Series:OSW Commentary

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The capitulation of Ukraine and the Finlandisation of Europe: Russia’s threats and ‘offers’

The capitulation of Ukraine and the Finlandisation of Europe: Russia’s threats and ‘offers’

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Putin; West

Over the past few weeks, the political leadership of the Russian Federation (RF) has issued a series of statements and undertaken actions primarily aimed at Ukraine and the Western countries supporting it. These statements and actions can be divided into two main categories. The first includes threats to escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war to a nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. The second consists of ‘offers’ not only to end the war but also to begin talks on creating a new security and stability architecture in Eurasia. If these offers were accepted, they would be equivalent to the capitulation of Ukraine, a significant limitation of its sovereignty, and allowing Russia to take effective control the country. This would also lead to the destruction of the current political and security order in Europe, the disruption of transatlantic ties, and allowing the European continent to be dragged into the orbit of both China and Russia.

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China on the road to ‘green’ energy security

China on the road to ‘green’ energy security

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; global energy transformation

China aspires to be the leader of the global energy transformation. Unlike the European Union and others, it hasfocused on its main priorities: enhancing national security and turning its green industry into a driving force for its economy. Reducing pollutant emissions is further down the list of its objectives. For this reason, China has been the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy sources, but it has also spent heavily on coal and nuclear power. Any reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are merely a by-product of these processes; in fact, China has been party to global climate agreements mainly for reasons of prestige.

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Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war

Much of Ukrainian diplomacy’s activity has been focused on efforts to persuade the world that it should support an end to the war with Russia on Ukraine’s terms. Since November 2022, Ukraine has primarily pursued this goal by promoting Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which consists of 10 points representing Ukrainian demands directly related to the ongoing conflict: the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, Russia’s recognition of the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, punishing those guilty of war crimes, and launching international action in the face of the threats with possible global consequences that exist in Ukraine. These include ensuring the safety of nuclear energy in the light of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and guaranteeing Ukrainian food exports via the Black Sea.

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Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s restoration of its territorial integrity in the period from 2020 to 2023 marked the culmination of a thirty-year effort. The country’s foreign and security policy was subordinated to the overarching goal of recovering Nagorno-Karabakh and other lost territories. However, this objective also determined its domestic policy: it legitimised the necessity of its authoritarian rule, and even reinforced it by allowing the government to consider any opposition activity as a priori detrimental to the country’s defence capabilities in the face of an external threat. The long-lasting conflict with Armenia also had important social (the influx of displaced persons and refugees) and cultural (nation- and state-building) dimensions. The recent military success has strengthened and legitimised President Ilham Aliyev’s position as a victorious leader.

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A country of interim governments. The political crisis in Bulgaria and the attempts to solve it

A country of interim governments. The political crisis in Bulgaria and the attempts to solve it

Author(s): Łukasz Kobeszko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria

Bulgaria has held five parliamentary elections over the past three years. On 9 June, the citizens of this country will once again elect a new parliament in yet another snap election. A series of interim cabinets appointed by President Rumen Radev, without the parliament being involved, have governed for a significant part of this time as it has been impossible to form a working government based on a parliamentary majority. The experiment of the so-called rotating government, created after the 2023 elections by the two largest parliamentary forces, the centre-right GERB and the centrist-liberal We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), also proved unsuccessful.

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A general rehearsal: strategies to contain the AfD

A general rehearsal: strategies to contain the AfD

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: afD; Germany

At present, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is Germany’s second most popular party. In the eastern federal states, it tops the polls with more than 30% of voters’ support, which makes it a ‘catch-all’ or mass party (Volkspartei) which targets all social, professional and age groups with its platform. Its popularity in the east has not waned despite repeated accusations of extremism being levelled at the party and the fact that its members came under counterintelligence surveillance and were accused of acting on behalf of Russia and China.

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Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia

Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery facilities inside Russia have dealt a significant blow to the Russian fuel sector. During the first four months of 2024, the Ukrainian forces attacked more than a dozen refineries; damage of varying degrees was reported at eight of these. As a result, Russian plants temporarily shut down some of their processing capacity, which led to a drop in fuel production.

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The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Gaza Strip

In the second week of May, Israel launched an invasion of the southern part of the Gaza Strip (the Rafah region) and resumed massive ground & air attacks in the north (including on the city of Jabalia). Since then, its army (the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF) has taken control of the border crossing with Egypt (which had hitherto been used as the main point for importing humanitarian aid) and began entering the city of Rafah itself. As a result, Israel now fully controls land access to Gaza, which it has consistently blocked since the start of the offensive.[1]

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On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Central Asia; pan-Turkism

Ankara’s active policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia is linked among other things with pan-Turkism, an idea which advocates the integration of the Turkic nations. It is continuously present in the political culture of the Turkish state, which sees itself as the leader of the Turkic community as a whole. Establishing social contacts and building a positive image for Turkey are important elements of its approach. The power of the concept of pan-Turkism nationwide results from its links with Turkish nationalism, which has a state-building effect, and from a cross-party consensus regarding the region’s importance to Turkey’s foreign policy.

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On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reinforced the sense of threat from Russia in the Baltic states, and spurred them to speed up the implementation of their national defence policies. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia decided to boost their military spending and adapt their security objectives to the changing situation. The experience of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population prompted the three countries to take steps aimed at ensuring that they could defend their entire national territories from day one of a possible attack. The new objectives of their security and defence policies are based on three pillars: achieving defence spending of at least 3% of GDP, securing the greater presence of allied forces, and fast-tracking technical modernisation combined with the development of their own armed forces and the expansion of their military infrastructure.

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Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Energiewende

Germany’s seaports are facing a crisis. Their freight traffic volumes have been decreasing for years, and last year they dropped to levels not seen in two decades. Due to weakening competitiveness, structural issues, a failure to modernise and expand transport infrastructure (mainly railways), as well as insufficient digitalisation and automation, German ports are losing customers both domestic and foreign to rivals from neighbouring countries, including ports in the North Sea (Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Amsterdam), the Baltic Sea (Gdańsk, Gdynia and Klaipėda) and even the Adriatic Sea (Trieste and Koper). Furthermore, the Energiewende envisages that ports should be transformed into energy hubs, which poses additional challenges for them.

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A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania

Over the past year or so, Romania has seen a rapid increase in the popularity of radical and Eurosceptic right-wing parties which are unwilling to provide military or financial support to Ukraine and sometimes openly advocate for cooperation with Russia. According to polls, the political forces that represent these views could garner over 25% of the Romanian electorate’s votes in total. The largest party on this part of the political scene is the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the fourth strongest force in the Romanian parliament. Currently, it enjoys up to 20% support and is competing for the second position (after the Social Democratic Party – PSD) with the National Liberal Party (PNL), which until recently was the main right-wing representative in Romanian politics. At the same time, the popularity of the pro-Russian S.O.S. România party has surged, as it has gained about 6% of supporters in recent months.

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Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Author(s): Marcin Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; European Union

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the European Union’s approach to Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Over the last two years, it has become more important for the EU to maintain this region’s stability and harness its potential in energy and transportation. During this period, both sides have developed a model of regular political contacts at the highest level, updated their strategy for cooperation and launched new economic projects. These moves have been reinforced by complementary steps of the EU’s individual member states, mainly Germany and France. EU-Central Asia relations have been deepening despite the EU’s consistent criticism of the authoritarian nature of Central Asian governments.

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China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

Author(s): Ilona Gizińska,Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; China

As the European Union tightens its stance towards China while the latter continues its expansion in the e-mobility sector, Chinese-Hungarian relations have gained new momentum. After a decade of difficulties in implementing joint infrastructural projects, new investments by Chinese giants such as CATL and BYD are set to turn Hungary into a manufacturing hub for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and one of the world’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries. Hungary is also ready to deepen its economic relations with China despite the de-risking policy that the European Commission has advocated.

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A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Orthodox Church; Russia

Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) have supported the war and justified Russia’s aggressive policy since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. There have been very few voices criticising the invasion among the clergy, and any such instances of criticism have been consistently suppressed due to censorship within the church and the state. Over the past few weeks, the ROC’s position has become even more unequivocal and radical. On 27 March, the World Russian People’s Council (Всемирный Русский Народный Собор), an organisation associated with the ROC and chaired by Patriarch Kirill, published a policy paper in which the war in Ukraine was called a “holy war”. The document identified the “West immersed in Satanism” as the main enemy of Russia and the Russian people and one which poses a threat not only to them but also to the entire Russian civilisation and Christian religion, from which it (the West) has turned away.

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Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Bundeswehr; Germany

The news that Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee has sparked a debate in Germany about the country’s future cooperation with the US. At present, concern about sustaining American military engagement in Europe, including the continuation of aid to Ukraine, is the predominant topic in this debate. However, there are more challenges to come: Germany is also worried that the US will start criticising it again for its trade surpluses and underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.

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Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine

An agreement between the EU and Ukraine on the partial liberalisation of the carriage of freight by road, which was signed in June 2022, has caused a major transformation of this market. On the one hand, it accelerated the Ukrainian economy’s shift towards the West, which resulted in an increase in Ukraine’s trade with the EU. On the other hand, it contributed to a rapid rise in the quantity of the bilateral carriage of freight by road carried out by Ukrainian freight forwarders. This, in turn, affected the segment of Central European transport companies, which concentrated on handling trade with Eastern European countries.

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Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Author(s): Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; EU

Turkey has been a political challenge for the EU for more than a decade now. This stems from the widening gap between them caused by factors such as the evolution of the Turkish political model and its approach to international conflicts. As a consequence, the process of Ankara’s integration with the EU has remained frozen for years; successive reports from the European Commission evaluating its progress in the enlargement process have been strongly critical, which has only aggravated the existing disputes.

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Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: State-Khorasan; Krasnogorsk; post-Soviet Central Asian states

The attack on the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk on 22 March which claimed the lives of 139 individuals was another spectacular terrorist attack carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in recent months. The previous attacks happened in Iran, Turkey and other countries, while those planned in Germany, Sweden and other locations were thwarted. These developments indicate that the organisation has modified its strategy, which until recently had focused on Afghanistan. They also suggest that ISIS-K has major potential for generating threats. A unique feature of the present situation is the rapid increase in the participation of citizens of post-Soviet Central Asian states (mainly Tajikistan). However this mainly results from circumstances within Russia itself, which foster radicalisation. The risk of new attacks prepared or inspired by ISIS-K should be viewed as high.

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Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; decarbonisation

Germany has launched the implementation of a new, innovative programme to support the decarbonisation of its energy-intensive industries. The use of the so-called carbon contracts for difference will, for the first time, make it possible to subsidise not only investments in new installations but also the current operational costs, as the state intends to cover the difference between the costs of conventional and low-carbon energy production until the latter becomes more profitable. In line with Berlin’s concept, this decision is expected to bring a breakthrough in the decarbonisation of its industry, and also to enable German companies to gain competitive advantage, collect know-how, and improve & commercialise new technologies which are viewed as future-proof.

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