Series:Center for the Study of Democracy - CSD Policy Briefs

CSD Policy Brief №. 131: Building Institutional Capacity Framework for Resilience to Disinformation in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief №. 131: Building Institutional Capacity Framework for Resilience to Disinformation in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

With the start of its war of aggression in Ukraine, the Kremlin has intensified its disinformation and political interference campaigns across Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern Europe. Using instruments of state capture, specifically focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance and banking, telecommunications, defence, and media, the Kremlin exploits and reinforces existing government vulnerabilities in these countries, in order to erode their governments’ Euro-Atlantic positions and public trust in democratic institutions and European policies and values. // The countries of CEE are particularly vulnerable to this threat, as some of them demonstrate alarmingly high levels of cognitive capture among the general population, political elites, and the media, swaying public opinion towards Russia and its authoritarian model. // Efforts to counter pro-Kremlin disinformation must extend beyond information operations and strategic communication to expose state and media capture across the region, and to develop and effectively implement new and enhanced institutional and regulatory frameworks that will decouple countries’ governance systems from Kremlin interests. To do it, Bulgaria must urgently develop a comprehensive legislative framework for the effective implementation of EU and international sanctions. // The following policy brief presents a concise picture of the short- and long-term governance challenges to the development of national counter-disinformation capacity, building upon the existing initiatives currently led by civil society, media, and the private sector.

CSD Policy Brief №. 133: Alternative Regional Just Transition Profile of Kyustendil.

Политически брифинг № 133 на CSD: АЛТЕРНАТИВЕН ПРОФИЛ НА СПРАВЕДЛИВИЯ ПРЕХОД В ОБЛАСТ КЮСТЕНДИЛ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Kyustendil will be considerably impacted by the green transition as it faces the challenges of slow new jobs creation and uptake of alternative business sectors. Despite this, it holds the highest decarbonisation employment potential that could account for at least 90% of coal related jobs in 2030, reaching 100% by 2050. Stepping on a comprehensive stakeholder consultations and survey, CSD’s current analysis zooms into the key socio-economic characteristics in the district, presenting an alternative perspective of the short- and long-term decarbonisation challenges and potential for economic transformation of Kyustendil district.

CSD Policy Brief №. 134: Alternative Regional Just Transition Profile of Pernik.

Политически брифинг № 134 на CSD: АЛТЕРНАТИВЕН ПРОФИЛ НА СПРАВЕДЛИВИЯ ПРЕХОД В ОБЛАСТ ПЕРНИК

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The district of Pernik would be fairly less impacted by the green transition. Pernik can accelerate the development of already thriv­ing local industries that could provide alternative em­ployment and economic development opportunities, such as the manufacturing of machinery, industrial equipment, and pharmaceutical and cosmetics manu­facturing. Stepping on a comprehensive stakeholder consultations and survey, CSD’s current analysis zooms into the key socio-economic characteristics of the district, presenting an alternative perspective of the short- and long-term decarbonisation challenges and potential for economic transformation of Pernik district.

CSD Policy Brief №. 135: Making Sanctions Work in the European Energy Sector.

CSD Policy Brief №. 135: Making Sanctions Work in the European Energy Sector.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-Russian sanctions; energy-dependency from Russia;

The energy crisis in Europe, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has demonstrated the need for the EU to develop and implement a coherent policy vision for the di­versification of energy supply and the decarbonisation of its economy, in line with the changing economic security risks and priorities. Since the Russian invasion, the EU has adopted 10 rounds of sanctions including a ban on the import of coal, crude oil, and oil derivatives with the aim of undermining the capability of the Kremlin’s oligarchic networks to fuel its war machine in Ukraine and beyond. However, the current sanctions do not seem to achieve the longer-term objective of strategic decou­pling from Russia. This policy brief exposes the key loopholes that allow Russia to continue exporting energy, including oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fuel. The analysis reveals why and how the EU should strengthen sanctions enforcement and consider expanding the scope of sanctions. Decoupling from Russia would not be possible without also targeting the state capture networks that have enabled strategic partnerships between Russian and European energy companies.

CSD Policy Brief №. 136: Moving Forward Together: Energy and Climate Security for Ukraine and Europe.

CSD Policy Brief №. 136: Moving Forward Together: Energy and Climate Security for Ukraine and Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-Russian sanctions; energy-dependency from Russia;

Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has led to a heavy humanitarian crisis on the European continent. Targeted missile strikes have destroyed half of the country’s energy infrastructure, causing rolling blackouts and critical service disruptions in the region. The war has also been the biggest test to Europe’s energy and climate security, following more than a decade of excessive dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports. Guaranteeing the security of energy supply and supporting Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian aggression is of utmost priority for Europe in the short term. In the medium-to-long term, the full integration and policy alignment between the EU and Ukraine needs to be completed as a foundation for the country’s sustainable economic development. This policy brief provides an overview of the evolution of energy and climate security risks in Ukraine before and after the Russian invasion, stepping on the results from CSD’s Energy and Climate Security Risk Index. It discusses how the Kremlin exploited critical governance gaps in Ukraine and the EU’s energy sector to weaken Ukraine’s capacity for resistance and Europe’s solidarity and unity in the face of war. It further offers insights and ideas about the most pressing policy priorities in view of Ukraine’s future reconstruction.

CSD Policy Brief №. 137: Bulgaria’s Reliance on Russian Oil: the Derogation and Beyond.

Политически брифинг № 137 на CSD: ЗАВИСИМОСТТА НА БЪЛГАРИЯ ОТ РУСКИ ПЕТРОЛ: ОТВЪД ДЕРОГАЦИЯТА

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Keywords: anti-Russian sanctions; energy-dependency from Russia;

The Bulgarian government should lift the derogation in EU Regulation (EU) № 833/2014, which allows Bulgaria to continue importing Russian crude oil until the end of 2024. Continuing the Russian monopoly power on the Bulgarian fuels market is by far the most critical risk to Bulgaria’s economic security. The Neftohim Burgas refinery, ultimately controlled by the Russian Lukoil, can operate efficiently without processing any Russian oil due to the ample availability of alternative crude oil grades within the Black Sea region, in addition to other sources in the Middle East and West Africa. This policy brief reviews possible scenarios for lifting the derogation. The worst-case scenario of a complete shutdown of the Neftohim refinery shows that any supply shock on the Bulgarian fuels market can be prevented with proper management of current reserves and the import infrastructure, which is now under Russian monopolistic control. The shutdown of the refinery can and must be avoided. The government should request a specific timeline and investment commitments from Lukoil for implementing the EU oil embargo, with full readiness at least 12 months before the current end date of the derogation, verified by an external audit from the Agency for State Financial Inspection. №n-compliance from Lukoil should trigger more robust measures such as putting Lukoil’s assets under state control.

Политически брифинг № 138 на CSD: НАЙ-ЛОГИЧНАТА СЛЕДВАЩА СТЪПКА КЪМ ЕНЕРГИЙНИЯ ПРЕХОД: РЕАЛИЗИРАНЕ НА ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ЗА ВЯТЪРНАТА ЕНЕРГИЯ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

CSD Policy Brief №. 138: The Lowest Hanging Fruit: Realising the Wind Energy Potential in Bulgaria

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Keywords: wind-enwergy in Bulgaira;

Wind generated electricity offers several advantages, including high capacity factors and resilience against seasonal variations, resulting in a relatively low Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Additionally, wind projects require less land acquisition and can complement other agricultural or economic activities. Wind energy plays a crucial role in stabilizing the power grid during periods of reduced sunlight, and during times of excess electricity supply, the surplus power can be utilized for hydrogen production in industries. The slow adoption of wind energy in Bulgaria can be primarily attributed to various governance shortcomings. These include frequent and unplanned changes in regulations, technical and administrative obstacles before grid access, opposition from local communities, land use and environmental conflicts, and a general lack of political commitment to accelerate the investments in the sector. // This policy brief is a brief overview of a detailed study overseen by the Austrian Institute of Technology assessing the technically achievable onshore and offshore wind energy potential in Bulgaria. It also pinpoints essential policy actions needed to harness this potential while safeguarding power supply security and adhering to the most stringent standards for land use, environmental protection, and biodiversity conservation.

CSD Policy Brief №. 139: The State of Capture: The Risks to Distributive Politics in Southeast Europe

CSD Policy Brief №. 139: The State of Capture: The Risks to Distributive Politics in Southeast Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: state-capture; corruption;

The policy brief underlines the importance of proper governance of public finances, especially in countries with rule of law deficiencies. The analysis notes that intergovernmental transfers in Southeast Europe (SEE) are used to secure or change the political allegiance of mayors, build central and local leaders’ reputations, secure votes and re-election. The problems created by preferential fiscal transfers are further exacerbated by irregularities in local procurement. Statistical evidence indicates that when municipalities are politically aligned with the ruling party at the national level, they tend to receive larger public procurement contracts. The region needs an evidence-gathering mechanism to detect distortions in national and EU spending programmes caused by clientelist allocation of funds.

CSD Policy Brief №. 140: Sanctions Evasion and Derogation on Russian Oil

CSD Policy Brief №. 140: Sanctions Evasion and Derogation on Russian Oil

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-Russian sanctions; energy-dependency from Russia;

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for the EU to develop and implement a coherent policy vision for economic security. However, the current sanctions will not be able to achieve the longer-term objective of strategic decoupling from Russia, as they are designed to allow Russia to continue exporting energy. The oil embargo on Russia presents a critical challenge for European and US authorities seeking to curtail Russian crude and oil product exports. While the sanctions are designed to restrict these exports, several factors are hindering their effective implementation, leaving room for evasion. There is an urgent need to strengthen the implementation and enforcement of the oil sanctions to ensure that crude oil and fuel products are not delivered to customers by Russia-linked third parties such as newly registered oil trading companies with unclear ultimate beneficial ownership and existing global commodity traders exploiting loopholes that mask the origin of their oil and oil products. The following analysis is based on a joint investigation between CSD, Global Witness and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which highlight key issues related to sanctions evasion and the strategic decoupling from Russian oil, with a particular focus on the case of Lukoil. It lays out some targeted policy strategies for closing the governance gaps allowing Russia to continue earning billions in profits from selling energy across the world and financing the war in Ukraine.

CSD Policy Brief №. 141: Countering WMD Hybrid Threats and Malign Interference in the Black Sea Region

Политически брифинг № 141 на CSD: ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЕ НА ХИБРИДНИТЕ ЗАПЛАХИ ОТ НЕКОНВЕНЦИОНАЛНИ ОРЪЖИЯ В ЧЕРНОМОРСКИЯ РЕГИОН

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

Keywords: hybrid war;

This policy brief examines Russia’s renewed interest in unconventional weapons as a means of power projection which includes the use of state-sponsored targeted assassinations involving hard-to-detect chemical, biological, or radioactive substances. The Kremlin uses disinformation campaigns that exploit issues related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the countries in the Black Sea region as a form of cognitive warfare designed to advance Russia’s geopolitical agenda by preying on public anxieties. Black Sea regional security cooperation, strategic engagement with EU and NATO partners, and enhanced institutional capacity at the national level to combat media capture and disinformation are critical for harmonising the efforts to deter and counter the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare strategy and bolster the region’s defence capabilities.

CSD Policy Brief №. 142: Investment Screening for Enhanced Economic Security.

Политически брифинг № 142 на CSD: СКРИНИНГ НА ИНВЕСТИЦИИТЕ ЗА ПОВИШАВАНЕ НА ИКОНОМИЧЕСКАТА СИГУРНОСТ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The concept of economic security has rapidly grown in popularity in recent years, with the rise of global geopolitical competition, and in particular with Russia’s weaponization of its oil and gas supplies to Europe to aid its war of aggression against Ukraine. Based on these concerns and taking inspiration from its Member States, the EU refocused its efforts from developing a common set of coordination instruments, such as investment screening, sanctions and anti-money laundering, to setting out a strategy on economic security based on three main policy strands – promoting competitiveness, protecting ourselves and partnering with others. // In Bulgaria, persistent rule of law deficits, low policy and administrative capacity, capital scarcity, and low investment attractiveness compounded by a tradition of unchecked investments from authoritarian regimes and offshore havens have led to the country becoming one of Europe’s most vulnerable economies to malign foreign influence and corrosive capital inflows. Although the government has recently taken steps to implement the EU’s FDI Screening Regulation and a draft law for introducing a national screening mechanism is pending second reading in parliament, the country still remains one of the two EU Member States without such a mechanism and institutional practice in place. Beside speeding up the process of introducing the screening mechanism, Bulgaria urgently needs to reassess its economic security policy and adopt a national economic security strategy with concrete measures to identify and mitigate potential risks, a clear definition of responsible authorities and their tasks, and designation of a focal point to coordinate their activities.

CSD Policy Brief №. 143: Energy (In)Security and Good Governance in Moldova: Making the Energy Transition Possible.

CSD Policy Brief №. 143: Energy (In)Security and Good Governance in Moldova: Making the Energy Transition Possible.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: enertgy supply in Moldoiwa; anti-Russian sanctions; energy-dependency from Russia; Russia's energy-warfare;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its weaponization of energy supply, which precipitated the global energy crisis, has impacted Eastern European countries the worst. Moldova has been among the most vulnerable and worst affected states as it lacks sufficient local energy resources and depends on the import of fossil fuels and electricity, largely from Russia. The low levels of energy security have resulted in extreme price volatility, insufficient supply, and widespread energy poverty.Moldova has actively pursued the diversification of electricity and natural gas supply by bringing in alternative deliveries from Romania, Ukraine and the LNG terminals on the Aegean coast. However, there is still much to be done by improving energy efficiency in the residential sector. Moldova should also accelerate the EU integration process by focusing on key anti-corruption measures for limiting the political interference in the management of state-owned energy companies and increasing the financial transparency of regulatory decisions. This analysis aims at elaborating the nexus between the Russian economic influence and the energy security challenges facing Moldova. The assessment identifies targeted recommendations to accelerate the country’s full energy market diversification, the improvement of the governance of state-owned energy companies and a closer policy alignment with the EU energy and climate objectives.

CSD Policy Brief №. 144: The conquered State: In Search of Anti-Corruption Results

Политически брифинг № 144 на CSD: ЗАВЛАДЯНАТА ДЪРЖАВА: В ТЪРСЕНЕ НА АНТИКОРУПЦИОННИ РЕЗУЛТАТИ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

The escalating geopolitical tensions that led to increasing uncertainty around the world and to the devastating wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, threatens the development of democracy and well - that management. The challenges to establishment ven principles of the international community from member country of the UN Security Council as Russia and China encourage authoritarian and ptocratic regimes in their struggle against democratic tization and the rule of law. On this one way the action of multilaterals is weakened anti-corruption agreements such as the Convention of the United Nations against corruption, the OECD Convention on combating bribery of foreign officials of international trade transactions, as well as undermining the standards of rule of law in the expansion of the European Union.

CSD Policy Brief №. 145: Fast Tracking Green Financing. Removing Financial Barriers to Decentralisation and Democratisation of The Energy Transition in Bulgaria

CSD Policy Brief №. 145: Fast Tracking Green Financing. Removing Financial Barriers to Decentralisation and Democratisation of The Energy Transition in Bulgaria

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Developing renewable energy projects like solar PV and wind farms demands substantial capital for land, equipment, and infrastructure. Yet, for households and small businesses, becoming prosumers is even tougher due to limited funding and knowledge. Overcoming financial barriers is crucial for citizens and communities to transition into active renewable energy investors and producers. In Bulgaria, reliable access to finance is even more vital for renewable energy investments. Self-sustaining models are needed, where profits feed back into communities, fostering growth and resilience. However, regulatory hurdles like inconsistent laws and grid expansion costs hinder investment. Market volatility further deters banks from funding renewable projects. This analysis examines barriers to financing decentralized renewable projects in Bulgaria and suggests policies and financial tools to lower costs and support small-scale projects.

CSD Policy Brief №. 146: Phasing Out Russian Gas in Europe

CSD Policy Brief №. 146: Phasing Out Russian Gas in Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-Russian sanctions;

More than two years after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the decoupling from the Russian energy dependence remains elusive. Russia can still legally sell natural gas around the world. Despite efforts by major European natural gas consumers like Germany and Italy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, it still accounts for 15% of the EU’s total gas imports, just behind the United States (19%) and ahead of north Africa (14%). Natural gas flows through TurkStream, which delivers Russian gas to Greece, the Western Balkans, and Hungary, are rising, thus making it the largest source of Russian gas exports to Europe. To cut off the Kremlin from EU-generated gas profits and deprive it of its energy weapon after the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine ceases at the end of 2024, the EU must halt Russian gas transit through the European expansion of TurkStream. The current policy brief provides a comprehensive overview of Russia’s continued presence on the European gas market and proposes a complete phaseout of Russian gas from 2025.

CSD Policy Brief №. 147: Transforming Europe’s Media Landscape.

CSD Policy Brief №. 147: Transforming Europe’s Media Landscape.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The online migration of the last two decades has contributed to the collapsing business models of news media outlets. Many of these outlets, slow to adapt the models they have relied on for centuries, have crumbled – leading to increased amount of territory not covered by local news, so called ‘news deserts.’ In a post-truth era of increased political polarisation, a healthy, plural landscape of independent news media outlets serves as an important first-line in the defence of democratic ideals. If the European Union is to prevent further erosion of democratic values, news outlets must have an ecosystem in which they can survive. The European Commission must strive to implement innovative legislative measures to combat declining readership and falling advertising revenues in the media sector. It should increase the effectiveness of financial support to the industry by blending it with strategic private investments. Support should be provided through wider range of programs. A broad structural transformation may be required to ensure the optimum effectiveness of the Commissions initiatives.

CSD Policy Brief №. 148: Gendered Disinformation Targeting Ukrainian Women Refugees in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief №. 148: Gendered Disinformation Targeting Ukrainian Women Refugees in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: hybrid war;

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuously exposes Bulgaria’s susceptibility to Kremlin’s propaganda machine, an understudied aspect of which is the gender dimension. Gendered disinformation involves misogynistic abuse and violence that employs false and misleading information to target individuals based on their gender identity. Female refugees and migrants from Ukraine have been specifically targeted by these campaigns, with narratives that hyper-sexualize, dehumanize, and undermine their contributions to society. By shaping perceptions of gender roles, disinformation contributes to a hostile environment that erodes solidarity and support for both refugees and female residents from abroad. Furthermore, despite Bulgaria’s legal obligations to support refugees, the inconsistent implementation of these measures, especially in disinformation-prone areas, highlights the real-world impact of these narratives. This analysis examines the disinformation campaigns which exploit themes of sex, gender, and national identity to marginalize and exclude women and minorities, thereby reinforcing misogyny, homophobia, and transphobia within society.

CSD Policy Brief №. 149: Mission Possible: Unblocking Clean Energy Transformation.

CSD Policy Brief №. 149: Mission Possible: Unblocking Clean Energy Transformation.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Bulgaria must complete key energy sector reforms and boost investment in low-carbon solutions in order to decarbonise its economy and improve its energy security and independence. However, the country lags behind in supporting the deployment of offshore wind, decentralised electricity generation, grid modernisation and flexible storage solutions. The first key step to promote these technologies is the development of a robust regulatory framework, which will demonstrate long-term political commitment and provide predictability to investors. At the same time, Bulgaria must complete the liberalisation of the electricity market to unlock its renewable energy potential and accelerate coal phaseout. This policy brief highlights the importance of supporting low-carbon technologies in Bulgaria, identifies the main regulatory, financial, and technical barriers to their deployment and provides specific policy recommendations to support the sector.

CSD Policy Brief №. 150: Supporting Media Freedom in Europe.

CSD Policy Brief №. 150: Supporting Media Freedom in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Europe’s news industry faces significant challenges. The shift to online platforms has disrupted traditional business models, creating “news deserts.” Declining distribution and advertising revenues, alongside sector financialization, have left outlets vulnerable to external pressures. The European Commission could strengthen media resilience by combining public funding with targeted private investments, leveraging its experience with blended finance tools. Addressing legislative and regulatory gaps to improve the effectiveness of media and democracy promotion measures is crucial. Engaging Big Tech through mechanisms like a bargaining code or tax would help fund media freedom efforts. Additionally, increased financial support for tech transitions in the media sector and structural reforms within institutions, such as the European Board for Media Services, would reinforce media sustainability. Collaborating with civil society and international partners could further enhance media freedom and sustainability.

CSD Policy Brief №. 151: Offshore Wind in The Black Sea. Towards A Strategic Legal Framework in Bulgaria

CSD Policy Brief №. 151: Offshore Wind in The Black Sea. Towards A Strategic Legal Framework in Bulgaria

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Black see offshore wind-energy;

Offshore wind in the Black Sea will stimulate low-carbon economic development, the uptake of competitive and secure energy production and reduce the region's dependence on fossil fuel imports. Bulgaria should finally catch up and adopt offshore wind as part of the country's long-term strategic energy policy framework and start developing the sector. A dedicated special law on offshore wind in the Black Sea would be the optimal approach to avoid potential conflicts with other existing legislative acts and secondary legislation. The law would coordinate the competencies of the authorities that govern the different phases of offshore wind project implementation opening up market competition and attracting investment interest from the most mature European offshore wind markets. This policy brief outlines the necessary strategic framework for offshore wind development in Bulgaria and the necessary policy measures that are necessary to overcome the current regulatory, financial, and technical barriers to the sector's development.