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Elections to the European Parliament: the beginning of an electoral marathon in Germany

Author(s): Kamil Frymark,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; European Parliament; SPD; CDU

For German politicians, the European Parliament (EP) election is the most important test of voting intentions ahead of the regional elections in eastern federal states planned for this autumn and the elections to the Bundestag in 2025. This is why domestic issues, in particular the proposal to curb migration and the commitment to ensure security, are important elements of the platforms which the parties prepared for the recent EP election campaign. The importance of this campaign and the outcome of the election is corroborated by the strong involvement of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the majority of ministers in it. However, the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are topping the polls with their new conservative platform.

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Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Vladimir Putin

The presidential pseudo-election on 15–17 March was orchestrated to be an unequivocal triumph for Vladimir Putin, and as proof of allegedly overwhelming public support for his policies, including the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The authorities employed methods of manipulating and falsifying the results on an unprecedented scale, including compelling people to participate in completely opaque online voting. The record-high official result for Putin (87.3%) and turnout (77.4%), reportedly the highest in the Russian Federation’s history, are entirely unreliable. However, such results are expected to give the president carte blanche to continue his dictatorial rule – most likely for life.

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The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Brussels; South Caucasus

During the current terms of office of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, both of which end in 2024, the EU has stepped up its activities in the South Caucasus in an unprecedented manner. It has become involved in the political infighting in Georgia and in mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and enhanced its economic relations with the latter by developing various transport projects. On the one hand, its increased activity has come as a response to the developments in and around the region. On the other, the actions it has taken are consistent with its strategic policy objective of strengthening the former Soviet states and expanding the zone of stability in its own neighbourhood. The head of the European Council Charles Michel has played a major role in animating the EU’s policy by personally participating in many of its initiatives. The granting of candidate status to Georgia marked the beginning of a qualitatively new stage in the EU’s presence in the region, even if this country is extremely unlikely to join the EU anytime soon.

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A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Author(s): Kamil Frymark,Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: German-Polish House; Germany; Poland

Commissioned by the German state, a German-Polish House is to be built in Berlin. This concept is the result of a debate lasting several years about whether it would be legitimate for the German capital to see the creation of a monument to the victims of crimes perpetrated against the Polish nation during the Second World War. In line with the currently valid concept, the initiative will be based on three main elements: commemoration (creation of an ‘artistic element’), the construction of a museum housing a permanent exhibition and temporary displays, and educational projects. The substantive aspect will focus on the Nazi German aggression against Poland and its brutal occupation in 1939–45. The project will be carried out by two German institutions: the Foundation of the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, which prepared the House’s concept, and the German Institute of Polish Affairs, which is responsible for the initiative’s operational aspect and the preparation of educational programmes. Political supervision of the project is carried out by the Federal Chancellery represented by Secretary of State Claudia Roth (the Greens).

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Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: German electric car market; electromobility

The German electric car market has seen a rapid growth over the past few years, with the country becoming the undisputed electromobility leader in Europe. This success has largely been possible thanks to generous subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. However, the German government’s sudden decision in December 2023 to end the subsidy programme has cast doubt on the further development of electromobility in this country. Both the industry itself and experts anticipate that this decision will have a negative impact on sales in this market sector for up to two years.

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25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; NATO

On 12 March 1999, after years of active diplomatic lobbying, Poland joined the ranks of NATO, the transatlantic club renowned for its unique collective defence guarantees. This process yielded success relatively quickly, even though the outcome was not a foregone conclusion, given the variety of internal and external challenges that Poland faced at that time.The foundation of that success was bipartisan support for membership, which was reflected in the programmes of successive governments, as well as the consistent and effective effort of diplomats, military personnel and experts. Poland undertook considerable work to align with Alliance standards, fully leveraging the opportunities presented by the new partnership frameworks. The constructive approach to regional cooperation and active participation in international forums were also of significant importance. These efforts helped Poland to provide appropriate responses to the evolving views of the allied member states, especially regarding the perception of Russia, Germany’s stance on enlargement, and the consequences of the Balkan wars.Examining how Poland joined the Alliance can offer insights into the country’s current strategy and its role within NATO. Additionally, many of Poland’s experiences from that time remain relevant, and could serve as an inspiration for other countries aspiring to join the Alliance today.

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The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian LNG sector

The successive moves to tighten the Western sanctions regime targeting the Russian LNG sector have aggravated the problems affecting it as it faces major difficulties which are jeopardising its further development. The technology embargo and other restrictions have resulted in delays in the construction of new liquefaction installations and in the multiplication of challenges regarding logistics and funding. The sanctions are also generating additional costs for the state and reducing its gas revenues.

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Running on European tracks. Modernising the rail network in western Ukraine during wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; EU

The Ukrainian government has used the ongoing war as an opportunity to carry out a rapid transformation of the railway infrastructure in the western part of the country. This process is expected to both increase the capacity of the railway lines leading to the EU in the short term, and to result in the local logistical hubs taking over a significant share of the added value generated by rail transhipment operations. The construction of a large hub at Sknyliv near Lviv is the key element of the government’s plan. Due to the building of the standard-gauge railway to the border, plans have been made to connect the future hub to the rail networks of Poland and Romania as soon as possible, alongside the terminal at Mostyska which operates nearby.

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Year two of the war: Russia goes on the offensive, the West trapped in its strategic delusions

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

The second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not brought any breakthrough, let alone a resolution to the conflict, and all indications are that none of this could have been avoided. After 24 months of facing Russia’s full-scale assault, the Ukrainian forces are still able to mount a successful defence along a frontline that stretches for some 1000 km, and they have even managed to recapture a significant part of the territories they lost in the first phase of the conflict. Prior to 24 February 2022, anyone who had thought up such a scenario would likely have been dismissed as an unrealistic fantasist.

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Chronicle of a death foretold. Putin gets rid of Navalny

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Marek Menkiszak,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Alexei Navalny

On 16 February, the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service announced that Alexei Navalny, the leading figure of the Russian democratic opposition, had died in a penal colony. The circumstances of his death remain unclear, and the official report contains inconsistencies that suggest attempts at manipulation. Without an independent investigation (which is unlikely), it is impossible to decide whether Navalny’s death was due to ‘natural’ causes resulting from prolonged physical ill-treatment, or a premeditated murder ordered by the Kremlin.Putin’s responsibility for the demise of Alexei Navalny, who had long been a long-term political challenge for Russia's president, is beyond doubt. This death has provoked displays of grief and mourning among those Russians who are critical of the Kremlin, but it will not destabilise the domestic political situation, and will in fact weaken the Russian opposition operating in exile. Despite the outrage and condemnation expressed by Western leaders, it will not significantly affect Western policies towards Moscow.

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Fiala’s government halfway through its term: security reinforcement overshadowed by economic problems

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Petr Fiala; Czech Republic

Petr Fiala’s cabinet, which has been in power in the Czech Republic since December 2021, is facing a record decline in support at the halfway point. This is an effect of its waiting too long to address the issues caused by inflation and breaking its promise not to raise taxes. Although living standards in the country have deteriorated, the governing centre-right coalition is pushing through its unpopular budget consolidation package. The backdrop for the government’s poor ratings is the substandard economic performance – the Czech Republic is the only EU country whose GDP has still not reached pre-pandemic levels. This is also partly a result of the country’s very strong trade and investment ties with Germany, which is struggling with numerous economic problems.

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Key to the future of the Energiewende: support for building new power plants

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: SPD-Greens-FDP coalition

It took many weeks of negotiations for the leaders of the SPD-Greens-FDP coalition to reach a compromise on the strategy for building new power plants, which are intended to complement renewable energy sources (RESs) and enable the final phase-out of coal. The first step in this direction is to provide financial support for investments in gas power plants with a total capacity of 10 GW which can be transitioned to hydrogen, followed by the development of a capacity market concept, which is expected to come into effect no later than 2028. The agreement is quite general in nature, but nevertheless it marks a political breakthrough. However, many decisions on the key details will still have to be made in the future, which means that tough negotiations within the coalition must be undertaken, and the entire mechanism will still need to be approved by the European Commission (EC). The scale of support for the construction of new power plants, which is much smaller than originally envisaged, means that Germany can no longer be expected to phase out coal by 2030. Nevertheless, this is a top-priority initiative in Germany’s energy policy in this parliamentary term, and failure to implement it will prevent the process of the Energiewende from continuing.

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On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian army; Russia

At the end of 2023 the Ukrainian army was facing a serious crisis involving manpower shortage, aside from the even more serious problem posed by the shortfall of weapons and ammunition. This is particularly evident as regards the infantry, which has formed the backbone of the forces fighting against Russia and has suffered the most severe losses. The majority of volunteers enlisted in the first months of the war, while opportunities to recruit thousands of new ones have now been exhausted. Although a mobilisation process has been underway since spring 2022, due to the present legal and organisational constraints it is selective in nature, and has proved unable to meet the needs of the armed forces in terms of unit replenishment and rotation. These problems are further aggravated by the soldiers’ high average age (around 40); this translates into poor physical condition & health, and they lack the stamina to withstand the hardships of gruelling trench warfare. In some aspects, the causes of the crisis involve the army itself, and result from many years of neglect and irregularities affecting the military draft centres. However, the main factor hindering the improvement of the situation has been political.

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Will Russia pay for the war? Efforts to create a compensation mechanism for Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; G7

The almost two-year-long Russian assault has inflicted huge losses on Ukraine. According to the World Bank, the latter lost $135 billion in direct costs in the first twelve months of the war alone. The total economic, social and monetary damage has been estimated at $290 billion, while the funding needed for reconstruction has been estimated at $411 billion, equivalent to 2.6 times Ukraine’s GDP in 2022. In order to partially cover the latter, Ukraine has been working to persuade its partners to create a compensation mechanism through which the Russian assets that have been frozen in Western countries could be transferred to Ukraine. This is potentially a vast pool: the G7 countries and the EU have blocked reserves from the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) worth more than €300 billion, as well as around $60 billion in private funds. However, Ukraine’s plans face a number of obstacles. Western countries are yet to develop legal instruments that would allow them to confiscate these funds. There are also grave concerns that the status of the dollar and the euro as international reserve currencies could be undermined, and that other countries could come forward with compensation claims. Furthermore, a compensation commission has never started work in the midst of an ongoing war.

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A disaster of their own making. The demographic crisis in China

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: China

China is currently facing demographic problems which closely resemble those seen in most developed countries. However, it has had less time to deal with the consequences of the population crisis. Furthermore, as the Chinese public is clearly less prosperous, the crisis has had a more negative impact on the country’s residents and economy. All this is an effect of the family policy mistakes that have been made since the early 1980s, as well as the system’s prolonged inability to make swift adjustments, despite the emergence of unfavourable demographic trends at the turn of the century.

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A lot of effort, not many results. Latvia’s belated de-Sovietisation

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Latvia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the beginning of a new chapter in the Latvian state’s policy towards the Russian-speaking minority which accounts for around a third of the country’s population. The shock caused by the Russia’s attack and the crimes it perpetrated drove Riga to decide to reorganise Latvian society and to eliminate all things Russian alongside the remnants of the colonial Soviet past. The government’s long-term goal is to put an end to the disputes which Moscow constantly stokes and which have been dividing the public for decades. The main instrument of these activities involves rapid legislative amendments regarding issues such as education, culture, migration policy and citizenship legislation.

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Fear of retaliation: Germany’s concerns about punitive tariffs on electric cars from China

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Germany; China

The European Union is nearing a decision on whether to impose restrictions on imports of electric cars from China. The German automotive industry is observing this scenario with apprehension as it expects both retaliation from the government in Beijing and a further erosion of its position on the Chinese market, which is crucial for its turnover and profits. Germany’s federal government has taken due consideration of the need to protect the EU’s competition rules and the development of e-mobility, but it also fears retaliation from China, and in particular, its spillover into other sectors of the economy.

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The EU Rapid Deployment Capacity: political priorities and real needs

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU Council; European Union; Rapid Deployment Capacity

The Belgian Presidency of the EU Council, which commenced on 1 January this year, is prioritising the implementation of the objectives outlined in the Strategic Compass. This includes the initiation of EU rapid reaction forces, referred to as the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC), which will have a projected strength of up to 5000 soldiers by 2025. EU institutions believe that fulfilling this ambitious plan is a matter of great political importance. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has prompted member states to commit to providing the missing elements of strategic support known as strategic enablers, but some countries are hesitant to engage resources in an endeavour that prioritises the security needs of the EU’s south and stands in competition with NATO initiatives. The pursuit of political success inherent in the fulfilment of the Strategic Compass’s goals is likely to culminate in the creation in good time of the RDC. However, it may fall short of some of the envisioned resources and strategic enablers, which will raise doubts about how effectively it can be utilised in the future.

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Paradise lost? Falling foreign investments in China

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: The People’s Bank of China; China

The People’s Bank of China has reported that the third quarter of 2023 saw an outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI); this is the first time this has happened in at least 25 years. However, these data do not fully reflect real economic processes. Foreign companies have long appreciated China due to the appealing business conditions on offer. However, the investment climate in this country has been deteriorating in recent years due to Beijing’s domestic policy and its escalating rivalry with Washington. The People's Republic of China led by Xi Jinping has given special priority to economic security, introducing a number of regulations that have adversely affected foreign investors. However, business circles, encouraged by the US and EU authorities to de-risk, have responded to the mounting challenges in different ways. Some companies are cutting investments to reduce the risks associated with their strong ties to the Chinese market, others are increasing expenditure to strengthen and isolate their Chinese operations. Getting the proportions right is a challenge, but a complex mosaic of data paints a picture of a structural decline in FDI in China. FDI indicators may improve in the coming years, but structural processes motivated by economic calculation and political pressure will probably lead to further restrictions on investments in China as part of a gradual, comprehensive reduction of the dependence of foreign business on the Chinese industrial base.

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Increasingly distant neighbours: Lithuania towards Belarusians

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein / Language(s): English

Keywords: Alyaksandr Lukashenka; Belarus

In the last three years Belarusians have become the fastest growing group of foreigners in Lithuania. At present, the Belarusian diaspora in this country numbers some 61,000 people, 80 percent of whom have settled there primarily for economic reasons: they have found jobs mainly in the construction and logistics sectors, and also set up their own businesses. It is increasingly rare for them to arrive in Lithuania on the so-called humanitarian visas, which can be obtained by those whom the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka has persecuted; 700 such visas have been issued so far. Although Belarusians are playing an important role by filling gaps in the Lithuanian labour market, their influx has sparked growing concerns among Lithuanian society. The country’s secret services have warned that the new arrivals may include people infiltrated by Russian and Belarusian intelligence services, which poses a potential threat to national security.

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Series:OSW Commentary

Elections to the European Parliament: the beginning of an electoral marathon in Germany

Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Running on European tracks. Modernising the rail network in western Ukraine during wartime

Year two of the war: Russia goes on the offensive, the West trapped in its strategic delusions

Chronicle of a death foretold. Putin gets rid of Navalny

Fiala’s government halfway through its term: security reinforcement overshadowed by economic problems

Key to the future of the Energiewende: support for building new power plants

On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis

Will Russia pay for the war? Efforts to create a compensation mechanism for Ukraine

A disaster of their own making. The demographic crisis in China

A lot of effort, not many results. Latvia’s belated de-Sovietisation

Fear of retaliation: Germany’s concerns about punitive tariffs on electric cars from China

The EU Rapid Deployment Capacity: political priorities and real needs

Paradise lost? Falling foreign investments in China

Increasingly distant neighbours: Lithuania towards Belarusians