Series:Center for the Study of Democracy - CSD Policy Briefs

CSD Policy Brief No. 23: Energy Efficiency in Bulgaria: the Case for Market‐Based Approach and Transparency

CSD Policy Brief No. 23: Energy Efficiency in Bulgaria: the Case for Market‐Based Approach and Transparency

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Overall, the Bulgarian economy seems to have completed the transition from heavy industry to less energy intensive light industry1 and thus already picked the low hanging fruit of natural gains in efficiency. The country is probably at a point, as some experts2 argue, from which onwards any additional gain in efficiency will have to be attained through advances in technologies of energy production, conversion, transportation, and use which will call for cost‐effective approach and a strong incentive system. At the user end this means fleet replacement by installing more efficient appliances, buying less thirsty vehicles, improving insulation of buildings, lighting improvements, and deploying more efficient production technologies and procedures. In conversion, thermal power plants, boilers, and a plethora of other hardware devices will have to be replaced or updated, along with production methods and procedures. In energy transportation, smart grids, more efficient district heating nets and other solutions will have to be implemented. To execute the tasks, extensive investment in energy efficiency will have to be made over the next decade.

CSD Policy Brief No. 24: Introducing Organised Crime Threat Assessment

CSD Policy Brief No. 24: Introducing Organised Crime Threat Assessment

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Organised Crime;

MAIN POINTS * Introducing of EU-wide best practices of producing on a periodic basis of national reports assessing the threats from organised crime, which will facilitate the daily and long term activities of Bulgarian law-enforcement institutions. * Establishing of a permanent mechanism of institutional interaction, which will give full use of the instruments of publicprivate partnership, aiming at widening transparency in law-enforcement activities. * The application of modern methods for operative information gathering and analysis of the activities and finances of the organised criminal groups, in addition to the illegal markets under their controls. * Taking measures to facilitate the exchange of data between Bulgarian lawenforcement entities and between them and their EU counterparts in accordance with the Stockholm Program of the European Council.

CSD Policy Brief No. 25: The Green Element in the Sustainable Energy Policies of Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 25: The Green Element in the Sustainable Energy Policies of Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Since the definition of the term by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission) in 1987, ‘sustainability’ has become one of the most prominent political terms in the international affairs to rule agendas for decades ahead. The series of relevant meetings on the issue of sustainable development and climate change in Rio (1992), Kyoto (1997) and Johannesburg (2002) and Copenhagen (2009), as well as the overwhelming proliferation of green organisations and advocacy groups in Europe, have predisposed the European Union to take the vanguard role in the global effort for more sustainable and greener development. One of the first expected steps to take in that direction was to devise a sound and comprehensive legislation structure governing the European and national energy and environment protection policies in the way that they follow the principles of sustainable development, or namely avoiding degradation of natural resources, protection of the environment, promotion of equitable sharing of the products and resources of prospering economy to all groups of society. // Main purpose of this study is to review and discuss the development of regulation at EU level to guide corresponding national legislation and policies designed to address the challenges of sustainable development, notably those on the environment dimension and as regards to the most relevant economic sector – energy. The paper will briefly examine the development of the idea and strategy for sustainable development in Europe over time, the concrete EU legislation and instruments to facilitate national policies to support such development.

CSD Policy Brief No. 26: Organised Crime and Corruption: National Characteristics and Policies of the EU Member‐States

CSD Policy Brief No. 26: Organised Crime and Corruption: National Characteristics and Policies of the EU Member‐States

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Organised Crime;Corruption;

MAIN POINTS 􀂾 Based on a statistical analysis of 14 indicators (measuring corruption, organized crime, the effectiveness of government, macro‐economic indicators and the grey economy), seven clusters of countries emerged. Starting from the cluster where the manifestation of corruption and organized crime was weakest, the clusters were: (1) Denmark, Finland and Sweden; (2) Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and the UK; (3) France; (4) Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal; (5) Czech Republic, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Malta and Slovakia; (6) Italy; and (7) Bulgaria, Poland and Romania. 􀂾 Political corruption is organised crime’s most powerful tool and local level political and administrative authorities represent the most likely criminal groups’s target. In the case of police corruption the main reasons why organised crime uses corruption are to obtain information on investigations, operations, or competitors, (FR, NL, UK) and protection for continued illegal activities. In the majority of Member States, organised crime targets the judiciary, particularly the courts, much less than the police or politicians. Corruption of customs officers mainly helps organised crime avoid detection of smuggled goods, avoid investigations. 􀂾 Among the recommendations addressed to the European Commission is undertaking steps to widen the information and analysis tools such as benchmarking indicators to measure the threats from organized crime and corruption, and to assess the impact of measures to curb these threats. Another recommendation is to develop detailed guidelines to encompass a broad range of criminal offenses under the definition of corruption in national Penal Codes. 􀂾 EU Member‐states are urged to further develop their institutional capacities in order to conduct impact evaluation of measures against organized crime and corruption, and to build public‐private partnerships to facilitate anti‐corruption cooperation.

CSD Policy Brief No. 27: Developing an EU Competence in Measuring

CSD Policy Brief No. 27: Developing an EU Competence in Measuring Corruption

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Corruption;

MAIN POINTS * The anti‐corruption reporting mechanism that the European Commission is intending to introduce should be complemented by regular measurement of the incidence of corruption. Well tested methodologies already exist. * Having its own facility for measuring corruption would allow the EU to: * be credible in its assessments, especially of candidate countries; * be capable of making relevant recommendations * carry out corruption risk assessments * broaden its policy options against corruption (currently focused on law enforcement). * The Bulgarian experience in measuring corruption would be particularly relevant in the development of such a facility. The Corruption Monitoring System, implemented by the CSD, generates data on the incidence of corrupt transactions and assesses corruption risk in the various public and corporate sectors.

CSD Policy Brief No. 28: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria after the Economic Crisis

CSD Policy Brief No. 28: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria after the Economic Crisis

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: grey economy;

MAIN POINTS 􀂾 The hidden economy has grown among businesses, but declined among the population. The social cost of the economic crisis is a declining employment among the groups with the lowest qualifications. * There is a rise in cases involving tax evasion, avoidance of customs, fees, and excise duties, as well as VAT fraud. As businesses suffer through the recession, they become more likely to not declare part of their revenue and economic activities. * There is a slight decrease in the incidence of undeclared payments ‐ in 2010, 11.6 % of the population reported having received a remuneration higher than the one stated in the contract with their primary employer. 􀂾 Governmental measures to reduce the hidden economy do not seem to have produced the desired results. 􀂾 The general economic situation and development are more important for the dynamics of the hidden economy than government control measures.

CSD Policy Brief No. 29: Public Trust in the Criminal Justice System – An Instrument for Penal Policy Assessment

CSD Policy Brief No. 29: Public Trust in the Criminal Justice System – An Instrument for Penal Policy Assessment

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

MAIN CONCLUSIONS: ››› Of all the EU member states, Bulgaria is the country whose citizens are the least satisfied with the performance of the main government institutions. ››› Trust in the main institutions concerned with criminal justice in Bulgaria – the police and courts, is low and has remained practically unchanged over the last decade. At the end of 2010, a positive evaluation of police performance was given by less than half of the country’s adult population and barely one in five gave a favorable opinion of the courts. ››› The low public trust in the courts and police can also be accounted for by the high level of corruption in these institutions. ››› The low trust in the courts and police is conducive to public attitudes of insecurity. Society begins to perceive crime as an inherent part of reality rather than a problem that can actually be addressed. ››› A state’s penal policy can only produce results if sufficient attention is paid to trust, legitimacy, and security. It is therefore recommended to adopt a system of indicators for the assessment of public trust in criminal justice in Bulgaria. ››› These indicators are an instrument for improved formulation of the problems faced by criminal justice institutions and for more effective monitoring of changes in public attitudes. This would make it possible to focus the attention on strategic issues and long-term policies in the area of security and justice not only on the national, but also on the European level. In order to ensure comparability of the impact assessment of various implemented policies, it is recommended to adopt uniform indicators for measuring trust in criminal justice in the European Union and the member states, which should take place within the timeframe of the Stockholm Programme (2010-2014).

CSD Policy Brief No. 30: Practices and Forms of Cooperation between Customs and Border Guards in the European Union

CSD Policy Brief No. 30: Practices and Forms of Cooperation between Customs and Border Guards in the European Union

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Schengen; border control;

KEY FINDINGS ››› In Member States there are various forms of cooperation between customs and border guards: Strategic planning, communication and exchange of information, coordination of workflow at border crossing points (BSPs), joint risk analysis, joint criminal investigations, joint special operations and control outside BCPs („blue” and „green” borders), use of joint mobile groups, joint professional training. ››› Cooperation aims to enhance effectiveness of securing the external borders of the EU and the Customs Union, as well as efficiency that makes best use of the limited financial resources of the two institutions. ››› Cooperation challenges that customs and border guards face comprise legal and operational obstacles, different institutional cultures, and political pressure over the management bodies of the two institutions. ››› Bulgaria falls into a group of Member States where the level of cooperation between customs and border guards is most limited and often characterized by mistrust and competition. ››› The Government of Bulgaria, the Customs Agency and the Border Police should adopt best cooperation practices in order to increase the security of the external borders of the European Union.

CSD Policy Brief No. 40: Bulgaria’s Energy Security Risk Index

CSD Policy Brief No. 40: Bulgaria’s Energy Security Risk Index

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

MAIN POINTS ››› Energy security is of critical importance to Bulgaria. The biggest identified threat to Bulgarian national security is poverty, and in particular energy poverty. Bulgaria’s non-transparent energy sector seriously undermines the country’s economic development. Establishing regular sound monitoring mechanisms on energy security could be key for adequate policy-making in the area. ››› The Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk Indicator (IESRI), developed in 2012 by the Institute for 21st Century Energy at the American Chamber of Commerce shows that since 1980, Bulgaria has had one of the worst energy security risk index scores both nominally and compared to the OECD averages. Its scores over the period averaged about 158% higher than those for the OECD. ››› Bulgaria’s energy security risk index increased since 2010. This recent deterioration relative to OECD averages is based on the energy expenditure volatility of the Bulgarian economy that according to IESRI has increased more than 10 times in the last 3 years (since 2009), reaching in 2012 one of the highest levels since 1980). ››› Among the main risk factors to Bulgaria’s energy security is its high dependence on fossil fuels import, in particular in the gas sector. The very high concentration of the Bulgarian gas market (monopoly of supply and distribution) provides ample opportunities for rent-seeking. Bulgaria’s involvement in various national, smaller regional, and large international projects can reduce the risks to its energy security if it is based on clear-cut prioritization of preferred options following sound and transparent cost-benefit analysis.

CSD Policy Brief No. 41: Crime Trends 2012 – 2013

CSD Policy Brief No. 41: Crime Trends 2012 – 2013

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

KEY POINTS ››› Crime rates increased in 2012 compared to 2011 - 15.4 per cent of the population compared to 10.3 per cent, respectively, were victims of crime. The number of victims and the overall number of crimes increased both. ››› Growth of unregistered crimes: for a third consecutive year the share of victims who do not report crimes to the police increased. ››› Growth in thefts: despite the continuing decline in serious crimes such as murder and vehicle theft, there is an increase in crimes against property of the citizens. ››› Victims of crime in South Central and South Eastern regions of the country are least likely to report crimes to the police. These areas are also characterized by high levels of crime victimisation.

CSD Policy Brief No. 42: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria in 2013

CSD Policy Brief No. 42: The Hidden Economy in Bulgaria in 2013

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English,Bulgarian

Accurate understanding of the dynamics of the hidden economy is essential for improving public and private sector management. In the case of Bulgaria, the high level of hidden economic activities signals many deficiencies in the functioning of the public institutions and the rule of law, and undermines the economic development of the country. Limiting the grey economy ought to be an issue of imminent priority for policy makers. The recent unparalleled global growth of digitalization of economic activities provides ample opportunities to reduce hidden cash flows and directly contribute to positive economic development of the country. Comprehensive, sustained reforms focusing on improvements in market and administrative efficiency are needed to facilitate the process of economic convergence and limit the negative effects of the hidden economy in Bulgaria.

CSD Policy Brief No. 43: Corruption and Anti-Corruption in Bulgaria (2012 – 2013)

CSD Policy Brief No. 43: Corruption and Anti-Corruption in Bulgaria (2012 – 2013)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English,Bulgarian

Keywords: Corruption;

The corruption trends indices for Bulgaria in 2013 are calculated through the Corruption Monitoring System (CMS) developed by the Center for the Study of Democracy and Vitosha Research. The results show that administrative corruption among the population in Bulgaria over the past two years remains practically unchanged. On average, over the period 2012 – 2013, 14% of the adult population has been involved in corruption transactions at least once per year.

CSD Policy Brief No. 94: TurkStream and the Russian Economic Influence in Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 94: TurkStream and the Russian Economic Influence in Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia has sought to undermine common EU energy rules and monopolize markets by promoting two politically driven gas projects: Nord Stream II and TurkStream. The EU push for gas diversification has fallen prey to the private interests of European energy companies, financial institutions, construction firms and industrial behemoths that have benefited from Gazprom-led projects. In this policy brief, the Center for the Study of Democracy sheds light on how the TurkStream gas pipeline perpetuates the CEE dependence on Russian gas amid unnecessary infrastructure spending diverting scarce resources away from productive investments. The project blocks the diversification of gas markets, including by preventing cheaper LNG supply to compete with Russian gas in Europe. The brief calls for a more active role for the EU and the U.S. in developing a robust monitoring and enforcement mechanism to discontinue energy projects that might undermine the security of supply, energy source diversification and the integration of the EU energy markets in its different regions.

CSD Policy Brief No. 92: Lost in transition: Bulgaria and the European Green Deal

CSD Policy Brief No. 92: Lost in transition: Bulgaria and the European Green Deal

Author(s): Martin Vladimirov,Radostina Primova / Language(s): English

The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are supposed to be the member states’ roadmap for achieving the EU’s 2050 ambitious carbon neutrality goal. The policy measures within these strategic documents are meant to reconcile the tension between past path dependency on carbon intensive national energy sectors and economies and the drive towards new green technologies. The Bulgarian NECP reveals moderate progress on energy efficiency, renewable energy and regional power market integration goals. Yet it does not build a strong foundation for enabling a transformational policy path until 2050. Neither does it clearly outline the spill-over effects from the energy sector into all aspects of the economy and society. This policy brief analyses the main elements of the final version of the Bulgarian NECP and proposes targeted policy measures on how to better implement it over the next decade.

CSD Policy Brief No. 98: Capture Proofing Media in Southeast Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 98: Capture Proofing Media in Southeast Europe

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The emerging democracies in Southеast Europe (SEE) represent one of the most vulnerable regions in Europe to foreign malign influence. On the one hand, domestic developments in SEE states related to democratic backsliding and the erosion of civic and political liberties have fed into low governance standards and public disenchantment. On the other hand, foreign authoritarian states, primarily Russia and increasingly China, have intensified their sharp power influence efforts directed at further derailing faith in liberal democracy and presenting authoritarianism as a more viable political alternative. This brief presents the policy recommendations on a comprehensive Transatlantic response to Russia and China’s media capture influence in Southeast Europe, including EU members Bulgaria and Croatia as well as EU aspirants Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo. It reviews the scope, means and reach of Russia’s sharp power influence through the phenomenon of media capture in Southeast Europe and proposes a framework for addressing governance gaps in the Balkans, which could help build resilience to foreign malign influence in the region.

CSD Policy Brief No. 95: Now or never: will Bulgaria catch the last train to green economic recovery?

CSD Policy Brief No. 95: Now or never: will Bulgaria catch the last train to green economic recovery?

Author(s): Radostina Primova / Language(s): English

The twin goals of green and digital transition are at the heart of the next EU budget-and-recovery package 2021-2027. With enhanced climate conditionality, EU spending priorities will be tightly linked to EU climate policies. The endorsement of the more ambitious EU 2030 emissions reduction target of 55% necessitate a coherent coal phase out strategy to be put in place in Bulgaria as early as possible.Yet, both the draft national operational programmes and the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan of Bulgaria lack a comprehensive assessment and long term perspective on how to best mobilise the available EU funds. They need to better demonstrate significant emission reductions across different sectors. The focus of the Plan and the operational programmes should move away from large infrastructure projects (including nuclear and gas) to providing resources for more decentralised sustainable energy projects, tackling energy poverty and supply diversification.

CSD Policy Brief No. 93: Mapping Policy Options for Renewable Energy Communities in Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 93: Mapping Policy Options for Renewable Energy Communities in Europe

Author(s): Radostina Primova,Christophe Rolland,Todor Galev / Language(s): English

Consumer (co-)ownership in renewable energy (RE) is an essential ingredient of the overall success of the transition to a low-carbon economy and society in Europe. When consumers acquire ownership in RE projects, they can become prosumers generating a part of the energy they consume. Thus, reducing their overall energy costs, while at the same time potentially generating additional income, through the sale of excess production. Yet, becoming a prosumer requires availability of time, headspace and access to substantial up-front investment, as well as access to information and knowledge of the various possible options. This creates burdens for many EU citizens, especially vulnerable groups, including women, who are underrepresented in technological industries, and those who are of low-income, energy poor or low-educated.Based upon the findings and conclusions from recent research on the economic, social, technological and governance enabling conditions and barriers in promoting prosumership and renewable energy communities in Europe, an international team of researchers and practitioners is endeavouring to facilitate the co-ownership in RE. It has done so by piloting a new financial model, the Consumer Stock Ownership Plan, in Italy, the Czech Republic and Germany with numerous European cities following.As a financial instrument, the Consumer Stock Ownership Plan brings several advantages with regard to the set-up of Renewable Energy Communities. It also provides consumers with flexible participation, external financing and long-term loan repayment, thereby encouraging the engagement of low-income households.

CSD Policy Brief No. 90: A Comprehensive Model for Illicit Cigarette Market Assessment

CSD Policy Brief No. 90: A Comprehensive Model for Illicit Cigarette Market Assessment

Author(s): Atanas Rusev,Mariyan Sabev / Language(s): English

The model for illicit cigarette market assessment at regional level is a comprehensive approach to analyse the combined effect of two types of factors: the ones linked to law-enforcement bodies' performance and the region-specific drivers and barriers to the illicit trade in tobacco products. It was developed drawing on police and industry data from 4 countries – Bulgaria, Italy, Greece and Romania. The model not only allows to identify regions which are at high risk with regard to illicit trade in tobacco products, but also helps identify the measures needed to curb this illegal market.

CSD Policy Brief No. 89: Russia’s Economic Influence in the Balkans: Tackling Kremlin’s Sharp Power

CSD Policy Brief No. 89: Russia’s Economic Influence in the Balkans: Tackling Kremlin’s Sharp Power

Author(s): Martin Vladimirov,Ruslan Stefanov / Language(s): English

The weakening of the EU gravitational pull leaves a power vacuum in the region that is readily filled in by authoritarian powers such as Russia and China. They are taking advantage of the democratic backsliding and the widespread state capture among dysfunctional institutions to expand their economic and political influence. This policy brief zooms in on Russia estimating its economic footprint in Southeastern Europe following the imposition of EU and US sanctions in 2014 and showcases the most important elements of the Russian strategy in the region. Russian economic influence has declined since the imposition of U.S. and EU sanctions in 2014, but Russian companies still control between 5 and 10% of the regional economy, including strategic companies such as the largest refineries, fuel distribution networks, gas transmission and storage facilities, telecoms and retail chains. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has amplified its influence and yielded sharp power in the region through employing all instruments from its playbook, such as supporting mainstream and fringe political parties, employing media, cultural and religious ties, sponsoring civil society activities, and pulling former security services’ strings.

CSD Policy Brief No. 88: Energy Transition Governance for Better Energy Security in Europe

CSD Policy Brief No. 88: Energy Transition Governance for Better Energy Security in Europe

Author(s): Todor Galev / Language(s): English

The European Green Deal pledge of the incoming European Commission confirms that energy transition and the European Energy Union will remain centre stage in European policy-making. The combination of new regulatory and technological innovations, the deepening of the interactions between energy and climate policies, and the corresponding shifts in individual and collective behaviour opens new opportunities for business and society to benefit from the energy transition. But they also provoke new governance challenges to both policy makers and citizens. The advent of the prosumer, the energy producing consumer, as a foundation of successful energy transition, requires profound changes at the EU, national, local, and household level. In particular, the need for increasing the social acceptability and public awareness of energy transition policies, puts new emphasis on the energy security four-fold challenge of availability, reliability, affordability and sustainability. Solving this complex challenge requires understanding of the factors influencing household prosumption choices, in the first place. But it also calls for adequate energy transition policy choices and effective tools to steer quickly through the changing energy security landscape.Europe, as a large energy consumer faces different choices from individual member states. Navigating these choices has become more complex and challenging amid continuing environmental challenges, the souring of US – China trade relations and the resurgent Russia confrontation. Consumers have grown more concerned with the rising cost of energy transition, in particular in lower income member states in Central and Eastern Europe. Russia’s strategic political projects in gas supply like Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream have divided the European Commission and member states. Similarly, LNG terminals and shale gas development have attracted supporters and opponents, with no common European policy in sight. New nuclear power plants such as Paks II in Hungary, Hinckley Point in the UK, Belene in Bulgaria have underscored the importance of designing and implementing socially inclusive and sustainable policies alongside the economic benefits and energy security.