Series:Center for the Study of Democracy - CSD Policy Briefs

CSD Policy Brief № 76: The Management of Frozen and Forfeited Assets in Bulgaria.

Политически брифинг № 76 на CSD: Управление на обезпечени и отнети активи в България

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Civil forfeiture of illegally acquired assets is one of the most important tools in the fight against crime. Forfeiture is used by state authorities to strip criminals of their illicit proceeds, thereby preventing them from expanding illegal activities and reinvesting their proceeds into the legal economy. A secondary benefit of forfeiture is that forfeited property, or the proceeds of its sale, may be used to provide specialised services for the benefit of victims of crime. Moreover, the social re-use of forfeited criminal assets, which are transferred to local municipal authorities or non-governmental organizations, may serve as setting a public example for crime groups and is key in achieving transparency in the fight against crime.

CSD Policy Brief № 78: Trafficking for Sexual Exploitation in Bulgaria. Criminal Finances and Capacity for Financial Investigations,

Политически брифинг № 78 на CSD: ТРАФИКЪТ НА ХОРА ЗА СЕКСУАЛНА ЕКСПЛОАТАЦИЯ В БЪЛГАРИЯ: ФИН АНС ОВИ АСПЕКТИ И ПРАНЕТО НА ПАРИ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Trafficking in human beings (THB) for the purpose of sexual exploitation has become one of the largest Bulgarian criminal markets since the beginning of the new millennium. After the lifting of Schengen visas for Bulgarian nationals in 2001, Bulgaria became a major country of origin for the trafficking in human beings exploited in the EU. THB and prostitution not only generate huge incomes for Bulgarian organised crime but also have detrimental social and economic impact on local communities. // There is an urgent need to develop effective mechanisms for coordination between criminal and financial investigations within the prosecution, as well as with the other relevant institutions.

CSD Policy Brief № 79: Decentralisation and Democratisation of the Bulgarian Electricity Sector. Bringing the Country Closer to the EU Climate and Energy Core,

Политически брифинг № 79 на CSD: Децентрализация и демократизация на българския електроенергиен сектор: ПОСТИГАНЕ НА основните цели на Европ ейския съюз по отношение на енергетиката и климата

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The first-generation renewable energy policy in Bulgaria was mismanaged to the benefit of a few politically well-connected companies and individuals unleashing a popular backlash against green energy. A low-hanging fruit to decarbonise the electricity sector would be the exploitation of Bulgaria’s enormous potential for decentralised power generation through renewable energy sources. Decentralisation of power supply would empower households and contribute to the decline of energy poverty. Bulgaria has a long-term potential capacity for decentralized PV-based power generation of more than 5.4 TWh per year, one-seventh of the current power consumption in the country.

CSD Policy Brief No. 83: Standards for Forced-Return Monitoring in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief No. 83: Standards for Forced-Return Monitoring in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The issue of forced-return monitoring is a constituent part of the common European return policy, which is regarded as one of the highest priorities of the common EU migration policy. A primary objective of the EU return policy is to scale up return rates in proportion to the total number of return decisions issued through strengthening the Member States’ return capacity, as well as in cooperation with and by providing support to the countries of origin and transit.

CSD Policy Brief No. 85: The Kremlin Playbook: Тhe Movie.

CSD Policy Brief No. 85: The Kremlin Playbook: Тhe Movie.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Kremlin Playbook 2: The Enablers revealed how Russia has developed and sustained state capture networks in Europe to enable the expansion of its economic and political influence. // Austria has been one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe. Russia has increased its economic footprint in the country significantly over the last decade. Russian entities have rechanneled billions of euro in Russia-owned banks in Austria. The latter received an exemption from the European sanctions to continue operating within the Eurozone system and facilitate loans and deposit operations involving Russian entities.

CSD Policy Brief № 86: The Competitiveness of the Bulgarian Economy 2019.

Политически брифинг № 86 на CSD: КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТТА НА БЪЛГАРСКАТА ИКОНОМИКА 2019

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

In 2019, Bulgaria has regained one position compared to the previous year in the economic competitiveness ranking of the World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY), published by the Institute for Management Development (IMD). Bulgaria’s Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) is IMD’s partner for the country. Bulgaria ranks 48th out of 63 economies. This is only a marginal improvement and remains significantly lower compared to its pre-crisis achievement of 2009 (38th place)

CSD Policy Brief № 91: Use of Corruption and the Illicit Market of Tobacco Products. Driving Factors and Trends.

Политически брифинг № 91 на CSD: Корупционният натиск и незаконният пазар на тютюневи изделия – движещи фактори и тенденции

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Surveys of organised crime related to the illicit tobacco market in Bulgaria, conducted over the last 20 years, show an extremely intensive use of various corruptive practices at all levels of illicit trade. The record low level achieved at the end of 2019 - 3.3% according to the EPS, gave rise to a discussion regarding the risks of the market for illegal tobacco products growing again. // Expert estimates stipulate that unless there is an extremely dramatic change in taxation policy similar to these in 2006 or the 2009-2010 period, no significant shocks should be expected. The current analysis shows that criminal networks still active in the illicit trade in tobacco products have almost been completely destroyed at all levels. The fragmented residues that are still functioning do not have the capacity for significant expansion. In addition, market research shows that there has been a radical change in the attitude of Bulgarian consumers who have lost their habit of intensively searching for illegal tobacco products.

CSD Policy Brief No. 97: The Chinese Economic Footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. Impact on Energy Transition and Climate.

CSD Policy Brief No. 97: The Chinese Economic Footprint in Central and Eastern Europe. Impact on Energy Transition and Climate.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past decade China has launched and promoted its first global infrastructure and economic development platform – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It seeks to link China with Europe and countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. The BRI binds the countries along its way in large-scale China-financed infrastructure projects, which enhance China’s economic and political leverage. Around USD 14 billion in Chinese funds have entered the Central and Eastern European region in the form of grants, development loans, mergers and acquisition of domestic assets and concession agreements. To expand its economic influence in CEE, China has exploited a number of domestic governance deficits including lack of transparency of intergovernmental agreements, circumvention of national competition and public procurement law, and inconsistency with EU objectives. // The Policy Brief makes a comprehensive overview of the different patterns of Chinese economic influence. It measures the main indicators for the Chinese economic footprint in 12 CEE countries. The brief zooms in on the impact of Chinese investments on the overall quality of climate policies as well as provides targeted policy measures on countering the malign aspects of the Chinese economic presence.

CSD Policy Brief № 99: Disinformation Narratives in the 2021 Parliamentary Elections.

Политически брифинг № 99 на CSD: ЧЕТИРИ ПОПУЛЯРНИ (ДЕЗИНФОРМАЦИОННИ) ПОСЛАНИЯ ПО ВРЕМЕ НА КАМПАНИЯТА ЗА ПАРЛАМЕНТАРНИ ИЗБОРИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ ПРЕЗ 2021 Г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Keywords: fake news; disinformation;

The Bulgarian society has long been exposed to disinformation narratives in traditional and social media. The deterioration of media freedom on the back of the oligarchization of the media market has undermined the quality and objectivity of journalism. The media environment has been further undermined by the indiscriminate penetration of social media networks, which algorithms have further amplified sensationalist disinformation. This policy brief zooms in on the prevalence and connections to the pre-election campaign of four popular (disinformation) narratives related to conspiracy theories about COVID-19, to the support of the large Russian energy projects, the opposition to the European Green Deal and the growing anti-EU sentiments in the Bulgarian society.

CSD Policy Brief No. 100: Kremlin’s Anti-Democratic Messaging and Disinformation in Europe.

CSD Policy Brief No. 100: Kremlin’s Anti-Democratic Messaging and Disinformation in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Democracy in Europe has encountered a wide array of internal and external challenges in recent years. The continuing rule of law problems and democratic backsliding, the rise of domestic populism and extremism, disruptive social media and technological developments, and authoritarian-state-driven influence operations have undermined democratic governance on the continent. // An effective and all-encompassing response to Russian (and other authoritarian-state) disinformation would require an integrated, multi-stakeholder approach based on cooperation among policy-makers, civil society, and European/international institutional actors. Achieving such a whole-of-society approach to countering Russian disinformation in Europe calls for much more coordination, flexibility, and swiftness of responses.

CSD Policy Brief № 101: Green Recovery Pathways to Bulgaria’s Carbon Neutrality by 2050.

Политически брифинг № 101 на CSD: ценарии за възстановяване и постигане на въглероден неутралитет на България до 2050 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The least costly way to decarbonize is to trans¬form the electricity supply mix. This would mean the fastest possible phase-out of lignite-fired power plants, a transformational shift in Bulgaria’s renewable energy sector, leveraging private investments in new technologies such as offshore wind and geothermal energy, and the accelerated electrification of buildings, industry and mobility. The uptake of low-carbon technologies requires the modernization of the power grid and more investments in sustainable mobility infrastructure. In addition, the successful delivery of the green transformation process necessitates adequate monitoring procedures and control mechanisms to measure the performance of the different policy measures and ensure their compliance with the rule of law. // This Policy Action Document proposes targeted sectoral policy measures to facilitate the implementation of three decarbonization pathways with a 2050 horizon. It also promotes the need for changes in public policies and the regulatory framework to accelerate the transition process. The document aims to contribute to the development of a consistent green recovery strategy for Bulgaria in line with the objectives of the European Green Deal.

CSD Policy Brief No. 102: Overcoming Youth Vulnerabilities to Far-Right Narratives.

CSD Policy Brief No. 102: Overcoming Youth Vulnerabilities to Far-Right Narratives.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Over the past decade, European countries have experienced a resurgence of far-right extremism and the internet has played an important role in facilitating this growth. The internet and social media are potent tools for the spread of extremist propaganda, especially among youth for whom these media constitute an integral feature of daily life. In recognition of this reality, far-right organizations have widely utilized social media to appeal to and reach out this target demographic. The importance of fighting radicalisation and terrorism is highlighted by the 2015-2020 European Agenda on Security. Together with the establishment of the Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN) in 2011, a number of actions have been taken to counter right-wing violent extremism and terrorism. // The current publication discusses the opportunities that strategic communication brings as a tool to counteracting violent narratives and achieving resilience among youth and puts forward a number of lessons learned through the implementation of the Find Another Way communications campaign.

CSD Policy Brief No. 103: Capture Proofing the Energy Sector in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of TurkStream.

CSD Policy Brief No. 103: Capture Proofing the Energy Sector in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of TurkStream.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

TurkStream, construction of which was completed on 4 July 2021, will increase energy security risks in CEE and will divert scarce resources away from productive investment in energy diversification and green transition. Tellingly, Bulgaria, for example, commenced construction of the strategically important, yet decades in the making, interconnector with Greece (IGB) only after it started laying down TurkStream pipelines. As a result, TurkStream has already crowded out alternative LNG and Azeri gas supply from the regional gas market.

CSD Policy Brief No. 104: Carbon Neutral Bulgaria 2050: A Cheat Sheet for Policy-Makers.

CSD Policy Brief No. 104: Carbon Neutral Bulgaria 2050: A Cheat Sheet for Policy-Makers.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Bulgarian government needs to deliver a true green transformation of the national economy in its pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050. This is an unprecedented challenge. The vast resources available through the EU’s funding instruments will not be enough without a strategic vision and leadership. This is more than an economic and environmental challenge. Energy security is also at stake, with the single greatest risk for Bulgaria coming from energy poverty. The policy brief outlines the key action vectors for Bulgarian policymakers, without which it would be impossible to develop a green recovery strategy that will reach the objectives of the European Green Deal, while also ensuring energy security. Carbon neutrality for Bulgaria by 2050 can be achieved and it means clean electrification, resilient and modern power grid, and a comprehensive strategy for tackling energy poverty and enabling vulnerable consumers to become active participants in the transition. Most of all, the transition requires more effective governance and rule of law regimes.

CSD Policy Brief No. 105: Disinformation Narratives in the November 2021 Bulgarian Elections Campaign: Key Actors and Amplifiers.

CSD Policy Brief No. 105: Disinformation Narratives in the November 2021 Bulgarian Elections Campaign: Key Actors and Amplifiers.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

On November 14, 2021 Bulgaria is voting for president, and, for a third time this year, for parliament. Elections are happening in the midst of a perfect storm of crises: COVID-19 pandemic is at the height of its fourth wave with deaths at record high in global comparison, political instability and polarization have reached pitch high levels, and skyrocketing energy prices threaten social peace. This renders the country uniquely vulnerable to propaganda and disinformation . The deterioration of media freedom and the lack of any credible public policy responses to disinformation and social media polarization, have exposed voters to toxic cocktails of local and foreign propaganda ahead of the elections . This rapid reaction assessment, seeks to improve the understanding of the link between the use of disinformation messaging techniques and popular attitudes on key contemporary issues during the November 2021 election campaigns. It conducts a brief overview of the main social media communication patterns of political parties and candidates and tries to reveal possible influence over voting patterns.

CSD Policy Brief №. 106: Towards an Inclusive Green Recovery in Bulgaria.

Политически брифинг № 106 на CSD: ЗА ЦЯЛОСТНО ЗЕЛЕНО ВЪЗСТАНОВЯВАНЕ НА БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The European Green Deal is potentially the strongest instrument for reversing climate change and for increasing the energy security of the EU and its members. Yet, the drive towards decarbonization supported by funding from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the Next Generation EU will have to overcome the considerable headwinds of climate skepticism and opposition in EU societies, fueled by domestic and foreign political pressure. // The EU has provided the Bulgarian government with unprecedentedly large resources for decarbonization. But without strategic vision, they would line the pockets of the country’s powerful energy lobbyists with strong links to Russia. The last version of the NRRP sent for approval to the European Commission was a step in the right direction. The Plan has a better macroeco№mic basis than previous versions, and the focus on in№vation and the energy transition is much stronger. However, the new NRRP still does №t rein in state capture practices in the energy sector, which have prevented the low-carbon transition from taking firm roots so far.

Политически брифинг № 107 на CSD: БИТОВА ПРЕСТЪПНОСТ И ДОВЕРИЕ В ПОЛИЦИЯТА

Политически брифинг № 107 на CSD: БИТОВА ПРЕСТЪПНОСТ И ДОВЕРИЕ В ПОЛИЦИЯТА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The low trust of Bulgarian citizens in police authorities has a direct impact on the level of reporting of criminal incidents by victims of crime. The low levels of crime reporting create a systemic problem, as they impede effective investigation and the administration of justice, which poses the risk of increase in conventional crime. // The analysis examines the main factors behind these trends, in particular the flaws in crime registration by the police, and recommends measures for promoting civic activism and trust in police authorities.

CSD Policy Brief №. 108: EU Energy and Climate Security Strategy to Counter the Russian Aggression in Europe.

CSD Policy Brief №. 108: EU Energy and Climate Security Strategy to Counter the Russian Aggression in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia, even when its foreign policy undermines European security, is № longer defensible. The Russian aggression in Europe and the critical dependence on Russian oil and gas imports have clearly demonstrated the need for a new European energy and climate security strategy. European governments are №t only struggling to guarantee a reliable and cheap supply of energy but are also failing to overcome a fossil fuel lock-in. // The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian eco№my in 8 to 11 months. This needs to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season. In the long run, a full fossil fuel phase-out is the most sustainable way to improve energy and climate security. Decarbonizing energy markets will also deliver a blow to the Kremlin’s eco№mic and political influence in Europe.

CSD Policy Brief №. 109: Technological and Policy Innoation Scenarios for the Low-Carbon Transition of the Bulgarian Energy Sector.

Политически брифинг № 109 на CSD: СЦЕНАРИИ ЗА ТЕХНОЛОГИЧНИ И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИ ИНОВАЦИИ ЗА ОСЪЩЕСТВЯВАНЕ НА ЕНЕРГИЙНИЯ ПРЕХОД В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Bulgaria still lacks clearly defined long-term goals and a transparent framework for decision-making regarding the country’s energy and climate security policy. This increases the country’s economic vulnerability and undermines the feasibility of its transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050. The ongoing energy crisis exacerbated by the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine further raises the need for an updated energy and climate security strategy that would improve the country’s energy independence and diminish the role of fossil fuels for the local economy. // This analysis summarizes the policy implications for Bulgaria from the insights from two studies based on independent modelling showing the impact from the coal phase out and the lignite power replacement with renewable energy sources by 2030. The assessment also discusses the scenarios for the feasibility of the uptake of renewable energy, hydrogen and power storage technoogies by 2050.

CSD Policy Brief №. 110: Tackling the Energy and Climate Security Conundrum in Southeast Europe.

CSD Policy Brief №. 110: Tackling the Energy and Climate Security Conundrum in Southeast Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed Europe’s most painful energy and climate security vulnerabilities. It has exacerbated the energy crisis that has been raging since 2021, while also showcasing the excessive reliance of many EU Member States on Russian fossil fuel exports. Southeast Europe (SEE) is especially vulnerable to energy and climate security risks due to a myriad of factors. Tackling the region’s comprehensive energy security risks without comprising the climate transition process requires strong political will and the design of a new more ambitious energy and climate security strategy based on a comprehensive data-driven policy instruments such as European Energy and Climate Security Risk Index (ECSRI) that would enable the comparative monitoring of EU and national progress on a number of energy security, climate transition and good governance indicators. This policy brief pilots the ECSRI for Bulgaria, Romania and Greece as some of the most vulnerable EU Member States to energy and climate security risks.