Series:Center for the Study of Democracy - CSD Policy Briefs

CSD Policy Brief No. 42: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria in 2013

CSD Policy Brief No. 42: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria in 2013

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English,Bulgarian

Accurate understanding of the dynamics of the hidden economy is essential for improving public and private sector management. In the case of Bulgaria, the high level of hidden economic activities signals many deficiencies in the functioning of the public institutions and the rule of law, and undermines the economic development of the country. Limiting the grey economy ought to be an issue of imminent priority for policy makers. The recent unparalleled global growth of digitalization of economic activities provides ample opportunities to reduce hidden cash flows and directly contribute to positive economic development of the country. Comprehensive, sustained reforms focusing on improvements in market and administrative efficiency are needed to facilitate the process of economic convergence and limit the negative effects of the hidden economy in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief No. 60: Media (In)dependence in Bulgaria: Risks and Trends

CSD Policy Brief No. 60: Media (In)dependence in Bulgaria: Risks and Trends

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The role of Bulgarian media in public life came under scrutiny after several media outlets were used as an instrument for triggering political crises and for political engineering (2013 – 2014). At that time, the Bulgarian media market was experiencing the impact of two negative trends. On the one hand, the economic crisis of 2009 – 2013 had cut advertising revenues by half. On the other, the old models of media financing were diminished by the use of digital technologies and the explosive growth of social networks and mobile communications. The loss of financial sustainability by the media presented unique opportunities for Bulgarian oligarchic groups. By accumulating a significant share of the media market, they reached an unprecedented level of political influence (including direct influence on the legislative, executive and judicial powers). The media was used as an instrument for state capture that could present severe security and economic risks.

CSD Policy Brief No. 61: Drug Users in Prisons: Norway's Experiences and Bulgaria's Challenges

CSD Policy Brief No. 61: Drug Users in Prisons: Norway's Experiences and Bulgaria's Challenges

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

For all criminal offences related to drugs, even for possession of small quantities intended for personal use, the main sanction according to Bulgarian criminal law is imprisonment. Unlike in Norway, non-custodial penalties in Bulgaria such as probation have extremely limited scope of application for drug-related offences. At the same time, other alternatives to imprisonment are virtually non-existent.

CSD Policy Brief No. 62: Energy Security Risks and the Case for Natural Gas Diversification

CSD Policy Brief No. 62: Energy Security Risks and the Case for Natural Gas Diversification

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The policy brief analyses the energy security and governance risks. The authors underline that: - Bulgarian ranking has improved significantly, jumping from 73rd to 58th place, narrowing the gap with the average OECD results. - Since Bulgaria receives all of its natural gas from one source and via one pipeline, it is imperative that the government’s decisions for the initiation of future energy projects are based on the projects’ potential to diversify supply sources and ensure an uninterrupted energy supply. - The efforts to diversify the gas supply by building the Interconnector Greece - Bulgaria (IGB) have stalled in spite of external financing, existing contractual obligations with the Shah Deniz consortium and due to lack of administrative capacity and state capture from domestic and foreign interests. - The European Commission’s efforts to integrate the SEE region into the EU internal market and diversify its gas supply away from a single supplier have started to pay off. The liberalization of the cross-border capacities along the Transbalkan pipeline, previously fully reserved by Gazprom, is now open for competitive bidding. - The liberalization of regional natural gas trading and the completion of the interconnector pipelines with Greece and Romania would advance Bulgaria’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Gazprom by reducing the country’s gas import costs, and improve the country’s security of supply and the affordability of residential gasification initiatives.

CSD Policy Brief No. 64: Hidden Economy in Bulgaria: 2015 – 2016

CSD Policy Brief No. 64: Hidden Economy in Bulgaria: 2015 – 2016

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In Bulgaria the high level of hidden economy undermines the economic development of the country and requires serious and persistent political attention. The unprecedented growth in the field of digitization of economic activities, the convergence between some of them, and the emergence of brand new services creates an opportunity for achieving a desirable environment, which may reduce the hidden cash flows and boost the economic development of the country. Comprehensive reforms focused on the functioning of the market mechanisms and administrative effectiveness are needed in order to promote the process of economic convergence within the European Union and limit the harmful effects of the hidden economy in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief No. 65: The Wind that Blows from the East: Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 65: The Wind that Blows from the East: Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Russia; Influence; Central and Eastern Europe

The topic of Russia’s influence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has grown in significance after the eruption of the Ukrainian crisis in 2013. The US and EU policy and research communities have scrambled to explain the potential scenarios, tools, and impacts of the Russian influence, as well as propose possible solutions to minimizing its negative effects on European unity. This policy brief, which summarizes the key findings from the joint study of the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe, presents a model for understanding the impact of Russia’s economic influence in Central and Eastern Europe in five case study countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Serbia, and Slovakia), and its relationship to the region’s general decline in governance standards. The study estimates that on average, Russia’s economic footprint in five of the most targeted by the Kremlin CEE countries has ranged from about 11 percent of the economy (in the cases of Hungary and Slovakia) to an astonishing 22 percent in Bulgaria. After 2008 the Russian leadership has aggressively deployed its resource-based resurgent economic power in combination with old time security networks and skillful use of traditional soft power appeal to exploit and further strategic vulnerabilities across the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Russia has also cultivated an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making. This web resembles a network-flow model, which we describe as an “unvirtuous circle” of Russian influence leading to “state capture.”

CSD Policy Brief No. 66: Dynamics of Conventional Crime in Bulgaria 2015 – 2016

CSD Policy Brief No. 66: Динамика на конвенционалната престъпност 2015 – 2016 г.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Keywords: CSD Policy Briefs; Center for the Study of Democracy; Dynamics; Conventional; Crime; Bulgaria

Crime rates in 2015 continue their downward trend with a decrease of 0.4% compared to 2014 levels. It must be noted, however, that the level of reporting crime to the authorities falls compared to officially registered numbers by the MoI in 2015. This means that latent crime is on the rise, which signifies a drop in public confidence in the MoI. One of the main reason for this discrepancy are the so-called police filters, which lead to diverging levels of officially recorded conventional crimes and crimes reported by the citizenry. These are some of the results of the National Crime Survey for 2015, presented in the current publication.

CSD Policy Brief No. 11: Bulgarian Experience and Measuring Corruption in the European Union

CSD Policy Brief No. 11: Българският опит и измерването на корупцията в Европейския съюз

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

In recent years, curbing corruption is a top priority of most international institutions. The European Union attaches paramount importance to the problem of corruption in the two successive waves of accession in 2004 and 2007. The pre-accession process has prompted the European Commission to develop its own mechanism to assess the progress of anti-corruption reforms. Like many other key areas for the functioning of the internal European market, the development of EU anti-corruption policy has logically led to the creation of a single European methodology for defining standards for measuring corruption.

CSD Policy Brief No. 12: The Competitiveness of the Bulgarian Economy 2007

CSD Policy Brief No. 12: Конкурентоспособност на българската икономика 2007

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

With the partnership of CSD this year Bulgaria was included for the second time in the World's oldest and most comprehensive annual report on competitiveness, the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2007. It has been published without interruption since 1989 by IMD (International Institute for Management Development). Bulgaria’s competitiveness was covered and ranked together with 54 other leading world economies. This year Bulgaria came 41st on the scoreboard, surpassing Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, and Croatia among others. The position is an achievement in its own right, considering that the country is measured up against the champion nations setting the trends in the world economic competition. In 2007 Bulgaria has largely kept its position compared to the previous year, but its business efficiency has declined. Meanwhile, the country’s overall economic performance has improved.

CSD Policy Brief No. 13: Effective Policies Targeting the Corruption – Organized Crime Nexus in Bulgaria: Closing Down Duty-Free Outlets

CSD Policy Brief No. 13: Ефективни политики за противодействие на корупцията и организираната престъпност в България: закриване на безмитната търговия

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Duty-free trade-related smuggling of excise goods has been one of the most potent and sustainable sources of political corruption in Bulgaria for the last fifteen years. The operation of land border area outlets has been a major channel for flooding the Bulgarian market with tons of illegal cigarettes and alcohol and the sale of millions of gallons of excise-free petrol. The resulting profit, running into hundreds of millions each year, has been funding many a Bulgarian party and has become the foundation of untouchable political oligarchies. The policy brief examines duty-free trade in Bulgaria in regard to turnover and tax revenue losses from the operation of the duty-free outlets. It also analyses the regulation of duty-free trade in Bulgaria which bears all the marks of a state capture. The brief presents possible courses of action towards reducing the negative effects of duty-free trade.

CSD Policy Brief No. 14: Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement along Bulgaria's Borders: The Impact of EU Accession

CSD Policy Brief No. 14: Правосъдие и правоприлагане по границите на България след присъединяването към ЕС

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Enhanced criminal justice and improved cross-border cooperation between judicial and law enforcement authorities are essential for the EU and its Member States in order to effectively respond to the increasing threat of cross-border criminality. The last two EU enlargements resulted in significant changes in the Union’s external borders. Some of the countries that used to have such borders are now neighbors to other EU Member States. Their responsibilities regarding the security at the external borders are gradually transferred to new Member States which have become the outermost countries of the Union. The duties of these countries on protecting the external borders are yet to increase substantially. Further to Bulgaria's accession to the European Union, the country's frontiers with Turkey, Macedonia and Serbia, as well as its Black Sea border, have become external borders of the EU. Hence, border crossing-related criminal offences and customs violations no longer represent a problem of Bulgarian national security alone: they have turned into a problem of EU security. This policy brief is a follow up to the 2007 CSD report Reinforcing Criminal Justice in Border Districts and examines the attitude of and measures undertaken by the relevant stakeholders as regards the policy recommendations formulated by the report.

CSD Policy Brief No. 19: Bulgaria 2020 Energy Strategy: comments and suggestions for better governance

CSD Policy Brief No. 19: Енергийна стратегия на България 2020: коментар и предложения за по-добро управление

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Energy is a key sector for Bulgarian economy, both because of its size and because of its importance to national competitiveness. This requires decisions to be made on the basis of reliable and accessible data, broad based discussions and clearly identified strategic priorities, which rely on established practices and mechanisms for good governance. The latest strategic document at national level is the Bulgarian Energy Strategy from 2002. Without updating it, the Bulgarian government has committed in the years following its EU accession to substantial investments with long-term impact on the energy sector, which is a vivid example of failure in good governance. Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union (EU), climate change negotiations, the financial and economic crisis and Bulgaria’s inclusion in several international investment projects have changed the conditions for the development of Bulgaria’s energy sector. These latest developments require updating of the national energy strategy and providing for better and transparent governance in the sector.

CSD Policy Brief No. 20: Policies to Counter the Effects of the Economic Crisis: Hidden Economy Dynamics 2009

CSD Policy Brief No. 20: Политики за противодействие на икономическата криза: динамика на скритата икономика 2009

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The policy brief focuses on the impact of the governemnt measures put forward to counter the economic crisis and their effect on the hidden economy. The hidden economy has been a central topic for discussion in the public space upon each amendment to the economic legislation and particularly before elections or the passing of the national budget. Nevertheless, aside from the Annual Hidden Economy Index released by the Center for the Study of Democracy and a few sporadic analyses by other non-governmental, academic and business organizations, there is a lack of an adequate government system of ex ante and ex post impact assessment of the proposed measures to fight hidden activities of the wider economy. The adjustments of GDP done by the National Statistical Institute aiming to include hidden economy in the system of national accounts are not made public and do not serve as a basis for decision-making. Thus, public debates on hidden economy become little more than displays of rhetorical skills or actually serve completely different agendas rather than the implementation of measures to curb its negative impact.

CSD Policy Brief No. 21: Investigation of Money Laundering: An Institutional Approach

CSD Policy Brief No. 21: Разследването на прането на пари: институционален подход

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Organized crime in Bulgaria is quick to adapt to the new realities and by and large enters the legal economy by legalizing capital accrued from criminal activities. This process poses a significant threat to the country: while in developed democracies money-laundering is carried out through the complex financial operations or investments in the legal economy (for instance through the purchasing of real estate and movables), in Bulgaria money-laundering takes on a specific form – political investment. The policy brief makes an overview of the organized crime, corruption and money-laundering in Bulgaria. According to the authors, in spite of several legislative initiatives and a growing amount of prosecutorial decrees for money-laundering in the last decade, the prosecution for this type of crime in Bulgaria remains insignificant. The complexity of the crime, the objective difficulties for its investigation, as well as the necessary inter-institutional approach on an international level to combat such activities explain the relatively small number of prosecutions.

CSD Policy Brief No. 22: Energy Sector in Bulgaria

CSD Policy Brief No. 22: Енергийният сектор на България

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The brief "The Energy Sector of Bulgaria" is elaborated jointly by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Atlantic Council of US. It presents the main challenges that the energy sector in Bulgaria faces. By virtue of its geography, Bulgaria finds itself in a difficult nexus, drawn into Eurasia’s contentious energy geopolitics and as a European Union member, involved in the Union’s fragmented energy policy and complex regulatory, energy efficiency and climate change objectives. That position is challenging, but it also presents decision-makers in Sofia with opportunities.

CSD Policy Brief No. 23: Energy Efficiency in Bulgaria: The Case for Market-Based Approach and Transparency

CSD Policy Brief No. 23: Енергийната ефективност в България: към пазарен подход и прозрачност

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Measured by using market currency exchange rates, Bulgaria has consistently ranked as the most energy intensive economy in the EU: in 2007, it used over a ton of oil equivalent to produce 1,000 Euro worth of gross product. Measured by using purchasing power parity, Bulgaria’s energy intensity is still dismal, around 600 kg of oil equivalent per 1,000 Euro of product. Even though still negligible by any standard, Bulgaria’s energy efficiency has actually improved by about 50% since 1996 and has been on an uninterrupted path to a change for the better by about 5% per year. Overall, the Bulgarian economy seems to have completed the transition from heavy industry to less energy intensive light industry and thus already picked the low hanging fruit of natural gains in efficiency. The country is probably at a point, as some experts argue, from which onwards any additional gain in efficiency will have to be attained through advances in technologies of energy production, conversion, transportation, and use which will call for cost-effective approach and a strong incentive system.

CSD Policy Brief No. 58: Transparent Governance for Greater Energy Security in CEE

CSD Policy Brief No. 58: ПРОЗРАЧНОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ И ЭНЕРГОБЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ И ВОСТОЧНОЙ ЕВРОПЕ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Russian

The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The interruption of gas supplies to Europe as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian pricing dispute in 2009, the continuing Russian-Ukrainian crisis after the annexation of Crimea, and the EU-Russia controversies regarding the South Stream pipeline project, as well as Gazprom’s non-compliance with the EU regulations in several anti-trust cases in the past few years are the major cornerstones that shape the CEE energy security framework and policy options as the region remains heavily dependent on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear technology. At the same time, the fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. The current review of energy security risks in four selected CEE countries, two energy poor – Bulgaria and Serbia, and two energy-resourced– Romania and Ukraine, assesses the factual situation per se and the transparency and accountability of energy policy governance in the region.

CSD Policy Brief No. 58: Transparent Governance for Greater Energy Security in CEE

CSD Policy Brief No. 58: GESTIONAREA TRANSPARENTĂ ŞI SECURITATEA ENERGETICĂ ÎN EUROPA CENTRALĂ ŞI DE EST

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian

The national and regional energy security of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has become a hot topic of discussion in the EU recently, focusing the attention of experts, policy makers, and the general public on ongoing and future energy projects but also on the features of energy governance in these countries. The interruption of gas supplies to Europe as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian pricing dispute in 2009, the continuing Russian-Ukrainian crisis after the annexation of Crimea, and the EU-Russia controversies regarding the South Stream pipeline project, as well as Gazprom’s non-compliance with the EU regulations in several anti-trust cases in the past few years are the major cornerstones that shape the CEE energy security framework and policy options as the region remains heavily dependent on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear technology. At the same time, the fragile democratic traditions in the CEE countries, the existing networks of political protectionism and economic oligarchy, and the opaque business practices nurtured by corruption and links with organized crime, have been reinforced by the negative implications of Russian economic and geo-political influence. Russia has exploited its dominant position in the energy market and its long-term links with certain political and economic groups to shape political decisions across the region according to its own interests, but often to the detriment of the home country consumers. The current review of energy security risks in four selected CEE countries, two energy poor – Bulgaria and Serbia, and two energy-resourced– Romania and Ukraine, assesses the factual situation per se and the transparency and accountability of energy policy governance in the region.

CSD Policy Brief No. 63: Extortion in the field of organized crime: the vulnerability analysis approach

CSD Policy Brief No. 63: La extorsión en el ámbito de la delincuencia organizada: el enfoque de análisis de vulnerabilidades

Author(s): / Language(s): Spanish

Extortion racketeering has long been pointed out as the defining activity of organised crime. It has also been identified as one of the most effective tools used by organised crime in the accumulation of financial resources and the penetration of the legal economy. Although in recent years this crime has not been among the top listed organised crime threats in the strategic EU policy documents, it still remains ever present in European countries. The seriousness of the phenomenon has been recognised at the EU level and the crime has been listed in a number of EU legal acts in the field of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters.

CSD Policy Brief No. 96: Accelerating the Energy Transition in Bulgaria: A Roadmap to 2050

CSD Policy Brief No. 96: Accelerating the Energy Transition in Bulgaria: A Roadmap to 2050

Author(s): Martin Vladimirov,Radostina Primova,Mariya Trifonova / Language(s): English

Bulgaria has been caught between the EU’s net-zero carbon ambitions for 2030 and 2050 and the country’s slow democratisation and diffusion of renewables and energy efficiency. To develop effective policy measures, the Bulgarian government needs to draw evidence-based consistent decarbonisation pathways for each economic sector with annual targets for continuous monitoring. This is especially true considering that there is so far little connection between the government’s own strategic documents (i.e., the 2030 National Development Programme, the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the National Energy and Climate Plan) and the EU’s long-term objectives for a low-carbon transition. This Policy Brief plots Bulgaria’s options along three scenarios with a 2050 horizon using an innovative decarbonisation transition modelling instrument, called The Calculator. It helps bridge the gap between the complicated integrated climate and energy models and the practical dilemmas of policy-makers preparing Bulgaria’s long-term decarbonisation strategy.