential in its war against Russia, and preparing it for the requirements of future membership.

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The crisis affecting Russia’s public services: healthcare, education, and the postal service

The crisis affecting Russia’s public services: healthcare, education, and the postal service

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

Russia’s public services are facing chronic issues, stemming from insufficient funding, staff shortages and uneven socio-economic development. These challenges have been exacerbated by Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, as the state budget has prioritised military spending. The direct and indirect consequences of the war have further strained these services. The crisis is evident in critical sectors including those of key importance to the state such as health care, education, and the postal service. Despite the prolonged and severe nature of these problems, the situation remains under control and poses no risk of a total collapse.

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NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russia; Ukraine

NATO is in the process of adjusting its nuclear deterrence in response to the modernisation of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric. However, the changes to NATO’s nuclear strategy, capabilities (aside from the ongoing modernisation of the US, UK, and French strategic forces), and strategic communication have so far been limited.Currently, there is no agreement on whether to further strengthen NATO’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe by expanding the nuclear sharing programme to include additional allies or by deploying nuclear-capable land-based missile systems in Europe. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to adapt NATO’s tactical nuclear potential further in the future as the US’s nuclear capabilities will be most likely adjusted to the growing challenges posed not only by Russia but also China. This may spur a discussion on the European allies increasing their participation in nuclear sharing program and on strengthening the roles of France and the UK in nuclear deterrence in Europe.

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Engaging the private sector. Germany’s plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Engaging the private sector. Germany’s plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Ukraine; private sector

Berlin believes that the reconstruction and post-war development of Ukraine should involve not only enhancing the country’s integration with the EU market and implementing institutional reforms but also increasing engagement by the private sector. To this end, a broad range of instruments are to be provided, including investment guarantees, export insurance, advisory support, and the coordinated efforts of public agencies and business organisations. According to the German government, the reconstruction of Ukraine is envisioned as an economic undertaking, largely free of political dilemmas, including the potential confiscation of Russian assets to finance reforms in Ukraine.

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